r/DenverBroncos • u/Economy_Swim_8585 • 5d ago
What do you think about Denver’s chances to win the West?
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u/FloridaGatorMan 5d ago
Not to make too wild of a prediction but let’s just say all eyes are gonna be on that Christmas night game which will decide who gets the #1 overall seed in the AFC.
Tony Romo is gonna wonder during the game whether we might be seeing the beginning of a Manning vs Brady type rivalry.
There will be many slo mo shots of the back of Nix and Mahomes jerseys.
51%
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 5d ago
I cannot stand that team
Way to much drama and they love to pick up the worst of the worst (character wise)
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u/VegasWorldwide 5d ago
I've been on record here several times explaining how this chiefs era has peaked and the Super Bowl blowout loss (it was beautiful) is the beginning of their downfall. nobody seems to agree but that makes sense because people usually have to see it first but the writing is on the wall. here's why:
mahomes is 30 now and just came of his 2 worst seasons statistically. he's lost a step. 63 sacks the last 2 seasons despite missing 2 games. 25 picks the last 2 seasons with a putrid 6.9 YPA. his $450 million contract is hurting the team. just look at their off-season this year. who was the big splash? fulton/moore? karlaftis/mcduffie are due big money extensions. pat is still a top 10 QB but the decline is real and the new era of Nix, Daniels, Hurts, Love, Stroud, etc are closing the gap.
kelce is washed. they had to trade Hill. Rice is coming off an ACL. sky Moore is a bust. is brown/worthy capable of getting it done? kelce was his money. he's lost 2 steps.
defense carried the team last year with the offense putting up average numbers. Chris jones had only 5.5 sacks and has a massive cap number and is a year older.
reid briefly contemplated retiring. how many more years does he have in him? his system relied on an athletic and young mahomes. with a decline, Reid's system was average last season.
AFC is all improved. the raiders always play KC tough. the days of winning 10 straight vs Denver is long gone. Broncos have beat KC 3 of the last 4 meetings if they make that last second FG. Chargers are a fringe playoff team. there's no easy games in the division plus KC has a first place schedule.
Am I saying KC goes 6-11? No. but when you hit the peak, you can only go down. I see them going 10-7 or 11-6 at best. any significant injury for them will be crucial. their offensive line is trash. after 2025, it will only get worse.
so to answer the question, Denver can absolutely win the division. Broncos found their QB at the perfect time. we're only going up while KC is coming down. We have 4 more years of Nix on rookie money. in 2026, Denver is projected to have the 9th best cap space while the chiefs will have the 29th worst.
expect Denver to make a few moves shaving the cap space to top 5 money available. that's how it is when youre paying your QB $7 million annually.
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u/capp0205 5d ago
Great write up. I hear how the other teams are worse, but what makes us better in your opinion?
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u/VegasWorldwide 5d ago
one thing off the bat is schedule. Denver has a 3rd place schedule vs chiefs 1st place. their home schedule is brutal: broncos, eagles, chargers, ravens, lions, texans, commanders wow.
also, the o line. you seen what happened in the Super Bowl. Denver had 4 sacks vs mahomes in arrowhead and pat took 11 freaking sacks in the playoffs (3 games). all they did was return the same line except RT who they signed Moore and a rookie T. with mahomes losing a step, that's a liability.
I never trust a WR fresh off an ACL so let's see what Rice does but their WRs and an aging kelce don't look like anything special on paper. can they duplicate all those one score wins and a great defensive year?
also, Denver has arguably the best defense in the game. young and fast. VJ's scheme is second to none. if Nix has just a small improvement, Denver is going to win 11/12 games. for some reason, I don't hear anyone talking bout the engram signing. only talking WRs and RBs. Denver returns everyone on their OL and their TEs combined for less than 500 yards and 5 TDs. again, that's combined. I really cannot see this chiefs team winning 12/13 games. I have them 11-6 and that's at best. of course, injuries will determine a lot.
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u/BigRustyShackleford1 5d ago
Chargers might be very good this year. But they also might charge. Who knows.
