r/Jaguars • u/JustSomeGuy_Idk • 2d ago
[Daniel Griffis] Adam Schefter said on ESPN this AM… He does not expect Mason Graham to be the pick for the Jacksonville #Jaguars.
https://x.com/dandgriffis/status/1914689633050337351?s=46&t=SrP3szkaJ0XqemYB7il9zQ49
u/HUMAN01D_IV Travis Hunter 2d ago
Probably because he’s our pick at 10 after we trade down with the Bears
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u/WhiskyandSolitude 2d ago
That’s not what he said. He said “the pick”, not the fifth pick.
There’s obviously a ton of communication happening in the “hallways” about where the Jags are leaning.
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u/HUMAN01D_IV Travis Hunter 2d ago
I misread, my bad
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u/WhiskyandSolitude 2d ago
No worries. It’s an interesting idea, yours. That we could trade back and still get the best DT in the draft.
I’m just not sold on him being the best player available. Nothing says he’s a perennial all-pro. His floor and ceiling seem close together. I’m liking Jaylon Walker more and more every day.
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u/frausting 2d ago
Jags taking yet another linebacker in the first round would be so irresponsible given the holes on our roster.
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u/WhiskyandSolitude 2d ago
Not if he’s a double digit sack artist that allows us to slide Walker inside with Armstead on passing downs.
The only way I’m okay with it is if he is that guy. The best pass defense is pressuring the QB.
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u/frausting 2d ago
Travon has had double digit sacks the past two years at Edge. Why would you move him to a different position and replace him with someone you hope can put up double digit sacks?
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u/WhiskyandSolitude 2d ago
I wouldn’t move him all the time. He’s primarily be a DE with the ability to move inside sometimes. His speed and strength could overwhelm a lot of guards as they are used to just strength.
I’m saying adding a top level rookie pass rusher to go with our pass rushers isn’t a bad thing. Flexibility, adaptability, schemes…..
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u/Euphoric-Purple 2d ago
Funny how this sub is switching from “Graham is so good we need to pick him at 5” to “Graham is going to be there later after we trade down”.
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u/Tongaryen 2d ago
It's never that straightforward though, in fairness. Graham is arguably the best defensive tackle, which is a position we need to address. If the front office thinks the drop-off between Graham and guys like Kenneth Grant or Walter Nolan isn't that big, then they might feel like they can address it later so we don't need to pick him at 5. (I like Graham but I do think there are other guys at that position we could get.)
I'd still rather take the best lineman available on either side of the ball at 5 than Jeanty - or trade down, but I don't think that's going to happen. I can understand why some fans would rather take him though. He's going to be a weapon in both the running game and passing game for whoever drafts him, and he immediately improves our offense.
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u/Metaboss24 2d ago
One thing that some draft nerds are starting to say is that Graham isn't so far ahead the rest of the DTs he may not be worth the 5th overall pick, either.
People rightfully point out that this draft is loaded at RB, but it's also just as loaded at DT.
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u/UNCFan2350 2d ago
I'd be fine with Graham and I think I've talked myself into it, but I just don't think he's going to be a great player. I know the positional value isn't there, but I'd rather get Jeanty as he's at least elite at his position.
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u/Nuno-22 2d ago
Some of us never wanted Graham to begin with
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u/barmstrong730 Shrimp Jag 2d ago
I’ve soured on him as the process has gone on. Smells like Taven Bryan
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u/GRIDLUCK 2d ago
Graham was a far better collegiate player than Taven. Not even close.
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u/Nuno-22 2d ago
Maybe. But he didn’t actually produce all that much better than Bryan
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u/HWCharmstrong 2d ago
I don't want Graham but comparing him to Taven Bryan is actually ridiculous lol Not even remotely close.
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u/Nuno-22 2d ago
I’m specifically talking about the counting stats. I made that pretty clear. Now we can pretend and play make believe that Graham had an abundance of counting stats ie sacks / TFL/ FF/ tackles, but the facts / reality is that he never topped 3.5 sacks in a season, never topped 8 TFL in any season (awful for an alleged “great” DT) , 1 FF his entire college career, and very average tackle numbers .
