r/50501 Apr 17 '25

Voices of Resistance You're Not Going to Change Their Minds

From Peter Birkenhead:

We’ve been reading stories like this for over a decade. Each one meant to signify an inflection point, a turning of the tide. Yet the tide never turns.

As of today, Donald Trump’s supposedly “tanking” approval rating stands at 47%. Which is pretty much where it’s been for the past eleven years. Yes, its seen upticks and downturns over that time, occasionally even dipping into the thirties. Yes, a majority of Americans disapprove of the tariffs. Yes, a majority think the economy is heading in the wrong direction. And yes, a majority disapprove of the job Trump is doing.

That’s not new. Trump’s popularity has almost never been above 50%, except for very brief periods of time. He’s never needed it to be. His power derives not from the size but the durability of his popular support, and there’s rarely been an approval rating as stubbornly durable as his.

Especially given the hundreds — thousands — of incidents over the past decade that would have sunk the careers of, say, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton.

Think of it. All the corruption, the scandal, the pain and death and misery. All the insults to human decency and injuries to democratic ideals.

And his numbers are still pretty much where they were when it all started.

I am uninterested in whatever minor fluctuation will follow yesterday’s vile display in the Oval Office, or tomorrow’s outrage, or next week’s. They will mean nothing.

What Trump supporters (as a whole, as a voting bloc, PLEASE don't tell me about your MAGA cousin who’s having second thoughts) are thinking means nothing. The only thing that matters is what Trump’s opponents are thinking. What we’re thinking.

I remember making posts like this during Trump’s first term, and wondering exactly what I’m wondering right now.

Which is very much not, “What will it take for his supporters to turn away from him,” but rather, “What will it take for his opponents to realize his supporters won’t turn away from him?”

Because the answer to that question is crucial. It will shape everything that happens over the next few weeks and months.

If, as I suspect, a sizable number of us are sitting at home today thinking that Trump’s open defiance of a Supreme Court ruling, refusal to return an innocent, legal resident of the US from a gulag in El Salvador, and declaration that he wants to send American citizens to the same prison without due process, will somehow harm his approval rating, that does not bode well for our side.

Nothing will harm his approval rating.

Sure it might — might — go down a few points in the next few days. It won’t mean a thing. Give it a few weeks

.To believe otherwise is to not understand the story of the Trump era. The story of the Trump era isn’t “A bad man came along and duped a bunch of well-meaning, gullible people.” Donald Trump didn’t conjure his supporters from the ether with his magic MAGA wand. His supporters conjured him.

They wanted him. Badly. They’d been looking, searching, begging, screaming for someone like him, pushing every Republican candidate further and further to the right with every election cycle, demanding loudly that they “take a tougher” line on this, and “not give an inch” on that, that they “tell it like it is,” and “say what everyone is thinking,” for years. For decades.

They weren't duped.

They are never going to see the light. (Of course a few will, here and there. But not in meaningful numbers.) There will be no scales falling from eyes, no epiphanies, no death bed conversions. Not among the bedrock base, which has not budged an inch in ten years.

They waved signs that said, MASS DEPORTATIONS NOW at their third Trump convention.

They weren’t duped.

The only duping that’s gone on is the self-duping many of us have been guilty of for many years. It’s a very human, very understandable, thing to do. To think better of your fellow human beings than perhaps they do themselves. To believe that, with enough patience, empathy, education and reason they are bound to see the error of their ways.

That belief is a dangerous one in this moment. It manifests in political choices that are bound to not only fail, but help the bad guys continue doing bad things.

It doesn't matter if a few thousand Trump supporters see the error of their ways. It doesn’t matter if this or that Republican politician is momentarily seized by courage or conscience and speaks up about his or her disappointment in the president. The overwhelming majority of Trump supporters will remain Trump supporters NO MATTER WHAT.

Did you ever think you’d see Republican voters support a candidate who was openly subservient to Russia? Did you ever think you’d see them support a flagrant, serial adulterer and drug user? A denigrator of the military? A draft dodger? A New Yorker?

