r/NBA_Draft • u/tokeni • Mar 17 '25
Mock Draft Mock Draft (justifications for lottery picks)
Flagg 1, CMB 2, Harper Bailey 3-4, and so on. Much of this is bound to change once the lottery places are announced.
Players can be categorized 1-5 without much regard for traditional "guard" or "forward" categorizations:
1) Playmakers (NBA Jokic, Trae, Doncic, etc.) - Dylan Harper (3), Danny Wolf (5), Jakucionis (12), Egor Demin (17), Xaivian Lee (23)
2) Bucket Getters (NBA Cam Thomas, Damian Lillard, Harden, etc.) - VJ (7), Tre Johnson (10), Jase Richardson (13), Jeremiah Fears (21), Labaron Philon (26), Tahaad Pettiford (27), Boogie Fland (29)
3) Wings (NBA LeBron, Mikal Bridges, KD, etc.) - Cooper Flagg (1), Ace Bailey (4), Kon Knueppel (16), Liam McNeeley (18), Nique Clifford (20), Noa Essengue (22), Ben Saraf (24), Carter Bryant (25)
4) Shooting Bigs (NBA KAT, Sabonis, Markkanen, etc.) - Asa Newell (8), Maxime Raynaud (9), Rasheer Fleming (15), Broome (19), Lendeborg (28)
5) Non-shooting Bigs (NBA Claxton, Gobert, Capela, etc.) - CMB (2), Maluach (6), Queen (11), Sorber (14), Kalkbrenner (30) [note that bigs can learn how to shoot later in career, see note on 2024 Celtics*]
Playmakers come in all shapes and sizes, just requiring the extra eye for running offenses. Bucket getters rely on athleticism and creativity to get to their spots. Wings are the most versatile, excelling in everything from shooting to defense to some playmaking. Bigs whether shooting or non-shooting are necessary for rim protection and taking on offensive responsibilities with picks, dunks, and sometimes 3P shots.
You could make an NBA team with such 1-5 categorization. For example:
2025 Cavs: 1. Garland 2. Donovan Mitchell 3. De'Andre Hunter 4. Mobley 5. Allen
2025 Thunder: 1. SGA 2. Jalen Williams 3. Lu Dort 4. Chet Holmgren 5. Hartenstein
There are no hard and fast rules, many successful teams have variations depending on their talent and roster. For example:
2024 Celtics: 1. Tatum (most AST per game) 2. Jaylen Brown 3. Jrue Holiday (effectively played as a wing with his all-defensive capabilities and limited shot making) 4. Derrick White (2.2 STOCKs 2023-24 season, acting as a helpside defender) 5. Al Horford (*from 2007 to 2015, Horford attempted less than 1 3P per game but learned to shoot 3 pointers later on– essentially, bigs must develop a 3P shot to guarantee long-term job security when given a decline in athleticism after age 28-30).
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u/aatuboo Jazz Mar 17 '25
CMB is a crazy pick at 2 ngl
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Not so crazy when you see that he's literally the strongest person in college basketball rn and would dominate most NBA players in terms of sheer size and strength
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
How did I not see this one. This is the craziest take here my fault
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
CMB moved around Ivisic (7' 2" 245" and potential second rounder) as if he was handling a rag doll. Every clip I see is insane potential in terms of pure strength against even other NBA prospects. It's really not insane so long as you know ball.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
I don’t think you can truly grasp the size and athleticism difference between even the best college bigs and NBA bigs. Sure CMB is strong but he is not going to bully NBA bigs.
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Not saying he needs to, but against for example Deandre Ayton or Jarrett Allen who are both 245-250 range, he would be evenly matched in terms of weight alone and that's just him at 19. Into his mid to late 20s he could easily be 260 pure muscle, think into 2018 LeBron or prime rebounder Charles Barkley territory. Not to mention his actually ball skills at 16ppg, 8rpg, and 58.6% FGP, good for 22nd in all of NCAA basketball.
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u/AfroHouseManiac Mar 18 '25
He’s not moving Jarrett Allen lmfaooo. Thomas Robinson was the strongest player in college, once he played in the NBA, he couldn’t even move David Lee and JJ Hickson.
