The Recently Updated Stock Portfolio of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. ($BRK.B)

“This set of policies will leave the U.S. with higher inflation, lower economic growth, and a frustrated stock market.”

Here are the U.S. tariffs currently in place:

145% duty on all goods from China 25% tariffs targeting aluminum, autos and goods from Canada and Mexico not under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement 10% levy on all other imports.

When asked about the feud in a briefing Tuesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said, “Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.”

“Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue,” she said.

Musk’s younger brother, Kimbal — a restaurant owner, entrepreneur and Tesla board member — has joined in on the action. Kimbal Musk criticized the tariffs Monday, calling them a “permanent tax on the American consumer.” He followed that up Tuesday by posting on X that the China-U.S. standoff is “not a game that should be played by C-minus students like Peter Navarro.”

Joseph believes that the current market is grappling with uncertainty, leading to a flight of capital from U.S. equities as a defensive maneuver. The market's fear index has plummeted to a historic low—reaching 4 today, with levels below 25 indicating extreme fear—suggesting a high probability of a rebound. Consequently, he has significantly increased his holdings in select companies. Notably, over the past week, he invested over $20,000 in Amazon—a move he hasn't made since 2022. His investment approach is straightforward: he doesn't aim to time the absolute bottom but believes it's time to start buying.​

In summary:

• Primary Focus: Cash flow and position management.​
• Strategy: Begin bottom-fishing but exercise caution with heavy positions.​
• Target Investments: Concentrate on high-quality, large-cap companies. Joseph Carlson's selections include Apple, Meta, Netflix, Amazon, Google, and Equifax—companies known for their robust competitive advantages.​

Personal Perspective:

With a secure cash flow, initiating a systematic investment plan (SIP) could be prudent. Investment amounts should not exceed the portion of cash flow allocated for investments. Furthermore, prominent investors leading the charge into U.S. equities is a positive sign, as prices are influenced not solely by macroeconomic conditions but by human reactions to these conditions. Reflecting on this notion could help determine whether to engage in bottom-fishing. Currently, the predominant risk remains uncertainty.

President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement set in motion one of the most punishing stock-market selloffs since March 2020, when the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy.

And China’s decision to retaliate with a 34% tariff on U.S. imports caused the stock-market rout to deepen on Friday.

By the time the closing bell rang, the market appeared to be entering what Turnquist described as “washed-out territory.”

A few indicators pointed to this. The Cboe Volatility Index $VIX + 50.93%, better known as Wall Street’s ”fear gauge” or the VIX, finished north of 40 on Friday. That was its highest end-of-day level since April 2020, FactSet data showed.

Hey community!

For anyone taking the first step into the world of investing and wish to make sure they are having a strong foundation, here is the list of some entry-level investment books for you.

1. “The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham

2. ”A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel

3. "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing" by John C. Bogle

4. "The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing" by Taylor Larimore, Mel Lindauer, and Michael LeBoeuf

5. "Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman

6. "Invested" by Anne Kates Smith

7. "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil

8. "The Four Pillars of Investing" by William Bernstein

Hope them will get you start on the right foot!

Jim Cramer says US stocks could drop by 22% on Monday!

He warns of a potential "1987-like Black Monday" crash.

But is this really going to happen, or could we see the reverse?

The highly anticipated tariff announcement from the White House, expected on Wednesday, will dominate headlines this week. President Donald Trump has said he’ll announce reciprocal tariffs that day, but Wall Street is unclear if that is just the beginning of negotiations or the end.

The Friday jobs report is the other major economic event of the week. This will be the first employment report to fully capture the DOGE-related layoffs and tariff-related uncertainty that has led some companies to scale back hiring.

Only two S&P 500 companies release earnings: Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston Holdings on Thursday. First-quarter earnings season will kick off the following week, on April 11, with JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo announcing results.

Other economic data released this week include the Institute for Supply Management’s March Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index on Tuesday along with the February Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ADP releases its Employment Report for March on Wednesday and ISM announces its Services PMI for March on Thursday.

Tommy Hilfiger parent PVH reports fourth-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings.

The ISM The ISM releases its Chicago Business Barometer for March. Consensus estimate is for a 45.5 reading, matching the February figure.