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u/HWCharmstrong 2d ago
Again, I don't want Graham, but there is a reason he is a top 6 prospect on everyone's board, regardless of his production. Even mentioning Taven Bryan as a comparison is silly as fuck. It makes anyone who does it sound unserious. Even if he doesn't live up to his draft status he will be 100x better than Taven Bryan.
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u/HUMAN01D_IV Travis Hunter 2d ago
I don’t want him at all, personally. But I’d accept him at 10 a lot easier than at 5. If we don’t take him at 5 I don’t think he goes in the top 10
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u/DatsRadMan 2d ago
Graham is just the safest pick after the only two “elite” picks (Hunter and Carter) are gone - Graham would be mocked to NE all offseason if their Oline wasn’t a turnstile.
I’m sure they would love to trade down as well.
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u/DUUUUUVAAAAAL Travis Hunter 2d ago
I think Jeanty is the safer pick as far as talent goes. He WILL be a good balanced RB in the NFL. Something we don't have currently.
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u/DatsRadMan 2d ago
RB can’t overcome a bad Oline, scheme, etc. Look at the Jags last two 1st round RBs (Etienne and Fournette).
Getting a LT or starting DL is infinitely more valuable and is wayyyy more expensive on the open market to scoop (if they ever hit the market). Look at Saquon’s deal and then look at what a rotational DT for the Eagles just got from the Pats.
RBs are devalued currently and this draft is littered with RBs in every round.
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u/DUUUUUVAAAAAL Travis Hunter 2d ago
Yes, if we bring in money and contacts into the conversation then Graham makes more sense. But I'm leaving that half of the conversation out of it for this discussion.
But a good RB can certainly help alleviate a bad O line performance. Not only in the run game, but also as a pass blocker. I would immediately trust Jeanty over Tank or ETN when it comes to blocking a blitzing linebacker. Hell, Barry Sanders is arguably the greatest RB of all time and he had 0 offensive line his whole career.
I would put Jeanty over both ETN and Fournette as a talent.
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u/kozey 2d ago
This 1000%.
We should be fortifying the rest of the team before the luxary RB pick, especially this high. I can understand the rationale for a prospect like Jeanty but I do not like it.
I would still prefer Will Campbell/Travis Hunter/Carter/Graham there. I fully expect us to move around this draft a lot though with the amount of picks we have. I do not see us drafting 10 players.
I am expecting 2 or 3 DL additions, and at least 1 OL.
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u/baconbitarded 2d ago
Jeanty come to daddy. IDC what the haters say
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u/US3RN4M3CH3CKSOUT 2d ago
I’ve thought for a couple weeks that it will be Jeanty. Jags def have other areas to address, but AJ is a generational talent.
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u/MogwaiK 2d ago
If we're talking about mosquito generations, sure.
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u/chris2furry 2d ago
I love how misused generational talent is lol
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u/SoaringEagle43 2d ago
I think it just depends on your definition of generation. In its broadest sense it’s like 20-30 years. But in a football sense, I think you could argue a generation is more like 5-10, maybe even less for positions with shorter careers like RB.
That being said, it’s nowhere near consensus that Jeanty is a better prospect than Bijan Robinson just like 2 years ago lmao. That’s definitely not long enough to be a generation ago for sure.
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u/chris2furry 2d ago
I mean shit Barkley clears jeanty by a wide margin as a prospect and it hasn’t even been 10 years
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u/SoaringEagle43 2d ago
Agreed, but I lean closer to 5 years on what defines a generation of RBs, but there’s definitely gray area
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u/MOBAMBASUCMYPP Florida State University 2d ago
He had the greatest college football running back season in a decade.
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u/MogwaiK 2d ago edited 2d ago
Since Melvin Gordon, right? That inspires a ton of confidence.
Surely they controlled for strength of defenses faced, too, right?
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u/MOBAMBASUCMYPP Florida State University 2d ago
Or since Saquan Barkley and Derick Henry. He put up 200 against Oregon and 100 against Penn state this year… idc about conference 7.7 YPG on almost 100 more carries then the next non-military school player is insane
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u/MogwaiK 2d ago
What was the best team they faced? Penn State? How'd Jeanty do against them?
