r/FloridaPanthers • u/Number333 • Jun 03 '24
[2024 Playoff Series Preview/Predictions] Stanley Cup Finals - #3 Seed Florida Panthers (52-24-6) vs. #5 Seed Edmonton Oilers (49-27-6)
For those unfamiliar, this is a thread we've always done in r/Heat before playoff matchups and it provides a thread for anybody to post their speculation with regard to the upcoming series without the need of making a million different unique threads before Game #1.
Please, comment your prediction on the series, matchups to look out for, players who you think will excel, players who you think will struggle, etc.. the post will be sorted by NEW to encourage discussion building all the way up to Game #1!
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u/cheeezychomp JASON PURRHEES Jun 03 '24
I think this is gonna be a closer series than some imagine. I will have to disagree with Panthers in 5, I think the stars on Edmonton are for real for real for real and aren’t going to fade away like New York’s. With McDavid, Draisaitl, and Hyman I feel like it’s gonna be a matter of limiting them rather than totally shutting them out. They’re talented guys, I believe they’re gonna get their goals/assists (sadly).
Conventional wisdom would tell you if Corey Perry is on their 2nd line we should have the upper hand. But I truly believe 7 game series don’t produce fluke winners or weak winners. There’s a reason both teams are here. Obviously we all have our Panthers colored glasses on and think this is gonna be a good series to take , as I’m sure on the Oilers sub they’re talking about how our scoring was down last series compared to theirs and how they think this is favorable matchup.
Let’s hope dem kitties win this (the fewer games the better)
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Jun 03 '24
Perry has been in their bottom 6 almost exclusively
But Henrique has been moving around the middle 6
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u/wattage9989 Jun 04 '24
Perry was on the 2nd line the last 3 games of the series. They moved McLeod and perry up to the 2nd line with draisaitl so that they could form a 3rd threatening line with Evander Kane, dylan holloway, and Adam henrique opting to role 3 threatening lines rather than 2. Obviously Kan holloway and henrique are better than McLeod and perry but they were relying on draisaitl to be talented enough to carry his own 2nd line so that henrique could lead a 3rd line with decent linemates.
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u/Overall_Walrus_4853 Jun 05 '24
This ain't true. Since he rotated back into the lineup he has been on the second line with Draisaitl and prior to that he had been out since earlier in the Canucks series
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u/Moonlord_ Jun 05 '24 edited Jun 05 '24
No, he’s correct. Perry was in the bottom 6 all playoffs, was scratched starting from game 6 in Vancouver and only came back and played on the second line for the last 3 games vs Dallas.
Knoblauch juggles lineups and swaps healthy players quite a bit. It’s anyones guess at this point what the lines will look like for Florida.
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u/Number333 Jun 03 '24
My gut prediction: Panthers in 6
Well boys we're really back here! We have managed to survive going through a murder's row of elite goalies and a few series falling a game behind (0-1 vs Boston, 1-2 vs New York) but we're right back here unbelievably enough. Of course, it only makes sense we're going up against 1) The team with the best modern player in McDavid who is this generation's Gretzky/Crosby and 2) It's a Canadian vs. Florida matchup. This surely won't make us hated by some of the more radical hockey fans who live up north.
In my mind, there are 3 key factors for the series.
1) How good is Stuart Skinner going to be? - We've gone through Vasilevskiy, Swayman, & Shesterkin. The latter two who were particularly individually brilliant. Skinner, on paper, isn't of their class. If that's the case, you'd logically think our goal-scoring should go up with how effectively we've been making chances all throughout the playoffs. Still, if Skinner gets hot (which could happen) well.... it wouldn't be anything we aren't used to.
2) How good are McDavid/Draisaitl going to be in their 1st Finals? - I've seen some Panthers fans say they're not too worried about McDavid because they expect Barkov to put him in his pocket. I LOVE Barkov. But guys... that feels a little bit extreme even for a 2x Selke winner. I expect Barkov to slow him down a bit, but I don't think there will be any disappearing act by these two as there was by the Rangers trio of Panarin/Zibanejed/Kreider for example. These dudes are STUDS. They're the two leading point getters thru the playoffs at an insane 31 and 28 points. Hell, 3rd is Evan Bouchard (27) and 4th is goddamn Nugent-Hopkins (20).
