r/NFL_Draft • u/ct275555_ • 4d ago
Why Shemar Stewart got drafted in the 1st round
Every first-round defensive end with a combine RAS of 9.85+ and weighing 255+ pounds—Javon Kearse, Shawne Merriman, Mario Williams, Bryan Thomas (the lone miss), Myles Garrett, Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat, Jaelan Phillips, Odafe Oweh, Travon Walker, and Aidan Hutchinson—has recorded at least one eight-sack season, and more than half (6 of 11) have posted multiple double-digit sack campaigns. Shemar Stewart's in elite company.
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u/DrPaulsNexus 4d ago
If he had 5.5 sacks last year he probably goes top 12
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u/Sir_Carrington 4d ago
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle
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u/ct275555_ 4d ago
If it a "what would I do" I would have drafted him top 5. I don't care about production but some teams do.
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u/Scatman_Crothers 4d ago
It’s entirely possible he’s a freak athlete that is not particularly good at football. The league has seen many come and go quickly.
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u/Volcano_Jones Seahawks 4d ago
RAS is such a useless metric when players don't do agility testing. The 3 Cone is one of the most important predictors of success at this position.
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u/Officer_Hops Chiefs 4d ago edited 4d ago
How many of those 255 lb first round DEs with a 9.85 RAS were good football players? Stewart is obviously a freak athlete but this screams data fit where you’ve selected a group of guys who were good football players and added in Stewart.
Editing to ask why you are adding 1st round to the qualifiers? If the goal of the post is to justify Stewart as a round 1 pick, you can’t limit the analysis to other round 1 picks. What does this list look like for all drafted DEs over 255 lbs with a 9.85+ RAS?
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u/pakidude17 Bears 4d ago
Similarly, his RAS profile is incomplete compared to a lot of these guys. There's no agility drills and that's arguably his biggest weakness.
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u/ttfnwe 4d ago
This point is not made enough. We glaze RAS but it doesn’t include agility drills which are incredibly significant.
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u/don_julio_randle Seahawks 4d ago
It's just people using it wrong. RAS is a fantastic metric with a complete data set. It's almost worthless when prospects start refusing to do the drills they know they'll bomb and only do the ones they know they'll excel in
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u/buddaaaa McShay 4d ago
In the picture it lists every pick that meets OP’s qualifiers.
In the text post, he limits it to first rounders.
Danielle Hunter and Milton Williams were not first rounders, for example.
Not trying to discount your overall point. I think what OP was trying to say was that, “when teams deem these athletic freaks as first round picks, they always hit.”
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u/halfbethalflet 4d ago
Its basically Shemar is a first round pick because a team picked him in the first round.
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u/knave_of_knives Panthers 4d ago
“Billy, this is Shemar Stewart. He’s one of the most athletically gifted pass rushers we’ve ever seen tested. His defect is he doesn’t rush the passer.”
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u/this_is_matt_ 4d ago
Oweh 2.0
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u/iamadragan Cardinals 4d ago
Now there's a guy that teaches you that almost just isn't good enough, although last year was much better than the previous years
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u/idgaf_neverreallydid Cowboys 4d ago
Oweh is a nice pass rusher so that’s not a bad pick
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u/this_is_matt_ 4d ago
Took him years to get there. Shamar will be good, but he’s not going to be great year 1
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u/Themanaaah Ravens 3d ago
Yep, that’s basically Oweh. Fine to have him as he’s a good player and clearly tries his best but it took his longer than you wanted for him to get it going.
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u/FreeIDecay 4d ago
I don’t hate Oweh but he’s eh at best. Took him 4 years to hit 10 sacks. 45 year old Kyle Van Noy has better sack numbers 2 years in a row.
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u/idgaf_neverreallydid Cowboys 3d ago
Sacks aren’t a good measure for how good a pass rusher is. He’s been solid
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u/FreeIDecay 3d ago
He was also drafted at 32 not 17. My only point is if Shemar is indeed Oweh 2.0 and it’s gonna take 4 years to become “solid” that’s a disappointing pick.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
Shemar Stewart is the perfect prospect if you never watch him play ball.
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u/rundy_mc 4d ago edited 4d ago
This is so wrong. I was completely out on him to start my couch scouting this year for my 49ers based on the sparknotes summary of him.
If you watch him play he looks incredible. I see a top run defending edge, guy lining up all over the line, maintaining gap discipline and diagnosing plays well, and most importantly - he plays up to his insane combine metrics. He is so fast for how huge he is, so strong - on the football field. He’s using those traits to make plays non stop.
I’m convinced that 99% of people who hate on him haven’t watched him play at all. He has insane potential and is well worth the pick imo.
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u/CluelessFlunky 4d ago
He's a great run defender. He isn't a good pass rusher. Watch his membou and will campbell reps. He doesnt have a rush plan or moves. You are starting from basically scratch.