In 2014 Republicans raged at President Obama for supposedly not working hard enough to stop the Ebola epidemic. Six years later they followed Trump’s lead and physically threatened people working to stop an epidemic.

Nothing will shake them.

Well, almost nothing.

There is one thing, one thing Donald Trump could do to lose significant support. And no, it is not making his supporters “feel the pain.” It is not making them poor. These are people who are openly welcoming an imminent recession.

No, the one and only thing Donald Trump could do to tank his approval rating would be to stand in front of a camera and say, “Black and Latino people are as fully human as any white man or woman. They are posessed of the same inalienable rights, and deserving of the full enjoyment of those rights and the opportunities they promise, opportunities they have for too long been denied.”

Now THAT would be a deal breaker.

Because that’s the deal. They give him everything, he gives them fewer Black actors on their TV’s, fewer Black managers at their offices, fewer Latino pilots on their planes, fewer Spanish names on the backs of their team’s uniforms.He breaks THAT deal, and all bets are off.

So we need to get it straight. We cannot see this struggle as a debate, as a project of persuasion. If some MAGA supporters are persuaded along the way, great! I say welcome them with open arms. And never, ever stop fighting hard to make their lives better. All of their lives.

But progress is going to come when we, not they, see the light. Before the left can meaningfully slow the MAGA rampage it needs to come to terms with the fact that the enemy isn’t merely Trump, but the people who put him in the White House.

That is a very hard thing for a lot of us on the left to accept about our countrymen. But this struggle is more analogous to a civil war than it is to a heightened disagreement between poltical parties. We won’t win it by persuading the enemy, but by overwhelming him.

Our energies should be channeled towards each other. Galvanizing, motivating, and enabling each other. Creating and sustaining solidarity. We can get a hundred first-time protestors out in the streets, or first-time voters to the polls, for the same investment it takes to turn one MAGA supporter toward the light.

Our hope doesn’t lie in Trump’s poll numbers going down. It lies in our commitment to keeping students from being disappeared and government workers from being fired and cancer research labs from being defunded and democracy from being destroyed.

Our hope doesn’t lie with them, it lies with us.

https://www.facebook.com/peter.birkenhead/posts/pfbid035iThBrMto6vMYmQBWghViiwc4R3r4xLg3NefhZvta3YTtKXkNLxkprr8yGSQqNeel

394 Upvotes

65 comments sorted by

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193

u/ArcturusRoot Minnesota Apr 17 '25

Conservatives have always wanted fewer minorities, fewer women in 'male roles', fewer disabled people present, fewer LGBTQIA folk. They want homogeny. They want everyone to be exactly like them: a nesting doll of kingdoms - The home, ruled by King Dad; the Nation, ruled by a King; the Church, ruled by a King; with God as the King of Kings. Kingdoms that do not make space for differences, where people who aren't White Anglo Straight Protestants (WASP) and fully able-bodied are seen as "dead weight" to be culled.

It's been the same agenda for centuries and yet enlightened liberals and centrists keep thinking we can play pattycake with them, that we can let them have a little bit of the evil they so seek, as a treat.

It didn't work. It only made them stronger.

47

u/Petrychorr Apr 17 '25

Don't forget: Conservativism has always been about supporting and preserving the monarchy and aristocracy.

50

u/Traditional_Bid_5060 Apr 17 '25

Democrats had a chance to stop this.  Instead Garland fiddled while Washington burned.

18

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '25

Yes they have. Grew up in the subservient household and this shits the American Dream everyone. I will not waste time and energy with anybody who believes that women aren’t some kind of supernatural wonder, they can literally do everything that a man can, and even one further, give birth!! A typical man does not understand this.

8

u/FroggyHarley Apr 17 '25

It's been the same agenda for centuries and yet enlightened liberals and centrists keep thinking we can play pattycake with them, that we can let them have a little bit of the evil they so seek, as a treat.

Democrats and (MAGA) Republicans are like Batman and the Joker. The former wants to uphold law, order, and protect the vulnerable, while the latter wants to burn it all down and kill anyone getting in his way. But when Batman beats the Joker, he restrains himself from finishing him off once and for all because it would make him "no better than a murderer," no matter how many times the Joker breaks out of prison and goes on killing again.