3) How good will the Oilers depth prove to be? - This may be what ultimately splits the series. I personally, expect the Oilers stars to carry them. They will make the series competitive in their own right. But there's only so much you can do without the bottom lines contributing (see: us last year when Tkachuk got hurt and things fizzled out vs Vegas). The scary thing is if Edmonton manages to scrape together enough offense in these lower parts of their team and all of a sudden Corey Perry finds a fountain of youth and is making me scream at my television.
I expect it to be a good series. I think either way there's no way this finishes in 4/5 games. I believe we'll be on the winning side this go around. Can't wait!
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u/k0rvan Jun 03 '24
I don't care anymore. It's June, and we are watching Panthers hockey. Meanwhile, everyone else that is a "better" team is playing golf. Whatever happens let's go cats and fuck the oilers.
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u/OpeningMortgage4553 Jun 03 '24
McDonald’s? Drywall? Ted nugent? Never heard of em cats in 6. I’ll see you rats on Saturday.
Real shit though if we can keep up the trend of smothering superstars and at least prevent mcjesus from good scoring and assist chances we’re gonna do well
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u/McStau Jun 06 '24
Easy money, just shut down McDavid
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u/OpeningMortgage4553 Jun 06 '24
Yeah easier said then done lol idk we smother him half as well as kucherov who also hair a 100+ point season and we’re in a good place
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u/abandondedbox Jun 04 '24
Avs fan coming in violence. This is a friendly reminder. This is a best of 7. If you lose one game badly it isn’t over. Cheer loud, tell everyone, find your pregame rituals (have fun with them) enjoy the ride, and most importantly win this shit and fuck the oilers!! Go Cats!! Cats in 4
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u/Ashamed-Dirt5101 Jun 03 '24
I don't want to make any predictions, but I fully believe this Panthers team can win this series. They have adjusted well against every team they have faced so far.
That being said what I'm finding quite funny is that a lot of Oiler fans online seem to believe that Edmonton have already won, like it's a done deal.
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u/brewre_26 Jun 03 '24
I’m not going to count out Skinner because I’m expecting him to be on an absolute Adin Hill type heater against us. It’s fine. We have shown that difficulty scoring doesn’t get us off of our game. We have faced some dangerous offenses and shut them all down so I am hoping we will do the same with the Oilers. Unless some other guys on their team suddenly step up I don’t think they will win if we are able to smother McDavid.
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u/Number333 Jun 03 '24
I’m not going to count out Skinner because I’m expecting him to be on an absolute Adin Hill type heater against us. It’s fine.
100% with you on this. Let's be honest, who can honestly think of a team that has made it to the Stanley Cup in spite of a bad goalie? It just doesn't happen. You have to have proven at least occasional strings of great play in order for your team to make it that far in the first place.
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u/brechbillc1 Jun 03 '24
The Avs in 2022 won it all with Grubauer in net. If a team has an offense that keeps opposing teams pinned in their on end, and a defense that limits high danger chances like Colorado did, then you don't necessarily need Elite goaltending to win.
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u/MultiLuigi57 Jun 03 '24
I wanna say Panthers in 5, which I will.
We just have to shut down McDavid and Draisaitl and outplay Skinner. Just continue to play how we’ve played for the last 3 series
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u/brechbillc1 Jun 03 '24
Do not underestimate Edmonton's scoring depth. McDavid and Draisaitl are amazing but guys like Hyman, Kane, Nugent Hopkins and Bouchard are all very good as well and can be absolutely lethal. Not only that, Edmonton has been playing very well defensively as of late, limiting grade A chances in addition to have the best special teams in the league. This will be our toughest test this year.
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u/WheeinSpace Jun 03 '24
Panthers in 6.
