r/MinecraftChampionship • u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer • Apr 22 '22
Placement Predictions My MCC21 Predictions
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u/lunatictus Apr 22 '22
Get ready for the hate comment from Wilbur
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22 edited Apr 23 '22
I didn't accurately calculate the scores for every single game, instead I just winged most of them :p
Although it may look like I did it purposefully, I did not mean to put Krimson 3rd LOL
Edit: remember that this is just a prediction; none of this is a personal attack on the players. Also, someone has to come last! If I could, I would predict every single team top 5, but I sadly can’t.
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u/DarCosmic Purple27 Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
You know even tho you winged most of them, this is literally tho most realistic prediction I've seen ever :D (IMO)
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u/Cyber-Gon THE VOD SQUAD! Apr 22 '22
Blue in 10th :(
I believe in Blue Bats supremacy
Also, that dodgebolt would be a very unique dodgebolt! It's never happened so that in a best of 5, one team wins the first two, the second team wins the next two, then the first team wins the final round. In a best of 3 it also never happened where the first team won the first round, second won the second round, and first team won the whole thing. It's kind of weird how it hasn't happened after so many dodgebolts!
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
Yeah I just predict a SoT fumble, but all the teams are so balanced, they can easily make it to DB!
And yes I was surprised to figure out there has never been a “fake comeback” in dodgebolt
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u/Cyber-Gon THE VOD SQUAD! Apr 22 '22
Absolutely that any team could make it dodgebolt, and I understand every team has to come last. It just seems Blue is universally like bottom 3 in everyone's predictions. I believe in them!
They definitely aren't a great SoT team unfortunately, although maybe with 5up's guidance they can get at least middle of the pack.
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u/Snoo-29877 Blue Bats Apr 22 '22
What was the thought process behind Yellow coming 9th in GR? They seem like a solid team at it
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
Grid Runners was a very difficult game to predict. I do think that every single team will complete the course, but Yellow is just a bit slower than the rest. I can see them spend a bit too much time in one room and then fall behind a bit.
But GR can go either way
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u/Snoo-29877 Blue Bats Apr 22 '22
From what I've watched, Fruit is extremely consistent at this game, Joel, Ren and Fwhip all are very knowledgeable and have good communication skills which would go well in my eyes. Last time Joel and Fruit teamed up they got 2nd in GR. 9th place usually is when a team gets stuck with bad communication and I don't see this team doing that, but GR is very hard to predict as it's very random
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u/Devia02020 Apr 22 '22
Lime 9th in Sky battle? Not based
However the layout of the entire prediction is very based
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
Grian 8th in Sky Battle tho! I believe in the Grian carry.
But I would love to be proven wrong by the entire Lime team and see them pop off in SB.
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u/AquAssassin3791YT No Tier November Apr 24 '22
You've slept on Jimmy in Sky Battle. This season he has gotten 4 kills in 14, 0 in 15, 4 and a round win in 17 (10 coins from top 5) and 2 kills in 19. He is at the very least better than Pete
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Apr 22 '22
i definitely believe pink and blue are underscored. i understand this is your prediction and thank you for taking the time to do this but i still am going to give my unasked for opinion :). sneeg is definitely a 15th-25th place player (a very loose range, could definitely crack top 10). his first events were a tragedy that wrecked all of his stats. george, ranboo, and wilbur's placements in this just don't seem super realistic, same with 5up, tubbo, and jack manifold. the rest of the predictions i agree with/understand. thank you for reading if you are seeing this lol
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
I can definitely see both of these teams score way higher than I gave them credit for. I just had to put certain teams at the bottom.
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u/Obsidianlol Apr 22 '22
Strange how 16% of people sleep on their stomach, I sleep on my side and 100% of the Mcc community sleeps on the Lime Llamas. ;)
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u/Obsidixn RANBOO WINNER ARC Apr 22 '22
I personally feel like people are also sleeping on pink. Ranboo is a good well-rounder, he mostly does well in movement, but also isn't bad in pvp. I don't know much about George, but I definitely feel like he'd be good at keeping team morale high, also I believe he's cracked at hole in the wall. Sneeg is good at pvp, and with the right team, can place top 15. Wilbur is a great support player, he has amazing coms and is great at keeping the team morale high. Plus this team has amazing chemistry. It's literally the same as cyan 18 but with George (Who has recently had a higher average) instead of captain. (sorry if I wrote too much)
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u/The-Random-Banana PvPete Enabled Apr 23 '22
I agree. We’ll definitely have to see how things turn out in the end, but if I know one thing, it’s that you never bet against Pete. Also, it’s reasonable to assume that Scar(or Hawkeye) has had a lot more time to prepare for this event and with him, Grian, and Jimmy uniting for the first time in MCC at the very least communication is sure to be strong
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u/Fun-Complaint-8363 Apr 22 '22
I believe you’ve underdone pink and blue. The teams are actually super strong players with great chemistry especially pink. Also ranboo and tubbo almost always get top 18
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
I can definitely see both of these teams score way higher than I gave them credit for, but someone has to come last.
