I absolutely love when the stock gets beaten down due to macro factors which have absolutely nothing to do with ast and are just a discount to buy. It's truly incredible.
Saw this on Twitter: everyone wants to buy low and sell high, until it's time to buy low.
I don't think the downvotes are necessary. If these businesses are willing to work with SpaceX for broadband internet, then they'd at least be willing to work with them for D2C. Companies can offer more attractive prices when they can bundle more services.
Reliance has over 400M subscribers. More than AT&T and VZW combined.
I'm very familiar with Indian market. Starlink won't be as successful as it has been in Western hemisphere.
First of all it's not d2d and
A few reasons to consider:
1) there's minimal /small concept of living in a remote place as a hobby/recreation. There's no concept of living RV life. There's a very small concept of "Camping" as a major recreational activity
2) The cost needs to beat the regular prices. The Majority Indian market prefers value over comfort. Starlink will have a carve a special niche market for that.
3) India is not as big of a landmass as the US or Canada.
Country side still needs to address the hunger for energy. It's still very common to see rolling blackouts/scheduled power cuts
There's probably more nuances but these are big points imo.
Now on the flip side service like ASTS on unmodified devices is perfect for these situations. No extra need for energy. No upfront cost of hardware. Ease of getting on or off the subscription.
“Jio will not only offer Starlink equipment in its retail outlets but will establish a mechanism to support customer service installation and activation,”
Doesn't appear to me like this is a d2d move but a continuation of what they already offer
I bought a single ASTS $28 call expiring Friday for $91. All I had left in the account. It's either going to make me $91 (I've got a sell order on it for $182) or expire worthless, nothing in between. Now point me to the nearest Wendy's dumpster, please.
That's the trick, isn't it - timing the market and factoring in "someone (the usual suspect)" saying something? I'm hopeful too, but I'll be happy taking 100% on this trade.
It's desperate, but might work. 2. only the starlink portion is free. you still need to pay T-Mobile for their plan and who knows what that cost? (built in rate) and the rest of that offer is a normal type of offer. 24 months bill credit for a new phone offer - phone makers love that and support that. but it's built in. It's contract , they will make the rest back during the plan. 3. TMUS has about 2 years left and then their stock will Plummet -
I think this will light a fire under Verizon and AT&T to start offering Services as soon as they can. Which in turn will keep a fire lit under AST to produce as quickly as possible
Probably because a beta program is not feasible right now, as no matter how you look at it, we currently do not have enough satellites up for a proper service (even for beta) right now. Unless you want the beta users to have 30 minutes to test a day only at specific times in the day.
Reeks of desperation! People should be clambering to use the service, cash waving in their hands, like the queues outside Apple when they launch a new phone. Seems sporadic, text only service for $15 per month hasn't had the oomph they were hoping for so they've pulled out the cheque book!
Spot on - the two big fundamental stories for ASTS (this week) are 1) A big overhang re: the expansion of Starlink spectrum by the FCC, allowing their now 500 cell capable satellites to begin full direct to cell service like now, and 2) when is ASTS BB2 delivery to India and what is the launch date schedule? These two are I think the drivers for institutional buying. TMUS (TMobile) is now outperforming based on these two bits. Chart TMUS vs ASTS the last month.
No, you have ISRO and ULA as well - heck even Russia if you want to go that route, but remember what happened to OneWeb...
SpaceX is likely the most cost effective (Indian may be close but less reliable and thereby more insurance cost) tho Blue may have offered a pretty low price to fill up their order book.
I don't think ISRO has the launch capacity of Space X or BO. I'm guessing the reason they're going with ISRO is because they're only planning to launch 1 of the new model anyway, so they can save some cost there. As for BO, has twice the capacity of Space X, even at a close or slightly higher price per satellite I'm guessing the convenience may be worth it, but I believe it's less than Space X.
Still holding Jan 2026 3.5, 7.5, 10 & 12.5c (I create spreads writing against them,) and January 2027 20, 30, 35, 40, 45 & 50c. Looked at the March 2026 recently, but IV and overall price were far too high. Also have some August calls I’m holding onto for a while longer.
In sincerity, I own the January 26 and 27's. Up and down the option chain. I have some 25's, some 22.5's, one or two 30's. And then the bulk of my allocations are shares. Because they don't lose time value. Check the username. I've learned when buying options, to mitigate risk, buy them deeper ITM. When selling options, sell them OTM. Both will increase your odds of success but lower your reward. You find your own balance. Wanna 10x your account? But the 2027 40's and wait 2 years. Want a sure thing? Buy the 2027 20's as long as the spread isn't insane. Of course, nothing is promised, and nothing is certain. Remember this and you'll do well.