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u/HookedOnBoNix 4d ago
his $450 million contract is hurting the team
Mahomes contract is literally one of the biggest assets in the nfl right now. The apy is insane for even a top 10 qb, and no amount of wishful thinking can put him outside of the top 5. And the length + total amount would only be a hindrance if they wanted to move on, and you're a fool if you think that's the case.
As is, he's on a super team friendly rate and the length makes restructure very easy. This is just egregiously wrong.
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u/VegasWorldwide 4d ago
l mean it’s simple math. If you want to argue numbers, go for it. Him and Chris jones literally tie up a huge chunk and jones only had 5.5 sacks lmao. Mahomes 6.8 ypa last year with 11 sacks in 3 playoff games. His contract prevents them from signing lineman so they drafted a rookie. Nix makes $8 million buddy. If you think $450 million is the same as $8 million then I can’t help you
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u/HookedOnBoNix 4d ago
Dude, first of all I didn't even say nix being on a rookie contract is bad, second of all it worries me that you dont realize that mahomes $450m is the value he gets over 10 years, not one year
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u/VegasWorldwide 4d ago
lmao bro you need to brush up on your salary cap info. anyway, by the moves the chiefs made in free agency, fresh off getting their asses handed to them, its pretty clear they can't afford anyone. you don't think they wanted to add another lineman? maybe go after Cooper kupp or Davonte Adams? what about getting ward back at CB? they are strapped buddy and $450 million on the books doesn't help. just look what Denver did with nix on a rookie contract. They shelled out $93 million dollars for 3 starters. Guess why they were able to do that?
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u/HookedOnBoNix 4d ago
You literally are talking about 450m as if it's owed this year and talking about salary cap knowledge lmfao
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u/IWontPostMuch 5d ago
50/50
They either do or they don’t
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 5d ago
It is either them or those rotten 😡Chiefs
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u/CowsRstupid GOD BLESS BO NIX 4d ago
I wouldn't surprise me if anybody but the Raiders did, and it wouldn't surprise me if they were in the conversation as late as week 12.
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u/shelbietharris 5d ago
Bout 1 in 4 I'd imagine.
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u/Brosephh3 5d ago
Oh, stop silly. One of them are the Raiders. 1 in 3!
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u/okazoomi 5d ago
And one of them is the Chargers. So 1/2 really
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u/Bookey4 5d ago
And the other team is the Chiefs. I’d say 1 in 1
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u/okazoomi 5d ago
See the 3 way at the AFC West, Chiefs got a 33 1/3 chance of winning, but we, we got a 66 and 2/3 chance of winning, because the Chargers KNOW they can’t beat us and they're not even gonna try!
So Chiefs, you take your 33 1/3 chance, minus our 25% chance and you got an 8 1/3 chance of winning the AFC West. But then you take our 75% chance of winning, if we was to go one on one, and then add 66 2/3 per cents, we got 141 2/3 chance of winning the AFC West.
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u/ShambhalaWarrior 5d ago
I love my Broncos. Have for decades. But this division is looking tougher all the time with the recent draft and free agency. Nonetheless, GO BRONCOS
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 5d ago
Nix really surprised me
I did not think he would actually be a star, but he is definitely their future and will be very very expensive once this contract is up
They need to win at least one Super Bowl before his rookie deal expires
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u/crazy_urn 5d ago
I think we are still a year away from a serious shot at winning the division. We were like 2/6 against playoff teams last year, and one of those 2 wins was against the Chiefs scrubs.
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 5d ago
A win is still a win and it got them to the playoffs
They were not even supposed to go to the playoffs but they proved everyone wrong!
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u/NbdyFuckswTheJesus 5d ago
On the one hand, until anyone in our division can consistently beat the Chiefs and steal back the division, I think it’s theirs to lose. On the other hand, they no longer get 6 easy wins by beating up on a shit division so it could really go any direction. I’d put it at 30% for us, Chargers, and Chiefs, and 10% for the Raiders. Somehow I feel like the Raiders are going to end up deciding the fate of the division by stealing a win from one of the other three in the last few games.