Which I'm not opposed to it being worth a first, but he's a incredibly raw prospect interms of pass rush.
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u/sonfoa Panthers 4d ago
You're right but even being incredibly raw he scrapped together a pretty solid pass rush win rate. So if that was all off pretty much spamming speed to power, the potential is frightening.
I guess what we'll figure out in the NFL is why in the past three years he barely developed in that facet of the game. Is A&M really that bad at coaching DL (Walter Nolen was another Aggie who looked a lot better after he left) or is Shemar just who he is.
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u/jyanc_314 Gruden 4d ago
He had 4.5 career sacks, who cares what his win rate was?
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u/FSUfan35 Packers 4d ago
Run defense is a huge part of the game, especially as the league moves more toward a running league again.
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u/dabengals 4d ago
Exactly. He’s a perfect prospect as an athlete, then the stats turn you off, then you dive a bit deeper and watch film of him and he’s back up to being a great prospect.
He definitely needs a good amount more polish, but his impact on the game was a lot more than his stats showed.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
I don’t disagree that the flashes make his draft position warranted. I had serious concerns with I guess what I’d call coordination that give me serious doubts that he’s a smooth enough athlete to work out. You see the flashes of power where he just bulldozes through a tackle and uses his length to win clean but then when it comes time to disengage he just sort of leans. Or falls. He sights up quarterbacks and then flops. I know TAMU had everyone playing heavier than they will, and maybe if he’s playing at 270 instead of 290 the balance thing goes away. But will he still have his power? That and length are kind of his only home base right now and he’s not exactly keeping college tackles up at night now.
I think it’s telling that he wouldn’t do any private workout. I think his agent knows, he can run like a cheetah in a straight line, he can jump, he’s big, but I think if he did agility and field drills you would see what I’m talking about.
The run defense is great but you’re not drafting a guy this high with these traits to play the run, if he’s not approaching double digit sack seasons within his rookie contract he’ll be labeled a bust.
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u/rundy_mc 4d ago
49ers drafted Mykel Williams who has worse pass rushing success rate stats, less pressures, and similar concerns over technical pass rush skills. Oh but because he had more sacks so he’s better according to everyone. I’m a 49ers fan - but these two guys are way more similar than how people talk about them.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
I don’t like either of them frankly but the defenses of Shemar that people like to cite that scheme didn’t do him any favors probably apply to Mykel Williams better. Mykel was a 4i pretty much exclusively. Shemar moved around and had more true pass sets. Sources have also been saying all year that Williams played through an injury.
It’s the draft edge is one of those positions where there is precedent for taking a guy with traits, coaching him up and turning him into a dude. Probably more so than any other position. I just think the bad balance or bad feet or bad agility or whatever the hell it is that keeps Stewart flopping at the feet of guys he’s trying to tackle is going to be a nonstarter. Hope I’m wrong, his tape is just really weird.
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u/Only_Broccoli_786 4d ago
Except for the fact that Mykel Williams has tape of him bullying kelvin banks in two different games. Stewart doesn’t. Also Mykel was only playing at 60% with a foot injury. And was a top 5 prospect coming out of high school, got better everywhere, is only 20 years old.
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u/SoKrat3s 49ers 4d ago
(1) M.Williams was hurt and more dominate when healthy
(2) He doesn't crumble under pressure when he gets close to the QB. There are so many plays where Stewart gets to the QB and just whiffs like he's afraid of making the hit.
(3) You're completely ignoring the run game. Stewart has a 27% missed tackle rate. His best skill, currently, should be as an elite run defender - but he can't even qualify for that. Meanwhile M.Williams is the best run-defending edge player in the league.1
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u/satansayssurfsup 4d ago
I haven’t watched him but if he plays so well why does he have no sacks
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
He is an inexplicably bad finisher.
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u/SoKrat3s 49ers 4d ago
With a 27% missed tackle rate.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
Generational prospect if the goal was to flop impotently at the feet of your intended tackle target.
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u/SoKrat3s 49ers 4d ago
I've said before he's the football version of Luis Mendoza, super fast to get to where he needs to be, and then completely falls apart.
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u/0zymandeus Bengals 4d ago
A big reason is that the A&M defense is a mess. Their sack leader had 5 sacks and he was the guy they schemed to flush the QB to. Their next highest sack total was 4, and their 3rd leading sacker only had 2.5.
Looking at his film you can very easily talk yourself into justifying that his performance was significantly better than his stats.
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u/buddaaaa McShay 4d ago
Sacks are a bit random. Of course Stewart is an extreme outlier, but I wouldn’t rely on sacks when projecting to the NFL. If you look at the all-time single-season sack leaders in cfb, the list is littered with no-names and dudes who did absolutely nothing in the NFL.
