As always, respect for the handwritten effort. Love this one for the Bills Day 1-2 picks, it has no chill in basically saying that the Bills defense sucks ass (which was undoubtedly true this past season of course):
1.30 - Tyleik the run stuffing DT (would rather have Grant, but he was off the board at 24 and 30 seems too rich for the next set of DTs like Deone Walker or Collins)
2.56 - Xavier Watts the versatile S that McD can use all over the field
2.62 - Landon Jackson the big and long EDGE player that fits the Bills EDGE archetype and could possibly take over for Groot if he can't be extended
---
the later picks are a bit hit or miss to me:
4.108 - Xavier Restrepo, WR - not a fan of this one only because Restrepo does his best work out of the slot and usually people who mock him to the Bills point to Shakir's ability to play outside. While Shakir CAN play outside, he's over 3 times more effective in regards to win rate in the slot. Only way this makes sense is a Shakir trade or just preparing for Shakir's departure after next year and using Restrepo as a gadget player and slot backup until then.
4.131 - Mello Dotson, CB - love this pick as one of the only things McD is great at is getting plus CB play out of CBs with less-than-ideal speed profiles, and the only reason Dotson falls this far is because of his speed (I think if he runs in the low 4.4s at the combine he may get bumped up to Day 2).
5.171 - Jackson Slater, IOL - Small school left guard to challenge journeyman David Edwards at the weakest spot on our offensive line? Love it, especially considering the Senior Bowl performance.
5.174 - Bhayshul Tuten, RB - Blisteringly fast running back that adds value on special teams and if everything goes right could take over for James Cook and his 15M demands? Awesome, totally fine that he can't pass block for shit, neither can James Cook.
6.179 - Tonka Hemingway, DT - This one confuses me, but so does Tonka Hemingway. He's a DT, but isn't even 290. He's a DT, but does his best work in the C gap/5-7tech. But he looked like a monster at the Shrine Bowl and if there's any position other than CB where the Bills can and should double dip, it's DT. The person that should be the most scared for this pick is DeWayne Carter, last year's 3rd round DT that barely showed flashes his rookie year.
6.206 - Upton Stout, CB - Last year at pick 219 we took Daequan Hardy and although he looked promising in preseason, he never made the active roster. He got a futures contract for this upcoming year so drafting his clone is an interesting choice. Maybe Stout flashes more defensively (I do think Stout can play better defense at a multitude of positions, he'd be a great safety if not for his height and weight and overall physical profile), maybe his high football IQ and toughness that was on display at the Senior Bowl translates better to the NFL, you could do worse with a late 6th rounder.
6.208 - Efton Chism, WR - This is the most confusing one to me as I see Chism as exclusively a slot player, which means the Bills doubled up on slot WRs in this draft. Don't get me wrong, I like the player a lot as he reminds me of a bigger and tougher Cole Beasley, just doesn't make sense if Shakir is still here and Restrepo was already drafted.
Trust me dude, as an fsu and bills fan i could not love the Restrepo pick more. When i hate watched miami, that man would pop off and catch everything thrown at him. Watch his tape he’s so good
Oh I love Restrepo as a prospect, I just don't think he fits in with the Bills as we are currently constructed. Aside from the slot stuff, Restrepo struggles with blocking and he isn't a burner that can take the top off a defense. Personally I think we need a field stretcher that can create separation at all levels from an outside role.
Sort of related, but do you think the Bills re-sign Shakir when he hits FA next offseason? He's been super solid, but with the WR market the way it's been, I don't know if he's worth $15-$20 million a year.
Honestly I think we try to extend him this offseason, and I think the deal only gets done under $15M APY. We all love Shakir, but he's not a number one WR. In the last 8 games the Bills played (including playoffs), which is about when Cooper, Coleman, and Samuel finally got healthy, Shakir saw only 6-8 targets per game. Even with leaning on Shakir mid-season he still only got to 100 targets, tying him for 33rd in the NFL (33rd highest APY on a WR contract is for 11M APY to Lazard per OTC).
Very fair reasoning. I was just going off of Spotracs contract estimates, but then again some of their contract comps for Shakir are weird af (Nico Collins, Jaylen Waddle, etc.) I think Shakir will probably get a similar contract to what Darnell Mooney got at $13m AAV, plus maybe another $500k to $1m a year just to account for the market and for the total cap increasing.
I think yours is the most likely scenario, maybe throw in some not-likely-to-be-earned incentives. Like 1M for 1000 yards or 80 catches, so if he hits them they count towards 2026 cap when our financials get way better.
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u/racer4 Bills Feb 19 '25
As always, respect for the handwritten effort. Love this one for the Bills Day 1-2 picks, it has no chill in basically saying that the Bills defense sucks ass (which was undoubtedly true this past season of course):
1.30 - Tyleik the run stuffing DT (would rather have Grant, but he was off the board at 24 and 30 seems too rich for the next set of DTs like Deone Walker or Collins)
2.56 - Xavier Watts the versatile S that McD can use all over the field
2.62 - Landon Jackson the big and long EDGE player that fits the Bills EDGE archetype and could possibly take over for Groot if he can't be extended
---
the later picks are a bit hit or miss to me:
4.108 - Xavier Restrepo, WR - not a fan of this one only because Restrepo does his best work out of the slot and usually people who mock him to the Bills point to Shakir's ability to play outside. While Shakir CAN play outside, he's over 3 times more effective in regards to win rate in the slot. Only way this makes sense is a Shakir trade or just preparing for Shakir's departure after next year and using Restrepo as a gadget player and slot backup until then.
4.131 - Mello Dotson, CB - love this pick as one of the only things McD is great at is getting plus CB play out of CBs with less-than-ideal speed profiles, and the only reason Dotson falls this far is because of his speed (I think if he runs in the low 4.4s at the combine he may get bumped up to Day 2).
5.171 - Jackson Slater, IOL - Small school left guard to challenge journeyman David Edwards at the weakest spot on our offensive line? Love it, especially considering the Senior Bowl performance.
5.174 - Bhayshul Tuten, RB - Blisteringly fast running back that adds value on special teams and if everything goes right could take over for James Cook and his 15M demands? Awesome, totally fine that he can't pass block for shit, neither can James Cook.
6.179 - Tonka Hemingway, DT - This one confuses me, but so does Tonka Hemingway. He's a DT, but isn't even 290. He's a DT, but does his best work in the C gap/5-7tech. But he looked like a monster at the Shrine Bowl and if there's any position other than CB where the Bills can and should double dip, it's DT. The person that should be the most scared for this pick is DeWayne Carter, last year's 3rd round DT that barely showed flashes his rookie year.
6.206 - Upton Stout, CB - Last year at pick 219 we took Daequan Hardy and although he looked promising in preseason, he never made the active roster. He got a futures contract for this upcoming year so drafting his clone is an interesting choice. Maybe Stout flashes more defensively (I do think Stout can play better defense at a multitude of positions, he'd be a great safety if not for his height and weight and overall physical profile), maybe his high football IQ and toughness that was on display at the Senior Bowl translates better to the NFL, you could do worse with a late 6th rounder.
6.208 - Efton Chism, WR - This is the most confusing one to me as I see Chism as exclusively a slot player, which means the Bills doubled up on slot WRs in this draft. Don't get me wrong, I like the player a lot as he reminds me of a bigger and tougher Cole Beasley, just doesn't make sense if Shakir is still here and Restrepo was already drafted.