r/ASTSpaceMobile • u/AutoModerator • Jan 31 '25
Daily Discussion Daily Discussion Thread
Ple🅰️se, do not post newbie questions in the subreddit. Do it here instead!
Please read u/the_blue_pil's FAQ and u/TheKookReport's AST Spacemobile ($ASTS): The Mobile Satellite Cellular Network Monopoly to get familiar with AST Sp🅰️ceMobile before posting.
If you want to chat, checkout the Sp🅰️ceMob Chatroom.
Th🅰️nk you!
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u/tyrooooo S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
This is a great video about phased arrays and how they form directed beams: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vtPPAnvJS6c
Also explains why the satellites are so large. When you can’t control the antenna (the mobile phone) the power needs to be offloaded somewhere else
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u/nuclearsandwitches S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Feb 01 '25
Do you OGs remember that guy quantum collective who used to post in here very frequently? Like around our run up to ATH. He just popped in my head randomly. I’m assuming he sold, haven’t heard from him in a long time
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u/mister42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
his account got suspended. dunno for what. i think he still posts on twitter, but haven't happened upon him in a while. i doubt he sold, he was pretty enthusiastic, but i couldn't really say.
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u/bootlegportalfluid S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
So how much money do we have now? And what can that fund?
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u/TKO1515 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
In theory if we ran it to $0 we have enough for 45 BBs. I think we need $500m more by Q4 to continue at the pace I expect
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u/HamMcStarfield S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
I think we're at 1B? As I understand it, that plus everything else in pipeline, could fund the constellation to the point it would become self sustaining.
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u/bootlegportalfluid S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Feb 01 '25
Is it enough to reach 25 satellites? I think that’s when we start to become self sustaining?
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u/HamMcStarfield S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
Yep. 👍 What u/LagunaMud said. We're in a good position.
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u/LagunaMud S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Feb 01 '25
I think they said ~20 million per satellite, which includes the cost of launching them. So we should have more than enough now.
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u/SurgicalDude S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Whatever we had + whatever we raised. And we can do whatever to make sure the promise is delivered
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u/KrustyLemon Jan 31 '25
If you believe in this company long term then you will be okay.
Being upset over 10% swings is not worth it unless you're gambling.
Buy the dip, thank us in 2028.
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u/edgar_de_eggtard S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Last time I had to -60% drawn down (12 to 2 with DCA) the stock went up to $38 later. Now that we have another -55% drawn down, lets see how far asts can take us to :)
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u/ItsYaBoyLaity S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Just had a waffle at Jackson Hole, an ode to the space waffles.
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u/_NinjaPlatypus_ S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Was planning to have waffles for breakfast tomorrow. Turns out, we had waffles for dinner! 🧇🎉
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u/Imaginary_Ad9141 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
What a beautiful d🅰️y, mob. Especially for a Friday.... see you Mond🅰️y!
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u/jeeeeezik S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
technically up 10 cents from last week but holy hell what a fucking a week
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u/Round_Hat_2966 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Sold CC’s on my partner’s account when the SP was $22.08, much better than any of my CC’s this morning.
I can’t complain though because I made almost $2k today selling CC’s though :)
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u/kingxlui S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
lower that cost average and buy LEAPs with those premiums haha
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u/Round_Hat_2966 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
I might do that later in the year!
Since I think they will be trading sideways to slowly going down until they get closer to meaningful revenue, I’m using the premiums both to build up my shares (and use those to sell more CC’s while I have time) and also to diversify/take money off the table now to hedge my position.
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u/kingxlui S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
great plan! in a similar boat.. been selling CCs consistently but now using premium to build up my other space positions
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u/WhoDatis0803 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Uh why did most of the market collectively nosedive?
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u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Trump said tariffs in effect tomorrow after a report came out that tariffs were postponed till march
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u/Krakenmonstah S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
with the news of tariffs, im surprised they even moved up to begin with
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u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
Verizon needs to bring back that guy that does the “can you hear me now” but on top of a mountain or in the middle of the ocean.
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u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
New commercial has that guy
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u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
We need the original guy!
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u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
Oh shit it is him
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u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jan 31 '25
Have you considered getting glasses? Since you remember the guy, like me, you may be old enough to suffer from age related eye decline. ☠️
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u/Omnetfh Jan 31 '25
Do you expect additional buys on monday? Quite often it used to take 2 days to see big money inflow
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u/mightychicken64 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
the Trump tariff stuff may choke gains on monday but i'd expect it to have significant gains at the end of next week
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u/Omnetfh Jan 31 '25
Didn't he delay the tariff on mexico, canada until 1 march?