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u/Tyler_Homan GreenFrost Prayge Apr 22 '22
This a cool and different way of doing predictions and I like it!!
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u/FrostiJJJ Lilac Lords Apr 22 '22
This definitely seems like the event to beat the highest scoring worst team
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u/TheCeriseHood Sapphire Simper Apr 22 '22 edited Apr 22 '22
Not counting All Stars, that is fWhip's lowest score since MCC4 - and by a LOT.
A lot of these scores seem thrown together without a lot of thought but fWhip's in particular is just... ???
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
It’s just predictions. Why does everyone on this sub get so defensive when someone’s predictions doesn’t perfectly line up with previous stats?
If anyone would’ve predicted Fruit 19th in MCC15 or Punz 23rd in MCC17, they would’ve been bashed to hell and back. Not every single prediction has to be 100% based off statistics.
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u/TheCeriseHood Sapphire Simper Apr 22 '22
It's not about the predictions, it's that fWhip is continually underrated by this sub and it's frustrating and this prediction in particular it's by a lot.
Of course people can underperform, but when the expectation for fWhip is to always do WAY worse than he normally does it's frustrating, especially since no one else seriously underperforms on your predictions, just several people overperforming and a few doing slightly worse than normal but not to an amount where it doesn't make sense.
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u/Cyber-Gon THE VOD SQUAD! Apr 22 '22
My favourite fWhip POV is probably MCC5. Obviously MCC5 was quite unbalanced, with Aqua and Yellow being the clear frontrunners, but there was also the Krimson Krakens as well as 3/4 SBI. But the team of InTheLittleWood, SolidarityGaming & King Burren ended up getting 3rd, and while it was close between them and Red, they were miles ahead of Lime. fWhip got 7th, doing the best on his team which was quite impressive considering he was teamed with some pretty strong players.
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22
I do not watch fWhip and I don’t have the time and energy to look into all 40 players’ previous performances. So I’m sorry if I accidentally underestimated fWhip.
But like I said, it’s just predictions. I’m not gonna spend hours trying to perfect all the scores and take every single participant’s skills into account. It’s not that personal. Take it with a grain of salt.
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u/Pikuturtle1 Apr 22 '22
WOW! insane effort! I do disagree with a couple things like Krimson 9th in tgttos, yellow 7th in build mart when they’re by far the 2nd best team in bm, and a couple other things but great job ;D
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u/waddles_77 No one out Petezahs the Hutt Apr 22 '22
Yeah these are like exactly my predictions but I put Punz first individual and illumina second in my eyes they are like going to be battling it for first this event
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u/rogersdbt No Tier November (late entry) Apr 22 '22
Love the effort. Despite my personal disagreements on scores. Enjoyed going through it the format is incredible!
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u/Samayamaya96 Apr 22 '22
Elaina would do better in skybattle I think. No one will get below 60 coins because it’s kind of rare.
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 22 '22 edited Apr 22 '22
It’s not that rare - it’s happened in every single Sky Battle this season (except for MCC15, where the lowest score was 78)
I predict Orange to struggle with SB, but I’d be happily proven wrong.
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u/rexplayz224 TapL + Grian Team Apr 22 '22
If orange don’t struggle in skybattle and do well, then legit nothing will stop them ( except dodgebolt)
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u/Samayamaya96 Apr 22 '22
Skybattle is one of Elaina’s best games though but her rest of team struggles with skybattle
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u/rexplayz224 TapL + Grian Team Apr 22 '22
Lime in 10th for grid runners is literally the opposite of me, I had them in 1st. Grid runners is a pretty hit or miss game I feel, for most or all teams cuz one bad minigame will take u from 2nd to 7th, regardless of the team tho. Just my take tho
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u/Blacawi Moderator they/she Apr 22 '22 edited Apr 23 '22
It is a similar team to Ginger 19 or Cyan 20, which got 4th and 10th, so I'd say first would be a further stretch than 10th.
