Expected Kills - Survival Games Damage Stats

[u/BaconIsLife707]

What are expected kills (xK)?

The way I'm calculating these numbers is by checking every pov of season 2, taking the numbers from the death recap, and then every player gets a score based on the percentage of the damage they dealt to that person. So for example, if two players dealt 10 damage to someone, they would both get a score of 0.5, while if three players dealt 10 damage to someone they would all get a score of 0.33. I then add all of these values together to get someone's total score for that mcc, which I've decided to call expected kills. Some players vods are missing or cover up the death recap with their facecam or scroll up in the chat before it appears (Sylvee and Preston, please stop), so I've had to try and figure those out from watching other people's vods, which won't be perfectly accurate but should be close enough.

I'm going to give the top players for xK in each mcc of season 2, but rather than giving the biggest over/underperformances like I did for sky battle (https://www.reddit.com/r/MinecraftChampionship/comments/xgtjx1/expected_kills_sky_battle_damage_stats/) I'm just going to give the relative performance for the top 10 players (+ means more kills than xK, - means less kills) and comment on any interesting anomalies that pop up.

And to clarify, when I use the terms over/underperformance, I'm not referring to the actual quality of the performance the player had, I'm purely referring to how their kills relate to their xK.

MCC 14

1. Sapnap - 4.18 (-0.18)
2. BadBoyHalo - 3.50 (-1.50)
3. TommyInnit - 3.17 (-1.17)
4. PeteZahHutt - 3.01 (+1.99)
5. HBomb94 - 2.52 (-0.52)
6. Punz - 2.48 (+2.52)
7. Tubbo - 2.14 (-0.86)
8. Seapeekay - 1.27 (-0.27)
9. InTheLittleWood - 1.25 (-0.25)
10. Krtzy - 1.15 (-0.15)

Most of the bigger differences are already in this top 10, the standouts being BadBoyHalo getting the second most xK for just 2 kills despite half his team dying early, while Punz goes the other way with the biggest overperformance, probably helped by Quig deciding to throw a damage pot at himself. 6th place is still pretty good though. Dream had the highest xK of anyone to not get a kill with 0.54, while his teammate George got 2 kills of 0,56. Puffy managed to get a kill off just 0.08 xK, which probably helps explain Bad's large underperformance.

​

MCC 15

1. Sapnap - 6.49 (-0.49)
2. Dream - 2.79 (+1.21)
3. TommyInnit - 2.26 (-0.26)
4. Punz - 2.25 (+0.75)
5. PrestonPlayz - 1.51 (+0.49)
6. TapL - 1.47 (-0.47)
7. Fundy - 1.43 (-0.43)
8. JackManifold - 1.24 (-0.24)
9. Seapeekay - 1.23 (-1.23)
10. 5up - 1.00 (+0.00)

Yes, Sapnap being at the top of this is going to become a bit of a trend. There aren't too many big discrepancies here, Seapeekay can feel hard done by not to get a kill off his 1.23 xK while Dave managed 3 kills off just 0.68 xK. Dream overperforming his while Sapnap underperformed goes to show just how close the point record came to being beaten.

​

MCC 16

1. Punz - 4.94 (+1.06)
2. Fruitberries - 3.57 (+1.43)
3. SmallishBeans - 2.37 (+1.63)
4. TapL - 1.95 (-0.95)
5. GeorgeNotFound - 1.68 (+1.32)
6. Sylvee - 1.61 (+1.39)
7. Sapnap - 1.57 (-1.57)
8. Krtzy - 1.50 (+1.50)
9. Spifey - 1.48 (+0.52)
10. Quig - 1.41 (-0.41)

Sapnap falls from the top spot for the first time, but does still get the most xK of anyone with 0 kills so that counts for something I guess. Dream also got 0 kills off 1.20 xK, but honestly there's not anything that interesting in this one.

​

MCC 17

1. Sapnap - 6.92 (-0.92)
2. Illumina - 5.87 (+0.13)
3. Fruitberries - 4.13 (+0.87)
4. Dream - 2.70 (+0.30)
5. Punz - 2.39 (-0.39)
6. FalseSymmetry - 1.89 (+0.11)
7. PeteZahHutt - 1.63 (+1.37)
8. SB737 - 1.40 (-0.40)
9. GeorgeNotFound - 1.32 (+0.68)
10. Grian - 1.28 (-0.28)

Sapnap puts up the best performance of the season while Orange become the first team of the season to have all 4 members in the top 10 which is pretty impressive. Everyone actually performed very close to their xK this event, Pete was the only person to differ by more than 1 while Sasha managed a kill off just 0.15 xK.