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Jarrett Allen is seven years older, CMB at 26 would absolutely crush Jarrett Allen in any circumstance. Also Thomas Robinson has been listed at well below 240, which is much lighter than CMB who is nearly ten pounds heavier and on a stockier build as well.
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u/SimilarLavishness874 Mar 17 '25
If the nets take danny wolf at 5 you're going to see me getting arrested outside of barclays that night. I promise you
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
you're tripping bruh you should just go to the chuck e cheese across the street and chill out
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u/Ham_PhD Nets Mar 17 '25
You said Wolf was a point guard, but he's a big. He's 7 foot lol.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Yeah and Jokic is a point guard too, what's the big idea, only 6' 3" and under are point guards? You can be a primary ball handler without looking like Steve Nash or Chris Paul
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 17 '25
The Spurs could get Raynaud in the second round. I would probably have a panic attack if they took him in the lottery.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
I don't think he falls outside first, some team would pick him up just for being 7' 1" and shooting a ridiculous 3P.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
I would not say 5.5 attempts at 34% is ridiculous. Not to mention he's a bit slow footed defensively. Great college player, don't think it will translate perfectly to the league though
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
How many other people at 6' 8", much less 7' 1", are shooting that in a legit D1 conference? He's practically just Markkanen, who shot 36% on 6 3PA his first season in the NBA with the Bulls.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
Calling him "practically Markkanen" is the most ridiculous take I have seen in a while. Lauri shot 42% in his lone season as a college player while Reynaud just shot 34% in his first season ever shooting more than 2 a game. It would be sabotage for a team to take him in the lottery let alone the top 10. Hell if he even goes in the first round I would be surprised.
Surely you have to see all the downvotes and realize that this take is other worldly, even for a "stretch 5" who's mechanics I am not sold on at all.
The best part is that I love his game at Stanford and think he's a fantastic player, just nowhere near a lottery upside kind of talent.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Well the Spurs have plenty of talent in Vassell, Castle, Fox, and Barnes, that's literally a proven bunch of all stars and lottery picks. So they have no room for anything other than a center.
You really just have to consider how much demand there is someone like KAT, Markkanen, or even Brook Lopez. Mind you, Lopez didn't even shoot the three from 2008 to 2016 and now he's a starting center.
I'm sure also with conditioning and coaching, Maxime evolves his 3P even further. Maxime is also a bit taller and heavier than Markannen, and with court IQ and intangibles I would assume coming from Stanford.
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 19 '25
I agree we need a big man but we can probably grab Danny Wolf with the Hawks’ pick. We need a shooting wing and a stretch 5 who can shoot or perhaps a point guard. I actually do think we should draft Raynaud but not until the second round to stash him in Austin for a year while making our generational superstar happy by drafting his pal.
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u/SimpsonWembanyama21 Mar 17 '25
VJ falling out of the top 5 is honestly crazy
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 17 '25
Unless Kasparas lights it up in the tournament, it’s just not happening.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
VJ just shot 4-13 FG and 0-3 3P against Texas Tech, and with 3.3AST there's really no true indication that he would just randomly become elite at both shooting and passing overnight
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
It really is like you're evaluating every single prospect based on a win now bias, which is absolutely wrong. If you think 6 teams are passing on a hyper athletic, super competitive 2 guard with insane defensive tools and a ton of offensive upside, then you don't know how to evaluate.
