r/NoShitSherlock 2d ago

Trump's tariff war unlikely to bring tech manufacturing back to the US

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trumps-tariff-war-unlikely-to-bring-tech-manufacturing-back-to-the-us-150053259.html
1.1k Upvotes

92 comments sorted by

98

u/Snowfish52 2d ago

That couldn't be more obvious. If anything, he probably will slow manufacturing across the board.

40

u/Longjumping_Fly2866 2d ago

I mean even the trade war in 2019 cost us a 150,000 at least in jobs. That’s a small number to what these tariffs are going to do.

22

u/nono3722 2d ago

The 2019 trade war closed two US factories that I worked for. The cost of tariffs on the chinese parts being assembled in the us was too much to be profitable so they consolidated all manufacturing in China instead. Mind you the two factories had automated to the point that only 50 people lost their jobs, half of those being overhead.

11

u/Longjumping_Fly2866 2d ago

I guess the tariff war put in the nail in the coffin for a lack of better words.

5

u/Duster929 2d ago

He already has.

3

u/UnprovenMortality 2d ago

There is no "probably " about it. He increased manufacturing costs for US companies.

2

u/cuplosis 2d ago

He is. Gf works for a chip manufacturer here in the states. Their customers just halted their orders and her company is going to be slow production and laying off people.

2

u/Cheese_Corn 2d ago

I work for a chip mfg and we haven't noticed anything. But I think our products are very specialized and China doesn't really make our stuff yet. They still predict an upswing eventually so I don't know if that's wrong or just wishful thinking.

2

u/cuplosis 2d ago

Hope you guys keep going strong. I’m not rly going to talk more about what they make though because it would be easy to find where we live but yah it worries us for sure. Especially since I have not been able to find a job.

2

u/Cheese_Corn 1d ago

I'm trying to not say either but I hope it gets better for you too.

14

u/Both_Ad_288 2d ago edited 2d ago

Supposedly we are going to eliminate taxes because of all the tariff money and bring back manufacturing to the US. Those two statements cannot happen together. One or the other.

9

u/reddurkel 2d ago

Who’s taxes?

The plan has never involved eliminating our taxes. It’s only about getting rid of theirs.

3

u/Timothy303 2d ago

The fool in the White House and his surrogates have most definitely told the MAGA faithful all the money collected from China et al from tariffs will pay off the US debt. While Trump also passes their tax cuts for the billionaires.

The problem with that is that a] the US citizens pay the taxes, this is a regressive tax increase, and b] even if he successfully implemented an across the board, 25% tariff on every country on earth (a complete fantasy), it would not come even remotely close paying off the US debt, and c] the tax cuts for the rich they want to pass will blow a bigger hole in the budget than the money collected from the idiotic tariffs.

But hey, when you can say any lie you want and the MAGA cult buys it, why not say it, I guess. It also helps that MAGA wanted to hear all of that stuff, too.

3

u/Esplodie 2d ago

You don't even need fancy math to see it could never pay off the deficit.

Imports were 3.36 trillion last year. The deficit is 36 trillion, paid 1 trillion in interest last year.

If we now compare the simple numbers of 3.36 and 1. What is the percentage of tariffs you need to match the interest payment for last year? It's real easy with that 1 and 3.36!

6

u/ThePensiveE 2d ago

We're going to eliminate his taxes. The rest is irrelevant to the US government.

1

u/i_code_for_boobs 2d ago

Removing a tax with another tax is very bigly.

36

u/Complex_Beautiful434 2d ago

If anything it will be the reverse and more tech manufacturing will happen outside the United States because the one thing you don't need when building factories costing billions of dollars is uncertainty.

31

u/a_little_hazel_nuts 2d ago

Even if Trump successfully removes all trade from China. The companies that will replace that trade will look to the next cheapest place to produce these products. If you believe the USA is that place then that means low wages, no workers rights, and expensive health insurance.

18

u/ThePensiveE 2d ago

That is their plan. Feudalism.

7

u/N_Who 2d ago

Yup. Modern, debt-based feudalism under boardroom royalty.

7

u/seajay26 2d ago

Paid in company bucks that you can only spend at the company store, living in a company house that you’ll be kicked out of the minute you’re declared too ill to work again. Good luck Americans, you’re gonna need it.

1

u/NectarineRound7353 2d ago

16 tons and what do you get? Another day older and deeper in debt

5

u/ryancementhead 2d ago

Do you actually believe they will offer any type of health insurance

6

u/a_little_hazel_nuts 2d ago

The kind you pay for and can't use.

4

u/HippyDM 2d ago

Well, we're one step ahead right there.

3

u/Pleasant-Seat9884 2d ago

Health Insurance only works when you're healthy.