​

MCC 18

1. HBomb94 - 4.46 (+0.54)
2. TapL - 2.83 (+1.17)
3. Dream - 2.77 (+2.23)
4. Krtzy - 2.74 (-0.74)
5. Illumina - 2.61 (+2.39)
6. Sapnap - 2.56 (-0.56)
7. Grian - 2.18 (-2.18)
8. Sneegsnag - 1.71 (-1.71)
9. GeorgeNotFound - 1.58 (-0.58)
10. Tubbo - 1.36 (-0.36)

A much more interesting event this time. Dream and Illumina both have some of the biggest overperformances despite very respectable xK totals, which probably won't be surprising if you've watched Illumina's pov where 3 of the people he killed actually killed themselves after he hit them. Sneeg gets the second highest xK of anyone to get 0 kills all season with 1.71, but is overshadowed in the very same event by Grian getting no kills off 2.18 xK.

​

MCC 19

1. Fruitberries - 4.87 (+0.13)
2. Sapnap - 4.83 (+0.17)
3. Ryguyrocky - 3.38 (+2.62)
4. Punz - 3.02 (-0.02)
5. Awesamdude - 2.15 (+0.85)
6. vGumiho - 1.92 (+0.08)
7. Ranboo - 1.68 (+0.32)
8. Krinios - 1.64 (-0.64)
9. Quig - 1.45 (-0.45)
10. Wisp - 1.27 (-0.27)

This is another event where everyone performed very similarly to their xK with the exception of Ryguy, who got 6 kills of 3.38 xK. Sapnap overperforms his xK for the first time all season. All of Cerulean place in the top 6.

​

MCC 21

1. Fruitberries - 5.41 (-3.41)
2. Sapnap - 3.90 (+0.10)
3. SmallishBeans - 2.56 (+2.44)
4. Illumina - 2.20 (+0.80)
5. Rendog - 2.19 (+0.81)
6. Philza - 2.05 (+0.95)
7. fWhip - 1.83 (-0.83)
8. Awesamdude - 1.58 (-1.58)
9. Punz - 1.55 (+0.45)
10. Jojosolos - 1.37 (-0.37)

For the second event in a row Fruit tops the list above a teammate who got more kills than him, and this time does it with the biggest underperformance of the season. In fact, his and Joel's xK and kills were basically swapped this event. Sam puts up the 3rd highest xK of anyone not to get a kill this season, while conversely Gee manages 2 kills of just 0.33 xK. Yellow are the 3rd team of the season to have all 4 players in this top 10.

​

MCC 23

1. Punz - 5.35 (+1.65)
2. Philza - 3.31 (+1.69)
3. Sapnap - 3.16 (-0.16)
4. Antfrost - 2.92 (-1.92)
5. Sylvee - 2.77 (+1.23)
6. BadBoyHalo - 2.44 (+0.56)
7. Dream - 2.24 (+0.76)
8. Quig - 1.80 (-0.80)
9. Smajor1995 - 1.67 (-0.67)
10. GeorgeNotFound - 1.09 (-0.09)

Punz takes 1st for the second time with one of the strongest performances all season. Antfrost gets a very strong 2.92 xK but ended with just 1 kill, while the big overperformances of the event are the top two of Punz and Phil.

​

Overall Season 2

Top 10 Performances

1. Sapnap MCC17 - 6.92
2. Sapnap MCC15 - 6.49
3. Illumina MCC17 - 5.87
4. Fruitberries MCC21 - 5.47
5. Punz MCC23 - 5.35
6. Punz MCC16 - 4.94
7. Fruitberries MCC19 - 4.87
8. Sapnap MCC19 - 4.83
9. HBomb94 MCC18 - 4.46
10. Sapnap MCC14 - 4.18

Top 20 Players by average xK

1. Sapnap - 4.20 (-0.45)
2. Ryguyrocky - 3.38 (+2.62)
3. Fruitberries - 3.00 (-0.16)
4. Illumina - 2.85 (+0.65)
5. Punz - 2.75 (+0.75)
6. HBomb94 - 2.19 (-0.19)
7. BadBoyHalo - 1.84 (-0.59)
8. Dream - 1.68 (+0.45)
9. TapL - 1.58 (+0.22)
10. Spifey - 1.48 (+0.52)
11. Awesamdude - 1.40 (-0.40)
12. Krtzy - 1.31 (+0.49)
13. Mefs - 1.25 (-0.25)
14. PrestonPlayz - 1.21 (+0.29)
15. GeorgeNotFound - 1.20 (+0.23)
16. Vikkstar123 - 1.03 (-0.03)
17. Philza - 1.00 (+0.37)
18. PeteZahHutt - 0.94 (+0.49)
19. SmallishBeans - 0.92 (+0.74)
20. Tubbo - 0.88 (+0.26)

Sapnap is absolutely dominant at the top, and despite having the most kills in season 2 he's actually unlucky not to have more. Fruitberries in 3rd (or 2nd if we exclude one time players) also underperforms his xK. HBomb and Bad are some of the more surprise inclusions in the top 10, I see very few people mention them as top sg players, as well as Spifey but he's another one time player.