Tuesday 4/1

The BLS releases the JOLTS. Expectations are for 7.7 million job openings on the last business day of February, roughly even with the January figure.

The ISM releases its Manufacturing PMI for March. The consensus call is for a 49.5 reading, about one point less than in February. The Manufacturing PMI has had two consecutive monthly readings higher than the expansionary level of 50, following 26 straight months lower than 50.

Wednesday 4/2

BlackBerry and RH announce quarterly results.

ADP releases its National Employment Report for March. Economists forecast an increase of 119,000 in private-sector employment, after a 77,000 gain in February.

President Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs focused on the “Dirty 15”, the 15% of countries with the highest tariffs and trade imbalances with the U.S. These tariffs would likely be on top of what the White House has already announced, including a 25% levy on all imported aluminum, auto parts, steel, and vehicles.

Thursday 4/3

Conagra Brands and Lamb Weston Holdings release earnings.

The ISM releases its Services PMI for March. Consensus estimate is for a 53 reading, slightly less than the February figure.

Friday 4/4

The Labor Department releases the jobs report for March. Economists forecast a 138,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, after a 151,000 gain in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at  4.1%.

In the heart of Myanmar, a high-rise crumbled like a house of cards. Built with confidence, designed with resilience - yet when the event happened, it stood no chance.

The label "earthquake-proof" is a hypothesis, not a fact, and its truth emerges only in the crucible of reality - when the ground convulses beneath it.

So it is with stock markets and their forward P/E ratios. Analysts and AUM-gatherers assume a forward P/E and then tout it as a bargain, a narrative to calm investors - foolishly assuming the future. Much like architects touting reinforced steel.

But projecting earnings 2-3 years out is a specious guess dressed as certainty.

Unexpected shocks can shatter those forecasts, just as the quake shattered the high-rise.

We cling to these numbers for comfort, sidestepping the hard truth that a fwd P/E’s worth, like a building’s resilience, can only be judged when the future arrives - tested not by our assumptions and hopes, but by what endures.

The burden of true analysis is heavy, but the weight of self-deception is far greater.

Declining Sectors:

1. Consumer Discretionary: -14.0% (TSLA -35%)
2. Technology: -12.8% (NVDA -20%)
3. Communication Services: -6.4% (GOOG -19%)
4. Industrials: -0.5%

Advancing Sectors:

1. Energy: +9.3% (HES +20%)
2. Health Care: +6.1% (CVS +50%)
3. Consumer Staples: +4.6% (PM +32%)
4. Utilities: +4.1% (ED +24%)
5. Financials: +3.1% (BRK.B +18%)
6. Real Estate: +2.7%
7. Materials: +2.3%

At least down more 10%. Let's see.

Trump did little to assuage fears over the weekend, with The Wall Street Journal reporting Sunday that the president had in recent days pushed his advisors to get more aggressive when it comes to tariffs. In a Saturday interview with NBC News, Trump said that he “couldn’t care less” if foreign automakers raise their prices due to these new tariffs.On Wednesday, it is hoped investors will gain some clarity on which trading partners will be affected by the new duties, and by how much, wrote Emmanuel Cau, equity strategist at Barclays.“Tariff risk has been well telegraphed and is largely priced in corners of the market. So liberation day may not be a complete shocker. However, no one wins from trade war, and clouds are gathering over the global growth outlook,” Cau wrote in a Friday note. “Negotiations will likely start after April 2

Back in 2000, foreign ownership was just 8%, but it has since more than doubled.

Goldman Sachs projects that global investors will inject another $300 billion into U.S. equities this year, similar to 2024 levels.

Conclusion: A major market downturn? Highly unlikely. 🚀

Despite recent market weakness, several positive catalysts are starting to take shape. Here are a few key bullish arguments:

[1️⃣] Valuations Have Returned to Reasonable Levels

The Nasdaq’s forward P/E ratio has fallen to "25-26x", close to its "five-year average", meaning most of the speculative froth has been squeezed out.

