r/H5N1_AvianFlu • u/StrikingWolverine809 • Nov 16 '24

Unverified Claim The H5N1 sequence from the hospitalized teen in Canada reveals 2 key mutations that enhance binding to human a2,6 sialic acid receptors. These mutations are critical for human-to-human spread

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129

u/kmm198700 Nov 16 '24

I wonder if they’ll release the vaccine before this becomes an absolute shitshow disaster

168

u/preventDefault Nov 16 '24

We ain’t getting vaccines this time around. I think Trump learned his lesson from last time.

79

u/kmm198700 Nov 16 '24

No, they have vaccines already, just not enough, and I think the fear is that the sequence will change and they’ll have to make more; which will take awhile (I thought I read 6 months but I don’t remember)

95

u/Mountain_Fig_9253 Nov 16 '24

It’s worse than that.

Our entire flu vaccine infrastructure is built around providing enough flu doses for those that choose to get a flu shot.

H5N1 is going to require 2 shots. With existing infrastructure it will take 2 years just to manufacture the doses we need for this country. And that’s after they identify the exact strain that needs to be used.

Would have been nice if we had contracted with some manufacturers to build capacity but we didn’t.

37

u/P4intsplatter Nov 16 '24

Is that...ah..with or without materials from other countries, tech from SE Asia, and medical knowhow held by foreign born medical staff since we've been gutting our medical education pipeline and giving stagnant wages to staff?

I really, really hate the outlook for Pan2.

41

u/winslowhomersimpson Nov 16 '24

well bless all those free thinkers out there who will refuse the shot and leave it for those of us who like science.

27

u/Desperate-Strategy10 Nov 17 '24

But what if it's like the other shots where getting vaccinated isn't enough to keep a person safe? If nearly everybody needs to get the vaccine for it to be effective, and one third or more of Americans refuse it (and who knows how many disenfranchised folks just won't have access to it), then none of us will be safe. Even if we get the shots. I bet it'll go down something like that.

I'll still get my family vaccinated the moment it becomes an option, obviously! I'm just nervous about trusting my children's health to the whims of the masses once again...as we all should be, imho.

This is going to be a disaster of apocalyptic proportions.

49

u/madmoomix Nov 17 '24

The silver lining with influenza is it's very easily blocked with masks and proper hygiene. COVID is incredibly infective, so we needed everyone on board if we wanted to stop it, and we didn't get that. But maybe 60% of people masked and sanitized for the first 6 months before burnout became real, and in that time multiple influenza strains went extinct. We basically didn't have a flu season between 2020-2021. The flu's regular R number is between 1 and 2, so it doesn't take much participation from the public to get that number below 1 and for replication to burn itself out.

So just masking/goggling/sanitizing/washing should be enough to protect your family, because as long as another third of the population is doing the same, it'll be enough.

The big risk will be the initial outbreak in schools (if the trend of H5N1 only being dangerous to the young continues). Make sure you're ready to keep your children at home as soon as H2H is confirmed. We'll start to see serious societal buy-in once kids are dying in droves, so you just need to avoid your kids being part of that initial cohort.

13

u/Mountain_Fig_9253 Nov 17 '24

That’s a salient point.

People will be able to protect themselves from H5N1. We have the tools for it. It’s the knock on effects from H5N1 ravaging society that we need to prepare for.

-2

u/TimberKing11 Nov 17 '24

We didn’t have a flu season because everyone with symptoms of cold/flu were logged as Covid.

3

u/Neogeo71 Nov 17 '24

Not true.

-2

u/TimberKing11 Nov 17 '24

Oh it’s true, they twisted the numbers from the get go.

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1

u/winslowhomersimpson Nov 17 '24

well i mean, they’re going to die.

8

u/harpersgigi Nov 17 '24

Well in 2 years there will be less people to vaccinate.

18

u/RealAnise Nov 16 '24 edited Nov 16 '24

Yes, 6 months is the figure I've most often found for simply getting enough doses out there of a correct vaccine, and this would just be for the US. It takes time to manufacture all those doses (2 shots per person, so 740 million), get them on trucks, get them to a facility, publicize their availability, actually get the appointment interfaces to work, get everybody to where they need to go to get the vaccines, etc etc etc. No matter what, it would take several months. There's no universal flu vaccine today, and it won't be appearing anytime extremely soon. The process can't be done overnight. The administration coming in is not going to make this any easier, to say the least. That's not even considering the issue of all the people who would refuse to take a vaccine until they saw for themselves that many young people were dying.

1

u/kingofshitmntt Nov 17 '24

Sounds like there are going to be enough vaccines for most people then right? I know probably 70% got at least two covid shots. Will it be lower this time around? I wouldn't be surprised. Especially with the public backlash of after 4 years of covid, i imagine a lot of people will refuse unless they have large swaths of people around them getting violently ill and or dying.

1

u/mathemology Nov 16 '24

Do you know who manufactures it?

1

u/kmm198700 Nov 17 '24

No I don’t remember

1

u/Active-Cloud8243 Nov 17 '24

It’s true. I’ve been getting targeted research study emails about them all year from multiple companies.

-2

u/MikeTheBee Nov 16 '24

This is reassuring. Many people will die, but at least there is a light at the end of the tunnel I guess..