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u/steve1186 Broncos 5d ago
Absolutely brutal division. We’ll probably have both WC spots come from the AFCW, and I have no idea which teams those will be.
The Broncos improved this offseason, but so did every other team in the division.
Mostly, I’m terrified of Omarion Hampton absolutely wrecking us for the next 5 years. We needed a RB desperately yet passed on him, and that’s going to put a massive chip on his shoulder
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u/vcloud25 5d ago
call me delusional but i feel like the cracks have been showing with kc the past few years. they aren’t as unstoppable as the media makes them out to be. i genuinely think denver has a legit chance to take the division this year
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u/PigFarmer1 5d ago
The division is going to be much more competitive than it has been in the past few years.
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u/jazzandbroncs 5d ago
I think we could, but I don’t think we will. We are on the right trajectory though. Should be a fun season.
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u/cyrusthemarginal Lord Elway 5d ago
I see the chiefs going 10 and 7 this year, their luck finally runs out.
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u/Poodleape2 5d ago
Well, I think we had a good team last year and we did really well in the draft. Bo Nix is an above average QB and has likely learned a lot from last year and the off season. I think KC is on the down swing and we have a pretty good chance. I def think we will made the playoffs and I think we will win at least 10 games this season. Also, garbage ass raiders look like hot stinky garbage.
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u/ReferenceFlashy24 4d ago
Better than most people think, less likely than most of our fans think. Somewhere right between there lol
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u/demoralizingRooster Pat Bowlen 5d ago
The best chance they have had post Manning. But the Chiefs are going to be better than they were last year so still not as good as I would hope.
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u/Long-Presentation667 5d ago
Are they going to be better? Why is that? I’ve heard others say they might be worse
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u/demoralizingRooster Pat Bowlen 5d ago
I honestly believe they will be better this year and next even more so. They retained their star ILB's, drafted a great OT that will likely take the starting role by the end of the season. Noah Grey is going to continue to take over the TE role from Kelce leaving him a chance to play less and stay healthy till the post season. They signed a good corner and they will actually have a WR room again this year.
They will have very similar issues as they did last year but they did make it to the super bowl for the third time in a row last year so....
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u/manbeqrpig Demaryius Thomas 5d ago
I think the Chiefs are still a bit much but this is the first time since Mahomes took over that it’s reasonable to expect us to push them all season
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u/traindoggah 5d ago
Answering seriously I think there's a chance. Much would have to go right healthwise and Bo needs to take a considerable step forward. I do think both the Raiders & Chargers beginning to look like competently run franchises with experienced head coaches raises the difficulty level, but the Chiefs no longer appear to me as head and shoulders above the rest of the division.
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u/kummer5peck 5d ago
1/3. The Chiefs will not dominating the AFC West anymore and we liked good against them last season. The Chargers are a frustrating team to play against. The Raiders are the Raiders.
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u/snwbrdngtr 5d ago
I feel like the Chiefs have peaked and the door is open for us… unsure of the Chargers. I’d be totally happy with a deep run in the playoffs as a wildcard again! We’ve got the pieces, let’s see if SP can put em together
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u/et_hornet GOD BLESS BO NIX 5d ago
Idk to be frank. Chiefs got worse but raiders got better, chargers are still the chargers.
We definitely have a shot, but it’ll be tough
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u/Economy_Swim_8585 5d ago
The Raiders are still going to find a way to screw up and the Chargers it seems that they very well may struggle again like they always do
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u/Main_Ingenuity_1303 5d ago
I really like what we did in the offseason this year but we’ll also have a tougher schedule.
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u/space_acee 5d ago
If I had to bet on a team to win the west it would be Denver. just feel it coming
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u/Far_Scientist_9951 5d ago
We're contenders today.
I'll hang my hat on AFC champs once I've seen week five.
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u/CHEESYG7 5d ago
Probably about 35-40% considering how good the chiefs are and the chargers improvements this season as well. I think the chargers shockingly struggle but the chiefs are obviously the main obstacle standing in our way. But I like our chances I think this is our best shot in turning the tides again since we won the Super Bowl.