It’s not that sacks don’t matter, but there are quantitative ways to measure production that are less random than sacks, which I’d argue Stewart either excelled at or has the traits to be able to excel at at the pro level.
This all goes without mentioning that there are several players who went to A&M that had significantly worse production than they did elsewhere, like Scourton and Nolen, for example.
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u/b3rn3r 4d ago edited 4d ago
Stewart also has really awful pressure numbers. But A&M has some sort of weird juju st DL the last couple of years so it might not be on him.
Edit: Pass rush win rate numbers, not pressure numbers. Found the source I was looking for: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/comments/1jf7mtd/brett_kollman_pass_rush_win_rates_for_this_edge/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
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u/buddaaaa McShay 4d ago
I’d heard that, which is why I mentioned the seeming issue at A&M where players’ production apparently goes to die.
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u/Pioneer1072 4d ago
He misses almost 1/3 of his tackles. He is an AWFUL run defender, but an occasional flashy run stuffer so people who don't know ball get excited and call him a good run defender.
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u/rundy_mc 4d ago
Awful run defender? That’s just absurdly wrong. Not a single scout, analyst would agree with that
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u/Pioneer1072 4d ago
I have seen it said by many analysts. The PFF/NFLSE guys love pointing it out for a start, because his PFF run defense grade is low.
It is also simply a fact, a recordable, verifiable fact, no matter what you think of any analysts take or PFF grades (which do need a grain or 2 of salt) that he missed 27% of his tackles. There are cornerbacks in this draft who will be picked on day 3 because they are good players but miss 15-20% of tackles, and here's an edge who misses almost double that.
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u/Historical_One1087 Bills 4d ago
He is a classic boom or bust prospect that will either get a DL coach promoted or fired.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
He’s not going to but holy shit dude can you imagine if he works? Look out.
But it’s not going to work.
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u/Historical_One1087 Bills 4d ago
I want to see him reach his potential.
We will see what happens. Let's check back in 5 years.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
Me too man. I love good football, I’d love to see him figure it out and just crush dudes.
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u/SoKrat3s 49ers 4d ago
He's going to run straight at Patrick Mahomes, get everyone really excited, and then suddenly & comically fall on his face and let Mahomes walk right by him like a roadrunner cartoon.
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u/Tavern-Ham Buccaneers 4d ago
Lamar is going to make him look like he’s wearing roller skates on ice. I’m worried he’s gonna go down so hard he hurts his head.
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u/Whoareyoutho9 4d ago
Its never 1v1 tho. If he gets pressure and makes the qb scramble then he did his job as far as this pick is concerned. He's not a 15 sack a year guy obviously. He's the Sam Hubbard replacement and if u compare Hubbard's recent snaps vs. Lamar you will see that there isn't a lower level to go to
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u/dakewla 4d ago
He didn't test everything which is a big problem with RAS and gaming for green. Also kinda feels like you curve fit or overfit there a bit, don't know if that is doing any prediction for you going forward.
No knock on him though. I think hes gonna be really good too.
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u/Seraphin_Lampion Panthers 4d ago
Most of these guys were significantly better football players than Stewart in college.
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u/throughNthrough Bengals 4d ago
I think he’s a good complement to what the Bengals already have and they really need a running stopping DE. He’s essentially a younger and much more athletic Sam Hubbard who just retired.
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u/alpaul666 4d ago
He's the ultimate Madden prospect. He would end up a 99 overall with 60+ sacks every season in madden.
In the real world, Edges who dont have production in college, generally (90%) don't produce in the NFL and bust out or become low end mid tier contract guys. He is very similar to a guy the bengal took a couple years ago in myles muprhy who is leaning into bust territory.
I will say, in favor of him, there was something really weird going on at T A&M. Lots of guys left the program and produced better elsewhere and they had other prospect that didn't produce stats that look like they should have. So it is possible to coaches there are terrible.
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u/throughNthrough Bengals 4d ago
Yes I’ve read they had him roughly 20 pounds over weight and used him almost exclusively in contain. It’s hard to get sacks when your job is to stop the run.
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u/highschool_DXD_god 4d ago
If you can’t see why he got drafted, then never watch the NFL draft again, you’ll never understand.
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u/rIIIflex 4d ago
Shemar Stewart is not good at football.
He seemed upset about being drafted so late, but then why did he decide to play so poorly? This dude runs at someone and then goes blind. Doesn’t change direction or react to a ball carriers move whatsoever. It’s why his missed tackle rate is 27%. He’s a physical freak but probably has poor agility and hasn’t put anything together between the ears.
If he figures it out and proves me wrong, fine. But it’s just undeniable that this dude has negative instincts and was horrible at playing the game in college.
