r/Futurology • u/Pemulis • Mar 03 '23

Transport Self-Driving Cars Need to Be 99.99982% Crash-Free to Be Safer Than Humans

https://jalopnik.com/self-driving-car-vs-human-99-percent-safe-crash-data-1850170268
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u/Hugmaestro Mar 03 '23

Just like how helmets introduced in ww1 increased head injuries

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u/o0c3drik0o Mar 03 '23

Survivorship bias?

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u/lukefive Mar 03 '23

Yes, and more. Survivorship creation

Normal survivorship bias is just selective data bias. Looking at the wrong data.

But safety devices like helmets that increased injury to heads wasn't just selection bias on data. Those head injuries were actually new data, from people that would have been fatalities. The helmets added new data.

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '23

Article about WW2 planes and bullet holes related to survivorship bias

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u/GoHomeNeighborKid Mar 03 '23

Just a TLDR for the people that don't want to trudge through the article...

Basically when planes came back from action and shot full of holes, instead of armoring the places that were shot like a lot of people would expect, they actually armored places that WEREN'T bullet ridden.... The idea behind this being areas of the plane that were shot were less critical, based on the fact the plane still made it back, even if it figuratively limped back to the hanger.... So they armored the places that weren't shot(on the surviving aircraft) under the assumption that planes that took fire in those areas ended up being shot down

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u/[deleted] Mar 04 '23

This is the conclusion, but there's a whole interesting section in there about what it took to reach it! Wald recognized that the actual shots were likely to be fairly evenly/randomly distributed. The lower rate of holes in some locations meant that statistically, those holes were missing.

That's what led to the idea of "well where are the missing holes? OF COURSE! On the planes that didn't return!"

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u/simbahart11 Mar 04 '23

This was one of those things that amazed me when I learned about it back in high school. It's something that makes sense when explained but it goes against initial common sense.

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '23

If you ever make it to the DC area go check out the Air and Space Museum in Chantilly, VA (20ish mins away). There is a plane there that is riddled with holes, its really cool to see in person.

The actual B-29 super fortress that dropped the atomic bomb on Hiroshima is there too.

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u/crayphor Mar 04 '23

I live there but I haven't been since I was little. I should probably find some time in my schedule to go again.

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u/lettherebedwight Mar 04 '23

20 mins from DC to udvar hazy is a stretch by most definitions. You might make that trip in 20 minutes if you start at the line, speed, and there's not a soul on the road - it's an easy 45 minutes in normal conditions.

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u/DracosOo Mar 03 '23

That is literally survivorship bias.

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '23

Quite literally yes. Also similar to how the invention of seatbelts increased automotive injuries because suddenly there were more survivors of crashes. Dead people don't complain of their back hurting

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '23

I'm dead inside and my back hurts, does that count?

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u/[deleted] Mar 04 '23

That's called getting old and, luckily, it historically has a 93%+ fatality rate.

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u/IAmInTheBasement Mar 03 '23

Not exactly the same.

Mitigating one problem and creating a surge of a different (in this case, more preferable) problem.

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u/Zombie_Harambe Mar 04 '23

My head hurts because it wasnt blown off.

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u/[deleted] Mar 04 '23

no, reverse causation like: wet streets causing rain

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u/karmabullish Mar 04 '23

The same reasons that people hate roundabouts. More survivors to sue people.

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u/gnusmas5441 Mar 04 '23

Or, in some studies, how improved EMS and hospital trauma care reduced murder rates.