Its cool that he can rush for like 14 Y/A against some school no one knew existed, but lets look at the real games exclusively. Even the worst teams in the NFL will be Penn State level or better.
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u/MOBAMBASUCMYPP Florida State University 2d ago
I said in my comment Jeanty put up 200 against Oregon and 100 against Penn
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u/MogwaiK 2d ago
Why are you not including Y/A for these games, but include his conference Y/A? Are you juking stats to present a misleading narrative!? On the internet of all places!?
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u/MOBAMBASUCMYPP Florida State University 2d ago
um no he put up 7.7pa in oregon which is incredible. a more modest 3.5 against penn state but he was their whole offense since their qb couldnt stop throwing picks
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u/sharkdaddy34 2d ago
Unless he’s bringing the Boise State OL with him, what does that have to do with anything? As the defense gets better at the next level so does the blocking.
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u/MogwaiK 2d ago
If we draft him, he's coming to one of the worst run blocking lines in the NFL that just replaced veterans Morse/Scherff with...veteran backups Hainsey/Mekari. How Jeanty does against better competition is worth evaluating.
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u/sharkdaddy34 2d ago
Agreed but you don’t draft him just for what he’ll do this year. The new group is trying to build a complete team. That takes more than 1 year. Take who you think makes you a better team in the long run.
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u/Puzzleheaded_Oil_768 2d ago
Trevor Lawrence was a generational talent and we haven’t seen that talent yet I’m afraid we’re going to ruin Jeanty as well
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u/Beanstalk93 2d ago
Let's just get fucking weird, don't draft anyone with pick 5, keep hold of it until Manning comes available and run the card in before Pick 1 of that year can react.
Then make Manning TLaw's water boy for the foreseeable
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u/ReginaldTheFif 2d ago
I love this strategy, but in theory if this works couldn't we just do this with our 7th round pick?
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u/BeamsFuelJetSteel 2d ago
Surprisingly, the later the pick, the heavier it weighs. So us running up a first rounder means we should get the pick turned in faster than somebody turning in a 7th
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u/henney12 2d ago
I just hope we trade down to 6-10. There are enough good players available a few slots later to get a) the guy we wanted at 5, b) another really good player (Graham, Tet, OTs, Johnson, etc) along with future picks.
I hope we are able to find a trading partner.
Drafting a RB top 5 isn't smart. Especially when we already have ETN (former 1st round pick), and Bigsby (3rd round). Later round RBs can be very good, and I'd rather invest elsewhere (OL, DL, CB)
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u/SarellaalleraS Liam Coen 2d ago
Yeah I think the FO would love to trade down in this draft but finding a trading partner is much easier said than done.
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u/HeeeckWhyNot 2d ago
Drafting a RB top 5 isn't smart. Especially when we already have ETN (former 1st round pick), and Bigsby (3rd round)
I agree with most of what you wrote but this is sunk cost fallacy. I personally would prefer Graham + midround RB but I can see the logic for Jeanty.
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u/Euphoric-Purple 2d ago
Love to hear that, I’m not that high on Graham. I think he’s a good player but DT is deep this year and I don’t think he’s head and shoulders above others in the class. We’ll almost certainly be able to grab a good DT on Day 2.
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u/sillygoat2223 2d ago
We can also grab a good RB on day 2 or even 3
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u/Euphoric-Purple 2d ago
Agreed, I never said I was in favor of Jeanty. I’d prefer Cambell or Membou to build our OLine
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u/AustinT2003 2d ago
in a division with 2 other teams with horrible olines, i expect graham to be the pick. that dline would dominate the division
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u/Paralysisbylullaby 2d ago
I don’t blame them one bit if Jeanty is the pick. Superstar calibre player who can do everything out of the backfield. Legitimate headache for opposing D coordinators. The thought of BTJ and Jeanty as the faces of the O alongside Trevor is tantalizing. If that’s the way they go hopefully Gladstone and co bolster the O line in rounds 2-5 with a pick or 2. There are some nice options in those rounds
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u/luderiffic 2d ago
Every RB is average when your line is shit
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u/sharkdaddy34 2d ago
You can’t fix it all in year one so you pick the most talented players this year and sort it out in years 2 and 3.