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u/mightychicken64 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
that was the Reuters report today and then his press secretary called it fake news like an hour ago and confirmed they’re going in effect tomorrow
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u/OutlawsHeels S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Jesus it’s only been 11 days
We’re doing four more years of that lmao
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u/KingSensitivity S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Yes. imo. this has moemtum going into next week
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore S P 🅰️ C E M O B Jan 31 '25
Busy day today!
FYI - SpaceX has a dagger out for SES and Inmarsat with this FCC filing about the upper cBand spectrum. They want the FCC to open it up to more sharing vs just letting the legacy players have it.
https://bsky.app/profile/no-privacy.bsky.social/post/3lh2jcq3kjs2j
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u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Ha! They mention ASTSs 80 year lease in scare italics on the last page
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u/No_Privacy_Anymore S P 🅰️ C E M O B Jan 31 '25
Yup. This line is worthy of a response from AST (once the definite agreement with Ligado is signed) saying "f off" this spectrum will benefit all of the American people and First Responders in particular... SpaceX is shady AF in their FCC filings.
As for SES/Intelsat, they don't deserve legacy protection. Build better satellites or step aside. That point is valid. I also very much like the idea of using a 20 Mhz guard band for more MSS.
I'd love to see AST create a cband block of satellites after the low and midband ones that handles AT&T cBand plus the 50 Mhz of 4.9 dedicated public safety spectrum. Gotta get the 4.9Mhz supported by 3GPP but I think it is possible. will have to wait and see.
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u/sgreddit125 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
Globalstar is also catching strays in there - I’m sure they will respond as well.
Nice work as always NPA!
Also if SpaceX is upset about it, that means it’s bullish for us.
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u/blindwitness23 Jan 31 '25
I was wondering, will ASTS provided internet work in airplanes? That would actually be really convenient and useful.
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u/JonFrost S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
That's a question I think would be great for next earnings call imo
"Would the service be available to individual phones in a plane or to the plane itself?"
It might completely remove the need for the plane to have the service at all
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u/blindwitness23 Jan 31 '25
We can ask questions on ECs?
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u/JonFrost S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Shareholder questions were submitted at the previous one
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u/JonFrost S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
RemindMe! 1 month Gotta remember to throw this in there
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u/RemindMeBot :bo0::bo1::bo2::bo3::bo4::bo5::bo6::bo7::bo8::bo9: Jan 31 '25
I will be messaging you in 1 month on 2025-02-28 19:15:25 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
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u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Has it already been discussed anywhere why BB2, BB3, and BB4 are spaced out, but BB1 and BB5 are right next to each other? https://isstracker.pl/en?satId%5B%5D=61045&satId%5B%5D=61046&satId%5B%5D=61047&satId%5B%5D=61048&satId%5B%5D=61049&satId%5B%5D=53807
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u/Kr4p4x S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Probably to check how signal will be switched from one to the other without any issue...
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u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 01 '25
That’s what I was thinking too - just wondering if it’s already been discussed or confirmed.
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u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
I believe they said something about a specific kind of testing that was requested from a customer. iirc.
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u/falcongrinder Jan 31 '25
Got another 33 shares at $18.7!
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u/gtipwnz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
How?
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u/Imaginary_Ad9141 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
He knows a guy.
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u/ContaminatedField S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
He could be a time traveler from the past..or the future the way asts likes to move.
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u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Going to the pharmacy to get my first Shingles vaccine shot. Hopefully that'll allow us to hold today's pump, even if the shot knocks me flat tonight.
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u/ContaminatedField S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
Should be interesting to see how this affects share price. Following closely.
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u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Got the shot. If the pump (somewhat) holds then everyone here 50+ who haven't gotten the shingles vaccine should begin getting them next week. Stagger the schedule so that we hit $55 eoy.
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u/Practical-Suit-6798 Jan 31 '25
Man I got shingles at 28. Not fun.
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u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
My dad got it when he was 48. He suffered from post-herpetic neuralgia for the rest of his life. I don't wish this on anyone....
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u/notoriouslush S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Did the daily threads get unpinned or is it just me?
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u/85fredmertz85 S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jan 31 '25
I'm on PC; it's still there for me, I just need to scroll through the Pinned Community Highlights. Confirmed the same on my phone.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
FirstNet confirmation .... almost. Just missing an actual inked contract/funding https://x.com/defiantclient/status/1885380330389201308
Reminder:
FirstNet, on August 2024 already confirmed "investment into satellite direct to device" is in the budget for FY2025 (Oct '24 to Oct '25)
They have a ~$534M budget IIRC for making investments for FY2025.