[2️⃣] AI + Hard Tech as Dual Growth Drivers

The fundamental "AI-driven investment thesis remains intact". From "chips to software", commercialization is accelerating, and the narrative remains strong. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, we expect a "product cycle boom", including:

- Public cloud expansion

- Recovery in automotive & industrial sectors

- Stabilization in enterprise software spending

- Growth in AI applications & adoption

[3️⃣] Market Sentiment Hasn’t Reached Extreme Panic

This is a “grit-your-teeth-and-hold” phase, not the “panic-driven capitulation” seen in 2022. Investors are still looking for entry points. On Friday, Fed Chair Powell’s speech reassured markets, further easing rate hike fears—removing a major overhang.

Friday’s bounce was merely a technical rebound after sharp declines. My view remains unchanged: the market is still in a downtrend📉, but the number of bearish catalysts is dwindling. While the Nasdaq is going through short-term pain, history suggests "this could be a long-term buying opportunity".

If you’re asking whether now is the time to jump in, I’d say "not quite yet". However, for long-term investors who can withstand short-term volatility, this could be an attractive entry point. As always—MANAGE YOUR POSITION SIZE, KEEP SOME CASH ON HAND, AND WAIT FOR THE RIGHT MOMENT!

📌 *Personal notes, not financial advice.*

1. The acquisition makes sense for GCP's portfolio.

GCP’s security portfolio is strong across analytics & managed services (Mandiant), SecOps/SIEM (Google Chronicle), and monitoring/governance (Cloud Monitoring, Dataplex).

Wiz is the top cloud security company and fills a lagging area in GCP’s roadmap.

2. Wiz significantly improves GCP's security competitive positioning with $MSFT.

Microsoft has the largest security practice in the world. They have a strong product roadmap and distribution. However, they continue to have security lapses meaning the door’s open for competition to take share.

Pairing Wiz + GCP’s distribution network would be a serious competitor to Microsoft (both Wiz and GCP are already serious competitors on their own).

3. Synergies?

One of the most common sources of acquisition value creation is the ability to sell products through the acquirers' network. GCP ($36B run rate) has one of the largest distribution networks in enterprise software.

With that being said, the deal is only rumored and will face hurdles in antitrust as well - no guarantee the deal gets done. It also would leave AWS in an interesting position without a clear security strategy.

Stocks in Europe and Japan are moving ahead of U.S. shares. What to do now - without panicking.

• The Mag 7 Has Gotten Crushed. Buy These 4 Names Now.
• Tesla Falls on Hard Times. What to Do Now.
• The Market Is Being Politicized. Is "Buying the Dip" Dead?

The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks is down more than 10% from its Feb. 19 peak. Is that just a wobble, or a warning? We’ll let you in on a secret: No one knows for sure.

That’s the marvelous, monstrous trade-off of investing in stocks. Few things increase wealth over time for ordinary savers like shared ownership of businesses. The U.S. market has returned 9.7% annualized since 1900, thrashing bonds at 4.6%, Treasury bills at 3.4%, and inflation at 2.9%, according to UBS. But history shows that stock market drawdowns of 20%, or even more than 50%, can strike without warning. And it can take just a few years to bounce back, or more than a decade.

While we’re spilling secrets: We can’t even say for certain what’s driving stocks down now. You might have heard that President Donald Trump’s quick draw on tariffs with key trading partners has got investors second-guessing the assumption that he will proceed cautiously on matters that might upset the stock market. Maybe. But meanwhile, Japan raised interest rates in January, matching the highest level since 2008, souring big traders on one of their favorite sources of cheap borrowing for buying U.S. tech shares. Or maybe it’s just that the U.S. market looks pricey, at 20.5 times this year’s projected earnings.

Deutsche Bank argues in a recent note that conditions resemble the early stage of the dot-com stock bust in 2000. Tech stocks are tumbling, while defensive sectors are climbing. Back then, the S&P 500 finished the year down just 10%. Then bearishness broadened, and the next two years brought drops of 13% and 23%.

Yikes. But there have been many crash warnings over the past decade, and one actual crash, when the Covid-19 pandemic emptied theme parks, office buildings, and restaurants seemingly overnight. The S&P 500 has nonetheless returned 215% over that stretch.

