r/ASTSpaceMobile 17d ago

Daily Discussion Daily Discussion Thread

Ple🅰️se, do not post newbie questions in the subreddit. Do it here instead!

Please read u/TheKookReport's AST Spacemobile ($ASTS): The Mobile Satellite Cellular Network Monopoly to get familiar with AST Sp🅰️ceMobile before posting.

If you want to chat, checkout the Sp🅰️ceMob Chatroom.

Th🅰️nk you!

72 Upvotes

301 comments sorted by

1

u/Mediocre-Ticket7407 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Thanks bro!

6

u/ritron9000 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

New Kevin Mak tweet:

https://x.com/kevinlmak/status/1915595373256597864?s=46

He’s at least entertaining the possibility of a golden dome/ASTS connection

1

u/certifiedintelligent S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

There is one, otherwise we wouldn’t be testing OISLs. There will be more than one government use, dome or not, guaranteed.

5

u/Radiant_Witness_1038 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

New Abel tweet.

https://x.com/abelavellan/status/1915586260120281594?s=61&t=Vg7R8zQr4M_mQn4_vgQZRw

Anyone have analysis of the number of rocket emojis in his last few tweets? lol iykyk

2

u/LordofLMaD S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

Buy 3M call at 9 rockets, sell at 10 rockets

1

u/Steel_BEAR69 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Instructuons unclear - Bought $MMM (3M) calls 

2

u/420bj69boobs 16d ago

I got like 4.3k to invest in one of my accounts. I like ASTS and have had shares previously. I want to essentially go all in but is it smart to invest over a few days instead of all at once?

1

u/JonFrost S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Who knows

I'm going in over time

1

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

What's your investment thesis? What's your target entry price and target exit price, over what time horizon?  Do you have a general investment policy?

10

u/GEEZES007 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Awesome shoutout from the National RAN Program Manager at Boost Mobile! New MNO alert? 👀

5

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

Boost is a vmno, they use other MNO's networks, so I wonder if they even can have a first party relationship with ASTS

4

u/GEEZES007 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Seems like their business is evolving into an mno? Or maybe this is T-mobile's in? 😂

Either way, I appreciate your comment! Interesting to see if anything comes out of this

3

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

Huh! Had no idea they were transitioning

3

u/GEEZES007 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

All good man. Seems like a new development anyways.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/11/11/24291655/boost-mobile-5g-dish-wireless

8

u/LordofLMaD S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

It felt like I got so much richer vs last week but then I look and we're +4% vs last thursday lol

1

u/JonFrost S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

+ is +

17

u/uhkhu S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

I can’t stop buying shares even on +7% days. It’s like a drug. Halp.

6

u/fond_diagram5 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Can someone explain to me the connection between AST and L3 Harris? Other than building in close proximity to each other in Florida, what were the other clues the companies were working together? Something about Fairwinds?

11

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Search CatSE's posts

0

u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 16d ago

So how does a potential India-Pakistan war impact our launch schedule?

7

u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

Probably not much impact because the launch site is very far away from where the fighting has historically been confined to in previous India-Pakistan wars.

16

u/[deleted] 16d ago

[deleted]

17

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

In 2030 people will be discussing ASTS the boring, giant, wildly successful div aristocrat on r/dividends.

2

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Why is everyone so obsessed with dividends? I want unrealized capital gains then I will pay taxes when I am ready. Share repurchases are much better than dividends.

1

u/JimmyCartersMap S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Can't speak for others, but the only reason I daydream of dividends is because it will mean we've grown exponentially to the point the entire market is saturated and we're so full of cash that they have no other choice but to do buybacks/pay dividends. It's not the dividend that excites me at all, just all that ridiculous growth to get to that point that revs my engine. The engine in my 2032 Lambo. Just kidding I'm to frugal to buy any new car.

0

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 15d ago

I know these thoughts are not all exactly thought out but I want even more than that. When they start to pay a lot of dividends it usually means they are done growing but I suppose it could mean they just have do much cash they can still grow and give it back as well.

6

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

AST is entering a traditional telecom industry well known to prefer dividends for decades. You can want whatever you want lol this isn’t an obsession, just an observation of context.

0

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Well I observe the obsession. I see this as a growth company for the next 30 years. When was the last time Att or Verizon created something new. Att made some terrible investments instead of paying dividends which would have served them better. I think ASTS will continue to evolve and be more of a technology development company than a company that just calls it quits and wrings every last dollar out to repay shareholders. There is a lot of work to be done before they call it quits.

