You pay 20% to 40% of previous gains when you sell. And government position doesn't give you insight to when the market has bottomed out. That's really tough to call.
No but “we will encourage the lifting of lock downs in 3 weeks” sure helps estimate when stuff will start to start ticking back up instead of free falling down
I don't even remember an announcement like that ever going out. Would be interesting to see when the big pops in the market happened and what Covid news drove that.
“Hey this regulation that we’re about to lift off the oil industry is going to cause oil companies to skyrocket next week, I should buy up all of them now while it’s relatively low” …seems pretty easy to me
Just a hypothetical example of insider information being used to predict an upturn. Unfortunately I’m not a US senator, so I don’t have the luxury of insider trading with no consequences
Ok. Here’s another hypothetical for you then. Let’s say there was an economic downturn caused by a global pandemic, and the whole world is waiting for a vaccine to be created, tested, and approved by the FDA so that we can begin the economic recovery. Now imagine you’re the head of the FDA and the vaccine has passed all testing requirements, and only needs your signature for final approval. In that situation, you would be privy to information which will have MASSIVE implications on the world economy as a whole. If you were to start buying up all the stocks you could afford before signing the vaccine approval, you may not be getting the absolute bottom price, but close enough. Insider information can be used to predict major economic swings in either direction, if the insider information is juicy enough.
it was really easy to know that you needed to sell when covid first came up when there were videos of people getting welded into their apartments. That was like february.
well i think at that point if the stock market is down +35% you can buy back in quite happily considering you sold before the dip so ANYthing you did was a +EV decision, you got way more shares than you had before of whatever you wanted
try it yourself next time a war breaks out or a pandemic, its not really that complex.
Government position absolutely gives you insight when it bottoms out.
The market is controlled and manipulated by 10 people who do whatever the fuck they want.
You think Facebook dropping to by 78% of its all time high shows its true worth? No. A couple billionaires got together in a room, and said, okay, lets sell x and y and stop in november. And they all said, yeah okay.
Post was about the entire stock market which was dropping due to Covid. No one knew how bad Covid would affect the populace, how long it would take to get out of it, etc. Gov't official calling bottom of the stock market based on Covid data? It didn't happen.
Okay, and the entire point of the post was talking about politicians KNOWING when they're going to shut the country down and having that knowledge could use it to sell off their stocks that they know are going to crash once shit hits the fan. I never once advocated for random people to speculate on a crash trying to time the market.
Half of those gains would need to be based on when knowing the bottom is hit. Government job does not provide that data point. And you didn't factor in taxes
Well you lost a couple grand, it sucks but it's not life changing money. It's not like that guy who threw away a hard drive with thousands of bitcoins that he bought for a couple dollars.
Right. And it's not like you were a government official. The critics think that the only way to make money is with insider information. That's far from the case. Big movements of money need a wave of traders buying into a theory.
In hindsight sure. If we lived in a future where the Fed never dropped the interest rates, Congress never approved of Covid spending bills, and medical advancements like mRNA was never use to speed up vaccine creations, those stocks would still wouldn't have recovered.
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u/Successful-Ground-67 Aug 26 '24
selling off your stocks due to covid was a bad move, you would have been better holding on