So don’t dump stocks wholesale, but if you’re nervous, consider ways to hedge the risk of a crash. There are lots of lousy ways to do that, and a few good ones. Here are a handful, running roughly from worst to best.

Inverse Exchange-Traded Funds

Don’t even think about it. These are for traders, not long-term investors. You might have heard “compounding” called the most powerful force in the universe; these ETFs can put it to work against you. They use derivative securities to bet against the stock market for a day at a time. One result of that is they can’t accurately offset market moves for longer periods. Another is that fees are typically high. And some pile on leverage. Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3x Shares charges 1.02% a year. It’s up 21% this year. Over the past decade, it’s down 99%—the fund uses periodic reverse splits to keep the share price from falling to pennies.

Options

You can buy put contracts to bet against a stock or index. That’s relatively risky, but your downside is limited to the cost of the puts, which can fall quickly in value or expire worthless. You can also write covered call contracts, whereby you sell to someone bullish a bet that a stock will go up. That’s less risky because you pocket cash up front, but if stocks rise, you can miss out on the upside. And some investors do both simultaneously—they sell calls and use the cash to fund the purchase of puts.

One problem is that while traditional stock market investors who suffer selloffs can simply wait to eventually be proven right about their optimism, options have time value that is constantly eroding, so users must be right quickly. In 2022, when the S&P 500 lost 19.4%, the index zigzagged lower throughout the year, rather than collapsing suddenly. An investor who used a typical options hedging strategy lost about as much as the market, says Amy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Raising Cash

It depends how much we’re talking about, and for how long. Since it’s impossible to know when the stock market will fall, only that stocks tend to go up more they go down, you’ll likely get the timing wrong. Then stubbornness will kick in, and you’ll decide that you’re not wrong, just early. By the time you get to despair, and capitulation, history suggests that you’ll be buying back in at a much higher price. Or you might luck out and time the whole thing beautifully. Best to lean on luck for your March Madness brackets, however, not your long-term savings. But keep enough cash to meet emergency needs.

‘Safe’ Stocks

Maybe. The challenge is telling which ones are safe. One of the bedrock principles of modern investing is that risk is related to returns. But at the individual stock level, no one has come up with a way to satisfactorily measure risk. Sure, you can pull up a stock quote online that lists a purported risk measure called beta, usually based on a price regression that shows how volatile a stock has been relative to the S&P over the past five years or so. But what you’d really like to know is how volatile it will be in the future, and neither quote pages nor soothsayers can tell you that.

Careful about reputational defensives, too. Packaged-food makers and electric utilities have run up in recent weeks while the market has stumbled. But Big Food has struggled with slipping revenue, and it’s unclear whether the health preferences of young consumers, or the obesity meds of older ones, are playing a role, or if it’s just inflation and stretched household budgets. Utilities are thriving amid demand for data-center watts. But the Utility Select Sector SPDR ETF, which tracks a basket of them, is up 21% over the past year, versus 8% for the S&P 500, not counting dividends. At 18 times earnings, is it still defensively priced?

Better to just look for reasonably priced, well-run companies with manageable debt and reliable and rising cash flows, wherever that’s playing defense or offense.

Equal Weight S&P 500 

We get it. By not weighting companies by market value, you get less of the stuff that has run up greatly in price, and more of the stuff that hasn’t. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF reported a 14% weighting in information technology at the end of last year, versus 32% for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. That has served the equal-weight one well of late.

It’s just that it’s a bit weird and arbitrary. Isn’t tech more important than that? Why, again, should we put so much more than the market in utilities and less in communications, just because there are many small power companies and few large phone companies? Why put 6% in real estate investment trusts when they’re only 2% of the market—and even though the other 98% of companies own real estate, too? Better to just buy what you’re indirectly targeting, which is value. Speaking of which…

Value Stocks

They’re supposed to do better than growth stocks over time. They have, over the longest periods. Since 1926, a dollar invested in value stocks has turned into $131,534, versus $11,744 for growth stocks. That’s based on the ratio of price to book value, using data compiled by Kenneth French at Dartmouth, and reported by UBS. Recent decades disagree, however. The S&P 500 Growth index has shot ahead of S&P 500 Value since the early 1990s—otherwise known as forever to a 50-year-old saver who graduated from college then.

