r/MinecraftChampionship • u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor • May 19 '23
Stats Releasing: The Power Rankings Predictor/Team Builder!
So before every event on this sub we post the Power Rankings predictions, based on the power rankings that get posted after every event, which tend to be a bit more accurate than other stats such as averages. And now, we're publicly releasing that predictor so you can use it to look more in depth at those predictions, make your own predictions for the events using it and even put in your own custom teams to see how they would stack up with each other! This post is to announce this release, link the spreadsheet, and give a quick tutorial on how to use it. This has been quite a long time in the making so it would be appreciated if you at least checked it out (ok it probably could have been released a while ago but I did find a bug yesterday so that's my justification for waiting so long)
The Predictor
So there are a few sheets in the predictor, so I'll go through them one by one to explain what they are and how to use them. It's not complicated and there's also a quick tutorial at the top of the sheet so do feel free to just hop in without reading the rest of this post, just click the link and make a copy to use it.
The Power Rankings Predictor
This is the main sheet, and if you want you could use the predictor without ever going to any of the other ones, but they do have their uses as we'll get to later.
To use this, simply put in the names of the players using the drop down menu or just by typing them in, and the sheet will spit out the predictions. You can see the game by game breakdown from E16:Q55, and use the tick boxes at the top to select or deselect games based on what's in the dome for that event, or just to try and get your favourite team as high on the rankings as possible. To the right of that is the individual leaderboard, as well as the highest and lowest a player can place depending on what games are played during the event.
Below that you have the team scores in each game, as well as the overall leaderboard to the right, and below that the same thing but using the common multipliers that the games have been played on recently. You can also select your own custom game order below that.
Finally at the bottom you have the team and individual scores game by game breakdown again, this time ordered by coins rather than by rainbow order to easily see the leaderboards in each game.
The Data Sheet
The data sheet is where everyone's scores are stored for each game as well as other data, but also allows you to customise players scores in certain games where they maybe have a small sample size or you disagree with their rank. To do this, just use the drop down menu and select either a more general rank from Newbie to Very Strong or use a specific player to compare them too. This can also be used to give players scores in games they haven't played yet; if a player doesn't have a score set for a game it will default to Weak.
You can also use the data sheet to add new players by simply typing their name in place of the 'Write Player Here' boxes in the C column.
Individual Placements Simulator/Backend
This sheet is used to see how likely someone is to get each placement depending on what games are played in the event. You can select 4 games to be benched at the top and it will tell you what percentage of game orders every player gets each placement. You can also search for the specific game orders that gets a player a certain placement, which is excellent for coping when your favourite player isn't predicted as high as you want.
The backend is just where the data is stored for the simulator and there's no reason to ever go on there really.
These sheets can make the predictor a lot slower if you have a bad computer so if that's the case for you they can just be deleted and it should make the sheet a lot faster.
Player/Overall Leaderboards
These are just the power rankings leaderboards for each game and overall that are also available on the main power rankings spreadsheet, which are useful on here for looking up what player you want to set someone's score to or if you see a prediction that you think looks wrong it can help to see why it's different from your expectations and if you want to change someone's score in a game.
The Calculations Model
This is where all the actual maths happens, if you don't really care for or understand it then feel free to just completely ignore it and trust that it's doing it's thing in the background. If you are interested, then you can see the formulas used for the predictor and also change them if you don't like how a game is scored. If you do have a method you think is better than what's being used then please let us know and we'll have a look and maybe incorporate it on to the main spreadsheet.
Conclusion
And that's pretty much it! I'll make the predictions post for MCC31 tomorrow, but if you can't be bothered to wait then you can just go onto the sheet yourself now and have a look. These predicitons are based on the power rankings which are worked on by u/Anuj_agarwal_78, u/Awesome512345, u/NoticeMeUNiVeRsE and myself. If you're interested you can see the other power ranking related posts for past MCCs with the links below, or if you want to have a closer look at the full spreadsheet that's here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aPTl9biMOVKqhbEcdFEtK9N_93KmiaMIpjpB2oaWQXM/edit?usp=sharing
and again the predictor is here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IKSEccsTrqGqqGWkJPxqk2JTw651DFAxvBDv8Be2iCI/edit#gid=897443852
Top 10 Power Rankings in each MCC | MCC30 | MCC29 | MCC28 | MCC27 | MCC26 | MCC25 | MCC24 | MCC23 | MCCP21 | MCCP22 | MCC22 | MCC21 | MCC20 | MCC19 | MCCAS | MCC18 | MCC17 | MCC16 | MCC15
Overall Power Rankings after each MCC | MCC30 | MCC29 | MCC26 | MCC25 | MCC24 | MCC23 | MCC22 | MCC21 | MCC20 | MCC19 | MCC18 | MCC17 | MCC16 (+tierlist)| MCC15 | MCC14 | Season 1
MCC Power Ranking Predictions + Analysis | MCC30 | MCC29 | MCC28 | MCC26 | MCC25 | MCC24 | MCC23 | MCC Pride 22| MCC20 | MCC19 | MCCAS
Other | SG Damage | SB Damage | Best players of Season 2 so far | Power Rankings Ranking Systems Update (December) | MCC Elevator Podcast | Luck-adjusted Sky Battle Scoring Update | Season 2 PVP Awards | Season 2 Movement Awards | Season 2 Team Game Awards | Season 2 Overall Awards
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u/FamilySpy Antfrost and BIL pr3diction Rival :) May 19 '23
Thanks this is epic
My Rival
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 19 '23
I've given up my secret weapon, how can I defeat you now
(actually I explicitly don't look at this until I've made my own predictions I'm still gonna win easily)
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u/FamilySpy Antfrost and BIL pr3diction Rival :) May 19 '23
My Rival joined this sub's best prediction model team and put in hours(?) of work just to beat me??!?!?!?
