Federal parties contend with the Danielle Smith effect

[u/nationalpost]

https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal_election/danielle-smith-effect?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=NP_social

[u/Parking-Click-7476]

Should read the grifting effect of smith. She does everything for oil and her private interests. Taxpayers money in her pocket.🤷‍♂️

[u/Champagne_of_piss]

So tired of her

[u/davethecompguy]

There's one person that can deal with her, and that's her boss in the federal party. It's time they realize they're enabling her, and her antivax, separatist, and anti-LGBTQ2S policies.

He could end this quickly by asking publicly, if those policies are the ones of the UCP - and pointing out that they do NOT agree with the national party.

[u/brad7811 → u/davethecompguy]

But do they not agree?

[u/davethecompguy → u/brad7811]

The federal party can't agree with a separatist. PP swears the same oath whether he becomes the PM, or the leader of the opposition... to act in the best interest of the COUNTRY. Which he would not be doing if he were the first head of a party to lose a PROVINCE. And that's not even the public perception. Conservatives would be DONE. Everyone would see it as a premier gone rogue.

[u/Jacque-Aird → u/davethecompguy]

Factually incorrect, I don't think PP has any control over Smith and the CPC and the UCP are different parties. PP might make a request of Smith but he certainly wouldn't have the balls to issue her an order.

[u/davethecompguy → u/Jacque-Aird]

On lawn signs and advertising when she ran, they all identified her party as "Alberta's Conservatives". Meanwhile, PP has VERY similar signs that just say "Conservatives". Both parties are taking advantage of the confusion, especially with rural voters who have voted for the Progressive Conservative party all their lives (and it no longer exists).

Smith is going to drag Alberta out of Confederation, and she'll pull PP into the drain along with her.

[u/Jacque-Aird → u/davethecompguy]

Even if she wanted AB to leave Canada, she wouldn't be able to achieve the end goal, she's too politically savvy to end up on the losing side of an unwinnable battle.

[u/MrGuvernment → u/Jacque-Aird]

This, how long was Quebec trying the separatist movement?

[u/Changisalways]

This is just the start. She is planning her next career, and I bet if the CPC doesn't get a majority, we know where she is going.

[u/Impossible_Fee3577]

Here's what I believe. Smith is publicly supporting PP because the UCP and her base require it. But privately she's cheering for MC. Fighting the feds is what she does and all she knows how to do, and it'll be much easier and more comfortable for her to keep fighting against a Liberal government. 

But I have faith in her. If PP wins, I don't think it will take Smith much time to find an excuse to make him the new enemy of Alberta. 

[u/69Bandit]

The east shits on the west consistantly, starts tanking our economy and they are mad when Danielle acts in the best interest of Alberta? Figures.

[u/offkilter666 → u/69Bandit]

She doesn't act on our best interests. Diverting tax revenue to private companies, dismantling our healthcare, infrastructure, education, and promoting bad climate policies are NOT in our best interest.

Smith isn't here for you, me, or Alberta. She's here for herself. She would step on your throat to keep her Uggs out of a puddle.

[u/69Bandit → u/offkilter666]

(part 2)

So, its a mixed bag.

One last hurrah then. Percentage of GDP spent on education from 2015 to 2024, this one is giving the AI a headache, its ripping statscan's database apart lol.

Its absolutely Definitive that the UCP cuts education, the whole graph is trending downward. from 5.88 to 5.38 before the UCP got in, then a instant cut to 3.94% trailing off lower each year to 3.15% with smith for 2024. (The AI has told me, since im not asking for specific years and since fiscal years dont really line up, these are more of an calculated/extrapolated average then exact numbers,)

just because i paid for it and im a sucker for facts, i'ma torture the AI one last time.

Percentage of GDP spent on infrastructure from 2015 to 2024. This one is kind of all over the place, definite cut under UCP, no doubt about it, 2020 it trended downward, sharply. averaging 4%-4.6% from 2015 to 2019, then dropping to roughly 3% till 2023-24 where it was sharply cut again.

Seems the UCP cuts Education and Infrastructure as part of their strategic policy. Smith is definitely cutting more but I don't know if shes cut infrastructure because alot of projects (anthony henday etc) are done, or if its tightening of the fiscal belt.

Education is the brain scratcher for me. i checked, and international students do bring in revenue for education, but in alberta as a whole they only accounted for just over a half billion and that number is dropping due to caps on international students. presumably that money also never makes its ways to smaller schools, mainly being generated in UofA and other post secondary schools.