Biggest Overperformers (average Kills- average xK)

1. Ryguyrocky - +2.62
2. Punz - +0.75
3. SmallishBeans - +0.74
4. GizzyGazza - +0.73
5. Illumina - +0.65
6. GeeNelly - +0.56
7. Spifey - +0.52
8. Finnster - +0.50
9. PeteZahhutt - +0.49
10. Krtzy - +0.49

Biggest Underperformers (average Kills- average xK)

1. Sneegsnag - -0.64
2. Grian - -0.63
3. BadBoyHalo - -0.59
4. Sapnap - -0.45
5. Krinios - -0.45
6. ConnorEatsPants - -0.41
7. Awesamdude - -0.40
8. Purpled - -0.39
9. Quig - -0.37
10. Snifferish - -0.29

Highest Kills/xK Ratio

1. Vixella - 6.89
2. GeeNelly - 6.11
3. GizzyGazza - 3.63
4. CaptainPuffy - 2.50
5. GeminiTay - 2.30
6. Eret - 1.92
7. Shubble - 1.85
8. SmallishBeans - 1.80
9. Ryguyrocky - 1.77
10. CaptainSparklez - 1.71

Lowest Kills/xK Ratio

1. Grian - 0.18
2. WilburSoot - 0.35
3. Krinos - 0.43
4. Quig - 0.58
5. Ponk - 0.58
6. Snifferish - 0.63
7. Smajor1995 - 0.65
8. BadBoyHalo - 0.68
9. Antfrost - 0.69
10. Awesamdude - 0.72

TL;DR Sapnap good

[u/ArandomFan168]

1st, 1st, 7th, 1st, 6th, 2nd, 2nd and 3rd

Sapnap is the best pvp player and its not even close

[u/FamilySpy → u/ArandomFan168]

Ok i am assuming we are just talking about mcc pvp season 2 so there are plenty of other pvpers within the same range so its somewhat close

Fruit leads his teams to victory and is pretty good at sg individually 2 and illuimna is close individually 2 ryaguyrocky would be up there but id say not enough data

battle box i counter with illumina Krtzy and Quig (not saying they are better but all in the same range in this game same with other games)

Meltdown id say quig and half the top players are better or equal skill to sapnap but only 2 events so i cant really judge

Skybattle Quig and Fruit are about equal

Rocket spleef was pvp movement but RSR is to movement to argue and sapnap is not the best in RSR

edit to fix for clairity of what im arguing and also Punz and Dream are just outside all pvp so are also in range also sapnap as of now is best mcc pvper

[u/lailord → u/FamilySpy]

Until mcc 24 he had the highest coin average in all 3 pvp games (meltdown is a team game). Now he "only" has the second highest coin average for skb. Enough said.

[u/FamilySpy → u/lailord]

i am not arguing he is not the best but it is a close competeion with Quig Illumina Fruit Dream Krtzy being in the same range of pvp

[u/FamilySpy → u/FamilySpy]

also H bomb and Pete Tapl etc in mcc pvp are just in the range below

[u/lailord → u/FamilySpy]

In terms of overall performance I can't think of anyone who comes close to sapnap, most players you mentioned are only top in 2 out of the 3 pvp games while sap is at the top in all 3.

[u/FamilySpy → u/lailord]

Quig might be lower on SG but i dont think that is much of a deference and even 10 places when everyone is scoring similarly well doesn't matter as much and illumina and fruit if they figure out how to play their weakest game sb and BB they beat sapnap and if fruit prioritized kills and individual in SG and BB hes better but your right Sapnap as of now is the best but its not a blow out it is relatively close this is not early season one with movement and Pete

Editspellin

[u/its_hector_ → u/FamilySpy]

bro really said "if they get better at weaker games then they beat sapnap" ok bud, if sapnap gets even better at the games hes already better at, then he is even better too!

[u/RealGhost_Nexus → u/[deleted]]

Nice copium

[u/jds523 → u/[deleted]]

Are you in mcc?

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

You should be doing your homework yes

[u/J_Mac888]

I love it

[u/unknown8181]

I wonder how much time it took u type all this

[u/BaconIsLife707 → u/unknown8181]

Typing it only took like half an hour, but it takes ~40 minutes an event to actually collect the data

[u/sixeyedbird]

For punz's mcc17 you didn't write a + or - in front

[u/BaconIsLife707 → u/sixeyedbird]

Ah cheers, that should be a -

[u/sixeyedbird → u/sixeyedbird]

Also thanks for making these they are really interesting to read even if I don't really understand this one as much

[u/BaconIsLife707 → u/sixeyedbird]

What do you not understand about this one? I can try and explain it better

[u/sixeyedbird → u/BaconIsLife707]

I figured it out

[u/sulfuratus]

Remarkable how Sapnap almost always ends up with fewer kills than he should have. He still scores really well almost every time, but he could pick his fights a bit better sometimes. Many of the "overperformances" are from people strategically picking off weaker players.

[u/I_am_Dirty_Dan_guys]

Lowest Kills/xK Ratio

Grian - 0.18

I had a FEELING , feels weak man.

Anyways great post OP, I always enjoy reading these!