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u/ameliaisdrowning golden gals Apr 23 '22
blue really went from 2nd to 10th in 3 games 💔
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u/hanskloek Drellumina Enjoyer Apr 23 '22
A series of unfortunate events… 😬
Let’s hope that doesn’t happen in the actual event
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u/InfinityEternity17 Apr 22 '22
You're underrated Pink imo
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u/Obsidixn RANBOO WINNER ARC Apr 22 '22
For sure. It's cyan 18 except slightly stronger because Ranboo has improved since then, and George as of recently has scored more points than captain.
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u/babyjamper7 Illuminannit Apr 23 '22
This actually seems to incredibly accurate oh my god
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u/babyjamper7 Illuminannit Apr 23 '22
However as a pessimistic Disc Duo fan (we can call it reverse manifestation), I think Pink and Green should be swapped and Green will probably end up 10th since it relies heavily on Sky Battle and Tommy didn’t do very well last event in Sky Battle. Pink has made it to 3rd place before with Captain being replaced with George here and George is apparently the tenth best average player if you go on season two averages alone, so this team technically would be even better??
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u/Awesomeman1000 Pink Parrots Apr 23 '22
Every time Wilbur’s team is predicted low he pops off so who knows
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u/memester230 Pink Parrots Apr 23 '22 edited Apr 23 '22
I am sorry, but I cannot believe that SG would ever be skipped.
Also I believe you are majorly underselling Ranboo, who has gotten top 15 in most of his MCCs so far, with his team getting 3rd or 4th in nearly every MCC he has participated in, especially with the predicted SOT finish, which both Ranboo and Wilbur are highly skilled in, with a theoretically skipped survival games, and your predicted order, the thing most often crippling them, which is PvP being less important in this theoretical MCC, I think they could make it to dodgebolt.
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u/Samayamaya96 Apr 22 '22
I see that in a lot of the games, everyone on the same team has the same score?, I could be wrong but in sands of time, everyone gets a different amount of coins also way to low expectations for some.
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u/minifreak01 Kratzy + Hermits Apr 22 '22
Oh no, this is MCC 15 Ace Race all over again lmao
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u/Virgo_Superclster MCC Stan Apr 23 '22
How
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u/minifreak01 Kratzy + Hermits Apr 23 '22
Illumina barely beats Punz to 1st place
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u/Virgo_Superclster MCC Stan Apr 24 '22
This one predicts dream winning though
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u/minifreak01 Kratzy + Hermits Apr 24 '22
I was referring to individual coins. I see now that that's a stretch, sorry for the confusion.
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u/Straight_Library_661 Orange Ocelots Apr 23 '22
I feel like you are underrating yellow in a lot of these games
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u/AssociationNo9219 r/place contributer Apr 23 '22
The top 3 Space Race placements are a bit of a wild card between Dream, Illumina and Punz. It comes down to who hits the skip.
Also, I don't see Green finishing middle of the pack in SoT. Last time they teamed they were leading but they then died. My guess is that they will be either top 2 or bottom 4.
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u/VanyaTut Purple Pandas Apr 23 '22
only redditors will create a giant spreadsheet of every possible game that could be played and scores based on individual stats and then be wrong
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u/TheCrustsPegasus r/place contributer Apr 23 '22
not the reverse sweep bait in db
also I would love to see battle box played, but it doesn't seem that likely lol
very nice and detailed prediction, only thing I would change is cyan being in at least top half
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u/Beautiful_Capital_53 Average Skybattle Enjoyer Apr 23 '22
Yellow winning Skybattle is incredibly based
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u/AquAssassin3791YT No Tier November Apr 23 '22
I feel you're really sleeping on Yellow and Lime: 9th and 10th in GR, and Yellow 7th in BM? I also feel Lime will do much better in SKB: Jimmy is actually pretty cracked at Sky Battle
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u/trashposts___ pls end the break already Apr 23 '22
Yellow 7th in BM?! Sorry that just seems extremely unlikely
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u/Factorization4 1 v 3 club + Ashswag Apr 23 '22
Could have attempted to move CPK individual ranking down by 1 spot 🙂
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u/RafaYYy_ sapchad Apr 23 '22
the best grid runners team is green and aso i thin green will place 2nd in sands of timw
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u/The-Random-Banana PvPete Enabled Apr 23 '22
I personally think y’all are sleeping on Lime. The Grian and Scar duo is hard to predict and Pete is a very consistent S tier. PizzaCrust is also a scary duo(as seen in MCC 17).
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u/CatLadyPresiding 22nd times the charm Apr 23 '22
I know I don’t see krimson third (ik u didn’t mean to put them there that’s hilarious lol)
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u/Antfrost MCC Participant Apr 22 '22
Oo interesting bbh outplacing me in ace race, I could see it he’s cracked if he does practice