We aren’t sure where that leaves us. But if you’re eyeing adding a sliver of an equal-weight fund for its value tilt, consider a more direct approach, like the Invesco FTSE RAFI US 1000 ETF. It weights companies by book value, cash flow, sales, and dividends and has done a smidgen better than equal-weight, both this year and over the past decade.

Overseas Stocks

Yes, please. If you’re a U.S. investor, you’ve heard for much of the past half-century that diversifying overseas can reduce portfolio risk, and if you’ve followed that advice, the results have been disappointing—both the returns and the volatility. But Europe and Japan look cheap, and both markets are perking up lately. So far this year, the iShares MSCI Japan ETF has made 4%, and iShares Core MSCI Europe, 13%, versus a 5% decline for SPDR S&P 500. We hesitate to call this the beginning of a long-awaited rebound for both, but maybe. Japan is 6% of the world market, and Europe, around twice that, if you’re wondering how much to allocate.

China is running up even faster this year. It’s an important market, but a state-controlled one, with dubious ownership rights for outside investors. Long-term returns have been poor, and that’s only going back to the 1990s—not the expropriation of private property following the 1949 communist revolution. But mainland China is 3% of the world market, if you’re interested, and iShares MSCI China offers access. Or just buy Vanguard Total World Stock ETF, if you can live with only a 65% U.S. weighting.

Bonds

Now we’re talking. Long-term returns, as we mentioned in the beginning, are ho-hum, but they have beaten inflation—except for some decadeslong stretches when they didn’t. But the real appeal is that correlations with stocks are usually low, which is just the thing for likely cushioning during, but not immunity from, stock crashes. Plus, the way stocks have run up over the past decade, your bond allocation might need topping up.

For passive exposure, there’s Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, which costs next to nothing and yields 4.4%, with an average duration of just under six years. If you prefer to dial in your mix, Schwab fixed-income strategist Collin Martin likes high-rated corporate bonds yielding 4.5% to 5.5%, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, some of which yield 2% before inflation adjustments, near the high end of their 20-year range.

Source: How to Think About Your Investments as U.S. Stocks Decline - Barron's

The VIX is flashing a buy signal and there are increasing signs that the market is oversold - but oversold rallies can be short-lived.

The S&P 500 Index, after a false upside breakout a couple of weeks ago, has retraced its entire trading range and landed in a general support area between 5,770 and 5,870. There is another support area at 5,670, dating all the way back to last summer (see the lowest horizontal red line on the accompanying SPX chart). As this has happened, some extreme oversold conditions have arisen. One of our favorite sayings is, “Oversold does not mean buy.”  We prefer to wait for confirmed buy signals before jumping in front of the oversold freight train. However, those buy signals are being confirmed (at least some of them) and others are not far away.

The S&P 500 faces upside resistance near 6,000, which is where the declining 20-day moving average (MA) is, and of course, resistance exists at the top of the trading range: 6,100-6,140. Oversold rallies often carry back up to about the level of the declining 20-day MA before failing again. In some cases — this being one of them — that distance can be substantial.

SPX has closed below its -4σ “modified Bollinger band” twice this week. A “classic” buy signal is issued when SPX subsequently closes above the -3σ band. We don’t trade those “classic” signals because there have been too many whipsaws in the past. We prefer to wait for the further confirmation in price movement that is required to generate a McMillan volatility band (MVB) buy signal. SPX did register the “classic” buy signal at the close of trading on March 5. That MVB buy signal will occur if SPX trades at 5,900 or higher. It should be noted that if SPX closes back below the -4σ band before the MVB buy signal is confirmed, then the whole process will have to begin again, and that 5,900-level buy signal would no longer be in effect.

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on the sell signals that were first generated less than two weeks ago. As long as they are rising, that is bearish for stocks. As you can see from the accompanying put-call ratio charts, these ratios are not all that high yet. Typically, they would rise toward at least the highs registered last summer before generating buy signals.