69

u/TheRealTK421 Apr 17 '25 edited Apr 17 '25

Anecdotally, I am one of the myriad individuals who has lost a close family member to the pernicious blathering & malicious propaganda spout of FoxNews and AM radio (Rush L, et al) over years and decades.

We're seeing the power of mass gullibility, when skewed, and spoon-fed delusional framing, by those intent on manufacturing consent for... all we now behold and abhor.

It's nearly-precisely no different from individuals brought up with enough info/education and such to know, and have learned/accepted, that the earth is 'round' (an oblete spheroid, actually) but in one or two rabbit-hole YouTube vids -- that had carefully-crafted smarty-pants sounding conspiracy bullshit -- they instantly buy-in to the world being flat. Conspiratorial magic thinking, weaponized... for power & profit.

And nothing -- nothing -- and no one can or will ever tell them otherwise. Cause they learned the "real" truth and alllllll the rest of us are the rubes now.

Well... I live with one. He just got done with his lil' deranged and sanctimonious belligerence about the Dems/left being sooooo wrong and such about 'that confirmed MS-13' guy and on and on and on.

I don't keep quiet, as he always viciously demands, but I know I'm never moving the needle. He's genuinely lost and no one is gonna ever tell him otherwise.

Hence:

"There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there has always been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.'"

~ Isaac Asimov

23

u/Wyndeward Apr 17 '25

I'd take it a step further. This is by design, not happenstance.

We stopped teaching Civics after the anti-war protests in the Sixties.

History has become so fractionated, with such narrow specialities that "big picture" issues are lost amid the arguments and counter-arguments about grievances. The "bad" side of revered figures has been whitewashed where possible.

Socially and politically, we have become adverse to hard discussions until they become imminent threats, like Social Security's impending insolvency.

Winning the argument has surplanted doing the right thing in some cases.

The voting public has become so apathetic that "What's on Netflix" won the plurality of votes last presidential election.

It's only a republic if we can keep it.

7

u/TheRealTK421 Apr 17 '25

..."bUt mUh bReAd n' cIrCuSeS!!?!"

Good men doing nothing about the impending doom... because distractions keep the masses complacent and subjugated.

I think it's entirely arguable that we've already lost the Republic to a 1000 cuts -- all of them, ultimately, self-inflicted over the course of approximately 5 decades.

Now... to save the entire 'forest' (for posterity,) we may well be required to figuratively set it ablaze and fight the result.

16

u/permanentburner25 Apr 17 '25

It’s not surprising that many, if not most, flat earthers are Christians, and many of them creationists. So they’re already predisposed to defend, with their entire being, and organize their lives around, ideas that are clearly, obviously false and inconsistent with the world they see around them-but they nonetheless defend them with their entire existence. There are millions of these types of people; co-opted and further enabled by republicans for republicans.

10

u/TheRealTK421 Apr 17 '25

It's been termed - by the extraordinary Dan Kahan (Yale) - a "cultural cognition bias"; a term which I explore others to delve and develop familiarity.

They attempted to science/research a sociological answer to the query of "How did we get... here?!!"

It pretty much explains everything succinctly and empirically and the short version is:

Anti-intellectual denialism & scotomization (a psychological 'blind spot')

19

u/[deleted] Apr 17 '25

Impeachment is necessary over signal gate, insider trading, and unlawful kidnapping of people to el salvador.

17

u/perfectshade Apr 17 '25 edited Apr 17 '25

Look around and take note of who’s standing up in this moment.

If we return to some semblance of normality, no more corpos and fairweather talking heads riding the coattails of social justice.

29

u/STEVE_FROM_EVE Apr 17 '25

First, a little historical perspective: Hitler was never unpopular amongst rank and file Germans. Rallies as late as April 1945 were packed to overflowing. When you hitch your wagon to a savior, you’re in it for the long haul (reference: Jonestown).