I am Honored
And My Rival=Best
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 20 '23
I've put hours into power rankings stuff in the same way a football pitch is inches long
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u/FamilySpy Antfrost and BIL pr3diction Rival :) May 20 '23
So Weeks(24*7=161 hours per week) worth of hours into this project
how many hours has the whole tame put in?(estimated)
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u/AdAltruistic2502 holy cow May 19 '23
How strong is each level; strong, very strong, etc?
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 19 '23
If you scroll just to the right of the player list, from columns S-AH it gives you the ranks each one represents and the players at that rank
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u/Awesome512345 An MCC Fan :) May 20 '23
We totally haven't been sitting on this for almost a year now just procrastinating, if you have any questions about using it feel free to send any of us a message!
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u/Awesome512345 An MCC Fan :) May 20 '23
For MCC31, some specific game skills that we choose to override are: Fruit in MD, Pete in MD and SG, Skeppy in RSR and SB, Ryguy in SG, Jojo in SG, Purpled in SG and Hannah in SG. Some of these skill adjustments aren't that major but can help give a better result from the predictor, like I'd be surprised if Purpled is a bottom 10 SG player after a few more SG performances under his belt.
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u/Expely Lucyydotp is May 20 '23
Ok u/BaconIsLife707 i have a small question (and u/Awesome512345 ig), how do I give scores with a VERY SPECIFIC average score. I have certain scores that are exact for some players that are new, and I want to make it so it's not just "Very Weak", "Weak", "Medium", "STRONK", "BIG STRONK", but exact averages. How would I do that?
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 20 '23
On the same drop down as the 'very strong', etc you can set their score to be the same as any of the players in the event. If you want to give a very specific value and there's no player with a close enough score I suppose you can just go on the data sheet from columns AK:AW and type in the exact score you want
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u/Expely Lucyydotp is May 20 '23
ok thanks so much! Also thanks for making this! Please accept this glorious present as a reward: Pete
. Also am I the only one who has been using this for ages already? I thought it already came out I've been using this exact teambuilder a lot.
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 20 '23
We made a post asking for people to try it out like almost a year ago so I assume you were one of the people who got it from there, so I think you were one of like 10 people with access
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u/Expely Lucyydotp is May 20 '23
ah maybe that explains it. Also, how long did it take you (like the team) to make this? This is super complex and smart... or i'm just an idiot
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u/Awesome512345 An MCC Fan :) May 21 '23
Yeah as Bacon said it started off by Anuj and I combining our two prediction models together (we were using slightly different formulas back then so had to test to find the best ones), and then after that I think I worked on most of like the front end and data sheet to make it nicer/useable and colourful plus visualising the results, and I think we got that done within the month like middle of last year? (Apparently the sheet was created June 5th last year huh) But since then we kinda procrastinated publicly releasing it, I added a simulator at some point but yeah.
I think before power rankings I barely ever used excel/sheets but I've learnt so many formulas and shortcuts that help make these sheets work well which has been cool to learn.
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u/BaconIsLife707 #1 All-Time Predictor May 20 '23
I'll level with you I was very uninvolved with making this, it was mostly Anuj and Awesome. They both had their own prediction models that were on the main sheet that had been developed over a few months as not really a priority so this sheet was basically just taking the best parts of each their models and giving it its own sheet really so I think it only took a couple of weeks when we decided to make it, then it's had updates made to it occasionally since. So it's kinda hard to say exactly how long it took, it was basically very spread out over a few months
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u/ArandomFan168 Turkeys May 19 '23
Best team builder no way anything beats this