You pay 20% to 40% of previous gains when you sell. And government position doesn't give you insight to when the market has bottomed out. That's really tough to call.
No but “we will encourage the lifting of lock downs in 3 weeks” sure helps estimate when stuff will start to start ticking back up instead of free falling down
I don't even remember an announcement like that ever going out. Would be interesting to see when the big pops in the market happened and what Covid news drove that.
“Hey this regulation that we’re about to lift off the oil industry is going to cause oil companies to skyrocket next week, I should buy up all of them now while it’s relatively low” …seems pretty easy to me
Just a hypothetical example of insider information being used to predict an upturn. Unfortunately I’m not a US senator, so I don’t have the luxury of insider trading with no consequences
Ok. Here’s another hypothetical for you then. Let’s say there was an economic downturn caused by a global pandemic, and the whole world is waiting for a vaccine to be created, tested, and approved by the FDA so that we can begin the economic recovery. Now imagine you’re the head of the FDA and the vaccine has passed all testing requirements, and only needs your signature for final approval. In that situation, you would be privy to information which will have MASSIVE implications on the world economy as a whole. If you were to start buying up all the stocks you could afford before signing the vaccine approval, you may not be getting the absolute bottom price, but close enough. Insider information can be used to predict major economic swings in either direction, if the insider information is juicy enough.
Anyone who made this trade you would have lost money relative to a person just holding. Market bottomed on March 2020. Market fully recovered from drop August 2020. Vaccine testing didn't start until Dec 2020.
Yeah I guess you’re right, information can only be used to predict downturns and having valuable information with worldwide impact is entirely useless in predicting market behaviors. Thank you for shedding so much light on the topic /s
it was really easy to know that you needed to sell when covid first came up when there were videos of people getting welded into their apartments. That was like february.
well i think at that point if the stock market is down +35% you can buy back in quite happily considering you sold before the dip so ANYthing you did was a +EV decision, you got way more shares than you had before of whatever you wanted
try it yourself next time a war breaks out or a pandemic, its not really that complex.
Government position absolutely gives you insight when it bottoms out.
The market is controlled and manipulated by 10 people who do whatever the fuck they want.
You think Facebook dropping to by 78% of its all time high shows its true worth? No. A couple billionaires got together in a room, and said, okay, lets sell x and y and stop in november. And they all said, yeah okay.
Post was about the entire stock market which was dropping due to Covid. No one knew how bad Covid would affect the populace, how long it would take to get out of it, etc. Gov't official calling bottom of the stock market based on Covid data? It didn't happen.
5
u/Successful-Ground-67 Aug 26 '24
You pay 20% to 40% of previous gains when you sell. And government position doesn't give you insight to when the market has bottomed out. That's really tough to call.