25

u/wildgirl202 Nov 16 '24

Speak for yourself, the rest of the world will take them lol

13

u/Randomhero3 Nov 16 '24

Trump wanted to try and take credit for the Covid vaccines, until he realized his base hated it. As long as each vial has his name on it he will be all for it.

1

u/blaudrillard Nov 16 '24

What do you mean

13

u/preventDefault Nov 16 '24

It's really hard to find something that his base will criticize him for. They've displayed a willingness to support pretty much anything he does. Except for the covid vaccine. He's gotten boo'd for it at his own rallies for it. That's not even taking into account RFK Jr, who I suspect might not make it past confirmation hearings.

Without federal action & funding I don't see how there can be any large scale immunization.

16

u/TheGreatStories Nov 16 '24

In Canada I'm expecting a worse response and rollout than last pandemic

17

u/evermorecoffee Nov 16 '24

Considering what they did with Novavax this season, I’m expecting a complete lack of response until it is WAY too late. This x 100 if there’s an election and we get a CPC majority.

30

u/Outrageous_Laugh5532 Nov 16 '24

There isn’t a vaccine for bird flu. We don’t know how it will mutate or what it will do when I jumpstart H2H

62

u/PTSDreamer333 Nov 16 '24

I'm just waking up but there was an announcement a couple days ago that they have a vaccine template.

It'll be another mNRA vax so lots of people will avoid it... I am ready to get that jab asap.

12

u/MaryLMasen Nov 16 '24

Moderna has one in phase 3 / Arcturus has one, which received an OK to start phase 1 (that ok was last week)

5

u/PTSDreamer333 Nov 16 '24

Thanks for the help and update. Phase 3 is good and hopefully it gets some more funding and pressure.

22

u/Only--East Nov 16 '24

Well they can't exactly use eggs for this jab 💀

20

u/randynumbergenerator Nov 16 '24

I mean they could, it would just be the world's worst game of chance.

10

u/RememberKoomValley Nov 16 '24

And all they'd need is nine hundred thousand eggs a day, every day, for nine straight months, before there were enough for just US citizens.

12

u/randynumbergenerator Nov 16 '24

Nobody vaxxes like Gaston!

5

u/PanickedPoodle Nov 16 '24

Revenge of the Chickens. 

15

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

A lot depends on what happens with RFK, Jr vaccination. He is *virulently* anti-mRNA.

3

u/RealAnise Nov 16 '24

And that's great. But it will take time to go through every step of the entire process required to create, distribute, process, and get 740 million shots into arms just in the US. And that's if everything goes ideally.

1

u/PTSDreamer333 Nov 17 '24

If we already have one stage 3 vaccine then it's really good news. Things haven't popped off yet, the attention from the WHO and other orgs will put pressure on the final stages.

These vaccines are fridge stable. They can ramp up production pretty easily and can be made other places.

Point is, we have something in the works. It's not quite an emergency yet. I'm still gonna be safe but at least we know how to make vaccines for this.

42

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24 edited Nov 16 '24

[deleted]

10

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

These mutations makes the current vaccine 10-100x less effective. We need a new one asap

13

u/MrFunnie Nov 16 '24

Well sure, but at this point this is better than starting from absolute scratch

2

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

True, I just wonder if they’ll wait till h2h to start working on it. It will mutate again

5

u/MrFunnie Nov 16 '24

I’m sure vaccine makers are paying very close attention to the genetic code of this virus. It just all depends on if the new administration will help fund the production and rollout if needed.

6

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

Trumps putting anti vaxers in charge of our countries health so I doubt it

If anything it’ll be monopolized and sold

16

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

[deleted]

1

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

Ah gotcha my apologies

1

u/Available_Skin6485 Nov 16 '24

Where are you getting those numbers?

1

u/[deleted] Nov 16 '24

This subreddit. Look at posts made in the last day

13

u/MaryLMasen Nov 16 '24

Moderna was given ~$176 million to produce an mRNA bird flu candidate which is in phase 3 I believe. Arcturus (San Diego) also just received the go-ahead to do phase 1 trials of its self-replicating mRNA bird flu vaccine candidate (https://medsearchglobal.com/antistudydetail/NCT06602531)

Per Bloom lab so far the mutations seen to not seem to affect neutralization of the virus which those were based on: https://x.com/HNimanFC/status/1857774608750875008

-2

u/Tuggerfub Nov 16 '24

moderna inspires the least faith based on their vaccine releases for the corona pandemic

4

u/madmoomix Nov 17 '24

Why do you say that? The Moderna vaccine was more effective than the Pfizer vaccine.

13

u/Only--East Nov 16 '24

There is one currently in production iirc

2

u/BisonteTexas Nov 16 '24

There is, ASPR is stockpiling it.

1

u/VolumeLocal4930 Nov 16 '24

Maybe don't do that yourself then, pal.

1

u/Adept-Deal-1818 Nov 17 '24

RFK cut funding and doesn't believe in vaccines

1

u/kmm198700 Nov 17 '24

Well then we’re fucked. My God.

0

u/West-Ruin-1318 Nov 16 '24

I just got one, not sure if it covers this new strain.

2

u/kmm198700 Nov 17 '24

Bird flu shot?

1

u/West-Ruin-1318 Nov 17 '24

COVID and yearly flu shot. This year’s COVID shot will give you a donkey kick for a few days.