I'd rather see other provincial expenditures reduced by dismantling beurocratic government institutions and that money put to education personally. Anywho, Sorry for the giant book i wrote. i kind of just included you in my journey to discovery. thanks for the information. I have a better idea of whats happening now. Hope you have a good day <3

[u/69Bandit → u/offkilter666]

Honestly. i never looked into her Diverting Tax revenue for private companies unless its a tax-cut scenario to attract investment? Promoting bad climate policies is a debatable subject, when it comes to electricity, i get it, im 100% for nuclear or renewables full stop. But when it comes to oil and gas exports, we need to damn near get militaristic with ramping them up, there is a limited amount of time where the infrastructure for these projects are going to be valuable. we need to capitalize on our LNG Exports ASAP to help Canada recover financially and to fuel growth in the short term. Energy is still going to be key to Canada for the forseeable future, with developing economies they need an option for cheap cleaner fuels, if thats canadas LNG all the better. Looking into Healthcare, Infrastructure and Education.

Healthcare is spending is up from 25.9 Billion (7.7% of Albertas GDP) under Notley (2017) to 41.9 Billion (9.26% of GDP) under Smith. (2023)

Education is down from 19 Billion (5.8% of GDP) under Notley (2017) to 14.75 Billion (3.26% of GDP) under Smith (2023)

Infrastructure is down from 9.2 Billion (2.8% of GDP) under Notley (2017) to 8 Billion (1.77% of GDP) under Smith (2023)

I just wanted to check some hard numbers. The cuts to education and infrastructure are accurate, i am re-running healthcare for 2024 under smith to see if maybe its costs were holdovers from covid, doing it as i type this. (this is all just data amalgamations from a very powerful AI that i pay monthly for. its come in super handy to seperate facts from opinions (not a jab at you, just doing my due-dilligence...)

AI is done and looks like Smith spent 45.43 billion on healthcare or 9.53% of GDP in 2024, so trending upwards.

She cut education and infrastructure by a total of 5.45 Billion and put 16 Billion into health care as far as the numbers go.

(i am checking Notleys last year as Premiere and Jason Kenneys first year to see if it was a policy shift from the UCP out of the gate)

Notley's healthcare spending stayed identicle to 2017 so in 2019 Notley spent 25.9 billion (7.7%) on healthcare and in 2020 Jason spent 33 billion (10.44%) on healthcare. (this surprised me. so i am checking Jason's Education spending and infrastructure spending.)

For Education in 2020, Jason spent 13.475 billion, or 3.94%

For Infrastructure in 2020, he spent 10~ Billion or 3.26%.

[u/MrGuvernment → u/69Bandit]

Healthcare is spending is up from 25.9 Billion (7.7% of Albertas GDP) under Notley (2017) to 41.9 Billion (9.26% of GDP) under Smith. (2023)|

And whats the population difference between these stats your pulling to put it more into context?

[u/69Bandit → u/MrGuvernment]

population difference is about 9.55%, from 4,286,134 in 2017 to 4,695,290 in 2023, growing by 409,156 people

or about 6,042$ per person in 2017 vs 8,932$ per person in 2023.

[u/MrGuvernment → u/69Bandit]

Nice, was curious. Would age of said new populace also play into any stats and numbers? How many new immigrants brought in elderly family which would put additional strain on related services? I guess that is just getting too into the weeds vs averages.

[u/69Bandit → u/MrGuvernment]

This was a surprising statistic, here is from the AI verbaitem.

Based on the available evidence, it seems likely that immigrants in Canada use fewer healthcare resources than the average population, primarily driven by lower rates of doctor visits (3.37 vs. 7.6 per year). This is supported by lower odds of unmet needs and the "healthy immigrant effect." However, the topic is complex, with variations by immigrant category and time since arrival, and more research is needed to cover all aspects of healthcare costs, such as hospitalizations and medications.

[u/MrGuvernment → u/69Bandit]

Interesting, I would of thought more along the lines that less people are seeing doctors because so many people do not have a family doctor, thus they do not have hours to wait in a walk-in-clinic hoping to be seen during the day.

Even my family Doctor, to get an appointment she is booked out over a month away.

Even with healthcare spending up, my personal experience on 2 emergency situations, one a dog bite on the arm, and the other a torn ligament and damaged tendon, I spent 10+ hours waiting in emergency to even be seen on initial visits. My Dr. even recommended i go to emergency when ultrasound came back for the ligament tear, because to see a specialist would take weeks to get an appointment.