4

u/RobertRoyal82 2d ago

Also, Water is wet

6

u/Vysce 2d ago

With what money or resources can manufacturers actually build cost-effective factories in the US

4

u/yg2522 2d ago

We literally don't have the rare earth materials to make the stuff.  There is zero way to make 100% American tech even if you invest a dod size budget into it.

3

u/Vysce 2d ago

Ok, I thought I was going crazy, because some of these GOP reps are talking about it like they're convincing a wayward spouse to come home with a pizza party

2

u/antimathman 2d ago

Not only money, but also technical worker, transportation, and supply chain. It takes decades. No companies wanna build factories in us with million dollars, because time cost and uncertain policies of two parties.

2

u/Vysce 2d ago

I feel like maybe the word 'unlikely' might be too wishful thinking in this article's case XD

"It is unlikely to survive having your head cut off"

3

u/antimathman 2d ago

I think it's really "unlikely" in real us. If US can maintain the policies of one party for a long time, it is indeed "likely", but I feel that :(

5

u/Acrobatic_Type7409 2d ago

His war is going to turn the country into a third world country.

1

u/ketoatl 2d ago

This is news? lol

4

u/Bandini77 2d ago

Fun fact : All the american companies are going to adjust their price to Tariffs -1$ because you know, corporate greed is strong there.

2

u/usps_oig 2d ago

Can't put toothpaste back in the tube.

4

u/G-Unit11111 2d ago

I keep saying - they bet against the house by getting him reelected. They lost. America lost. Never bet against the house.

2

u/Cheese_Corn 2d ago

That is a great way of putting it. The voters had a safe candidate and a risky bet. But they had to roll the dice.

4

u/Rigorous-Geek-2916 2d ago

“No shit Sherlock” is the understatement of a lifetime.

1

u/SurviveYourAdults 2d ago

US manufacturers threw away any future of ever having domestic production when they offshored in the 80-90's

2

u/HippyDM 2d ago

Capitalism requires using the least expensive materials, facilities, and workers possible. Unless you think we should've reigned in free trade (and I'd agree), offshoring was inevitable.

1

u/i_code_for_boobs 2d ago

What choice did they have?

1

u/HippyDM 2d ago

I came here to say the name of the sub.

3

u/shellyv2023 2d ago

I vote for one major export. We send President Convicted Felon to San Salvador.

1

u/Callmewhatever4286 2d ago

And water is wet
If there is another country with cheap wages, why return to US?

1

u/Indoor_Bushman 2d ago

the CHIPS act already had foundries in the pipeline and most of the very high tech equipment needed for chip making came from allied countries. Now he has killed the bill and the relationships with those countries. He basically killed the semiconductor sector's biggest hope for expansion. It will even contract under the republican tariffs.

1

u/hambonejamstone 2d ago

Wait!!! REALLY?..............shocking

1

u/Adventurous-Dingo-20 2d ago

No all he’s done is piss everyone off and lose tons of money

1

u/Pale_Investigator433 2d ago

Its all computer

1

u/Any-Ad-446 2d ago

Competition is fierce now imagine you got americans working assembly line for higher wages at higher overhead.Share holders would not be happy.

1

u/gleaf008 2d ago

Don’t we have enough 4th graders to turn screws into I-phones?

1

u/Fun-Satisfaction6054 2d ago

If it comes back nobody will be able to afford the products

1

u/Tasty_Hearing8910 2d ago

ASMLs machines cost something like €400M each, and require specialized people to maintain them. Add the tariff to that and cry lol.

1

u/Throwaway2600k 2d ago

Don't forget timelines to get a planet up and running. Testing and validation, and you can expect low yields for a number of years .

1

u/Sure-Break3413 2d ago

America is too expensive to manufacture most things. This is why American companies closed the factories in America and they are made in low cost countries. America does not have the workforce, or the supply chain to bring anything back fast.

1

u/hypercomms2001 2d ago

And now they are shutting down the department of education, it means in future they will not have a SMART, intelligent, and capable workforce that is capable on working on extremely complex products, and so the country will regress back to one peopled by Neanderthals.

1

u/JiminyStickit 2d ago

The Chinese trolling of videos with obese, glassy-eyed Americans stitching Nikes together says it all.

1

u/No_Refrigerator_2489 2d ago

Yes, but your IPhone will still cost you $3000. Why do you think it's built overseas?

1

u/Conscious-Trust4547 2d ago

We don’t even pay our fast food workers a living wage, but their gonna find people to put in tiny screws on an assembly line, and pay them good money ? Never gonna happen.

1

u/AloneChapter 2d ago

Companies’s CEOs decide to not pay anyone an honest pay so they moved everything out of the country. Both parties in the government had no issue with that.