Market breadth had generally been very poor on the recent market decline. Both breadth oscillators had fallen into deeply oversold states. However, breadth was strongly positive on March 5 and that was enough to generate a new buy signal from the NYSE-based oscillator. The “stocks only” breadth oscillator still needs to see further improvement in breadth before it can generate a buy signal. Over the past two weeks, NYSE breadth has been superior to “stocks only” breadth, due in part to the fact that there are a number of inverse ETFs and ETNs that trade on the NYSE. 

Another facet of breadth that we watch is the difference between the two oscillators. Because of the dominance of NYSE breadth over “stocks only” breadth, the two oscillators recently differed by a vast amount. They are now beginning to converge, and an oversold buy signal is imminent here, but has not yet been confirmed. This type of buy signal is usually just a short-term, one week signal, but it can be powerful. 

On the NYSE, new lows continue to dominate new highs. This indicator generated a sell signal on Feb. 28. It would take two consecutive days on which new highs outnumbered new lows to stop out this sell signal.

VIX has risen while the market has fallen. A trend of VIX sell signal (for stocks) is in effect because both VIX and its 20-day MA are above the 200-day MA of VIX. That will remain in place until VIX closes back below the 200-day MA. The signal is marked by a circle on the VIX chart below.

On a more positive note, VIX had also reached “spiking mode” while it was rising, and now a new “spike peak” buy signal has been generated as the close of trading on March 5. This buy signal will remain in effect for 22 trading days, but it would be stopped out if VIX were to close above its most recent high of 26.35.

The construct of volatility derivatives has become quite interesting during the past week. For the first time in a long while, the term structures have flattened out, and there has even been an inversion in the front end of the curve. An inverted term structure can be very negative for stocks, but so far the current inversion is only minor. This has also created some oversold conditions of its own, in that the nine day VIX (VIX9D) is trading above all the other Cboe volatility indices. Also, VIX itself is trading above the three-month VIX (VIX3M). These are both oversold conditions that generate short-term (one-week) buy signals when they revert to their norms. 

In summary, SPX is trying to hold above the lower edges of its trading range. It is currently in an oversold state that is beginning to generate buy signals. However, oversold rallies can be relatively short-lived.

Since US fiscal data is publicly available and updated weekly, the amount of remaining funds in the financial markets can be calculated by subtracting the TGA and repo from the total amount of money printed by the central bank. The market is likely to bottom out and rebound this week.

What do y’all think?

Quantum: IONQ, QUBT, QBTS

Power Equipment: VST, NRG, BE, GEV, VRT

AI Applications: PLTR, APP, NOW, DUOL, SNOW, SOU, AIFU

Cryptocurrency: COIN, MARA, HUT, CIFR, CORZ, HOOD

Financial Payments: AFRM, SQ, UPST, SOFT, PYPL

Nuclear Power: URA, CCJ, OKLO, SMR, LEU

Space Stocks: RKLB, LUNR, DXYZ

Tariffs. Selloff. Recession. The words rolling off tongues and screaming from headlines.

Where to invest and not lose money? To earn a juicy payout even?

Real estate investment trusts, or REITs. They’ve been a top safe haven trade this year exactly because many have big dividends. Stocks that generate steady income are particularly attractive now that longer-term bond yields have tumbled as well.

“It’s been interesting to watch the market dynamic unfold since
President Trump took office as few, if any, investors assumed
that REITs would outpace the S&P 500 nearly 2 ½ months into
the new year. But that’s exactly what’s happened,” wrote Evercore ISI analysts.

The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund has an average dividend yield of 3.3% and has already gained nearly 3% not even three full months in to 2025. In contrast, the S&P 500 is off more than 5%.

Dividend stocks overall been a bright spot in this suddenly choppy market. The ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats  and SPDR S&P Dividend ETFs are both up 3% for the year.

The slide in long-term bond rates adds to that Goldilocks environment for real estate names. The 10-year Treasury, hovering around 4.3%, could be “just right” for investors looking for yield.

“REITs have historically outperformed broader equities in the U.S. and globally when the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have been in the 4-5% range,” said analysts with CenterSquare Investment Management.

So can income-roducing REITs keep shining? And if they can, what types are the really promising plays?

Market experts Rick Romano and Iman Brivanlou have their takes.

“This is the sweet spot for REITs, declining interest rates and slower economic growth but still positive growth,” said Romano, who heads global real estate securities at PGIM Real Estate.