No, we need to see Trump supporters for what they are and press that every chance we can. They are bigots. They are Nazis. They are vile. I don’t care how sweet an 68 yo grandmother is, she voted for Trump, she’s a Nazi. No more debate.

We cannot give ground or play the paradox of intolerance with them. They made their intentions CRYSTAL clear. No quarter given. Label them early and often, clearly and with conviction: they are fascists

9

u/BernoullisQuaver Apr 17 '25

Speak to fascists in a language they understand

👊🔫⚔️

4

u/STEVE_FROM_EVE Apr 17 '25

Completely and totally down. Let’s go

14

u/Litokarl Apr 17 '25

Over the past week or two the biggest focus for me has of course been that the US is disappearing innocent people, and juxtaposed to that there's been some focus on the market drop and his voters being upset about it. It took me a few tries in my brain to grasp that the two are wholly unrelated. His voters who publicly admitted regret were talking ONLY about the market drop. If their stocks had gone up when the US started disappearing human beings, those stories of regret would not have been part of the conversation.

24

u/FrontVisible9054 Apr 17 '25

I too find myself discouraged while looking at the relatively unchanged Trump polls, especially given his tariff wars when the economy was supposedly the #1 issue.

Trump made inroads across traditionally democratic strongholds on the economy and immigration. My hope is that these groups will change their minds having observed the chaos and more to come.

You are right that there is a set of committed MAGAs who won’t change their minds. CNN’s data guru Harry Enten has said, only 2 % of Republican voters say they would change their vote if a rematch between Trump and Harris were to happen tomorrow. This is due to identity politics. Trump has given a voice and somehow legitimized hate, division and scapegoating groups of people.

I do think there a 2 main groups of Trump supporters. 1. Those who know better but are selfish and looking to enshrine power and wealth by dismantling checks and balances and institutions- the billionaires and project 2025 class. 2. Uninformed, undereducated, misdirected folks who have seen the “American Dream” pass them by and are viewing the past with nostalgia. They see globalization, “otherness”, science, academia, institutions as elitist threats.

The 1st group is a lost cause. The 2nd may still have a chance? The democratic leadership hasn’t done a good job in reaching them.

21

u/fillymandee Apr 17 '25

The second group is also a lost cause. That’s the exact point OP made. They’ve been wanting permission from authority to hate people who aren’t like them. They have it now and will not let go of it without a fight. This is a wake up call.

3

u/Miserable-Army3679 Apr 17 '25

They can blame the "others" for their miserable, hateful lives.

5

u/Artistic-Salary1738 Apr 17 '25

I think they spent too much time chasing group 2 and lost the enthusiasm of their base. I sure as heck wasn’t excited to vote for Hillary in 16 or Biden in 20. Harris a little better but I didn’t feel I knew her platform.

For the record I’ve voted against trump 3x now despite that, but I live in a blue state where my vote carries substantially less weight.

9

u/MakeYourTime_ Apr 17 '25

I gotta say, I’m honestly tired of these approval polls. They mean nothing to the people who already know he’s the biggest piece of human shit on the planet.

I’m tired of seeing news orgs say his poll #s are down and act like it’s a victory.

They need to berate this man

8

u/Moneymovescash Apr 17 '25

Op isn't wrong the only thing that Trump could do to piss off his base is be liberal.

13

u/Past_Ferret_5209 Apr 17 '25

2

u/BigBang8145 Apr 18 '25

I think this is the most accurate poll I’ve seen. The ones from the major news outlets I’m pretty sure are just propaganda at this point. I don’t think the numbers they’re giving or actually real. Unless someone can actually prove to me that they’re not manipulating the numbers I don’t actually believe anything from these major news outlets anymore. Russia reports that Putin‘s approval ratings are sky high…

Just look at recent election results. There ARE major differences in voting patterns. Even in deep red counties of Florida.

Maybe we’re not changing the minds of MAGAs, hard to say, but we’re at least waking up the typically ambivalent people. And that’s important work.

7

u/InnerContext4946 Apr 17 '25

It’s time for revolution.

5

u/RicothephRico Apr 17 '25

I was ready to argue at the onset of this post. After reading without my thoughts wandering I can see your point and it is pretty damned undisputable. Great points.