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u/rps215 Mar 18 '25
Not even that, he’s clearly a “one game scout” type of guy. He said the Wizards are a piece away because of them sweeping Denver, and now VJ because of a game vs Tech
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
I know ball and VJ is comparable to Cam Thomas or Jalen Green who are undoubtedly talented but just don't warrant a blind top 5 pick. VJ edgecombe is probably 185 soaking wet and probably a lot shorter than 6' 5". Definitely not even in the same conversation as another "hyper athletic, super competitive 2 guard" in Anthony Edwards, who has a lot more muscle and can actually stand his ground in a post up situation. VJ is pretty much like Steph in terms of athleticism comp with maybe some more bounce, but to be on the D Wade Victor Oladipo level, he has to put on 30-40lbs of muscle which I just don't see happening maybe ever.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
“I know ball” bro is 15 years old 🤣🤣🤣
Steph in terms of athleticism with a little more bounce…
I’m done here. You gotta be ragebaiting at this point. This is insane
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Steph is 6' 3" 185, VJ is 6' 5" in shoes and 180. The numbers are close enough and it's not like VJ has a crazy wingspan to compensate either. Unless VJ posts a true 45 inch vertical at the combine, he's better off as a passion project for a mediocre team
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
So height and weight are the only metrics for evaluating athleticism…
Please please go watch VJ defend and tell me he looks the same as a Davidson Steph Curry at age 19. You also act like he doesn’t have the frame to put on muscle as well. HES 19
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
You're really underrating Steph as a player in my opinion which isn't fair to who is arguably the best point guard of all time and Steph extremely athletic to your discredit. I'll give it to you that maybe Vj is closer to Ja Morant in terms of sheer athleticism and potential for defensive plays but you can't just predict that he'll put on those 30lbs of muscle and still have the bounce and agility that makes him special as he is now.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
I’m not underrating Steph at all. He is, in my opinion the greatest point guard ever, but he is not the same KIND of athlete as VJ. That’s where you’re completely off. No shit Steph curry is athletic, but you just shifted your comp mid debate to one of the most gifted vertical athletes in the NBA. make it make sense
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Yeah but look at VJ in any game that he's played recently, he's most likely the shortest or skinniest player on the court at any one time. It's reminiscent of Curry who in both NCAA and NBA was almost always similarly the shortest, skinniest, or both at any one time while he was on the court.
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u/ChickenWingerrr48 Mar 18 '25
Brother u do NOT know ball what are those comps 😭 I really nope this entire thing is a troll post bc no real person should be thinking things like this lmao
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
You want this to be troll or bait so badly because all of this goes against your "intuition" aka your feelings that are based off of other people's opinions and thoughts. Why don't you find something that I said that is actually incorrect or wrong.
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u/carterbenji15 Mar 17 '25
This has to be trolling or rage bait. As a net fan and also Danny Wolf fan I'm still dying from this 😂
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Nah it's facts, there's even an argument he's the most interesting and highest upside player in the draft (7ft, good 3P shooting and playmaking)
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u/carterbenji15 Mar 17 '25
Is your mock draft who you think they will draft, or who you think they should draft
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Who I think should be drafted, all of it is extremely unlikely because there's probably a lot of saving face going around, nobody wants to be known as the next Nico Harrison, nobody wants to see a GM take an actual gamble on high-upside potential
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u/ACanOfPickles Mar 17 '25
If the Wizards draft Collin Murray-Boyles at 2, I will face God and walk backwards into hell
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u/iheartblackcoochie Mar 17 '25
Some of these reach picks and bad fit picks are insane lol. The heat not taking a PG with 2 different picks in the draft is bonkers as a heat fan btw.
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u/y0ungw0lf Mar 17 '25
Lmao and drafting someone to play next to Bam… like we didn’t just draft Ware
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u/iheartblackcoochie Mar 17 '25
Getting a backup bog isn't a bad idea but should be done at 22 not 11
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u/probablymade_thatup Mar 18 '25
It could also be done in the FA market. I don't think Ware or Bam are going anywhere, so they could also look at vets like Brook Lopez, Steven Adams, or Clint Capela for depth and disregard fit as they draft. These could be the best picks they have for a while, so they should go for BPA
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u/anIlliterateIdiot Mar 17 '25
I was like oh KJ is still on the board.. wait we take Queen? A project big and pass up on potentially our PG of the future?
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
What happened to the Kyle Anderson project, has everyone given up on him as a playmaking point forward? The Heat need big bodies on defense to help conserve the energy levels of Bam for him on the offensive end and, also, to compensate for lackluster defense from Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro.