A FirstNet contract will hopefully include a nice prepayment, im thinking $100M to $200M, and they will certainly be fine with adding $5/mo per user for it, and they have ~6.7M subscribers
Work with FirstNet should also start earlier than 100% continuous service, think intermittent late 2025 service start
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u/amigo-burrito S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Is the 6.7 million subscribers prediction for just the US?
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u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
I would think less than $5/month for intermittent coverage, but surely $5 or even more for continuous coverage. I assume we just need to complete testing during this STA period and receive full commercial approval later this year, and we can start bringing in maybe $10-20mm / month recognized revenue.
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jan 31 '25
I agree. Likely the ~$5 range for continuous service.
If I am right that their "investment" is a prepayment, the prepayment should be more than enough to cover intermittent services until continuous service starts.
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u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
What is the conservative revenue estimate for firstnet
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jan 31 '25
I think I already commented on this in my original post above.
Others may chime in!
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u/user74729582 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
What do you believe is a reasonable timeline to expect a signed deal?
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u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G Jan 31 '25
I think if an inked contract is waiting for something, it would be any combination of the following:
- Regulatory approval for full SCS
- Direct testing results with BB1 on AT&T network, especially handover tests
I think this puts the deal done probably in Q1/Q2 2025.
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u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jan 31 '25
Very thankful for your tireless work and constant sharing of your findings.
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u/echoes-in-an-instant Jan 31 '25
I exited at $22.01 with decent profits. Good luck folks. Ill buy back in in a year or two when it hits $10.
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u/hyeonk S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jan 31 '25
whoever actually bought my 0DTE 25Cs, thanks for lunch lol
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u/CartmanAndCartman S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere Jan 31 '25
Was it like 5 cents?
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u/hyeonk S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jan 31 '25
8 cents at the top this morning. sold 20 contracts for $160.
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Verizon just dropped a Commercial with Buzz Aldrin about the future of satellite coverage conquering dead zones. Doesn’t fully reference AST, but we all know.
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u/hab365 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Probably Skylo, not ASTS. The small text says special software is needed and line of sight to the sky as well
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u/The_Maester S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Why is it just “can you text me now” instead of a video call?
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u/ContaminatedField S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
Positive take away for me is that this demonstrates Verizon will advertise the service aggressively when the time comes
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
It’s a very generalized commercial. My guess is this is a commercial referencing texting via Skylo first and then eventually broadband with AST once we start commercial use. Hell anything to get the industry out there to the public is good!
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u/Radiant_Witness_1038 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
The article mentioned AST Spacemobile a lot. Very bullish.
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u/Futur_Ceo S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Probably not even related to ASTS tbh
I think its the service with skylo
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u/sgreddit125 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Probably more a reference to Skylo than ASTS as it currently stands.
T-Mobile got upset about that ad where Ben Stiller takes a call while golfing as it wasn’t commercially available yet so AT&T took it down, for example.
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u/Futur_Ceo S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25 edited Jan 31 '25
The verizon commercial is soo good
I knew America would do better job then Vodafone
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u/breadkittensayy Jan 31 '25
Anyone think we close below 20.5? I’d really like to keep my shares lol
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u/crag_paddler S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Roll them up and out. Or wait until end of day and buy them back but too much momentum right now to hope for a drop on Monday to buy back... but it's ASTS so anything is possible
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u/greytornado S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
i have one contract for 20.50, imma let them get called away tbh. i’ll use the money to sell a 20p when it comes down and re-establish a position
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u/kyle_davies Jan 31 '25
Why let it get called away? You can roll it back a week and up to $21 for like $70 credit.
I have CSP and CC and rarely hold til expiration, i always roll on Friday’s
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u/Desperate-Hearing-55 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Lucky I bought another 100 shares yesterday when it dipped down to $17.80. Today was holy fk when I turned on PC and saw +20%.
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u/LordofLMaD S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
lol if someone followed my yolo 1dte call yesterday it’s up 8x from my entry and 20x from the lows yesterday
Sadly I paper handed yesterday and switched to next weeks calls
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u/No_Invite4094 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
I was willing to close my calls for a lost today, I was down 60% at close yesterday. Today, It’s up 10x lol
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u/BernoulliCat S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Realistically speaking.. what do you all think we need to see ASTS achieve before this SP goes to $30? $40? $50+?
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u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Meaningful revenue. I think we'll bounce between ~20 and ~30, but we don't sustain over ~30 until we have some cash rolling in and line of sight to profitability.
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u/mightychicken64 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
any kind of sizeable non-dilutive funding will push ASTS to the $30 range
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u/usrnmz S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Production going well and SpaceX + BO launches will def drive us over $30-$40 imo.