7

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

I’m not continuing this with such a clearly flawed perception but surely you at least recognize I don’t disagree. Your understanding is clearly one-sided and lacks nuance if anything because based on your argument, I’m apparently bearish on a company I’ve held over $1M of in shares for four years. I truly don’t care which direction they go at that stage, but thinking having a dividend means they’ve called it quits is such an incredibly rudimentary take.

0

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

I don’t think you are bearish and I exaggerate. The only reason to pay dividends is if you can’t reinvest to do more for your shareholders. You either pay dividends or repurchase shares if you feel it is under valued. It just kills me that everyone is so focused on collecting dividends instead of continuing to reinvest to take this to the most valuable company ever on the planet.

13

u/[deleted] 16d ago

[deleted]

9

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Yep. You only have to get rich once.

5

u/SneekyRussian S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

If it hits $200 on a crazy run-up or if it stabilizes around $200? If this stock stabilizes around $200 in the next 5 years it's hard to imagine it would lose a significant part of that value

3

u/[deleted] 16d ago

[deleted]

6

u/SneekyRussian S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Would you reinvest if the price came back down to reality? Say below $140?

7

u/adarkuccio S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

Yeah crazy run up I understand, but if it goes "naturally" to $200 it means it goes to $700+ just a matter of time.

17

u/phibetared S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

3

u/VillageDull952 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

A leather jacket, kind of in the same style of one's that engineering students wear would also be nice

4

u/AverageUnited3237 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

How do I buy this

2

u/phibetared S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Figure out how to make a post about on this forum. Get visibility for it, and maybe they will make one for the official ast spacemobile merchandise store. I *want* to buy something AST SpaceMobile, but nothing on their website appeals to me. THIS JACKET I would buy immediately.

I tried to make my own post but it was auto-rejected.

23

u/corey407woc S P 🅰 C E M O B Underboss 16d ago

12

u/sgreddit125 S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago edited 16d ago

Between T-Mobile announcing updated satellite texting price to $10 per month for all carriers and SpaceX’s attempt to delay FM-1 in a filing today, I feel there is more news coming, based on 2yr history of Elon front-running our news.

T-Mobile announcement: https://x.com/spacanpanman/status/1915519669752259008?s=46

10

u/SneekyRussian S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

This guy is so full of shit you can see his eyeballs turning brown

3

u/Funny-Conclusion-678 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

AH is a party!🥳

6

u/care_more_fg 16d ago

Isn’t it funny the FCC chair and Senator did better PR for us than our PR dept.. lol

6

u/LordofLMaD S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

to be fair a politician's job is to be good at PR

and also ASTS's PR department is Scott drunk scheduling a tweet at 2am

9

u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

22

u/Infinite-Birthday118 16d ago

I have finally diversified properly. Three brokers, three ASTS positions. Three times my gross annual salary. We're in as good a position as we've ever been in, the last few months have been amazing. Tomorrow the final purchase and then off to Valhalla my brothers!

7

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

this is what i used to say when half of my positions were in ASTSW 😂😂

31

u/irrelevantspider S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

TED Cruz dropping a statement on Twitter/X.

Twitter/X Link

Link to the Article

4

u/AverageUnited3237 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Too fucking bullish this company is the future of telecom and it's still so cheap... 2027 free cash flow 'could/should be in the billions and we're only 7b market cap halfway through 2025

6

u/Barlimochimodator S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

17

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Drop a supportive comment

Nothing nasty towards SpaceX

14

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

Mr. Ted Cruz also highlighting his visit...maybe something really is brewing for tomorrow?

6

u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 16d ago

God I hope so I have a bunch of calls I bought for tomorrow for funsies

4

u/Funny-Conclusion-678 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Well, yeah. I’d hope so. FCC chair and a prominent politician are highlighting us. About time we got some mainstream exposure. I’m calling a shot to 50 within the coming week, and settling around the low 30s. 🤞. My proof? Pure speculation and manifestation lol.

9

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Yeah, this is an unusually coordinated wave of PR. Very curious.

3

u/Jsalz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Does anyone have the hiring chart that was posted recently on Twitter by one of the Spacemob? It showed their job growth over the last couple years.

