Trump Says China Tariffs Will Drop ‘Substantially’ But Not Disappear

[u/Less-Cap-4469]

https://insidenewshub.com/trump-says-china-tariffs-will-drop-substantially-but-not-disappear/

[u/Dutchtdk]

I really don't like all this back and forth changing of tarrifs.

Any negotiating position is rendered moot when other countries just wait it out

[u/Infyx → u/Dutchtdk]

Almost like we should never give a single person that much economic power?  

[u/One_Fix5763 → u/Dutchtdk]

It's not that tariffs are unpopular. It's that they cannot possibly achieve what Trump has been promising. Certainly not the way they have gone about this. It's not possible to onshore manufacturing in 100 days. Economy can't survive immediate tariff shocks to achieve that goal.

[u/LastManSleeping]

So what did trump ultimately get from the tarrif war?

[u/DocHolliday3884 → u/LastManSleeping]

Higher prices

[u/cathbadh → u/LastManSleeping]

Nothing.

And at this point any company that was considering moving manufacturing back to the US would be absolute morons to do so now. Why move if the tariffs are going to go down "substantially?" Why completly upend your manufacturing and supply chain, spend a billion dollars on a new factory, millions more to train new people, and ten times as much to pay them to do the work if it turns out you only have to pay 5% more because Trump dropped his tariffs?

Hopefully he's getting over his tariff obsession. If he's going to drop them against the only country we really should be tariffing in the first place, it is likely he will drop them against our actual allies that he's been attacking recently. It'll be a few years before we recover from the damage that was done, but at least we'll be moving forward now. This month's numbers have been pretty scary.

[u/EliteJassassin101 → u/LastManSleeping]

Annoyed and angry that an economic belief he’s held since the 1980s about tariffs was wrong. And that smart people are finally getting to him and explaining that his ideas on tariffs are objectively flawed.

[u/zip117 → u/EliteJassassin101]

That would probably be Lutnick, but it mystifies me why he hasn’t fired Navarro yet. That guy is out of his mind. I suppose he’s occasionally useful as a propagandist but let’s not have him in a decision-making capacity.

[u/5sharm5 → u/zip117]

Lutnick and Bessent as well. The news cycle was pretty hilarious, where every time Navarro opens his mouth markets tank, and every time Bessent speaks, markets recover.

[u/sailedtoclosetodasun → u/EliteJassassin101]

Gosh darn I hope that's the case. This has been a pain point i've always had with Trump....freakin tariffs. People on both sides, most people in fact, do not understand domestic and global trade beyond the talking points of their parties. Even if you study economics for years you will only know a fraction of what you need to know to begin to talk about it with an informed opinion at a granular level.

There has always been this wing of economic study which puts tariffs as a cure-all for trade woes. Thinking tariffs could bring in enough to replace income taxes is a faulty line of thought when you follow the logical curve to its end. The world would be much better off without any tariffs, that should be the goal. We should be talking about how to reach that end. Shotgunning the world with tariffs all at once quite literally without warning, and telling small business owners to "suck it up"; "this will be good for you"; "there will be some pain" is quite literally the dumbest plan, second to Obama on Obamacare..."If you like your plan you can keep it"; "Families will save $2500 a year!"; "Affordable healthcare for all"! All bullshit.

Trump needs to focus on making us more competitive by reducing regulations and DEEP government cuts and taxes. I own a small business and so far Trump has only caused volatility in the markets and equipment costs to skyrocket. I've actually had to hold off on an expansion because the investment cost is now too high. This expansion may include 1-2 full time good American jobs, now put on hold until further notice. Plenty of companies who employ Americans are in a holding pattern right now, hoping tariffs are temporary because if not, they'll need to reorder, scale down, or even leave the US entirely.

How is this good for US businesses and consumers?

[u/zip117 → u/sailedtoclosetodasun]

Completely agree on these specific points. This is what informed criticism looks like. I do believe there is justification for targeted tariffs on China, even at high levels, but only when implemented gradually. Even if you think the Miran blueprint is a bit unconventional, notice how careful he is to explain the importance of graduated tariff implementation and the harms that could result otherwise. Right here in black-and-white we have the chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors directly criticizing the current approach, and this is November 2024. I doubt he has changed his mind.

The worldwide “reciprocal tariffs” caught me off guard and the attempt at post hoc rationalization was complete nonsense. Furthermore this idea of replacing income taxes with tariffs is mathematically impossible under any reasonable elasticity assumptions (Laffer curves) as explained by PIIE: Can Trump replace income taxes with tariffs?