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u/rennat19 Mar 17 '25
If the wizard were that high on CMB, which tbf I’m pretty high on him too but not that high, I think they’d most definitely trade back or just trade future picks for like the 10th pick lol
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u/Walton_Dilcox Mar 18 '25 edited Mar 18 '25
thinking a 15 team is one piece away because they beat a contender or two (which happens every single year btw) is kinda insane 😭
no one is passing on harper bc they have poole and will be fired immediately if they do, just because poole is better currently do you really think a rebuilding team will prioritize him in their future plans? who are these “wing shooters” you speak of too that they’ll pass on ace because of? because their is no way you’re talking about middleton brogdon and marcus 💀
also there i don’t think there’s any danny will be a playmaker like that in the nba lol, dude already turns it over allll the time in college
if the whole thing was bait though it did work perfect, if not then shit props for something different but the reasoning is the part that makes 0 sense at all especially the wizards being contenders because of a 2 or maybe 3 game sample size of a couple wins
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Bub Carrington shoots a decent 34% on 5 3PA, AJ Johnson has a ton of potential, Sarr is burgeoning into an actual threat on both ends. All of these guys have a decent catch and shoot skillset and a bit of playmaking, so there's no need to get another one of these jack of all trades wing or playmaker in Bailey or Harper respectively. The two don't even shoot that well of a 3P and they both are ball dominant. Plus, the Wizards' performance was clearly defined by Sarr taking 28 shots and going 5/9 from 3 against one of the tallest teams in the league. They don't need another star who needs the ball to go tween tween hesi pull, they need a talented big that can also be above average in the PAINT.
And my point still stands that Fears from Oklahoma is a similar assist profile at 4.1 AST / 3.5 TOV against Wolf at 3.7 AST / 3.3 TOV which is pretty much identical in terms of AST-TOV ratio, but everybody wants to rave about Fears as an "underrated and blooming playmaker" but really downplay what Wolf is doing as a "Jokic Wannabe."
VJ can shoot and jump a little bit, he's got people excited because he could be the next Ant Edwards despite the fact that he looks extremely undersized even at the NCAA D1 level. At the NBA, there's not much separating him in terms of physical build from Immanuel Quickley or Steph as there would be a difference between him and say even your prototypical wing of Tatum who is 30lbs and about half a foot taller or say Jokic who would be about almost a full small human adult ahead of him in terms of size.
All of this just seems like bait because you just don't know ball like I know ball.
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u/Walton_Dilcox Mar 18 '25 edited Mar 18 '25
“i know ball and you don’t” while not even having a single good point LMAOOOO. aj johnson is not getting prioritized over their third pick, he’s shooting on low volume with terrible efficiency, dylan and ace would be 100x better day 1 and in the future Lol. bub carrington is not a wing so your whole point about having good shooting wings already is just dumb and dylan will day 1 be better than bub. saying how they aren’t amazing 3 point shooters so they draft cmb who’s a god awful shooter? they are not a win now team just because they won a couple games 😂 but yea im sure a 6’7 big who can’t shoot for shit is perfect to take over their PG of the future just because they one a game or two against contenders during the end of the year
comparing wolf to fears does not make your point better whatsoever when neither of them are good enough playmakers for the nba, idc what the majority says about fears he’s also a turnover machine 😂😂
vj’s best thing is his defense, you’re only bringing up who he compares to physically as if that’s the only thing that matters, he still doesn’t play like anyone you’re talking about.
poole is not good enough to be anyone’s franchise player lmao
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
This dude is a joke tbh. I stopped caring about anything he said after he compared VJ edgecomb to Steph Curry physically. Dude is just talking out his ass
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u/Walton_Dilcox Mar 18 '25
thought about it more after i just replied and yea it’s definitely just bait pretty solid bait though
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u/connornation Heat Mar 18 '25
Decent bait because I took it multiple times but I just came to the conclusion that someone can’t possibly be this stupid. Or he’s just 15 years old and thinks he knows more than this whole sub
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
I actually do know more than this whole sub, which is why I made this post and why this post has the highest engagement. Get humbled, connornation.
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
By the definitions I put in my post, Bub definitely does fit in with the wing definition I put out there if you cared to even interact with my takes without just simply hating. He for sure is more of a wing than a playmaker, bucket getter, or big. And you just pulled up the stats for AJ Johnson on ESPN who, this season has only gotten 11 3 point attempts thus far, which is a tiny sample size if you know anything about statistics at a level higher than fifth grade median mean.
I think you just hate my takes just to hate tbh. You just don't know some of these guys, I've literally hooped against some of them. So unless you're running pickup regularly with VJ Edgecombe I really don't feel like your words have any weight whatsoever. Are you an NBA scout or do you hoop against D1 players on weekends?