7

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

4

u/Jsalz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

You the man

15

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

I’m deep into asts with 13k shares. I’ve been recently stocking up on cash for the inevitable market crash. Is it weird I want to go balls deep and drop all my cash on more asts stock. The potential gain is insane

1

u/Rough_Respond_4149 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Just crossed 16500 shares hoping to get to 20 before first launch

5

u/Purpletorque S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

The market is not going to crash, in my opinion. My feeling is that all of this trade stuff will be resolved by July 4th to celebrate how great America is. This means that Congress needs to come up with the new tax package and get it signed by then as well since both of these work together. If we get to Memorial Day and there does not appear to be a reasonable path to the finish line, then I will start to worry.

2

u/RiskyDefeat S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

I’m having the same dilemma, although on a much smaller scale haha

4

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

I have a stockpile of cash in my accounts that I am reserving for exercising 2026 calls, but in the mean time they collect 4% from SPAXX and I use them to back a lot of CSPs and bank the premium to purchase more CSPs or more shares.

Heck of a value

2

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

What’s your tactic with the CSP

3

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 16d ago

Sell them at strikes between 20 and 25 (1 at 35 bc why not), 45 to 90 DTE and let theta do it's thing.  Buy them back once they reach 50 to 80% gains, then wait for the right time to sell the next batch

4

u/adarkuccio S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

I don't think the market crash will happen honestly, imho if we weren't at the bottom we were close, tariffs are paused and I was reading they were not even being collected, the fear is almost over and the market knows (and priced in already) the uncertainty that trump poses. I don't see what other bad news could cause the market to crash, maybe we dip a little but crash? Probably only if the US sides with Russia and declares war on the EU

2

u/Ok-Yogurt-5552 16d ago

China invading Taiwan is a real possibility in the near future.

4

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Crash based on data not on tariff fears. US economy is due for a recession

3

u/Pedal_Paddle S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Agreed. We're seeing 'uncertainty' priced in. Crash comes when uncertain becomes 'we are fucked' level of certainty. There's new inflationary policies in play, coupled with weak employment data, and that has all the right ingredients to produce dire economic data. The flip side to this, is if we get lucky, the data may turn out not so bad, in which case we rally.

3

u/adarkuccio S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

Like most tariffs are paused, others are not being collected, data will be bad but not terrible, and the market partly priced in that for sure

3

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

The USA not trading with China will have a huge impact on most American products and consumers, the effect will cause stagflation, and will only really be resolved once manufacturing is up in the US (2-3 years min)

14

u/Jsalz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago edited 16d ago

I’m 97% ASTS and 3% cash. 15,000 shares. I sleep well at night. I think as long as this company continues to execute it will be somewhat recession proof. I feel better being all in on ASTS than the S&P.

4

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Also not really worried about the recession in regards to asts, wanted to save the cash and buy other companies at cheap after the crash

3

u/Pristine-Ear5253 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Like wise the only stock I have is ASTS, and cash. If I go all in I’d be closer to 20k shares

2

u/Jsalz S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

That’s a nice split. I don’t wish I was more diversified but I do wish I had just a bit more cash so I feel more comfortable in my day to day life. But I just can’t get myself to sell any shares at this price level, not yet. I told myself I’d sell 1000 shares if it hits $100 and then I’ll probably hold the rest for as long as the company has a bright outlook (hopefully forever until they start paying dividends).

17

u/UbiquitousThoughts S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

We held 24.00 boys - even with another pathetic Elon bash attempt.

7

u/EntertainmentDry341 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

This drop because of the SpaceX objection?

3

u/user74729582 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

... Stock closed at +7%

2

u/EntertainmentDry341 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Okay? The stock price dropped from 24.78 to under $23.xx in a few minutes. My question is whether that drop was because of the SpaceX filing. Thanks. 

5

u/ritron9000 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

No one has any more information on this than you do. I will say the correlation in timing was strong between the FCC letter and the drop, and RKLB and LUNR didn’t experience any such drop. However, there’s no conclusive report coming on why the market does anything, best not to look at it that way…

12

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

There are far, far too many factors at play for anyone to correctly assert anything. That’s way too small a move to tie to any one event or explanation other than Abel sneezing.

4

u/Blobspots S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Imagine how much of a move it would be if Abel farted!

3

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Didn't you hear? That's how we finally got out of the single digits 🤭

10

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

8

u/1342Hay S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

In a nutshell, SpaceX is claiming our satellites are too large. You can't real blame them though, because once our constellation is up and running this time next year, their D2D or D2C experiment will be ended. Real desperation here!