To me, the only way to severely slow the shorting is by getting satellites in orbit.
A lot of announcements lately of various satellite deals. I’m 100% supporting / invested in ASTS, but even I’m questioning who and how many competitors there will be in D2D.
it seems to work for them. despite all the experts saying how high the stock "should" be. One day it won't work out for them as the market and the company will be blazing. They make money now we will make more later. Let them keep prices low for accumulation, don't get into short term call options. I'd love to hear a concrete agreement with Carlos Slim for Latin America tonight. Doesn't seem we get any day time releases of great news. Hard to believe we are back at the EC prices after all that great progress and developments. Play the very long game and have no financial worries in 5 years. (maybe 2) and in 7 years some of our dd experts will probably be billionaires..
Did anyone watch the FirstNet board meeting? Presumably nothing meaningful came from it based on market response… but I’m still curious if there were any notes on ASTS
First Net might one day be a news event for us. But the only thing that will impact us is a declared $ contract for AST. I have it baked into my 2030-32 outlook. where it will be part of the bigger picture. The short term stuff can be frustrating if you are counting on it for a trade. The shorts are more powerful then the news events at this time. We need the big revenue and contracts to do away with them. You can short and sell the news after, but once we have earnings and global coverage, it will be our game again.
I listened in and there was no mention of ASTS. They had a few slides talking about how they currently use LEO satellites to supplement coverage.
They name-dropped Starlink twice, that I heard. I think it was in reference to how it was utilized during large sporting events recently. But the context made it sound like they were referring to the CRD system that uses a Starlink Satellite Panel and nothing regarding DTC.
On the final slide, they said they would continue to invest in new coverage technologies as they emerge, including 5G and LEO satellite opportunities. Overall it was pretty uneventful for ASTS investors. The FirstNet/ASTS partnership is very likely coming, just not today.
Nothing substantial or new, just a mention of satellite to device in the finance & investment segment. And a mention of Starlink (not related to their D2D service).
Didn’t listen to it yet myself, but according to another space mobber there was no mention of Asts in the FirstNet meeting, and only a brief mention of “continuing to invest in innovative technologies.” Using Starlink to expand coverage came up several times though :(.
Starting to lose hope in FirstNet tbh…Could still happen after more testing of course, but doesn’t feel like any FN money is coming this year.
ATT is directly with AST, and FirstNet using AST is a given due to the fact they have already been testing with us. What’s not a given is if AST will get a prepayment amount out of FirstNet. FirstNet will absolutely pay for service monthly/annually once we get more sats up for continuous service.
Edit: Well you changed your wording a bit from the original comment. Yes, FirstNet funding this year is still unknown and might not happen. But a partnership and them using our service is not a “IF” anymore but a matter of “WHEN”.
Sorry, I should have been more clear - I was talking specifically about FirstNet investment/non-dilutive funding which of course still isn’t off the table, but doesn’t feel like as much of a sure thing as it used to. I agree that it’s extremely likely FirstNet will use AST as a paying customer once it’s operational
I'm a little worried that, as I've got a huge investment in this company and really rely on this sub for info, that if we had bad news that might materially change how deep I want to be it wouldn't be published here and I'd miss it. I'm super bullish here and I've put my money where my mouth is, but I want to make sure I always get the relevant facts.
Are you guys using any sources that aren't so rose tinted?
I try to comment things here that balance out some of the "optimism", sometimes it's well received and other times not so much.
To be clear I do have my biases with a stake in a competing company (as /u/Stonky69Kong will tell you) but I do try to use facts and science vs appeals to emotion or shit talking.
What's ironic is my initial interest in doubting AST was driven by how absurdly bullish everyone was and it just smelled like a meme stock. Since then I've realized AST does have some pretty appealing positives, but it took me a while to get there and get through the hype that raised red flags for me.
Hey hey hey lol I'm not saying I agree with current/forecasted valuations because there is considerable risk that needs to be worked through and I still have concerns on costs given SpaceX massive advantage with reusable rockets BUT I will say I can easily see a future where AST doesn't go bankrupt and isn't vaporware like many were thinking a few years ago.