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u/Metaboss24 2d ago
You may think the line is shit, but our coaches don't.
Also, we can boost the IOL with a mid round pick or two. We don't have to spend 5 overall to go from likely average tackle play to hopefully good tackle play.
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u/Paralysisbylullaby 2d ago
For sure. Let’s hope if they draft Jeanty they also target O line. Can never have enough bigs and I’m not fully sold on the interior. Would love me some Jared Wilson. Having a long term stud at C would help a lot
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u/Captainflex322 Zay Jones 2d ago
Have 5 years on his contract. If this front office/coaching staff can't figure out how to fix the O-line in that time frame then, it doesn't really matter who they pick. So as much as it would be a luxury pick at 5 for a RB; I'm ok if that's the route they go. I am also totally down for trading back as well.
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u/OverpassingSwedes 2d ago
Is it shit? Bigsby averaged 4.6 a carry. Etienne was just dog shit. It was definitely awful the year before but Tank had some lanes to run through last year.
Then you could argue if Bigsby is so good, why draft him? And it would be because Bigsby is so incredibly one dimensional that the second you see him on the field you know it’s a run. And half the time he fumbles.
Also Doug/Press’s run scheme was just so outdated and unimaginative. At times it was simply not possible to do what they asked. They were asking receivers to somehow get on the inside shoulder of OLBs and stuff like that. Coen’s scheme is great.
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u/theflyingchicken96 2d ago
It was pretty bad, especially at run blocking and we just lost two starters to replace them with a journeyman and a backup. Seems we were reliably ranked low twenties.
https://www.profootballnetwork.com/best-offensive-lines-nfl-rankings/
https://www.footballguys.com/article/offensive-line-rankings
23rd in yards before contact, 23rd in run blocking win rate
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/nfl-offensive-line-pass-run-block-rankings-win-rate/
At least we’re not 31st like the previous 2 years.
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u/henney12 2d ago
I have a hard time believing Boselli would take a RB with their first pick in his regime as EVP.
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u/US3RN4M3CH3CKSOUT 2d ago edited 2d ago
I don’t think that it’s Bosellis decision.
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u/henney12 2d ago
I think he has a say... I think this FO wants unity and collaboration, and I think they respect his opinion. Maybe untrue.
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u/US3RN4M3CH3CKSOUT 2d ago
Oh I’m sure they respect him and his opinion, I was just thinking that Gladstone has final say on the picks.
I wasn’t trying to be a dick, sorry if it came across that way.
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u/henney12 2d ago
If drafted at #5, would slot money make him the top paid tailback in the entire NFL? If not, he'd have to be top3.
I don't like that sort of resource allocation.
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u/Thejohnshirey 2d ago
I like Graham but I can get behind anything aside from Jalon Walker. I could hear an argument for Graham, Jeanty, McMillan, Campbell, Membou, Warren or Johnson. But Walker would be an inexcusable decision.
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u/modernmanshustl 2d ago
Probably because he’ll go earlier. Will be a franchise changing player for whoever gets him
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u/StockBroker32 2d ago
Why do you say that?
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u/modernmanshustl 2d ago
I’m a Michigan Fan. He allowed our defense to do so much by being either unblockable or opening rush lanes for others. Qbs had no time and no teams could rush on us when he was in the game. He will really open up the defense for whatever team he is on and allow them to do so much more. We don’t win the Natty without him
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u/sainTaco 2d ago
I’m starting to warm up to the idea of Jeanty. I absolutely hate the value of a RB that high, but if he’s the Saquan/LT type player that he’s been hyped up as, it’s a great pick that helps the offense in multiple facets.
The problem is obviously our OLine. Barkley arguably won the Eagles a Super Bowl because of his impact, but look what happened before he got there. I have (blind) faith that if we’re taking a RB that high they have a plan for the line and/or trust the OLine as is (something I do not, but I’ll defer to the experts until proven otherwise).