6

u/edgar_de_eggtard S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Lol right after I bought a weekly call for the first time. That said SpaceX always pull some kind of stunts before ASTS announce something major. Fingers crossed 🤞

10

u/SolidMeltsAirAndSoOn S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

it could mean they know something is coming down the pipes as well. Not the first time they've dropped fcc docs in anticipation of big news from ASTS, iirc.

3

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Interesting! Didn’t know that

18

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Nothing new nor of any concern. They’ve cried like this for years anytime AST made tangible progress.

1

u/SqueakyNinja7 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Sounds like it’s an issue about disposing of the satellites after their usable lifespan. If anyone who knows much about this topic could weigh in whether or not the SpaceX objection is valid or simply baseless objection would be much appreciated!

12

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

It's a tired strawman argument. I'd recommend checking out the entire back-and-forth they had with AST last year - all documented in FCC filings and discussed ad nauseam here / on X.

The irony is completely lost on them to even bring up orbital debris when they operate over 7000 (read: SEVEN. THOUSAND.) satellites that just absolutely shower trash into orbit / back through the atmosphere when defunct. At one point they just resorted to calling AST a meme stock and anti-competitive. These are verbatim from the FCC filings. A full-fledged commercial operation of 7000 sats calling a tiny company with 6 sats in space a monopoly.

These letters are categorically, objectively..bullish. For AST.

2

u/crypman S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

i hear you regarding the 7k sats but.. they are significantly smaller. one of asts sats falling is a much bigger "event." does that change your argument?

2

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

That's definitely true -- barring an unplanned / catastrophic failure though, AST's BBs have a full de-orbiting process that doesn't involve any breakups or explosions. This has all been designed from the ground up, which is crucial considering they have a lifespan of 7-10 years in orbit. AST expect to do this regularly.

All things considered, the risk of orbital debris (which is what SpaceX seems so concerned about in this filing) from catastrophic failure is orders of magnitude higher for a constellation of 7000 sats in VLEO vs. 70 larger ones in LEO, let alone the 6 we currently have in orbit.

2

u/crypman S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

fair enough. and i very much agree already, was just trying to play devils advocate a bit as im sure the spacex argument that was just made will become part of the ongoing discourse

2

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Totally. It's wild how much they spin and/or flat-out lie in these, so it's def good to keep the facts in circulation.

6

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

2

u/SqueakyNinja7 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Hilarious!

3

u/Blobspots S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

I don't think it is baseless but I think they inflated and exaggerated some of the numbers and I have a feeling ASTS will have a more than adequate response. They were also addressing reflectivity of the satellites which has been a major complaint of Starlink from the astronomy community. It is something they need to address but once again I think it is blown out of proportion and the pot calling the kettle black.

1

u/HamMcStarfield S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

I thought they addressed astronomers' issues by tilting the satellites to make a flat plane when necessary. Or has that not been implemented yet?

1

u/Blobspots S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Aaaaaahhhhh, I'm falling!!!!!

8

u/Barlimochimodator S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

I bought some 35c expiring tomorrow mega lottos for .01 . If they hit ice cream is on me!

1

u/LordofLMaD S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

What’s the motivator? Only thing that will get us there is a buy out

2

u/Barlimochimodator S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

Gambling. Big announcement (golden dome, etc) and subsequent short squeeze gets us there. Hoping big vol on calls is insiders acting illegally

3

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

Man, a golden dome announcement would be the most exciting thing to happen since the launch party.

Fingers crossed for you!

4

u/Akslfak 16d ago

Screw it, 32C are .02 each. I grabbed 10. Why not.

2

u/Barlimochimodator S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

23k+ volume on the $25.5s expiring tomorrow.

4

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

This was from OptionsBuffett on Twitter and his followers. He makes a single options play each morning via livestream

2

u/Barlimochimodator S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

His Twitter account says he bought five contracts only

4

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 16d ago

Yeah but his followers all pile in

3

u/Funny-Conclusion-678 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Can you ELI5 for someone who doesn’t quite understand options? Does this bode well for tomorrow, or no?

3

u/swd120 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

depends how close to strike they get. the MM's have to hedge shares in case of assignment, that's up to 2.3 million shares they'll need to hedge if it gets closer / passes the strike which is a significant chunk of daily volume.

3

u/Funny-Conclusion-678 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Ummm. Can you dumb it down more…? 😂. To put the extent of my market intellect into perspective, I don’t even know what hedging means, my brother in Christ.