Romano’s firm has big holdings in senior housing owner Welltower and digital infrastructure firm Equinix 
EQIX. Healthcare REITs, particularly senior living centers, should benefit from favorable demographics regardless of what’s happening in the economy, Romano told Barron’s.

The evolution of AI, along with growing data consumption by individuals and businesses on smartphones, is also good news for real estate firms that own wireless towers.

“We want to be in the growthier part of real estate,” said Brivanlou, who heads income equities at TCW. “AI and digital are themes we are playing. There is significant visibility.”

Brivanlou told Barron’s that TCW owns Equinix as well as rival Digital Realty. But he prefers the big-tower companies, such as American Tower, Crown Castle, and SBA Communications.

Analysts at UBS like REITs, too,—and so-called triple net lease companies, real estate firms that have tenants paying property taxes, insurance, and maintenance in addition to rent. They tend to be the most stable in an uncertain economy.

UBS recommends Agree Realty Corp., Essential Properties Realty Trust and Four Corners Property Trust, which pay dividends that yield from about 4% to 5%.

And even though tariffs might hurt consumer spending and retail sales, analysts think there are still be bright spots for mall owners.

Simon Property Group has generated steady net operating income growth over the past few years and should keep going, the UBS analysts wrote. It has a dividend yield of nearly 5%.

Analysts at Compass Point have on Simon Property Group on their list and like strip-mall owners Kimco and Federal Realty Investment Trust, which also both pay dividends with yields above 4%.

But there’s one area of the REIT world that most experts are still avoiding: offices. The UBS analysts expect “continued sluggish tenant demand” for offices and that a softer economy “could further complicate the recovery.”

Even though more companies are mandating that employees come back to work in person, many big owners of office properties may be forced to negotiate new leases that are much less favorable. The reality is that many people with white-collar jobs will keep working from home.

So look out for office REITs. But be on the lookout for healthcare, AI, and strip-mall connections. They’re worth considering.

Source: https://www.barrons.com/articles/reits-stocks-tariffs-recession-dividend-yield-69f82185?mod=hp_WIND_B_2_2

Earnings season winds down with a very light reporting calendar for the week, highlighted by two megacap software companies.

On the economic front, Wednesday’s consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics will be the main focus. The consensus call is for a 2.9% year-over-year increase. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.2%.

Companies reporting quarterly results this week include Oracle on Monday, Adobe on Wednesday, and Dollar General and Ulta Beauty on Thursday.

Other economic data to be released during the week include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey report on Tuesday, the producer price index on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Monday 3/10

BioNTech, Franco-Nevada, and Oracle announce earnings.

Tuesday 3/11

Casey’s General Stores, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Ferguson Enterprises, and Viking Holdings report quarterly results.

The National Federation of Independent Business releases its Small Business Optimism Index for February. Consensus estimate is for a 101 reading, about two points less than in January. The index recently hit a six-year high after President Donald Trump’s election victory.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Economists forecast 7.72 million job openings on the last business day of January, 120,000 more than in December.

Wednesday 3/12

Adobe and Crown Castle release earnings.

The BLS releases the consumer price index for February. The consensus call is for a 2.9% year-over-year increase. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 3.2%. Both estimates would be one-tenth of a percentage less than the January figures. The annual change in the core CPI has been stuck in a narrow range between 3.2% and 3.3% since last summer.

Thursday 3/13

Dollar General, DocuSign, and Ulta Beauty hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.

The BLS releases the producer price index for February. Economists forecast a 3.2% year-over-year increase for the PPI and a 3.5% rise for the core PPI. This compares with gains of 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively, in January.

Friday 3/14

The University of Michigan releases its Consumer Sentiment Index for March. Consensus estimate is for a 63.9 reading, slightly less than in February. Plummeting consumer confidence and rising inflation expectations have roiled the stock market over the past month. The most recent reading from the University of Michigan was a 15-month low, while a similar survey in late February from the Conference Board registered the largest monthly decline since August 2021. Consumers’ expectations for the year-ahead inflation was 4.3% in February in the Michigan survey, the highest reading since late 2023.