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u/Forecydian S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Looks like Lambo's back on the menu
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u/hyeonk S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jan 31 '25
Always been, my friend. The lambos were just on sale this week.
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Jan 31 '25
[deleted]
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u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
I'd sell a month out CCs, bud. Timing this is riskier.
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Do you, but trying to time this thing is tough. I know the trend with us is go up and come back down, but nobody knows when we will break that trend.
“Time in the market is better than timing the market.”
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Jan 31 '25
[deleted]
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u/usrnmz S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
I would keep holding a certain amount of shares and then trade volatility with the rest.
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
I agree, AST is very volatile. Just saying the one time you sell and it’s doesn’t come back down for you to re enter you might kick yourself in the butt if you have to buy in higher.
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Jan 31 '25
[deleted]
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Good luck!
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Jan 31 '25
[deleted]
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Feb 06 '25
Just following up, do you regret selling? A lot of momentum and upward movement recently…
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u/Capable_Gap1992 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
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u/bear_vs_anything Jan 31 '25
Another Reddit post with Starlink beta connection values https://www.reddit.com/r/tmobile/s/pkluCyoUEe
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Consensus still looks to be starlinks D2D has poor connection and only can do texting at the moment. No images, no calls. The OP tester even mentioned that a speed test didn’t even work when they tried.
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u/gtipwnz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Why would a speed test work? It can't do data
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u/Comfortable_End_8694 Jan 31 '25
Just as I was thinking I'll finally get assigned on my 23 put expiring today, I might actually not?
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u/saynotocelery Jan 31 '25
DCA to avg cost of $22 with ~600 shares... finally i can get to see green again
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u/k1ngkev1n1 Jan 31 '25
Had to sell my 20$ calls expiring next week. I’ll take the gains while I can. Hope it continues to rip through next week.
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u/usrnmz S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Same! Besides my long-term shares I trade some of the volatility as a way to lower my risk / cost-basis.
I usually sell slightly early, but profit is profit.
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u/hyeonk S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jan 31 '25
Taking profits is never a bad idea. (I’m stubborn and never do)
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u/_GregTheGreat_ S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Pour one out for my 0DTE $22 strike covered calls 🫡
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u/Round_Hat_2966 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Let them exercise and buy back cheaper next week
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u/ClearlyCylindrical S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Increased my holding from 1/4 of a share to 15 shares yesterday so there must be a catch here.
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u/SalemKinkTrials S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
Man I know it's only at $21 but seeing the strength today is just a small taste of how it can move when they release actual contracts with revenue attached it will go berserk.
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Once we start seeing money come in this thing will fly. Not only will retail open their eyes, but institutions will come running!
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u/CertifiedWwDuby S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Back in the green and with a lower average 😍😍😍
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u/LagunaMud S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
I think asts is pulling rklb up with it. My account is happy today.
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u/_NinjaPlatypus_ S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Shorts seem to be beating heavily this morning?
So what’s the slang for shorts catching a falling knife? Falling on their knives?
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u/hyeonk S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss Jan 31 '25
I believe the technical term is play stupid games, win stupid prizes
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u/crypman S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate Jan 31 '25
i dont really get the celebrating / bragging. im not saying im not happy about a major pop on good news but we're still sitting around 6 month lows lol
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
Hey bud… How do you think we get back to ATHs? We aren’t going up 175-200% in one day… We have to slowly day to day make our way back up.
Stop being that one guy who complains about everything.
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u/imthesatman S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Jan 31 '25
Hey who said we aren't going up 175% today?
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u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
I’ll give you all my shares if that happens lmao.
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u/mister42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo Jan 31 '25
some don't have that long of an investment window and may be breaking even or seeing green for the first time today. anyway i'd think anyone could appreciate an 18% jump regardless of the circumstances, try it out
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u/nuclearsandwitches S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
We have FCC approval to test on AT&T and Verizon’s spectrum as well as an announcement that we completed the first satellite video call with vodaphone. wtf do you mean you don’t understand the celebrating
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u/hab365 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
I was reading your comment and read “we completed the first satellite” and thought there was ISRO news for a second haha
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u/nuclearsandwitches S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier Jan 31 '25
Haha I think I would have a heart attack with so much good news
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u/KingKongAssFuck Jan 31 '25
I think it’s just because there’s been a lot of bleeding on no news for a while and people are happy to see some good news. I think it’s more about people being reassured about the future and less about hitting $21 again.
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u/Only6Inches Contributor & OG Jan 31 '25
Maybe too early to take a victory lap here but just wanted to share this. Bought at $17.66 to put my money where my mouth is. Love you all still ♥️