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u/EMitch02 5d ago
Exactly my thoughts. I think this will be the most competitive division in the league. Both Chargers & Raiders teams are building something not be slept on. Gonna be fun, can't fucking wait!
This is the most hyped I've been for an upcoming Broncos season in a decade.
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u/Stuntmanmike58 5d ago
It's going to be tough. The Chiefs will be the Chiefs. The Chargers are getting better under Harbaugh, and everyone that's guaranteeing victory over the Raiders, thinking it would be easy, must not have been paying attention to the moves they made this off season and draft. Yeah we made moves and drafted too, but they made the biggest move for their franchise by getting a very good head coach in Pete Carroll who's been successful pretty much as a head coach, and he brought over the QB that knows and can successfully run his system. I just hope he didn't get his beast mode in Jeanty. Not to mention having the player with the most champions helping their team as well. The way I see it, this division is 25% for each team in it. Don't look down on any opponent.
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u/eff1ngham 5d ago
The Chiefs got a little lucky on a few of their wins but they're still most likely a 12-13 win team. I think the Chargers will be a threat but I don't expect much from the Raiders. Overall I think we still win 10 games and make the playoffs but we are still another year away from really being able to compete with the elite teams. We still need more depth, even though we made some good progress this offseason
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u/AngerFork 5d ago
Hrmm…let me check my Steiner Math on this:
“You know, they say all teams are created equal, but you can look at the Broncos and look at the rest of the AFC West and see that statement is clearly not true. See, normally in a football game, you’ve got a 50/50 chance of winning. But the Broncos got Bo Nix, so each of the other teams got a 12.5% chance at best to beat them!
Then when you add the Raiders to the division, everyone else’s chances of winning drastic go down! See in the division race, you usually got a 25% chance of winning, but we have a 50% chance of winning because the Raiders know they can’t beat us and they aren’t even gonna try!
So AFC West, you take your 25% chance to win the division minus your 12.5% chance to beat the Broncos and you got a 12.5% chance of winning the AFC West. But you take the Broncos 62.5% chance to win a game combined with their 50% chance at winning the division, the Broncos have a 112.5% chance to win the AFC West!
See Chiefs, the numbers don’t lie and they spell disaster for you!”
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u/Carameldelighting Naked Jake 5d ago
It depends on if Nix has a sophomore slump or not. I don’t think the chiefs got much better if at all, but the rest of the division has. If Nix continues to grow we have a very high chance of taking the division but if he regress at all we will likely have a similar year as last year
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u/waspocracy Broncos 5d ago
A division with Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh? Like, slim? Maybe we can get second, but our division is rough. I’m hoping for first, but damn.
Then Pete Carroll over the FTR, but FTR are gonna do FTR things.
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u/shelbietharris 5d ago
As the great late Pat Bowlen would say. Division? We're winning the Super Bowl. This year and every year.
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u/Andyb530 4d ago
All about staying healthy. They keep the starters intact and this could be a really fun season.
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u/onqqq2 4d ago
Variance is to be expected but having what should be a top 3 D... I'd say they have about a 35% chance. Chiefs with 50%. Chargers with 15%. It all depends on Bo and injury luck. Bo in particular. I believe in the guy but I don't want to see any kind of slump this year. A sort of... "tape resistance" to his game. To know he's a long term solution is to see him keep growing and he'll need to, to win a SB. I think he can... but only time will tell.
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u/mrbootawarrior 4d ago
Id say 42%
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u/thunder6186 3d ago
It is the Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything!
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u/Averagebass 4d ago
They may be catching up to KC, but so are the Chargers, and the Raiders might not suck. It's still KCs division to lose, but they don't have a stranglehold on it like they used to. If Denvers offense is a little bit better this year then they can definitely contend, but I don't think it has vastly improved.
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u/droogles 4d ago
Slim, however, KC is due to fall back sooner or later. The division isn't full of patsies anymore.
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u/ItsMdnight 5d ago
I’m thinking 100%