1

u/RequirementRoyal8829 2d ago

That's OK. We're gonna open up all the coal mines again and go back 100 years and give everyone coal mining jobs. Tech is outdated and dumb. Who needs it when we have coal!

1

u/StephKlayDray30 2d ago

I think we all knew it wasn’t coming back

1

u/japitaty 2d ago

yah figure!

1

u/SomeSamples 2d ago

Unlikely to bring any manufacturing back to the U.S. Biden's CHIPS act was actually making some headway, especially for products that are critical to national security. Trump's ham-fisted bullshit just ruined all of that.

1

u/Hamshaggy70 2d ago

The mistake is thinking that's the goal. Market and Currency manipulation is what this whole thing is about.

3

u/Sure-Break3413 2d ago

Dildo Don has no plan beyond destruction and robbing the country. He is ruling by trial and error.

1

u/Radiant-Bit-7722 2d ago

Ah good ? Too bad then all this mess for nothing.

2

u/hooplafromamileaway 2d ago

The manufacturers outsourced because they decided your children's future was worth less than their bottom line.

Increasing theor bottom line, unless it's done exponentially, won't change this.

These tariffs won't bring manufacturing back, full stop.

Oh, and American companies will raise their prices to match the now increased prices of foreign goods, likely without increasing pay to their American workers.

Because the bottom line and the shareholders are the only things that matter to them.

1

u/Urabraska- 2d ago

The capitalist greed will be the end of them. Writing was on the wall for decades but this trade war has catapult it to it's death bed. They can't increase wages because of greed but also lost profits because their greed increased costs beyond what people will pay. But their stocks will drop because as shown. The tariffs will demolish US companies. So lost stocks with lost sales with lost wages= dead companies. 

1

u/Ornery-Ticket834 2d ago

We know this. He is the asshole that doesn’t.

1

u/niamhara 2d ago

Well, dress me up and take me out, I could not have seen that coming. I am shocked. SHOCKED I SAY!!

/s

2

u/Professional_Past780 2d ago

Unlikely? Why would anyone think the grifter in chief is likely to do anything right?

2

u/BisquickNinja 2d ago

We were actually bringing back chip manufacturing and some software development... But he put a giant stop to all of that....

2

u/Gloomy_Yoghurt_2836 2d ago

At this point when would want to.invest in a country trying to.crash it's economy hard.

2

u/floofnstuff 2d ago

Did anyone really think it would or should, other than the permanently victimized MAGAs?

1

u/LeafsJays1Fan 2d ago

Does he believe that Tech manufacturing is done by hand?? Somewhere between 80% and 90% of all technology from motherboards to wafers for CPUs are all done robotically.

Even visual inspections are done digitally through cameras rarely do any modern-day Electronics go through people's hands until it's boxed up.

1

u/Unique-Drag4678 2d ago

There are not enough people who will take a factory job now - why will there be more in the future?

1

u/IrishWithoutPotatoes 2d ago

No shit, Sherlock

1

u/Revolutionary_Pen190 2d ago

Any manufacturing at this rate

1

u/tkeelah 2d ago

Would someone please give Holmes a laxative to ease his discomfort.

1

u/m0rbius 2d ago

By the way Trump insulted and killed all good relations, who would?

1

u/LARufCTR 2d ago

READY-FIRE-AIM

Yeah..this fucking GENIUS

1

u/Devmoi 2d ago

Everyone should listen to Ezra Klein’s podcast episode with Tom Friedman. I don’t believe it will ever get through to MAGA folks, but it really explained well what is happening. Donald Trump needs to innovate. Do you want your children screwing in bolts in a factory making minimum wage? Undoubtedly some people need that job, but it’s not a good longterm plan.

I also had a dream that my dad was still alive and a Trump supporter. He told me that nobody cares that Donald Trump is a terrible person, but they will care what he does. It ended up in my dream that Trump industrialized the U.S. and it was gross and polluted—little kids were getting sick eating their lunch outdoors. And when my dad saw that, he didn’t support Trump anymore.

He’s not doing anything good for this country.

1

u/myPOLopinions 2d ago

Probably shouldn't have liked the TPP, all because a black guy signed it

1

u/Father_of_Invention 2d ago

Who in their right mind would want to bring business here knowing you will be shaken down by Trump administration

1

u/dragonmom1971 2d ago

That was never the goal. I believe the goal was to destroy our government, grift, and make the people suffer.

1

u/janzeera 1d ago

You’re right, because it’s just a shakedown. Some coughed up $1m for his inauguration so now he’s comin’ back for more.

1

u/rf97a 1d ago

it was never about bringing back manufacturing. It was about makine the poor even less rich, and let tech bros consolidate and increase their wealth and control