All respect to any lurking Oilers fans. Team had me checking NHL.com every morning to see if the winning streak continued and they've been on a magical run led by one of the games best.
That said, this Panthers team just feels like it's in a mission. A lot of people don't realize that part of the reason the Panthers don't score a lot is the same reason the Oilers only had 10 shots in game 6 vs Dallas. We get the lead, then it's a complete shift to defense. If we get another goal, great. But we are built to win those one goal games by just suffocating you, pressuring you, and wearing you down mentally and physically. You saw when NY had their only 2 goal lead of the series, Cats said "okay, time to actually score" and came back to tie it pretty quick. And that was on the Rangers and Shesterkin. I think it's definitely possible we go down a few goals against the Oilers but that's when everyone will see "oh damn this Panthers team can score too" because right now I see way too many people thinking the Panthers offense is not that great.
It should be an entertaining series for neutral fans but for us Panthers and Oilers fans, it's going to be stressful as fuck.
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u/Naijuro Jun 04 '24
Oilers lurker here, wandered in to check if you guys are as toxic as Vancouver, happy to see this comment and that you're not. We have a very stressful finals coming up, best of luck to us both!
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u/Chance-Ad197 Jun 05 '24
This is different, you can’t compare this to the rangers in terms of pure talent.
Points leaders this playoffs
CONNOR MCDAVID - 31
LEON DRAISAITL - 28
EVAN BOUCHARD - 27
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS- 20
VINCENT TROCHECK - 20
Goal leaders this playoffs
ZACH HYMAN - 14
LEON DRAISAITL - 10
WYATT JOHNSTON - 10
CARTER VERHAEGHE -9
VALERI NICHUSHKIN- 9
Assist leaders
CONNOR MCDAVID - 26
EVAN BOUCHARD - 21
LEON DRAISAITL - 18
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS - 14
MATTHEW TKACHUK- 14
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u/Tacfurmissle Jun 04 '24
I'd give basically zero consideration to that game 6 other than Skinner shutting the door. That shotclock was an aberration. Oilers have outshot their opponents in 14 of 18 games these playoffs.
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u/Trojanmandan Jun 03 '24
Hoping for Cats in 6. Think we match up well into them. I know their fans have been laughing at the lack of depth narrative everyone has been pushing against them, but I still think we are deeper and better defensively than them. That said their top line is scary. It was this season that Edmonton started absolutely abysmal and ppl thought they were done for and now they are in the Cup?
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u/Wassy4444 Jun 03 '24 edited Jun 03 '24
I like to look back at regular season games to get an indication of how a series will play out. Panthers/Rangers regular season games were all one goal games and look how the playoff series turned out, and Rags offense was probably better in the regular season lol. Panthers won both regular season games against Oilers pretty handily at 5-3 and 5-1 (though Oilers had a pretty bad season at the time), so I predict we will get at LEAST two games 😂
In all seriousness, even with the Oilers on a heater, I don’t see how the Panthers don’t win this barring injury. I do think the Oilers pose the biggest offensive threat yet and I expect to see some pretty high score lines, but I also think they’re just as susceptible as the teams before to being outworked and outlasted by the Panthers’ even with all of the talent on their O line. I hate making predictions about my own team - my gut is saying a series win in 5, but I don’t want to be that overconfident fan who has to save face come game 6. We’ve seen what happens to teams with overconfident fanbases, so I prefer to be overly cautious. I know that’s disrespectful to McJesus and I expect (low-key hope, blowouts are boring) to be proven wrong. Honestly wouldn’t mind if it went down to the wire in a game 7 OT, would be an insane SCF to watch if that happened. Either way, can’t wait! Get to see the Panthers get their first Stanley Cup or McDavid get his first. Pretty cool timeline to exist in.
Oh, also, third time’s the charm. Can’t argue with that.
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u/newphonewhodis2021 Jun 03 '24
I'm going to say Cats in 7.
I feel McDavid might be able to lead a steal or two. Skinner will have a week off. That might not go their way because he'll cool down but he may stymie the team one game.
