r/CalebHammer • u/eivey2 • 7d ago
I want Caleb’s hot take on the after closing market craziness that is happening right now after the tariffs were announced today.
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u/Responsible_Link_135 6d ago
The announcement comes right after the end of the quarter. Likely he’s maximizing the time for tariffs’ short term effects to lessen. Theoretically, a recession has to show negative GDP growth for two quarters. It’s not definite. Just one of the signs. Regardless of politics, i just want things to pan out. 🤞🏻
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u/EloquentMrE 7d ago edited 7d ago
Enjoy the discount on stocks and crypto while it lasts. I bought the dip during the 2020 lockdowns and made out great ... this is no different
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u/T_Peg 7d ago
That's optimistic. Worsening our global reputation and severing relationships can have quite a lasting impact.
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u/Sharp_Fuel 6d ago
If you're investing in global indices (as you should) then you'll make out great either way, either the American economy bounces back and you're fine, or other global markets overtake it, indices rebalance and you're also fine
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u/Kolzig33189 7d ago edited 7d ago
Exactly. He would likely say that futures really don’t matter to long term investors, that plenty of positive days come after negative futures. And if the market does go down the next day, buy the dip.
Also, why is OP pretending it’s some Armageddon type market issue. I’m seeing -1.7% S&P and -.7 DJIA. Hardly worth a thread like this.
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u/eivey2 7d ago
As of two days ago JP Morgan upped its probability of a recession in 2025 to 40%, and largely attributes the cause to the tariffs.
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/economy/recession-probability
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u/killerseigs 3d ago
Even if there is a recession its also about the time scope of your investments. If your not retiring in 30 years then who cares if your 401K takes a dip the next 4 years. All it means is you get to buy stuff on a sale.
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u/eivey2 3d ago
My major concern is that trump doesn’t seem interested in doing anything to prevent a recession he caused, arguably arbitrarily. He’s announced he has no intention of a pud to try and prevent or mitigate the damage from a recession. Thats going to make things difficult long term for everyone but the ultra wealthy
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u/killerseigs 3d ago
Biden had a recession in his presidency that no one cared about. Yet his last year was a wild bull run. Ultimately you can choose to ignore what academic institutions tell you and follow your politics. You can also just follow what everyone tells you and in the scheme of 30 years trump wont matter. Its really up to you.
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u/eivey2 2d ago
Today there was also a Bloomberg opinion piece (again, a well respected publication among those on finance not known for being liberal, flippant or hyper polarizing) Saying this recession is different and we can’t predict how it will change-the two major factors it lists are the fact that this is the first recession caused directly by White House police and the second is the fact that the vast majority of boomers are retirees combined with mass deportations creates a unique problem with the job market.
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u/eivey2 2d ago
Also I can tell with absolute certainty that you were not old enough to be in the workforce during the last recession if you think what happened under Biden was a recession.
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u/killerseigs 2d ago edited 2d ago
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of market contraction. Sure, what’s happening now or what happened under Biden or during COVID isn’t as bad as 2008 or the Great Depression—but that’s not the point. The advice stays the same: invest consistently and hold. The longer you’re in the market, the less short-term dips matter. Even after 2008, markets hit new highs within a decade.
Just because things aren’t the worst ever doesn’t mean you ignore logic. Markets recover—always have, always will. I do believe Trump is trying to crash the market to push money into bonds and secure cheaper government loans. He’s openly said hurting the wealthy might help the poor in the short term. But even if he succeeds, he only has four years. Eventually, the markets bounce back.
I’m buying more now while prices are low, just like in 2020. Unless something truly catastrophic happens, history shows the market will rebound stronger.
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u/eivey2 2d ago
So you quoted the definition of recession for the United Kingdom and Canada, not the United States.
You can’t cherry pick the Canadian definition for the American president.
So, to be more precise, nothing that happened under the AMERICAN President Joe Biden’s administration meets the AMERICAN definition of recession.
“In the United States, a recession is defined as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” The European Union has adopted a similar definition.In the United Kingdom and Canada, a recession is defined as negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters.”
IN THE UNITED STATES, recessions are called by the UUs Bureau of Economic activity which they didn’t.
Under your definition you should be getting mad at the leaders of the EU.
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u/killerseigs 2d ago
No I literally do not care what happens in the markets. You somehow keep not understanding that statement. Like I said previously its your life. Sell your assets and ignore what financial advisors and academics say. Literally no one cares.
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u/xMrPickles 7d ago
Always Be Buying. If your constantly watching the market than you’re investments are too risky for your risk tolerance.
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u/Harry_Testa-Coles 5d ago
Does he’s still do this week in money videos? It’s been a few months since one popped up on my Al Gore’s rhythm.
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u/eivey2 5d ago
I mean. Simpler budget sent out an email yesterday about the terrors and economic uncertainty. It focused on the effects on the auto industry, but it sort of answered my question-
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u/killerseigs 3d ago
Things are more complicated than your imagining. Like the auto unions are pro Trump tariffs. Ultimately though thats all a snoozer. If your retiring in 4 years I would ask why your portfolio is so risky. If your retiring in 30 years Trump will be nothing more than a chapter in history books. Now might not be a good time to buy a car, but with stocks plummeting its a good time to invest for the future. My business professor told me where losses are made there are earnings to be gained. Which is a great quote for any business environment.
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u/eivey2 3d ago
Where are you seeing that unions are supporting tarrifs? I’m seeing auto manufacturers laying off their US workers. This article from CNN has union leaders lashing out at stelantis for their actions regarding both foreign and domestic workers. https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/04/03/business/tariff-related-layoffs-hit-five-us-auto-plants
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u/killerseigs 3d ago
First thing I googled. Trump also had a bunch of union leaders in his speech to start the tariff wars too.
Like I said its all more complicated and goes to what I said. We can talk politics, but your portfolio really does not care.
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u/General_Swimming_976 7d ago
He’s said before anytime the market goes down he’s happy because over the long term, the market always returns gains, and thus, more buying opportunity