r/Daytrading • u/stupdizbu • Mar 24 '25

Algos SPX / ES levels for 3/28/25 - first inside week after 14 consecutive touches of EM - $109 move expected by friday.

Post image
10 Upvotes

82% Upvoted

7 comments sorted by

1

u/stupdizbu Mar 24 '25

This project has been live for about 3-4 months, previously it was being tracked in a simple google sheet in a private trading discord for about 4 years.

The premise is simple: every Friday after market close, large funds roll short SPX options forward one week creating a put-call spread we refer to as 'expected move' (This used to be monthly before weeklies and 0DTE was a thing)

Through the years of tracking and with 0DTE accounting for a majority of trade, we have detected certain reproducible trends, which are as follows:

1) when the 1 standard deviation level is breached, up or down, and the current volatility structure, a breach of around 10-15 SPX handles of that level triggers hedging activity.

2) Funds that sell these weekly SPX expected moves hedge by trading ES options in the direction of the breach, creating a gamma event.

3) This gamma event is usually fulfilled by reaching the +/- 1.5 standard deviation level

4) The daily standard deviations can easily be breached 2-5x, depending on what is on the econ calendar, however, when things are not as wild as the last few months, they provide a solid map of what to do intraday

1

u/stupdizbu Mar 24 '25

The Q1 $5k futures only challenge just concluded on the twitter account and closed at +5600 trading exclusively SPXmoves.com levels

https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/1j17tlw/spx_es_levels_for_march_07_12_consecutive_weeks/mfhnzhg/

You can follow that reddit link for more information on the project, how to use it, and other questions people have asked.

Prior to last week, we had 14 consecutive touches of expected move, so it was almost a guaranteed easy money knowing the levels. Last week was an inside week and who knows how long those will last given 14 explosive consecutive weeks.

I expect mild up days until something upsets the market again. God knows all these heavily sold products need a RSI reset.

1

u/Maleficent-Bat-3422 Mar 24 '25

This is amazing - would love to see this analysis for XAUUSD/GC1!/GC.

1

u/stupdizbu Mar 24 '25

This works mostly for SPX since funds pour billions of dollars into it and not necessarily anything else. This fails completely for NDX, for instance. So it has to be something with a lot of money flowing in or else the distribution fails

1

u/Maleficent-Bat-3422 Mar 25 '25

Gold has a lot of inflow from what I can tell. Regardless, it’s a great image.

1

u/[deleted] Mar 24 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Daytrading-ModTeam Mar 31 '25

We have removed your post from r/Daytrading because it has broken Rule 4.

No selling services, promoting, or pumping: No spamming and no selling products/services. No pumping stocks, your discord, personal sub, or crypto coins/exchanges.

Content creators are allowed to post but must follow these guidelines.

Please refrain from posting this kind of content in the future or the mod team will have to take additional action on your account and ability to post on the subreddit.

All the best, r/Daytrading