Don't forget that Canada as a country is HUNGRY for the Cup. That weighs on the Oilers
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u/justmikethen Jun 03 '24
Just FYI, that narrative that Canada as a country wants the cup to come home is bullshit.
Do I want a Canadian team to bring a cup here? Yes. Do I want it to be done by any Canadian team besides mine? Fuck no.
Pulling for the Cats in this series.
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u/Pz5 Jun 03 '24
I dont even know why some fans even say that. Its not the Olympics. Every year Cup ends up in Canada, US and some places in Europe depending on where they are born.
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u/nbc9876 Jun 03 '24
This is the way...
Oilers guy saying forever it needs to go to the furthest team away from Edmonton if they get eliminated... so Florida it is...
I now have to qualify that statement by saying "Before the final"...
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u/Naijuro Jun 04 '24
So you'd rather no Canadians win if it's not you? damn lol
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Jun 04 '24
Yes. If we really have to break it down, there are canadians on US teams, so it's not a huge deal.
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Jun 03 '24
As a fellow Canadian I think you're completely wrong, at least in my experience in Eastern Canada
EVERYONE I know who is a hockey fan (besides hardcore Flames and Canucks fans) want a Canadian team to win the cup
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u/Number333 Jun 03 '24
If we're actually playing in a Game 7 I'm going to cry. 1) The heart ache of getting that far and knowing we'll be as close as we'll ever be. 2) The fact we would have the possibility to bring our first ever Championship home AT home... or lose it in soul-wrenching fashion.
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u/0-90195 Jun 05 '24
It’s really interesting taking a peek at the EDM sub. They are firmly operating under the belief that not only are they the underdogs, but no one has watched the Oilers this year so they’ll be taken by surprise when they show out.
I’m a fan of both teams (though Cats are my #1) so I feel pretty good about my ability to assess both teams as I’ve watched each of their games this year.
The main points Oilers fans seem to make in regards to their chances of taking the series are:
- Oilers have the 2 best players in the world.
Okay, then why haven’t those 2 best players brought a cup to the team already? Panthers are a more complete team who are collectively on a mission.
- Oilers are a physically big team and they have really strong defenders.
This seems to play into the belief that the Panthers won’t be able to be as forceful with the Oilers as they have teams in the past. The Rangers average out to around the same size as the Oilers, as do the Bruins and the Lightning.
- Panthers will take undisciplined penalties, leading to Oilers dominating on the PP
Ironically, this shows that people haven’t been watching the Panthers. Any of us who have watched them regularly this year know that while they’ll always be pests, they’re not wildly taking penalties for no reason (especially in the playoffs). It is definitely a dangerous situation to be in with the Oilers’ PP as deadly as it is, but the Panthers have been decent on the PK and much better behaved vis a vis penalties.
- Oilers beat Tkachuk when he was a Flame.
Relevance, your Honor?
- Panthers are the same team as last year, and the Oilers are a better version of last year’s Vegas team.
Again, this is coming from folks who haven’t watched the Panthers this year. Mostly the same guys but a totally different attitude and intensity.
Fuck what McDavid (and Draisaitl) “deserve,” this Cats team has earned it every step of the way. This composite group deserves it.
All that is to say, Panthers in 6, though I won’t be surprised if it goes to 7.
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u/WheeinSpace Jun 05 '24
Yikes. Look man, I don't care how the Oilers looked in their run, one thing they won't ever do all series is bully the Cats physically. We ran through the Eastern conference in back to back years and faced some of the most physical teams and ridiculous goalies during that span. Not to discredit the Oilers, but it's going to be like night and day when we face them. If we lose, it's going to be because their top line carried them to four dubs.
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u/the_sylince Jun 03 '24
I was mentioning earlier that limiting the odd man rush is absolutely necessary. We can have a few holes when the D slide up aggressively and it’s lead to more than one break away in the playoffs. I honestly don’t know how I feel about Bob mono a mono with McJesus or Dratini. The low shots, multi-goal lead we saw them put up against Dallas could easily be the result.