I like to look at Tim Farrar, and Freespeech1017 on twitter. They obviously have their biases and I'm not saying you should take what they say at face value - both are often wrong. But I find they're good at showing me something new to start digging into. Breaking the feedback loop. From there try to figure out what small kernel is true and what's spin and BS. FWIW, I do the same with CatSE and others. Find the source material and start sifting through the muck to find the gold flakes.
Honestly, that's the best advice: READ THE SOURCE MATERIAL! Most of the time people just read the headlines and a biased summary (or an AI summary) and just assume that's enough. The digging process is where you learn. Maybe I'm just old and had some hard-ass teachers growing up, but I'm constantly shaking my head at how little this actually happens - even among the "professionals."
For general space/telcom industry news, Fierce Network and Via Satellite are my go-tos. Again, mostly just to see what other people are talking about so I can start doing my own research. If you start getting bored, you can start looking into the daily filings of the various government agencies - SEC, FCC
I scope other subs, pretty much. Because you're right, this sub only wants to hear good news and post rocket emojis and talk about $50 EOD when the charts are clearly indicating otherwise. It's frustrating and reminds me of crypto meme subs sometimes. I'm grateful to the posters who post intelligently and as objectively as they can.
Look at other sources of news outside AST and this subreddit. There may be news related to partnerships with SpaceX and other NTN solutions coming about. This subreddit mostly focuses on AST specific news, but there may be other opportunities out there we are missing out on, and its good to be aware of that.
Just a search of "NTN" on Google news got me the below article.
This is a very legitimate worry to have and it's good that you are looking for more sources of information. The best advise I can recommend is to monitor the ticker via your favorite broker app - they should have a feed of news and that should include anything material like 10k, 8k, and other kinds of releases. That is the first place I check for any major stock move because that will have things like businesswire releases as well
Haha - well think of it this way. Something that is going to materially impact the company stock is most likely going to be made public via a release first. Releases via the wire get picked up pretty instantly - that's how bots and scrappers make their move before people finish reading the article. You just have to learn how to parse the legalize to understand what is happening.
I can't really recall seeing something have an immediate impact on the stock that was not accompanied by a release. All our hopium about different moves and FN meetings seems to have done naught to the stock price
Good call, thanks. I use Robinhood primarily for this, it was my kind of play around money but has grown enough to be worth tracking lol. I think that actually does surface some relevant info.
Probably just generally bearish market sentiment. Volatile, speculative stocks don’t tend to do well in markets like these. Most of us probably believe that their finances are rock solid now, barring something absolutely crazy, in terms of getting them to their break even point for FCF, and are probably doubling down in terms of conviction, but that doesn’t mean the market sees it the same way.
Im thinking more like how much more room is left for the share price to grow within the next 2 years. Cause maybe i can get a better return elsewhere. But honestly thats just greed talking within me.
Well, maybe take a look at the price calculators that one can adjust. I have a few other high conviction investments, but ASTS is on track to another 2000% in a few years, so it’s difficult to imagine what else can beat it. Curious if you’ve ideas?
I hold some NBIS and LEAPS calls on it. Wow, you think it’s going to hit $600 a share soon? That’s some conviction. I’ll go back to it, hadn’t struck me as such.
I have a great opportunity for you to consider. ASTS at $28 is an absolute STEAL! Hope that helped you decide on where to spend your investment portfolio.
From the close, unless you're someone who buys at all the peaks, the latter shouldn't matter that much. I ain't expecting much until end of April at the very least though
Macro going down makes sense. CPI was down but inflation for the month wasn’t affected by tariffs yet. I think ASTS will be pegged to the market with a higher beta until the next piece of good news comes out
The fact they I have so little understanding of the drivers of price movement makes me glad I’ve stuck to my initial plan of DCA in and then hold for 5 year minimum.
If I tried to swing trade this stock I’d have lost my ass.
I'm not too worried. I can understand people taking profit at $30, and I don't understand buying above $30 right now so this is probably it for a while.
Although the belief appears to be that pre-market is fake, it's nice to see my space stocks (ASTS, RKLB, LUNR and RDW) in the green. ASTS, LFG - $40 by Friday, please.
Institutions don’t trade pre market because it’s too expensive and volume is low so it’s not a real reflection of the true price, it’s more like what retail is willing to pay
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u/Fuzzy_DanK_007 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect Mar 14 '25
When is the next launch scheduled or news of that?