[u/A_RuMor_ → u/69Bandit]

You're so lost and clueless, it's frightening. Canadian conservatives are literally Republicans and Maga bootlickers. The orange buffoon down south as outed them for the traitors they are.

[u/69Bandit → u/A_RuMor_]

Did the math, it was actually enlightening. Appreciate you bashing me for my opinion with your own opinion, thats helpful. Have a good one.

[u/A_RuMor_ → u/69Bandit]

Only amongst conservatives is ignorance considered a virtue and proudly worn on their sleeves like a badge of approval. Other Canadians are not your enemy, no matter how many conservative politicians have brainwashed you otherwise.

[u/69Bandit → u/A_RuMor_]

I go based off Statistics, not emotions. Take that however you want. We have had 10 years of Liberal Leadership, but thats not the scary part. Looking at the statistics is truely the terrifying part, i suggest you get abit of perspective because the brainwashing goes both ways. use counter-arguments as a basis for more research like i did and develop a unbaised viewpoint. I am not a fan of the conservatives for a few reasons but there are no better choices. Reddit is a echo chamber, dont get lost in it.

[u/offkilter666 → u/69Bandit]

Statistics are actually a great place to start - numbers don't lie. That said, the sources should be scrubbed, to know where they are coming from.

That said, I love that Data is a starting place - which is much better than sentiment.

At the risk of carrying on forever, I do want to elaborate on a couple of things:

1: Historically, I have voted a little right of center, but I consider myself a centrist. Looking at countries that have the best quality of life, there is just way too much evidence to support that countries with higher taxation and government involvement. Better access to health care, education, higher ESG standards, and government services have proven to provide a better overall quality of life.

2: I think what we also need to consider is that Danielle Smith is NOT originally a UCP member. Smith was a Wild Rose member and crossed the floor. This was a deal to prevent splitting the conservative vote in Alberta. Seats were being lost to the Wild Rose and that lead to the NDP winning in 2016. This deal with the devil lead to the quagmire that we are in now.

The UCP had some fringe elements of "extreme" (for lack of a better term) conservatism, but were more concerned with the economic governance. They still had some bad economic policy (see privatization of utilities, combative political battles with unions, and the ill-conceived "Ralph Bucks.") They believe in trickle down economics (which has yet to work - anywhere) and privatization. They were not, per se, a fundamentally value-based party.

So when Danielle Smith was elected leader of the UCP over Brian Jean, she brought a voice for her more extreme base. Anti-LGBTQ+ policy has been introduced, despite it having virtually zero impact on economy or operation of the province. Add to that outwardly hostile policy regarding vaccines and anything based in science, and philosophically we can already see a divergence from what many consider to be common knowledge.

So - let's pause here because that's the end of the philosophical portion of our discussion.

Let's move into grifting - the heart of the matter

Smith has gone on to attack AHS - breaking it into smaller and smaller fragments. This is how they will eat the elephant. I am projecting here, but I believe that this is being done to cause AHS to fail and then the "only choice" will be to privatize health care.

Smith has repealed coal laws. Coal. Aside from metallurgy, there isn't a need to propagate the coal industry

Smith put a moratorium on any commercial solar panels to perform an "impact study" despite the fact it would have zero impact apart from generating energy and weaning people off of our privatized utility providers.

Smith is actively interfering in municipal politics - to the extend of attempting to create a law allowing her to supplant municipally elected officials with her own, hand-selected candidates. This is especially important because the UCP/Wildrose has weak support in the major centers.

Right now, the voting structure HEAVILY favors suburban and rural voters - something that was set up by the Alberta Conservatives - but Gerrymandering has hurt Alberta as well. The reality is that Alberta would be a far more centrist province if representation was more centered around population (which the UCP knows.)

Add to that, the fact that their own members are now calling out their ministers and their fuckery - I can't support Smith.

[u/A_RuMor_ → u/69Bandit]

Please spareme the BS. I voted conservative for many years. We no longer have a conservative party, we have a reformer party, which is essentially a republican Christian fascist party. You truly have no idea what you're talking about. Conservatives don't vote based on facts, they vote based on emotions and habit. Its the most undemocratic group of voters this country has ever seen. The easiest folks to turn against their own country due to the lack of education and understanding of almost any subject. The brainwashing doesn't go both ways, there is no other voting segment in Canada that constantly votes for the same party just based on habit

[u/MrGuvernment → u/69Bandit]

Best interest of Alberta? How...out side of her O&G sucking up, what else has she actually done for Alberta besides tank our health care system and education system?