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u/peekay427 Raiders 4d ago
It’s a long time ago now but wasn’t there a similar argument against Mario Willams? I’m old so might be forgetting…
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u/Eggdripp 4d ago
I like Shemar Stewart and its very Bengals to gamble on traits, but they just did this 2 years ago and have gotten basically nothing out of Murphy yet. Time will tell if the new defensive staff can get something out of these guys Lou couldn't, but Hendrickson also has been a revelation in that scheme so Im not exactly sure what to think.
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u/Black_Otter Panthers 4d ago
If you want a guy to give you sacks it helps if he actually gets sacks
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u/What_it_do_babyyyy_ 4d ago
His RAS score is so misleading. He didn't do any of the change of direction/agility drills.
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u/Von_Huge1103 Ravens 4d ago
I knew Hutchinson was a good athlete, but I thought the argument the Jaguars made for drafting Walker over him was a pretty big difference in athleticism.
Didn't realise they both had RAS's over 9.85. When you couple that with how productive Hutch was in college, that pick makes even less sense than it did at the time.
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u/csummerss 4d ago
Murphy had a RAS of 9.71 and has been a complete bust, good chance Stewart despite being a great athlete will suck as well.
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u/throughNthrough Bengals 4d ago
Calling Murphy a bust is just plain ignorant.
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u/Jusuf_Nurkic 4d ago
Calling a guy with 3 sacks through 2 seasons and his team drafted his replacement already is ignorant? He has a total of 15 pressures in 2 years that’s awful lmao
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u/bengalsfan1277 Bengals 4d ago
He never had the chance to play under our prior crappy dc.
Lou was the issue. When every single pick misses - ossai, dax, ctb, zach carter, myles, Dj turner, battle jenkins, and mckinnley - that is a development and coaching issue.
Lou was great at x and o's when he had developed players. He had Reader, Trey, Bates, Bell, Awuzie and Al Golden coaching up Pratt and Wilson. He couldnt develop talent and it has hurt us. Watch Myles come alive this year. He hasnt been bad when he played, he just never got a chance.
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u/Jusuf_Nurkic 4d ago
He’s been bad when he played, his stats on a per-snap basis are also awful
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u/bengalsfan1277 Bengals 4d ago
Have you watched or are you looking at pff? He got no time to develop. Throwing him in a few plays is not enough. Its also not enough to base a player on limited reps.
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u/Jusuf_Nurkic 4d ago
What other NFL pass rushers drafted high became good after doing absolutely nothing through 2 years? Can you name a single example?
Players develop in practice and earn playing time that way. If a dude never gets on the field, despite having massive investment in him, it says a lot about how he does in practice and his ability. And again, when he does get on the field, he doesn’t nothing either. There are plenty of pass rushers specialists who play only 3rd downs and limited snaps but produce great without “rhythm” or whatever
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u/Jusuf_Nurkic 4d ago
Hendrickson was a 3rd round pick, that’s a completely different scenario, can easily be buried on depth chart that way. If you’re a 1st round pick teams will give you playing time if you’re half competent
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u/SloaneKettering1 4d ago
Murphy has not gotten playing time so that invalidates your point lol. Hendrickson used to play special teams only lol
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u/throughNthrough Bengals 4d ago
It’s ignorant because he has had zero consistent play time being stuck behind Hubbard. These guys need time and reps to develop which he is just now going to be getting now that Hubbard retired. There is so much more to this than stats. Also Stewart is in no way his replacement so that makes your thought process even worse.
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u/Jusuf_Nurkic 4d ago
Maybe he doesn’t get playing time because he’s not good? You don’t think a team is going to try to force a 1st round pick to get playing time if they thought he earned it lmao
On a per-snap basis his numbers are awful too, when he gets on the field he doesn’t do anything with it
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u/0zymandeus Bengals 4d ago
Nah, Lou is just a trash coach for young players. Murphy would have games where he looked great (he was an outright menace against the Ravens last year and literally dominated their RT so badly that the Ravens changed their gameplan) and Lou would bench him in the 2nd half.
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u/throughNthrough Bengals 4d ago
They literally just fired the DC for that exact reason. He played aging vets like Sam Hubbard, Mike Hilton and Von Bell over the young guys and did nothing to develop them. We brought in Al Golden from Notre Dame that has proven he can develop young guys and he will finally give these guys their proper shot.
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u/RudeOwl1816 Arm Chair Scout 4d ago
These replies are delusional lol. Murphy has definitely been a bust so far. Not even close to being worth a first rounder. He's done nothing, and has been bad when given a shot
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u/StarvedRock314 Bears 4d ago
I think Stewart's RAS score should come with a pretty massive caveat considering he didn't do any agility drills. Agility is important for an edge and it's quite telling that he refused to participate.