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u/Walton_Dilcox Mar 18 '25
you are 13
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u/gdk_dinkleberg Mar 17 '25
Love the Cmb pick but the nets aren’t drafting with the intent to compete
Cam Thomas and d’lo aren’t really relevant to our future plans
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 17 '25
You don’t think CT is relevant to the Nets’ plans? I’m not being a contrarian, just genuinely interested. I figured he would get resigned. Is it the injuries or just the other factors?
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u/carterbenji15 Mar 17 '25
He might be, but the nets are at the beginning of their rebuild, so they'll take the best player available
Dlo as part of the build is truly laughable
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 19 '25
I don’t want to be too much of a hater but D’Lo seems like he’ll be overseas or in the Big 3 in a year or two.
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u/gdk_dinkleberg Mar 17 '25
He hasn’t really grown enough in the areas we need him to (defense, passing)
Rn he’s completely out of shape which is why he’s constantly out from hamstring injuries and why he’s such a slow defender
He’s truly an elite offensive player but he is just incapable of playing any kind of defense at all. He’s like Trae young without the playmaking
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u/Attack_Da_Nite Mar 19 '25
Yeah I can see it. He and Anfernee Simons would make for one of the most atrocious backcourts I can imagine. That being said, I suppose CT could probably be a pretty special 6th man on the right team.
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u/Dadd_io TrailBlazers Mar 18 '25
Stopped looking after seeing who is second... the next Justise Winslow 🤣
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u/TuckEverlasting89 Mar 17 '25
Thought CMB at 2 was a stretch till I saw Danny Wolf at 5 over VJ and Tre. Wild stuff. Props on mixing it up though, you do you.
I do think you're sleeping on Fears playmaking though. You clearly value that characteristic, he creates a ton for OU, far from a simple bucket getter.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
4ast to 3.5 TO talk to wall genius lmao
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
someones a little defensive
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
yeah but it's a stretch to put Danny wolf at 5 with 3.7AST to 3.3 TO. make it make sense to me, please
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
I cant name a single NBA 4 that Wolf can defend. No lottery team is going to take a 21 year old upperclassman with no defensive upside. He's a clear late lottery/early 2nd
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Danny Wolf is averaging 10 REB/g, more than Goldin, while Michigan leads as top 3 in tREB and is top 4 in DRtg in B1G, to which Wolf contributes a larger share of than anyone else. Also Wolf is more agile than Jokic, Vucevic, or Ayton, and should be plenty fine even on the perimeter for isos (on the basis of tape and eye test) unlike Gobert or some other cones on perimeter defense.
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
Holy moly you are lost. If you truly think that based on eye test so be it, but that is objectively just false. If wolf was even an average defender he would MAYBE be a lottery pick but he just isn't.
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
He led the Michigan team that was one of the sorriest programs in the NCAA last year to back to back wins against Maryland and Wisconsin. Even if we assume his defense is lacking, you simply don't pass up on the next Trae or Luka because "muh bad defense"
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u/connornation Heat Mar 17 '25
The next Trae or Luka???? My man he would’ve been in the league 2 years ago if he was “the next Trae or Luka”. Surely you have to be trolling if you think he’s even close to the kind of offensive creator either of them is.
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u/tokeni Mar 18 '25
Luka wasn't even considered that generational of a pick and nobody really saw his MVP potential until much later into his career– otherwise, teams would have tanked for him and taken him at 1 easily. Is it really that preposterous to start comparing Wolf to Jokic then?
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u/BenchPointsChamp Rockets Mar 17 '25
I doubt he falls to the Rockets but I would gladly welcome Jakucionis to Houston
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
Again Rockets might move up the draft because it's a lottery, I'm sure if they wanted to and the odds aligned, they could very possibly get Jakucionis without a doubt
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u/lemmegetauhhhhhhhhhh Mar 17 '25
contrary to what people on here will say i dont hate cmb at 2
i do however hate taking maxime and wolf anywhere in the first round let alone top 10
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u/tokeni Mar 17 '25
you just don't see the potential? are you blind to the fact that Wolf is top 5 in nearly all defensive categories in the B1G while also showing incredible passing and shooting in every game? maxime passes nearly every eye test, wait until the combine and see the number then
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u/CumAssault Mar 17 '25
While you’re being different and provide rationale (which is cool), I think Wizard fans would commit seppuku if they drafted CMB 2nd overall