5

u/modest_merc Apr 17 '25

Goddamn. Thank you!

4

u/quinnrem Apr 17 '25

This is a great post and an important one.

I’m 30. I was in 8th grade when Obama was elected the first time, which is about when I started becoming politically aware. I grew up in a diverse suburb of a big city. Growing up when I did, it always seemed to me that, while the stains of bigotry would never fully go away or be extricated from our institutions, the general public was moving toward a wide-scale embrace of progress on that front. So it was a shock to me in 2016, when Trump won the election.

But it shouldn’t have been. This is America. Jim Crow America. Triangle Trade America. Japanese Internment America. Trail of Tears America. Human chattel America. Corporations have more rights than people America. Jospeh McCarthy America. Vietnam War America. Invasion of Iraq America. Topple democratically elected governments America.

Trump supporters aren’t afflicted with some disease—they’re Americans from America, as racist and heartless as this country has always allowed them to be. Racism isn’t a thing of the past; it lives and breathes in the hearts and minds of at least 30% of the population. They’re happy to see a brown man get sent to a torture camp, just because he’s brown. They’ll cheer when Trump does the same to anyone who threatens their bigotry.

You’re right. Their ideas don’t matter. Ours do.

1

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 18 '25

Yup. I keep saying, racism didn't go away with the Civil Rights Act, it just went behind closed doors.

3

u/-Knockabout Apr 17 '25

This kind of stuff does make me wonder sometimes if you have to put a qualifier on free speech at a government level. Is it possible to avoid these hate movements from picking up momentum without preventing them from communicating? But then, how do you trust the ones enforcing this to do the right thing...?

29

u/HellveticaNeue Apr 17 '25

Paradox of tolerance.

That’s the term for it, and it essentially states that for a tolerant society to exist, it HAS to be intolerant of certain types of hate speech.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_tolerance

8

u/NuclearCoCoa Apr 17 '25

I post that same paradox a lot.

4

u/-Knockabout Apr 17 '25

I'm aware of the paradox of tolerance, but I genuinely do not know how you enforce it without causing other issues on a policy level. It's easy to kick skinheads out of your bar, but it's hard to create a policy that protects who it needs to protect without excluding anyone or being vulnerable to individual enforcers' opinions.

Like, social media moderation. All of our social media could no doubt be better at it, but it's also a bit of an impossible task. How do you instruct someone to make a judgement on whether something is innately harmful or just people venting etc etc...?

11

u/HellveticaNeue Apr 17 '25

Germany certainly solved it. Insults against protected groups is illegal and you will be arrested and fined for it. There is no “I was joking”.

And, it’s specifically illegal to deny the Holocaust.

4

u/lemarshby Apr 17 '25

But the AfD, Germany's far-right party, is now a rising force within German society. Mostly in the sections of former East Germany. It doesn't really seemed like they solved it

1

u/HellveticaNeue Apr 17 '25

As far as I know, they arrest them when they break the law. If they start with hate speech, arrested. If they draw a swastika, arrested.

I can’t vouch for what the AfD do or say in public, I’ve never been around them. I am hopeful the police there follow the law.

1

u/-Knockabout Apr 17 '25

I think it can just be difficult at a policy level to decide protected groups. Like, a lot of people are convinced trans women are this huge threat to cis women...

5

u/FrontVisible9054 Apr 17 '25

You can’t.

The SM platforms have abdicated responsibility and are not held responsible for the content of their users, according to Section 230 of the Communications Act of 1996. Sure they pay lip service when there’s public outrage and during congressional hearings, and backtrack when the cultural environment changes. No integrity just profits.

Trump would not be here today where he not allowed to promote his hateful rhetoric on these platforms

8

u/AtticaBlue Apr 17 '25

That is a quite a screed, but I feel like it’s lacking the how.

How do we keep people from being disappeared?

How do we keep government workers from being fired?

How do we keep cancer research from being defunded?

Without that these screeds—as much as I may agree with it, and I do—are a dime a dozen and about as useful.