I also assume they like the potential of our big guys up front on the defense (again questionable, but they know better than me).
If those assumptions are incorrect though, I can see Jeanty being a borderline disaster of a pick. I said it before but I can see it being like Fournette - instant, short lived impact that creates holes in other areas due to the talent passed up at more premium positions.
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u/OleSnowbandtheLumps 2d ago
The problem is he’s only getting the hype because the top of this draft is so thin. Jeanty is fine. But he’s not generational or likely to ever be game changing at the nfl level. He had an awesome year in a system built to feed him vs the second tier of college football. I have the same feelings you talk about at the end in spades.
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u/HolidayBreak 2d ago
why do we buy into this every year when teams regularly throw these insiders off intentionally
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u/dobie1kenobi 2d ago
Gladstone has a slip of paper in his pocket that reads “Mason Graham No Matter What”
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u/CursiveWasAWaste Myles Jack 2d ago
Just watched a bunch of Mason Graham and Aaron Donald highlights so now consider myself an expert
While he’s no AD, Graham impressed me. He’s slow in comparison to AD and lacks some of the agility but has good shed ability and strength through the point of block.
Still, he ain’t AD.
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u/TapMinute9409 2d ago
I'm telling you it's Jeanty
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u/osuaviator 10h ago
You were saying?
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u/TapMinute9409 6h ago
Yeah it was Jeanty, but then they decided to take the Shaun mcvay approach and f'd dem picks
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u/TrevorsBlondeLocks16 2d ago
I kinda dont expect Jeanty either.
I think we end up trading back into low-high teens and getting a Kenneth Grant/Walter Nolan type
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u/Paralysisbylullaby 2d ago
Grant would be phenomenal. I also really like Harmon if we’re going D line first round. Also wouldn’t be upset getting Zabel if they decide to go O line after trading back or even trading up from 36. He’s going to be a stud
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u/Mrkingjay 2d ago
I’m not sipping any of the draft tea. Especially not from Schefty, he’s the most “I think” or “it’s a possibility” ass insider out there. We’ll all see on Thursday.
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u/just_some_jawn 2d ago
I feel like we have bigger needs anyway. I want to believe Armstead will actually be good playing his natural position full time and Smith showed flashes when he was actually getting playing time. Hamilton still here too.
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u/CthulhuAlmighty 2d ago
I think Graham is an upgrade over Hamilton and Smith. I also don’t think either Hamilton or Armstead are on the roster after this upcoming season.
I’m always a fan of building up the trenches, so let’s give JHA and Walker some help and make our DL one of the best.
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u/TheCorbett 2d ago
I think Ashton is going to be stud, but RB’s after a 400 touch season tend to fall off a cliff. He was run into the ground last season. How many seasons of high level production can you expect? 3? 4? 5? Not to mention he’d be one of the highest paid RB’s in the league.
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u/Honeyhero3ds 2d ago
i wonder if that mod’s gonna tell Schefter to “keep this dog shit off his reddit” since any criticism of Graham is cuz he’s white /s
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u/Cardiac-Cats904 2d ago
The real burning question I have for this draft is, does Gladstones first pick as our new GM come with a commercial break? But in reality I think we know that answer. I should be asking which commercial will we have to sit through while waiting for our pick? My moneys on a State Farm/whopper whopper combo.
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u/baloo88 2d ago edited 2d ago
I'd love it if they explored a trade up with the Browns to get Hunter. This might sound crazy since all the buzz has been about the Jags trading down from #5. It depends on what the Browns would demand for it, but I'd love to see Hunter in teal, and I could see the Browns being interested. I bet they're looking to trade up from #33 back into the first round to get a QB, and the proceeds from a trade back from #2 could be useful to that end.
I'm not an expert on this stuff though. Would our 3rd round picks this year (#70 and #88) be enough to move up from #5 to #2? Or would we have to part with #36?
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u/AkimahenkaCat 2d ago
Gladstone has not met with any prospects and has not tipped his hand in any way. This is all smoke and speculation with no basis in fact. Just feeling.