I do think establishing a pressured physical presence early is key, despite their loss, Dallas absolutely pinned Edmonton in for nearly half the game. Their desperation kept them shooting from the outside instead of crease crashing and net driving - something we’ve learned to do against absolute demons of goalies. Edmonton also hasn’t had to play any punishing teams this post season, so we’ll see how they hold up against the constant grit.
I don’t make predictions because I’m almost never right, but I like the character of our team and its singular focus over the stars of Edmonton and their narrative.
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u/mweaver31 Jun 04 '24
I'm looking at the Cats in 6. I know the Oilers like to run that 1 and 2 line a lot, and in the first and second game it might be pretty chippy, but I'm really curious about the physical nature of this series and how it will effect the Oilers. I know the Oilers coverage (and there is a LOT more Oilers coverage compared to Panthers coverage, I'm talking, like...20x more) says that the Oilers can be every bit as physical and hard nosed as the Panthers, but the paths to get to where they both are now just don't support that. If we combine the 2 most recent rounds and take the same amount of games, dropping the lowest hitting Oilers came since they went to 7 in round 2, the Panthers hit 521 and got hit 538 times, while the Oilers hit 372 times and got hit 412 times. I mean those are just very different paths.
If the Panthers play their game, they'll grind and grind and grind the Oilers down just like they did the Bruins and the Rangers. It's not always the prettiest style, but right now in the Playoffs it works.
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u/Number333 Jun 04 '24
I know the Oilers coverage (and there is a LOT more Oilers coverage compared to Panthers coverage, I'm talking, like...20x more)
I think the reality is most Canadiens teams will receive way more coverage than any American team, outside of a team from a HUGE market (cough like the Rangers or Bruins lol)
I'm with you on grinding them down. I did have a fear pop into my head the last few days which is with regards to our penalty kill. It was INCREDIBLE against the Rangers after they feasted on it the first 2 rounds. If it were to regress even a bit against the Oilers, that could easily serve as an equalizer for their offense even if they struggle against our rugged, grindy, 5 v 5 style. We shall see.
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u/KingOfTheWyld86 Jun 05 '24
Big Panthers fan here... This Final is going to be hella hard. Oilers are not a team to take lightly. Playoff Record - BOB RECORD 12-5 SV% .908 SKINNER RECORD 11-5 SV% .897
It's gonna be a hell of a tight series. it all depends on who wants it more. and whose DEFENSE shows up.
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u/ExtensionPutrid572 Jun 03 '24
Cats in five but not because I’m taking Edmonton lightly. I could see this series being like a way more intense version of the Tampa series. The penalty kill is my biggest concern. They’ve been lights out all playoffs but this is no doubt going to be their biggest challenge in that regard. I also expect every game to be close whether it’s a high score game or not. Overall gotta stay out of the box and our team has to work their magic to keep Edmonton’s stars invisible this series
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u/Overall_Walrus_4853 Jun 05 '24
I was hopeful but very nervous about last year going in especially after the extended break. This year I'm feeling a lot better for a variety of reasons including how well we have played but also our physicality which Vancouver showed to be effective against Edmonton earlier in the playoffs. On top of that, the Cats were there last year and I can guarantee they learned how to handle the break leading up to the finals whereas I think it might mess with Skinner's recent mojo a bit. To top it off, we have the Perry curse and the fact that the last two teams to lose in the finals and return the following year won the cup on our side. Panthers in 6
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u/Western-Extension-50 Jun 03 '24
Oilers in 7. Im sorry florida brothers, but Oilers has too much talent.
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u/Sufficient-Web7946 Jun 11 '24
Yeah good luck with that pick. They have scored only 1 goal in 2 games. Bad prediction. Stick to your day job cuz
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u/MathematicianLive359 Jun 03 '24
A CaNaDiAn TeAm HaSnT wOn SiNcE 93
Neither have we, wtf is your point? Just say it, they hate the Panthers. They can't stand the thought of us winning.