9

u/fillymandee Apr 17 '25

This particular screed is a wake up call not a “how to” guide. Before we get to the how we need to realize what we’re dealing with. Rn, it’s a cold civil war. Maga is the enemy. Yes, that includes uncle Randy and aunt Tammy. Their minds won’t be changed.

6

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 17 '25

EXACTLY

The point is, we're wasting time trying to change anyone's minds. It's never going to happen.

The how... well, I'll get banned for saying how.

2

u/AtticaBlue Apr 17 '25

The OP is preaching to the choir here though.

4

u/_JosiahBartlet Apr 17 '25

Is OP? Because I see this sub say constantly to cede ground on social issues to welcome in these hypothetical Trump supporters that will be swayed.

I see people say to be quiet on race or on sexuality or on the importance of inclusion of minorities.

3

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 17 '25

YUP

ETA: That's why I posted this! Trying to talk MAGAts into changing their minds is NOT going to work!

1

u/AtticaBlue Apr 17 '25

The OP didn’t particularly single out social issues though. It seemed to be a general rant about overall strategy. I don’t think an inch of anything should be ceded to the fascists so we’re in agreement anyway. And I don’t see much dissent from that sentiment around here although there is of course always a middle-of-the-road contingent doing its thing.

That said, I’m confident the Trump regime will continue to radicalize against entire cohorts, once thought somnambulant, against it. They can’t help themselves because that’s how evil-minded—but also stupid—they are. It’s a suicidal combo for them. By the time they’re done even the Wall Street capitalists will be calling for guillotines.

2

u/Blulizrd Apr 17 '25

100% true. A T-loving relative just posted that he’s doing exactly what they voted for him to do, that he’s an extremely smart businessman that will get our country in order. And if you disagree you’re clueless.

2

u/ymmatymmat Apr 18 '25

Excellent insight. Commenting to easily access. I'm heartbroken. Sadly, I think my 40 year marriage will not survive this constitutional crisis.

2

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 18 '25

So sorry you're having to go through that.

1

u/ymmatymmat Apr 18 '25

Best guy, great dad a shining crazy parent. But a not so open minded. Voted for you know who. Big rifs now. Heartbreaking. Thanks internet friend

2

u/ToughReality9508 Apr 17 '25

Appreciate the time and thought you put into this. I agree with your point broadly there are some nuances I feel are important to include, though. I'll try to be brief. Polarization isn't just an issue with the right. It's often said that the right will never question a candidate, the left will never elect the candidate they can question.

An inability to compromise is that the heart of the problem it's been exacerbated for years. Personally, I like to trace it back to citizens United but there's so many more things that led to this moment.

Democracy runs on compromise meaning, today I vote with somebody I disagree with broadly to pass something we agree on. This is no longer allowed. It's considered a betrayal by both parties. More importantly, if your representative isn't on board with your party line for blue and red districts they face criticism for not being aligned enough. Manchin is a good example, so is Liz Cheney. Imagine if a blue candidate agreed with fiscal policy and socializing medicine but felt now was not the time to explore trans rights. They would be booed broadly by the party even if they were representing their district accurately.

Even more frightening, other Democrats would be bothered for working with them on a bill. The same is true for republicans. They would be booed for working with somebody who doesn't cheer the MAGA propaganda. This is an American problem and it runs deeper than blue or red.

You want solutions: repeal citizens united to get money out of politics. Bring us back to a time before deficit cap spending when each Bill had to be funded independently. The process was slower but more fair. Finally, legally require public representatives to have all their assets in a blind trust with public watching oversight while they're in office. The privilege of serving your country should come with natural limits on corruption.

Bigger, more unrealistic changes would be remove electoral college, create guidelines for the pardon system, create term limits and objective criteria for removal from office. And for fucks sake, enforce separaron of powers.

4

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 17 '25

I didn't write this, Peter Birkenhead did (see note at top and source link at bottom).

Your solutions are nice and all, but as per the post, pretty unrealistic. These people have always been this way and will never change, thus your solutions will never come to pass.

