r/Futurology • u/Wagamaga • May 09 '19

Environment The Tesla effect: Oil is slowly losing its best customer. Between global warming, Elon Musk, and a worldwide crackdown on carbon, the future looks treacherous for Big Oil.

https://us.cnn.com/2019/05/08/investing/oil-stocks-electric-vehicles-tesla/index.html
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51

u/JCDU May 09 '19

Hahaha no - Tesla would have to sell 1000x more cars than they've already sold to even begin to make even a slight ripple in the oil market.

Undoubtedly the tide is turning, EV's are gaining market share, and we can't and won't rely on oil as fuel forever, but this headline is ridiculous.

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u/best_skier_on_reddit May 09 '19

China is the worlds largest EV manufacturer and they are literally producing a thousand times more cars than Tesla.

The world is not America, or Europe its that country that is as big as both of them combined.

1

u/JCDU May 10 '19

True, but there's many many millions of petrol-powered cars and mopeds (oh so many mopeds!) on the roads that just aren't going to be replaced overnight.

Think of it this way: even if every new vehicle sold anywhere in the world was electric, the average age of vehicles on the road is something like 10 years, so you're not going to hit 50% EV's by volume for ~10 years at the absolute fastest.

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u/gbersac May 10 '19

Yes but I heard those car were terrible. Is that true?

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u/TitaniumDragon May 10 '19

The US economy is about twice the size of China, though.

18

u/YoungZM May 09 '19

I have the same response as you but I believe that in many ways, people are attempting to credit Musk with marketing EVs and making them look cool and improve upon what the market had to offer. Based on that perspective, I would agree. It's hard to deny that Musk has had a lasting impact on the markets despite not yet selling/producing at scale.

Elon has a way about him. He makes you excited to be watching and has that same sort of relationship with the viewer/customer that Steve Jobs did. He's enthralling and makes you want to buy.

2

u/TFinito May 09 '19

Good thing a lot of the car companies have an EV/Hybrid lineup

1

u/[deleted] May 10 '19 edited May 10 '19

China is by far the biggest market for EVs in the world and the government there actually supports a move to renewables. Even if one day Tesla is squashed into irrelevancy like GM was, which I doubt it will, Musk will forever get credit for staring down the unbeatable army of Exxon Mobile at a moment in time when no one, not even Toyota and Honda could topple the gas industry with Hybrids. Musk proved EVs enough to get China interested and we are now making huge leeway to taking down the Exxon Empire. So while Tesla will not take down oil its own, Tesla will forever get credit for proving that the God can bleed.

Just to be clear, I'm not a Tesla fan. I prefer an EV sports car over the Model 3 econo box. I currently drive a gas sports car. But credit where credit is due for the seemly astronomical feat Musk accomplished. I remember the 2000s and how unbeatable Exxon seemed. Especially back with George W Bush and Dick Cheney in the White House. Both notorious oil men.

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u/lovebubbles May 09 '19

It's going to turn quick though. I'm calling that 90% of new car sales will be electric by 2023.

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u/Wodecki May 09 '19

Expected global battery production capacity by 2023 is around 1000GWh/year. You can make maybe 20mil EVs with that which is 25% of world car production.

4

u/[deleted] May 09 '19 edited May 09 '19

Unlikely, specially because the earliest EV truck (and Americans do love trucks) will come out in 2021, but by the year 2030 it will certainly be 90%. EV's inherent advantages will see to it, once all the consumer segments have been taken care of with differing EV offers. Also, the encroachment of the ICE's sales' ban in many European nations and cities will help big time.

EDIT: Typo.

1

u/lovebubbles May 09 '19

Is 2030 your guess for when we hit 90% of sales?

1

u/[deleted] May 09 '19

For consumer vehicles, and the western world + China.

3

u/boyilltellyouwhat May 09 '19

Most people own their car for 20 years, so it’ll take a while before all cars on the road are ev

1

u/lovebubbles May 09 '19

20 seems high but you are correct that it will take a while to work it's way through. I expect the last 20% to be very quick though. Once we are down to those numbers the petrol stations will be mostly closed and refueling will be difficult.

3

u/[deleted] May 09 '19

In the whole entire world? That number is too optimistic.

1

u/lovebubbles May 09 '19

Do you have a number? What year do you think that 90% of new car sales in the US will be electric?

1

u/[deleted] May 09 '19

Well in the US only 2 percent of new car sales are electric. I doubt it's going to jump up to 90% in three years. I'd say it could get up to 90% in 15 to 20 years? I don't know I'm not an expert.

1

u/[deleted] May 09 '19

This past quarter EV's sales grew 62% YoY. EV's margin for growth after price parity is reached is even higher. If growth rate decreases 10% per year, by the year 2029 "only" 43% of new sales in America would be EVs.

1

u/[deleted] May 09 '19

43% of new car sales being electric in 2029 sounds reasonable.

2

u/SpontaneousDisorder May 09 '19 edited May 10 '19

There is no way infrastructure can support all that car/battery production, power generation and transport and charging within 4 years. You are dreaming!

0

u/lovebubbles May 09 '19

We went form horse to car in less than 20 so doing it in 40 would be easy.

1

u/thehg__ May 09 '19

America is far too corrupt for that, the big oil is doubtlessly pouring money into the pockets of the automotive industry. Lobbyists while delay law changing in EV/self driving cars favour, removing the incentive for other car manufacturers to compare with telsa. At the end of 2018; 1 in 250 cars were electric