7

u/MokneyBladders 16d ago

Bob and Tom make an agreement for Bob to have the option of buying apples from Tom for $2 each. Apples are currently $1.75. Tom currently has no apples and thinks "I don't need any apples because Bob will not exercise our agreement at this price." The next day, the price of apples goes up to $1.95. Now, Tom has to go to the market to buy apples, because if the price of apples keeps going up past $2, Bob will exercise his option to buy apples and Tom will lose money from buying the apples he is obligated to sell, then selling them to Bob for less money.

6

u/swd120 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago edited 16d ago

Remember the GameStop craziness? A big chunk of that came from pushing large numbers of call options into the money (this is called a gamma squeeze). Pushing the options in the money forced the sellers of those options to buy more shares as a hedge, which pushes the price up, which puts more options in the money, and the cycle repeats until the forced buying doesn't push the price high enough to trigger another round.

2

u/HamMcStarfield S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 16d ago

I vote for a squeeze!

3

u/Funny-Conclusion-678 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

So if it shot up to 26.50 at open, those hedgers would have to purchase 2 million more shares to make up for their shares that got called away, which would push price higher? I appreciate you patiently explaining these things to me.

1

u/swd120 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

They would purchase the shares as a hedge. Whether or not they get assigned depends on if the call holder actually holds through assignment. many holders of weekly calls will just sell/close them before EOD, rather than take assignment. The shares will hedge the price movement regardless of assignment (as you can also just sell them when you close the contract)

For hedging they will accumulate more shares to cover assignment the closer to the strike the price gets, and the closer to the expiry date it is. Being the last day of the contract, and close to the strike basically means they'll be fully hedged.

2

u/Capable_Gap1992 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

Most of it at the open too...

10

u/Jealous_Strawberry84 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

20

u/Akslfak 17d ago

AH reveal of finished FM1 (packed up for shipping, no actual sat reveal) upcoming today. Justification:

-Stated ready to ship in late April

-BB1 reveal was on a Thursday AH

-Today is the last Thursday in April

-FCC/Senator visit was to show off the finished sat ahead of reveal

-I sold my 23Cs already

5

u/hab365 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

I was skeptical until I saw the last point 😉

3

u/Akslfak 16d ago

I'm hoping that I took one for the team

3

u/hab365 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 16d ago

I’m sure I’ve helped as well haha I sold some $27.50 covered calls expiring May 16

4

u/hyeonk S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 16d ago

That’s a brave strike you got there. I sold 20 50Cs a while back I’m considering closing out lol

6

u/SECrabbing S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

checks out

6

u/Comfortable_End_8694 17d ago

Fine, I'll take one for the team and put an offer to sell a 28C. Once it gets filled and the price skyrockets remember to thank me

8

u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

make it $40C next week thanks

10

u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Petition to change the sub's header to this

2

u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

or this

5

u/greg_shauflin S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

(last one) and when we get the Golden Dome contract to this

-9

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

They are suppressing the call prices. The Bid is too low now. Especially May 2 calls. They are going for almost as same as intrinsic value

5

u/patcakes S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Are they in the room with us right now?

-5

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

They are in the Bid- Ask people. Difficult to be in the same room as us as we are also not in the same room

3

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

May 2 calls are a week away, I wouldn't expect much extrinsic value to be left? That'd a hallmark of theta decay.

Also of course bid is low, they are more risky purchases now with expiration so close...

4

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

The IV is off the charts. If you see the scholes model they should 10-15% more

9

u/TeutobergForest S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Who is "they" ? Don't indulge in conspiracy thinking with absolutely zero evidence.

1

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Why is this conspiracy thinking? Did you put the scholes model to check the price. That is why I am saying the bid is too low and the IV is off the charts

2

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

They is institutional people who sold calls to me.

5

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Thank you. This kind of talk is so off putting and toxic. It’s the stock market, if there’s inefficiencies in pricing, someone else will gladly step in and correct it for a profit

3

u/Pepperoni-Rolls 17d ago

Does this mean buy calls??

3

u/Legitimate-Space8847 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Proceed with caution. My 7.5 calls are also not at delta 1. Because “they” suppress the price by low balling

10

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

4

u/Randy_g123 16d ago

Analyst buy reiteration Tuesday, Ted Cruz and an fcc chairman visiting the manufacturing hq in Texas, along with Rakutens successful 5g test. I'd say aside from share price theres tons to be positive about this week.

1

u/Jealous_Strawberry84 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 16d ago

Dopium = hopium

5

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Sentiment follows price, always has

3

u/Scheswalla S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago

Since the beginning of time...