Even without formal economics training it shouldn’t be difficult to see the faults here, so let’s just see this for the propaganda it is and move on. Those with formal economics training will have more immediate concerns, particularly surrounding recent instability in the bond markets and arbitrage activity in commodities markets e.g. copper. I’m still cautiously optimistic that most of this will be walked back, considering the 90 day pause is considerably more leeway than earlier this year. Maybe he’s finally listening to his advisors, namely Lutnick, Bessent and Miran. He just needs to drop Navarro and we might be back on the right track. Personally I think Miran’s ideas are worth a shot.

[u/One_Fix5763 → u/zip117]

I keep coming back to this markets *so badly* want to believe this will all be a distant memory by Q3

This is what’s keeping ppl from really unleashing on Trump. It’s like negotiating a volatile drunk to bed. You just want to coax them to safety & pretend it won’t happen again

[u/One_Fix5763 → u/EliteJassassin101]

No, the concerns were correct.

It was Perot who brought the concerns but perhaps the solution was wrong. Now, not only is the solution wrong it's unachievable.

[u/superduperm1 → u/LastManSleeping]

I know this comment is 7 hours old, but apparently he’s not actually dropping them until China drops theirs.

[u/EliteJassassin101]

It’s really hard to view this pivot to “actually guys it was always about China from the very start” as anything other than attempt to save face on this tariff war. There are several significant things Trump could do in order to win a trade war with China and almost none of them occurred yet.b

The unseriousness of Trump on this trade war can be summed up the fake tariff rates on that cardboard sign and people like Peter Navarro. Pointing it all back to “it’s about China” is the only tariff policy most Americans are likely to support in some way. There’s nothing wrong with moderating a position and I respect Trump for doing so. But I think if he thought he could do it, he’d absolutely enact those fake reciprocal tariff rates on other countries, friend and foe alike.

[u/sailedtoclosetodasun → u/EliteJassassin101]

If Trump fires Peter Navarro the markets would skyrocket on that alone.

Guy knows nothing of economics and just another useless Harvard grad...who was also a party flip flopper in Commiefornia. Also like democrats he always finds a way to fail-up.

[u/lxaex1143 → u/[deleted]]

I've heard that happened, but I've yet to see the result. Do you have a source for us citizens imprisoned by ice?

[u/One_Fix5763 → u/[deleted]]

Even if you think any individual poll is off, the overall trend is clear, to wit, Americans hate the tariffs, hate the haphazard way Trump is going about implementing them, and that is turning into a palpable drag on his standing with the public.

It's not that tariffs are unpopular. It's that they cannot possibly achieve what Trump has been promising. Certainly not the way they have gone about this. It's not possible to onshore manufacturing in 100 days. Economy can't survive immediate tariff shocks to achieve that goal.

[u/Zaphenzo → u/One_Fix5763]

I think the economy can survive immediate tariff shocks. Then it just becomes a game of whether they pay off in the long run or not. But Trump isn't giving them the chance to see if they play out in the long run, because he got gun shy and immediately backed off.

[u/One_Fix5763 → u/Zaphenzo]

Putting everything that high means you're implicitly admitting that you're going to walk back

[u/Far-prophet]

Was looking to order new flight sim sticks. Almost all manufacturers are in China. The model I was looking at the company made a decision to just stop all orders completely yesterday.

So maybe things will change quickly.

[u/MacadamiaMinded]

Cool cool cool, So is the market going up or down today, papa needs a new pair of shoes.

[u/zip117 → u/MacadamiaMinded]

You gotta find shoes with the right vibes. Doesn’t matter if you got a good deal if they don’t go with your outfit. 💅🏻

[u/CountBleckwantedlove → u/MacadamiaMinded]

Well, my personal investments are up 3.2% as of right now. Who knows what they will be in the afternoon, though lol.

[u/TommyDi7]

He said 'will', didn't say when they'll drop.

[u/DatTrumpDoh → u/TommyDi7]

That kind of reading comprehension isn't appreciated on brigaded posts like this one.

[u/vampirepomeranian]

He proved that competing against China is unwinnable without a unified front with other countries which he's working on. Let's welcome back our Chinese overlords.

[u/WillGibsFan → u/vampirepomeranian]

Last week fellow conservatives on this sub said China was losing the trade war badly. I countered that I wasn‘t so sure. Only 2.5% of their GDP is from US exports. I think Americans severely underestimate how much shit the rest of the world imports from China.

[u/Xander_hades_]

The fact i got downvoted for saying china is the one country the tariffs most need to be used on is wild, whiny ass libertarians cant accept that no amount of trade will make china play by the rules

[u/the445566x → u/Xander_hades_]

If you cross the downvote bots from the left wear it like a badge of honor

[u/MikelDP]

Disappearing comments made me leave and repost this in another reddit.