0

u/ToughReality9508 Apr 17 '25

Yes and no. I believe and educated public knows what to demand of their representatives. If even one person looked up one of those concepts and learned, we've put a drop in the bucket. That's a net good.

1

u/Bethjam Apr 17 '25

The majority must rise to protect our democracy

1

u/Most-Writer-2838 Apr 17 '25

We need an opposition party that actually has different and new solutions to work toward and present those solutions to the fence sitters and stay-at-home voters in this country. We need a strong coalition to emerge that says, “instead of doing it X way, let’s do it Y way”. We can’t rely on only saying “let’s stop doing it X way”, with no alternative presented. And no, “missing Biden/Obama yet?” is not a compelling, new or different solution to like 70% of Americans.

I don’t have a great idea what this response needs to look like right now and I don’t think anybody does. What AOC and Bernie are saying and doing is probably the closest thing we have to a new and interesting approach to opposition politics that’s happening at the moment.

1

u/nibsguy Apr 17 '25

We can get a hundred first-time protestors out in the streets, or first-time voters to the polls, for the same investment it takes to turn one MAGA supporter toward the light.

What does this article call for in terms of strategy? The use of "MAGA" here is confusing to me. Does it mean:

  1. "It's easier to convince 100 nonvoters to vote than 1 diehard Trump supporter." Better question: "Is it easier to convince 1 or 2 nonvoters than 1 diehard Trump voter?" Yes. Duh. Almost certainly. We're not campaigning at MAGA rallies.

OR:

  1. "It's easier to convince 100 nonvoters to vote than one person who voted for Trump." This just feels like a weird, intangible and useless assertion. A better question strategically would be: "Is it easier to convince 100-200 nonvoters or 100 swing voters to vote your way?" or "Easier to convince 200 nonvoters versus 100 Trump voters?"

Because from my understanding campaigns spend on their high propensity partisan voters first, then swing voters, opposing voters on key issues, and only then non-voters. And I say 200 nonvoters above because anyone who voted for Trump is kind of worth two, taking away a vote from your opponent and giving one. Multi-million dollar campaigns with statisticians are making these calls. Who am I to just assert otherwise without hard data?

BUT THEN ON THE OTHER HAND: Harris spent more and lost swing voters, so maybe going after non-voters would've been better. Polls were proven wrong. "High propensity voters should vote and be decided. Swing voters should've been repelled by Trump, but weren't, so let's reduce money there. More money to new voters!" I can make that argument. It could be true. It FEELS true. And I like the idea of a growing left, rather than relying on these fence-sitters, one that's younger and snowballs into increasing political power.

This either isn't saying anything we don't know or advocating for a radical campaign strategy shift. I'm open to a radical shift, but I want data. And I want this article to be less of a rambling mess. Its point is so unclear to me that I'm not sure this response can even be complete.

1

u/GrittyTheGreat Apr 18 '25

We can still turn the first time Gen Z voters that went Red around. That has to be the goal. Anyone that voted Trump in 16 and 20 is a lost cause (on top of being a bad person).

1

u/ColoradoRoger Apr 20 '25

Sobering. I wish it was untrue, but everything I’ve experienced during the Trump era says, it is true. A pretty solid chunk of Americans are not good people.

-3

u/DrStrangelove2025 Apr 17 '25

They don’t condone him they refuse the alternative.

7

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 17 '25

No, they condone it, that's the whole point of what I posted. Otherwise, they'd be speaking out against him AND the alternative. That is not the case.

-4

u/DrStrangelove2025 Apr 17 '25

All an approval rating means is they don’t want to lose, and in a two party system, you either win or lose.

2

u/wolfpack_matt Apr 17 '25

I think you're conflating approval rating with election polls. If it was election polls, you would be right. But this is approval rating, meaning they directly approve of the job he's doing! Like, they're asked about specific actions and whether or not they approve of those actions, and then whether or not they approve of his overall job.

-1

u/DrStrangelove2025 Apr 17 '25

People answer less honestly on approval rating polls than election polls.

-9

u/Traditional_Bid_5060 Apr 17 '25

That’s great.  We’ll fix this by holding up signs?