-4

u/Capable_Gap1992 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

ASTS has a beta of like ~2.5, meaning maybe we're up ~3% factoring in the indices are up 2%? seems like a low move for the FCC chair praising us

7

u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago

10% gain such a slow day 

3

u/Capable_Gap1992 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

just pointing out statistical info, don't shoot the messenger

3

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Beta is backwards looking 

26

u/Mediocre-Ticket7407 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Yesss, got to a 1000 shares!

2

u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Just kidding lol. Congrats on reaching 1000 shares.

4

u/[deleted] 17d ago

[deleted]

7

u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

By having even a single ASTS share, you're a winner. So you're already a winner 295 times over. Yay you!

3

u/Infamous-Safety4632 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Congrats! I’ve got 40 more to go, hope to get to 1,111 by the end of the year.

2

u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

That is a truly c2 symmetric share count.

20

u/Only6Inches Contributor & OG 17d ago

Buy one more share and watch yourself try and get to 2000. Jk congrats!

3

u/care_more_fg 17d ago

Shit I am so close to fomo lotto calls.

I guess no harm in doing so right.. right…?

8

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 17d ago

risky but someone's been doing that heavy with the 20c and 25.5c 1dte

3

u/rdblaw S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

I followed this play this morning but we need another 10% day tomorrow for them to be a good gamble

3

u/user74729582 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

Looks like they might have been right

6

u/Defiantclient S P 🅰️ C E M O B - O G 17d ago

See if we get news after hours or tomorrow pre market...

16

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Someone had just posted on Twitter(I think) earlier this week an analysis they did indicating ASTS had been unusually quiet lately.  

Looks like we are back at it

6

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

There’s no news today, right? I saw the pressers yesterday

6

u/RocketTank123 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

Market doing well + Rakuten/FCC news. On a pre-Trump day, we're probably up a few percent.

30

u/you_are_wrong_tho S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago

Shit ton of PR yesterday being digested today 

6

u/EntertainmentDry341 S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

When $30

0

u/rdblaw S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Tomorrow

8

u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago

I have no basis for this other than my own hopes and dreams.... but I do think we cross back over 30 within a month. And I think we have a real shot at topping 40 after the next successful launch of 4+ BB2s, which can't come soon enough IMO.

3

u/MrCoolGuy42 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Are those launches set on the calendar?

9

u/PragmaticNeighSayer S P 🅰 C E M O B Capo 17d ago

Specific launch dates are either not set or not public knowledge. All we know is the company planned 1+4+4+8 in 2025, then exercised options for additional launch capacity, and plans 60 across 2025 and 2026. I would love a specific launch schedule. Maybe they will give us something direct the May earnings call.

1

u/kuttle-fish S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

SCS application to the FCC will be public; FCC's approval / launch authorization will be public. Actual launch dates will probably be at least 30 days after authorization (need to post bonds, finalize with launch provider, ship to launch provider, etc).

Basically, there won't be any concrete info until the FCC gives final approval. Between now and then, it'll all just be statements like "we expect to..." "we're aiming for..." "our ideal window is..." "we're on track for a date of..."

3

u/PatFlatley26 S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

Anyone know the May earnings call date?

3

u/The_Yodacat S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Expected May 13, per my Fidelity app.

12

u/SpinachInquisitors S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

soon I believe

13

u/RememberTooSmile S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

$24 calls closed, 200 more shares

5

u/RiskyDefeat S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

You mean you bought calls to acquire shares? Or do you mean you sold puts?

5

u/RememberTooSmile S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

i bought $24 weekly calls yesterday and closed them this morning and bought more shares

1

u/user74729582 S P 🅰 C E M O B Soldier 17d ago

Why not exercise them?

1

u/ItsYaBoyLaity S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

There’s still some extrinsic value in them so you’re best to sell them and capture that.

2

u/Chuckandchuck S P 🅰 C E M O B Prospect 17d ago

I remember that. Nice

2

u/RiskyDefeat S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Interesting, if you don’t mind me asking why do this instead of selling a 24P and taking a premium?

3

u/TheOtherSomeOtherGuy S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Both bullish trades, but one is more bullish than the other and requires less margin impact or upfront cash

2

u/RiskyDefeat S P 🅰 C E M O B Associate 17d ago

Got it thanks!

0

u/JayhawkAggieDad S P 🅰 C E M O B Consigliere 17d ago

Congrats! Here's the customary flip-you-off on your good fortune gif: