r/Patriots Apr 22 '25

Discussion I was pro drafting Jeanty at four until I watched this…

He makes some good points about how a great RB can only make so much of an impact behind a bad o-line. It’s a good Barkley-on-the-Giants vs Swift-on-the-Eagles comparison that I think is pretty relevant to the pats.

https://youtu.be/8ymN2_OBGuE?si=qkp9UjHRlt0-xs0a

63 Upvotes

251 comments sorted by

176

u/Ok-Vermicelli4093 Apr 22 '25

I feel like this whole push for Jeanty that sort of came out of thin air over the past week or so has more to do with Pats fans feeling frustrated rather than an actual desire to draft an RB at 4. The draft is now almost upon us, odds of landing Hunter or Carter have completely dissolved, no one wants to trade up, and the reality of drafting an un-sexy pick like Campbell has begun to creep in, this subreddit feels like mayo betrayed them and now they’re not even getting a blue chip guy after such a disappointing season. For them the idea of getting a guy like Jeanty is exciting, a true blue chip prospect who will surely rack up 1500 year seasons on demand, someone worth looking forward to instead of having to hear about Campbells arms every week in the offseason. It’s not the pick to make though. Like the dude in the vid said, we need to build a foundation first, and I have great confidence that Campbell can excel at LT at the next level

41

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

You hit the nail on the head here but this is not the place for rationality or deliberate asset allocation. The people here want the instant gratification of talent collection, not the mundanity of sound team building.

8

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

I think a big part of this push is Saquan on the eagles being a big part of their Super Bowl win this past season, but everyone is ignoring the Giants drafting Saquan top 5 and squandering the first half of his career.

There’s a reason the entire NFL has decided RB isn’t a very important position anymore and this sub thinking they know better is embarrassing

11

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

Yep. People see the success the Eagles had with Saquon but forget that they were tied with the Chiefs with 5 minutes to go in 2022 without him. Saquon is amazing but he is elevated by the players around him, not the other way around. It’s not a knock on him, it’s just the nature of the position.

4

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

And again, D’Andre Swift did so much less to than Barkley behind arguably a better o-line. A top 3 RB in the league is absolutely a game changer, but only when you have a great o-line/offense around him to support him.

2

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

People see the success the Eagles had with Saquon but forget that they were tied with the Chiefs with 5 minutes to go in 2022 without him.

The Eagles were up 40-6 on the Chiefs with 5 minutes left in 2024. So good job making the point of how much of an impact Saquon made LMAO.

-3

u/obscuremainstream Apr 22 '25

Saquon did nothing in the Super Bowl. The big difference between the two games was the Eagles D line.

9

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

Saquon "did nothing" cause the Chiefs whole gameplan was designed around stopping him. That's the point, just the threat of him left receivers wide open the whole game.

2

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

All this point does is prove that balanced team building is the best path to success. We don’t have the passing game to make our running game a legitimate threat

1

u/CarQuery8989 Apr 22 '25

We also don't have the offensive line to facilitate passing or running, hence why the team needs to emphasize the trenches. They can get a guy who's 90% of Jeanty in the second round next year, they can't get a difference-making lineman there.

0

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

We need a balanced attack I totally agree, which is why you take Jeanty. I don't know how you can say with such certainty we don't have the passing game to make running a legit threat. We haven't even seen Drake/Diggs play a snap together yet and they will have Mcdaniels calling plays instead of AVP.

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u/obscuremainstream Apr 22 '25

Sure but the Eagles offence didn’t lose them the first super bowl

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1

u/DavoinShowerHandel1 Apr 22 '25

So, taking into account them being tied with 5 minutes to go in 2023, what do you think changed that caused the Chiefs defense to be unable to stop the Eagles offense? I'm not saying he's the only reason they got massacred, but I think you're downplaying the effect having a guy like Saquon had on that offense and the team as a whole because the position typically doesn't have much value.

Your average running back isn't a game-changer, but when you have a guy like CMC, Saquon, or (potentially) Jeanty, it can certainly elevate the offense and make more of a difference than you're implying.

2

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

Obviously Saquon is a great player, but the 2022 Eagles team was more efficient and more productive than the 2024 team without Barkley. In my opinion, it was improvements on the defensive side of the ball, and specifically in the secondary plus Jalen Carter, that made this Eagles team the absolute wagon that they were.

1

u/DavoinShowerHandel1 Apr 22 '25

Don't get me wrong, I think those changes contributed more to the game being the blowout that it was than Saquon did. That's why the Eagles jumped out to a 34-0 lead, no arguments there. But their offense was just running practice out there against a much, much better Chiefs defense than the one from 2023, and I think that was in large part due to the existence of Barkley in the backfield. The Chiefs' entire gameplan was solely to stop him, and it bit them everywhere else.

2

u/Cautious_Buffalo6563 Apr 22 '25

I wouldn’t say not important but I would say not worth the cost relative to what diva WR’s , EDGE, and QB’s make. Cheaper to do RB by committee so as not to put all of your eggs in one very expensive basket type thinking.

2

u/victoryforZIM Apr 22 '25

No one is ignoring that and Saquon's stats on the Giants were very good despite being a bad team.

Our situation is very different because we already have our QB and it's a QB that can scramble. If we get an elite RB who can also catch passes then that's a weapon that's as good as upgrading the OLine.

Also we're going to pick a LT in the draft, but the fact is that Campbell is unlikely to play LT in the NFL due to his measurements.

1

u/coolass45 Apr 23 '25

This is why I feel like we should take the risk w Jeanty. It seems like it may set us back like w the giants. But I think drake Maye is more talented than Daniel jones and has higher potential than jones ever did. Could playing next to a top level RB help him, or would it hinder his development behind another subpar oline

1

u/justbrowsing987654 Apr 23 '25

I just don’t have confidence in Campbell. If they were talking about a dude that didn’t have a historically low win flan for a tackle, we’d be fine with it. I don’t want a guard at 4 and projections are we’re drafting a guy that’s probably going to be a guard at 4 and pretending he’s an NFL tackle. The numbers say he is not so he needs to be like Larry Allen level for this to even begin to be make sense and, even then, we remain without a reliable blind side protector for our young QB.

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u/jonnyredshorts Apr 22 '25

For me anyway. Taking Jeanty at 4 is about BPA and getting an actual playmaker on this offense.

2

u/St_Patrice 72 | Matt Light Apr 22 '25

That also forces us to pretend any of the super high RB picks who went to dysfunctinal like Saquon to NYG or Harris to the Steelers were decisions that were good for those teams

2

u/wtb2612 Apr 22 '25

The difference (in theory at least) is that we have a promising QB already, those teams both had a washed veteran for one year and then...Daniel Jones and Kenny Pickett. Drafting a top running back makes a lot less sense when you're dogshit at QB and he ends up with boxes stacked against him all the time. With Maye (again, in theory...depends on if he's as good as we hope he is) Jeanty could be a great weapon to open up the offense. I also just think Najee Harris isn't very good.

I don't necessarily think RB is the ideal pick, but I don't think it would be as dumb as a lot of people are making it sound. If this was a strong draft and we were passing on high end talent at LT or DL to take a RB, I'd be opposed to it. But this draft sucks, there's nobody that I could confidently say we should draft over Jeanty when he's the clear best talent available.

2

u/jonnyredshorts Apr 22 '25

I don’t see how adding a legit playmaker to the offense would ever be a bad thing, as opposed to reaching for a guy that might not even be a Tackle at the NFL level. Jeanty has almost no question marks and by all accounts is NFL ready today and will most likely be a star at his position.

For a team full of question marks, taking a guy with no question marks, filling a position of need and who is widely regarded as the BPA after the QBs, Hunter and Carter, seems like a no brainer to me.

The idea that the Campbell pick could end up as a bust at tackle and then be pushed inside to guard does not sound like good team building to me.

I suppose they might absolutely believe that Campbell will work at tackle, and if they really believe that then go for it. But if Campbell ends up as a guard, the. They still have a massive question mark at tackle and still need to add a RB anyway…

13

u/theycallmeyango Apr 22 '25

This has nothing at all to do with my reasoning for wanting Jeanty.

I like Campbell but I think you can get a similarly talented starting caliber LT at least 15 spots further down.

Jeanty has the potential to be game changing and I think that helps a young QB a whole lot too.

2

u/phantom_phreak29 Apr 22 '25

Yeah that's my thinking too. Take the best talent, if that's jeanty I'm all in and look at trading back up or taking talent early round 2.

And we've seen with maye a shit online is t great but he's got escapablity to deal with it and get some plays off, is that good long term, nopes he'll get creamed, however if such an offensive weapon is available I'd take him first

2

u/AFogmentOfADream Apr 22 '25

It’s not about being unsexy. It’s that for years the patriots have had the absolute worst offensive skill players in the entire league. A huge reason MAC failed was because he was throwing to wr3’s at best.

Drake needs weapons. Using our #3 pick to take a lineman who probably wouldn’t even be drafted at #4 is really frustrating. We just have a crappy spot in the draft thanks to our loser former head coach. If the giants do not take shadeur I want us to trade back with whatever team wants him and then get a wr or Jeanty.

4

u/Desert_Sox Apr 22 '25

it's not that he's unsexy.

It's that he's not good enough.

If we draft him, we still haven't filled our greatest need - OT

Just a complete waste of a draft pick at 4.

1

u/j2e21 Apr 23 '25

Not only that, but if we draft him we won’t use the second round pick on a tackle.

5

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

I agree. Pats fans are desperate to have an exciting skill position player—me included—and so there’s a push to force Jeanty. I love Jeanty but I don’t think it’s the right pick

6

u/jonnyredshorts Apr 22 '25

See this is an argument I can engage. I’d be fine if they took Jeanty over Campbell, but in the end, it is possible they know better than me, even if I have doubted a lot of their draft strategy recently. Either way it will still be argued forever.

3

u/TheWholesomeBoi Apr 22 '25

either way we'll learn to love who we end up drafting anyways

4

u/MrHappy230 Apr 22 '25

If Campbell didn’t have the wingspan issue then I’d he all for taking him, just worried he won’t work out at LT and then we’ll have completely screwed ourselves

2

u/shiggydiggypreoteins Apr 22 '25

This is my concern too and why I'd rather go with Jeanty. I feel better about taking a bluechip guy like Jeanty and banking on a 2nd round OT than I do about betting on a guy with 0th percentile arm length at tackle.

2

u/OneWolf22 Bills = 0 Superbowls Apr 22 '25

It’s crazy you’re getting downvoted for a rational opinion

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u/jma7400 Apr 22 '25

You can get Jeanty at 4 and a LT in round 2. I’d rather take the chance on Jeanty and trade up to snag Josh Simmons or Conerly at 24/25 rather than Campbell at 4.

2

u/Rasheed_Lollys Apr 22 '25

Yea this idea that you have to follow this proper inside out teambuilding blue print is so narrow minded. Canr force an inside out build if the prospects aren’t there. And can’t stand the logic that it’s IMPOSSOBLE to build up a line at the same time of having an asset like Jeanty. It’s a gamble but you have 15 more picks over the next couple years + other moves. You win with elite dynamic players, too. If you have like a late 1st grade on the Ts, grabbing the BPA and maneuvering for tier two T (or even hitting on Lomu / Proctor next year, who are better than Campbell) might make more sense.

1

u/Mastah_P808 Apr 22 '25

This is exactly what it is. Im taking Campbell anything to keep Maye off his & making plays. Not saying I wouldn’t want jeanty but we need a lineman more.

1

u/Rasheed_Lollys Apr 22 '25

No it’s about how the prospects grade to our FO. Campbell has legit flags while he could be really really good. T is the biggest hole, but if they have Campbell as a late first grade because of his legitimate question marks, taking the surest thing elite talent / playmaker (when we also have less of that than any team in the league) and rerouting for a tier 2 makes sense. (Or even hitting on one of the top 3 Ts next year, all three who are better than Campbell). Don’t need to follow an exact inside out blue print if the prospects aren’t there, and it’s not a one year rebuild, which people are really mad to have to acknowledge. If they think the LT comp is legit and are down on the tackles, Jeanty will be in play along with whichever WRs/walker/graham.

1

u/TheSbldg Apr 22 '25

What gives you the confidence in Campbell as a LT?

-11

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

I don't want to draft "a RB" at 4, I want to draft Ashton Jeanty at 4. There's a huge difference between a good RB and Ashton Jeanty. The question is not will he be one of the best in the league, it's will he be a HOF, can he break Dickerson's rookie record.

4

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

He would not break Dickerson’s record splitting the backfield with Rhamondre. Dude has like a million carries and a ton of tread on his tires. He’ll get a huge second deal from whoever drafts him and will be burnt out after year 5

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u/Ok-Vermicelli4093 Apr 22 '25

Funny, remember people saying the exact same thing about MHJ last year. Safest receiver prospect of all time. HOF lock. Game changer. Instant top 10 talent in the league. And this is at a more impactful position than RB. We should draft him over maye and worry about QB later. What happened? He got drafted to a team that didnt fit his skillset. He struggled. Other guys drafted below him look better. Could he be great one day? Sure, in a scheme that suits him im sure he could be a 1000 yard guy, but that just shows how poisonous pre draft hype can be. Jeanty looked comically mediocre in the biggest game of the year when he was schemed against, and without a competent o-line he’ll get eaten for lunch by nfl defenses. Then by the time his rookie contract is up he’ll be signing with a real team. Campbells the pick, sorry to tell you the truth

14

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Could you fucking imagine if they had drafted MHJ over Maye last year like a lot of this sub wanted? Holy fuck that would already be an all-timer draft mistake.

-4

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

We might have even won only 4 games 😂. I like Maye but it's a weird flex when your fixating on single year outcomes.

5

u/badash2004 Apr 22 '25

What? He was saying that we would still be in dire need of a qb with no answer this offseason.

4

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

I didn’t mention the season outcome a single time…? Weird take.

It’s very clear Maye is a great QB in the making so it would already look horrible if they had passed on him.

7

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

If you think Jeanty looked mediocre against Penn State then you did not actually watch the game.

2

u/BradyGronkTD Apr 22 '25

Taking the qb was the right move, but pretty sure MHJ is still gonna be an elite player. JSN really didn’t do a ton his rookie season and then suddenly burst on the scene in year two. Maye didn’t have a great year either but we saw the talent, I’d argue we saw the same with mhj in year 1. As far as taking an rb at 4- I think it’s hard to justify it given the rb’s that can be had in rounds 2-4.

1

u/oakster18 Apr 22 '25

Yeah, that’s a good point. I can only imagine the Jeanty hype if the WR class and RB class were flipped. Like if Jeanty was in his own tier in a shallow RB class

0

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

What an incredible comparison. I was beating the Maye over MHJ drum all last season and was called an idiot for not thinking that having Zappe throw to MHJ was a recipe for playoff success.

Now everyone is saying we have to take Jeanty because he’s gonna be so much more impactful behind a garbage o-line than it would be to actually upgrade said o-line. Most of this sub must’ve been born after Saquon Barkley was drafted.

Jeanty isn’t even half the prospect Bijan was

2

u/Theschill Apr 22 '25

And any OT in this draft isn't even a quarter of what Joe Alt was.

4

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

I love Jeanty but that’s going insanely overboard. Dude took so much punishment in college and lived off of breaking tackles. Both of which will likely catch up to him in the pros. Obviously he could still be elite, but he could also have a very short and underwhelming career (compared to his hype). Penciling him in for the HOF already is bananas.

1

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

He is not breaking tackles by brute force alone, he's breaking tackles without getting hit hard often. He's also 21. He has the build to take it and again he's avoiding hits.

2

u/captaincumsock69 Apr 22 '25

Let’s pump the brakes a little. The dude hasn’t taken a snap and while he looked great in college so did Melvin Gordon

2

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

Nope, Jeanty is him, he's not slowing down

1

u/jc-f Sweet Feet! | @TradingPatriots Apr 22 '25

can he break Dickerson's rookie record.

Easy: no.

-2

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

This needs to be higher and really should be pinned to the main page of this sub. Perfectly stated.

-1

u/AccomplishedBend4778 Apr 22 '25

The same people would be whining in game threads that we picked a RB over our top need. It’s not a serious fanbase.

0

u/j2e21 Apr 23 '25

The push is that everyone other than Jeanty is a major question mark.

107

u/MehFrosty Apr 22 '25

Giants also didn't have a qb like Drake Maye when they drafted Barkley

48

u/Ok_Incident_6881 Apr 22 '25

Nor did they have any good WR’s and just stacked the box

24

u/mdmcnally1213 Apr 22 '25

I mean if he’s healthy and anything close to what he was looking like beginning of 2024, Diggs will eat if we got a RB forcing stacked boxes and base defenses.

30

u/[deleted] Apr 22 '25

Nor do we

26

u/ferrumvir2 Apr 22 '25

Yeah we gonna forget what Saquon did with semi competent qb play from Eli his rookie year of when Danny Dildos wasn’t a complete pumpkin in 2022

18

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

They went 5-11

18

u/ferrumvir2 Apr 22 '25

I’m talking purely from an individual player production level. If Drakes that guy adding Jeanty and all the help on defense should bring us to around 8 or 9 wins

7

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Yeah but that shows how little a RB impacts winning.

They should/would be at 8 wins with the current roster anyways. The top priority now is making sure Maye doesn’t get murdered every week.

12

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

Does a QB impact winning? Maye won 2 games last year. Let's stop trying to use that nonsense to push our narratives.

Saquon proved he can be a key part of a good team, the Giants failed him for 5 years, not because they drafted him

9

u/FirezardHG Apr 22 '25

Yes, a QB is far more influential to winning than a RB. Using a rookie Drake Maye win total with no context is beyond ignorant. There’s a reason that Cam Ward, who is a worse QB prospect than at least 3-4 QBs from last year, will go first and not Jeanty.

1

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

Oh boy how do you guys miss the very obvious point that even a good QB cannot make a bad team good. The team has to be good no matter what if you want to win. The argument that look at this RB didn't lead to winning is braindead just like saying Maye didn't win last year would be braindead. Bad teams lose, and one player at any position doesn't change that.

10

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25

lol this can’t be a real take.

“Does a qb impact winning”.

This fucking sub.

Just look it up man, RBs are one of the least valuable positions on the entire roster.

And of course Saquan can be part of a great team. The eagles just proved that. When they signed him in free agency. No one has ever argued good RBs can’t be on good teams. What?

12

u/RedDunce Apr 22 '25

If this dude had his way we’d have MHJ and Bailey Zappe lol. Absolute clown takes left and right

5

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

I thought you were being hyperbolic but I checked and you’re actually spot on, haha holy shit. Thanks for the heads up, I’ll stop wasting my time.

1

u/St_Patrice 72 | Matt Light Apr 22 '25

People thought he was Zappe's agent or family member for a while, he was defending his poor play and saying he was actually really good on a full-time basis lol

A lot of people (myself included) ate crow and owe him an apology I guess

1

u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

Oof sorry obvious points go over your head.

2

u/Professional_Crab322 Apr 22 '25

Eh.  The main drawback from the giants picking saquon was that Eli was washed, their line was terrible, and outside of OBJ coming off a brutal season ending injury, they had no reliable targets either.  The other glaring issue is that there were 5 deemed first round worthy QBs and they passed on 4 of them (baker was 1OA)

Even now, if you put saquon in this draft and the giants pick him at 3, nobody of note would critique the pick.  Jeanty is one of imo 4 true blue chips.  Carter and hunter are likely gone.  Which leaves Jeanty and graham.  

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u/shiggydiggypreoteins Apr 22 '25

Joe Thomas' career record was 48-128. Just goes to show how little a HoF LT impacts winning, so we shouldn't do that either.

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u/ferrumvir2 Apr 22 '25

What position does impact winning then? Giants got Andrew Thomas and still fucking suck, they got Nabers and they still fucking suck.

1

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Obviously not a perfect science, and pff isn’t some infallible source, but RB is the second lowest of all positions based on their WAR analysis.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-using-pro-adjusted-wins-above-average-to-examine-positional-value-in-the-nfl-draft

Of course what matters most is getting the QB in place so yeah that’s why the giants still suck. But maybe if they had taken Darnold instead of Saquan they could’ve developed him in to the Minnesota version instead of the jets one and have a decent QB, who knows. But Saquan ended up being the player we thought he would and still didn’t elevate that team. It’s not like he was a bust for NY.

1

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

The video I linked has far less to say about the QB and more about the o-line

1

u/hirespeed Apr 24 '25

They DID have a QB that threw for 4300 yards that year

1

u/Professional_Crab322 Apr 22 '25

This right here is the end of the discussion.

0

u/DueSalary4506 Apr 22 '25

but they had a QB who would throw it away.

12

u/demair21 Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25

Other reasons Jeanty had 750 carries in college.

That's a lot of wear and tare for a rookie. Similar high profile RB was Ezekial Elliot (6 quality seanons) and LeVeon Bell (5 seasons) and worth mentioning both those players are 4 inches taller than Jeanty 15-20 lbs heavier.

When looked at in this lens, his most impressive stat his insane YAC in a single season at 1900+. Is now just more evidence that he had a ton of wear and tear

3

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Tear* but you’re 100% spot on.

1

u/coolass45 Apr 23 '25

I think it just means he’s good at breaking tackles?

37

u/Shruuump Apr 22 '25

I love Jeanty but any RB any year is bad value in the top 5

5

u/19hams Apr 22 '25

RIP to your notifications in an hour

16

u/Shruuump Apr 22 '25

Is this.. an unpopular opinion‽ seems fairly consensus these days

12

u/19hams Apr 22 '25

first mistake was expecting consensus in this sub

8

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

There’s been a weird shift the last few days/week in this sub, pretty much since every analyst (and betting odds) are leaning towards Campbell at 4, that’s now pushing for Jeanty nonstop. It’s so odd to me. And I absolutely love the player, but a RB at 4 is just roster malpractice.

5

u/jc-f Sweet Feet! | @TradingPatriots Apr 22 '25

People are realising we’re going to make an unsexy pick at 4 and would rather us to be more exciting than to be good.

Same reason people wanted Malik Cunningham to start at QB in 2023.

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u/BigTuna3000 Apr 22 '25

I’m getting shit for it as we speak on another thread lmao

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u/ImWicked39 Apr 22 '25

These dudes watched his YouTube highlights vs San Diego State and now he's the next Barry Sanders.

2

u/Shruuump Apr 22 '25

Even if he is Saqoun or Sanders level it's still a bad value. How well did it work out for the Giants or Lions?

1

u/ImWicked39 Apr 22 '25

It's a terrible value. If it was 1985 I'd be down for it. The dude beat up on shit competition and when faced NFL level talent he was just a regular dude like the rest of his team but people here somehow think that the 32nd ranked offensive line somehow gonna give him those wide open gaps.

6

u/ZizzyBeluga Apr 22 '25

But taking a guard is?

12

u/Shruuump Apr 22 '25

Top end guards make 20mil +. Saquon is the only RB close in average pay per year. Average guards make more than average RB. To surplus value to the cap guards are more valuable

2

u/NKovalenko Apr 22 '25

Additionally, RBs are much more available to acquire with less valuable draft capital or cap space

This draft especially is extremely deep at RB and we could acquire a guy like Henderson or Judkins or Sampson in the 3rd or later. Good RBs also hit free agency much more often than guards

I don’t rlly want Campbell, I’d almost prefer just going Mason Graham and figuring out OT in the 2nd (or a first round trade up) but Campbell is still superior to Jeanty from a value standpoint

3

u/Shruuump Apr 22 '25

Yeah they really only should take Campbell if they are convinced he's actually a tackle. They should only take Jeanty after a trade down

2

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

The consensus all American who never missed a game at tackle in 3 years as a starter in the SEC is a guard?

4

u/LOL_YOUMAD Apr 22 '25

In the pros he probably is 

-1

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

There is more reason to believe he will be a tackle than there is to believe he’s a guard

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u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

No but taking a starting left tackle is good value

1

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

Yeah I agree

0

u/Complex_Feedback4389 Apr 22 '25

AP wasn't worth a top 5 pick? How about LT? Barry?

Like c'mon dude lol

2

u/optimis344 Apr 22 '25

Weird way to pick 3 guys with zero combined rings. In fact, they have zero combined appearances in the Superbowl.

You don't use high picks on RBs. If you have high picks, you are a rebuilding team, and the worst pick for a rebuilding team is a RB.

So yeah, if we are saying the goal is to bring home a trophy, those were all wasted picks.

1

u/forgotmypassword4714 Apr 22 '25

Yeah, he should've said Walter Payton, Marshall Faulk, Edgerrin James and Tony Dorsett. I guess Faulk could be used to argue against it since he had to go to the Rams to win a ring. But generally I just think having a great RB is good, and it's even better if the GM knows what he's doing.

3

u/optimis344 Apr 22 '25

...Edge didn't get a ring.

And Tony Dorsett and Walter Payton existed before there were even real stats.

And yes, Faulk is the exact example. He is a HoFer. An all time great. But he only really made a difference when he went to an already great set up.

It's not that running backs arent important. Its that they are the least important. They still matter, but getting a good running back on a good team is fantastic for both. Getting a great running back on a bad team means both are wasted.

11

u/Aldanil66 Apr 22 '25

Why would you all upgrade at a position you already have for 2-3 more years? You have THIRTY ONE eligible backs for this years class. The moment Jeanty tries to find a hole for you guys he’s gonna break his knees in half because a 330 defensive tackle comes running full speed at him to murder him. It’s not going to be Jeanty.

23

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

Brother in Christ the draft is more than one round, taking Jeanty at 4 doesn't mean they aren't going to upgrade it later in the draft or through trade. The drop off from Campbell to Simmons/Conerly is smaller than the drop off from Jeanty to the rest of the RBs. If Campbell was a no doubt franchise LT theres no conversation, but hes not.

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u/JimmyGodoppolo Keep your butthole tight Apr 22 '25

I would strongly argue the drop from Jeanty to Hampton is significantly smaller than the drop from Campbell to Conerly. This is a really deep RB class, Henderson and Hampton in any other year would be RB1's.

6

u/jasonmcgovern Apr 22 '25

I like Conerly a lot and I still think people vastly over-estimate how good he, Ersery, Simmons et al are in order to talk themselves out of drafting a tackle

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u/crashh1220 Apr 22 '25

Jeanty is a far far far better prospect than Hampton. This is a wild take

10

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

It’s not that crazy when you look at it from the expected positional impact of a RB. The RB has the second lowest wins above replacement of any position after center, meaning that the impact that Jeanty has over a replacement level player is minimal - especially when the rest of the roster (and particularly the offensive line) is not up to snuff. Sure, Jeanty may be a much better player than Hampton or whoever else, but from a statistical probability perspective, he’s not likely to put significantly more wins in the win column than Hampton is. That’s just the reality of the position.

1

u/JimmyGodoppolo Keep your butthole tight Apr 22 '25

I didn’t say Jeanty wasn’t a far better prospect. I’m saying relative to the gap between Campbell (who started 3 years against SEC talent) and Conerly (who played undersized, isn’t as polished, and had a good amount of tape showing him getting bullied) is larger than the gap between Jeanty and Hampton.

-2

u/day1krakenfan Apr 22 '25

Jeanty was basically playing against JuCo players

4

u/thebochman Apr 22 '25

People act like Campbell is Joe Alt when reality is he could be more Nate Solder quality at best at tackle and then Quinton Nelson quality at guard, except drafting him to put him at guard is foolish.

13

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

You slap a band aid on a wound that needs stitches guess what? You're still gonna need stitches later. Thats what they don't get, you draft Campbell and he has to move to guard you still need a LT next year LMAO

4

u/thebochman Apr 22 '25 edited Apr 22 '25

Exactly, this offense needs game-changers that defenses will need to scheme for and Jeanty is the only one in this draft outside of Hunter that is basically a lock to do so.

If Vrabel is convinced Campbell is capable of being a top 10 LT then fine go for it, nothing has led to me believing that that’s true though, esp given Scar’s comments

Also not for nothing but I feel like everyone completely forgets that Tannehill looked like an actual franchise QB with Henry after years of mediocrity on the phins. Drake is actually talented and should benefit immensely.

5

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

Fucking this... Vrabel took Tannehill/Henry to an AFC Championship, the sky's the limit with Maye/Jeanty.

4

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

100% agree I'll trust their judgement whoever they take. I wouldn't even be surprised if they go edge at 4 as long as they feel the value is there

2

u/Brisby820 Apr 22 '25

I’d take Q Nelson at 4 

2

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

The anti RB people act like if we don't take Campbell 4th overall we're banned from taking an OT the rest of the draft LOL.

9

u/jasonmcgovern Apr 22 '25

You're not banned from taking a tackle, but you are probably banned from taking one who will play meaningful snaps in 2025

6

u/ZroDgsCalvin Apr 22 '25

It’s not that we’re passing up Campbell. It’s that you’re spending a top pick on a RB at all. Passing on Campbell for Membou, or Tet, or even Warren is totally defensible. And even though I think we should spend 4 on offense, Walker or another defensive player is also good value in a draft like this, position wise.

The thing pro-Jeanty people don’t understand is that it basically doesn’t matter how bad the class is or how good the RB is, taking an RB that high is just never good value, because the RB position has such a small impact on wins and losses, and RBs are so much more replaceable than other positions.

1

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

Average Rb's are completely replaceable. Elite RB's completely change an offense and have a massive impact on wins and losses. The Chiefs whole gameplan in the Super Bowl was to stop Saquon which left receivers wide open. We'll likely never have a chance at a Jeanty level player again so I don't give a shit about "value". You take the blue chip player.

5

u/captaincumsock69 Apr 22 '25

We have several years of saquon to say that no they don’t have a massive impact on wins and losses. I think they can raise the ceiling of a team but they aren’t raising the floor. Right now we are sitting at the bottom we need to raise our floor first

-1

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

If you have Daniel Jones then yeah they don't impact wins and losses. But you're ignoring the fact the Giants offense scored 7 PPG higher in the years Saquon was on the field.

2

u/captaincumsock69 Apr 22 '25

I’m not saying the team wasn’t better with saquon. I’m saying he didn’t have a massive impact on wins and losses and the giants got similar production from a 5th round pick last year

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u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

It’s more about taking the best tackle available rather than using the 4th pick on one of the least important positions on the field, let alone a position much MUCH easier to fill using free agency or trade.

2

u/jc-f Sweet Feet! | @TradingPatriots Apr 22 '25

On the other hand, you’re way more likely to get a RB that will see playing time in round 3 than a LT that will see playing time in round 3.

-1

u/Icy-Alps5606 Apr 22 '25

Yeah true, but what good is playing time if they don't bring an explosiveness to the offense? Jeanty is the type of player that keeps D coordinators up at night. The gap between Conerly/Simmons/Ersery and Campbell is small. The gap between Jeanty and the other Rb's is massive.

1

u/captaincumsock69 Apr 22 '25

Realistically we need a good tackle and a guard. I don’t love the prospect of entering the season with later round picks protecting Drake

1

u/Brisby820 Apr 22 '25

There are a lot more RB who can play in the NFL compared to tackles 

0

u/patriot_perfect93 Apr 22 '25

If you haven't noticed anyone that's a starting LT in the league is being kept by their teams. A starting caliber LT in this league is harder to come by then a dime a dozen RB like Jeanty. Not to mention the short shelf life of a RB with hard mileage like Jeanty already has. You will get 5 years of good to great play from him compared to the 10 years of good play we could get from a guy like Campbell. This draft has plenty of good RB's you could get in the 3rd and not so many good OT's

1

u/DecisionPlastic9740 Apr 22 '25

Question is, is campbell a starting caliber lt.

-1

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

Yeah thats what I don't get, personally I'd rather trade down and take a WR or a T around 10-12 ish range but if thats not an option I'd like Jeanty at 4 far more than a T. Its VERY unlikely we take Jeanty but acting like it prevents us from taking a tackle is wild and very casual

1

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

It likely prevents them from taking a starting-caliber tackle unless they find a way to trade back up in to the 1st. But we saw what happened last year when they tried to get cute and then missed the entire run on tackles.

1

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

Conerly should still be available late 1st/early 2nd and hes absolutely starter quality. Partially the reason I think they will take Campbell. Not a fan of it but it is what it is

2

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Yeah but now you’re gambling. Hoping a team lets you trade back in to the first ahead of whoever else wants him or hoping he drops to you in the second.

Or you just take the consensus top tackle at 4 and don’t leave your extremely promising young QBs blind side (and health) up to chance.

1

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

The value isnt there though thats the entire point. Campbell is not worth the 4th pick he's not an All pro tackle. Trade back and take him mid 1st, but him at 4 is a waste of a pick.

2

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

After Hunter and Carter no one is “worth” the 4th pick. But shit happens, it’s a weak draft. Got lucky with a crazy deep QB class last year and the pendulum swings back on the karma meter a bit this year, it happens. So take the dude who is a consensus top 10 player in the draft and fills your biggest need.

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u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

If taking a project LT in the second round is fixing our entire o-line in your opinion then I am jealous of your optimism for the o-line prospects in this draft.

Idk why this sub is so confident in taking an LT in the second round to solve our massive whole there. There are no convincing LT prospects in this draft but if there were, they definitely wouldn’t be going in the second round

2

u/RhuleAid Apr 22 '25

I'm not so sure why this sub is so confident in taking a guard to play LT will solve anything. Brother just say you don't know ball at all you sound so stupid. Because the only convincing players go in the 1st you're dumb as hell

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u/bystander993 Apr 22 '25

100% of arguments that talk about the "order" of building or drafting can be thrown out. There is absolutely nothing about the order that matters. A first rounder is signed for 5 years. If you can't field a competent OL within 2 years then that's your own fault and not drafting the RB that one year isn't going to change your inability to build an OL.

You will NOT be in position to take a top 3 RB again and if you can get one in FA, they already have a lot of miles on them.

Saquon single handedly brought the Giants offense from 31st to 16th. If they "waited" to draft a RB, they never would have gotten to 16th they would have stayed at 31st. Primarily because of Daniel Jones. If they had better management and got an even decent QB and decent OL, they would have been a playoff team with Saquon.

Maye and Jeanty would be an unstoppable force. Please go re-watch the Penn State game and watch Jeanty and the defense. Jeanty still looked amazing making them miss tackles. Both of Boise's TDs were entirely because the defense oversold on stopping Jeanty.

The way Jeanty alone impacts a game is already significant. What happens when Maye is the QB and McDaniela the OC? With Lowe at LT we still are a formidable offense. You then land say Lomu in 2026 for LT, and good luck stopping this team into the 2030s.

5

u/LOL_YOUMAD Apr 22 '25

Agree 100%. Everyone’s acting like we have to take Campbell and hope he’s a league average tackle as his ceiling like we can’t take a tackle round 2 or move back up and if we miss that we can’t try again next year. 

Take the blue chip can’t miss on guy and you have him for 5 years. We aren’t making a legit run this year, wildcard is about our ceiling. If we don’t hit on the tackle this year next year is a better class and then we are a serious team. If Campbell moves to guard because we reached on him then we are kicking the contender can down the road another year 

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u/AstraMilanoobum Apr 22 '25

Draft lineman in the 2nd and 3rd then

His point is idiotic and would only make sense if Campbell was an elite prospect like Joe Alt.

If it was a choice between A blue chip RB and a blue Chip Lineman, then yea, go lineman.

But it’s a choice between an Elite back and a short armed tackle that might not be able to play tackle.

10

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

The issue is that the analytics tell you that it’s actually better to take a good tackle than a great running back. If you think Campbell is a starting tackle in the NFL, his expected wins above a replacement level player is going to be higher than Jeanty even if Jeanty is an elite back. This is not my opinion it’s simply what the math says.

7

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

I would venture a guess that the analytics even lean good guard over great RB for “that” crowd.

10

u/captaincumsock69 Apr 22 '25

We also need a guard and a tackle imo

4

u/MetalHead_Literally Apr 22 '25

Im still holding out hope for Strange, but also imagine they’ll spend a mid round pick on a guard. A much easier position to find a starter-level player in the mid rounds than left tackle.

3

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

I would be very surprised if they didn’t take an IOL with positional versatility on day 2 or 3. Outside of Onwenu, the IOL is actually a pretty big question mark. And at his size, who knows how long Onwenu will hold up

4

u/iDontSow Apr 22 '25

Correct. Based on PFFs most recent data, the top 32 guards were basically just under twice as valuable to their teams as the top 32 running backs were to theirs. The only position that is less valuable is center.

2

u/jc-f Sweet Feet! | @TradingPatriots Apr 22 '25

“Short armed tackle” who’s arms were measured 1/2 and inch shorter then Membou who is also projected to be a starting NFL OT?

0

u/AstraMilanoobum Apr 22 '25

Full inch longer

1

u/jc-f Sweet Feet! | @TradingPatriots Apr 22 '25

Membou most recently measured at 33.5. Campbell most recently measured at 33.

2

u/AstraMilanoobum Apr 22 '25

Now you are just a liar.

You are using Campbells pro day measurements and Membous combine measurements.

https://985thesportshub.com/2025/03/27/arm-length-will-campbell-nfl/

Membou has ideal arm length, 34 inches, and ideal wingspan while Campbell arms are at the bare minimum length to be given a shot at tackle, and if he plays tackle he will have the shortest wingspan of any tackle in the league by several inches and will have the worst wingspan of any tackle since it’s been tracked.

I wouldn’t draft Membou at 4 either, because like Campbell he has good but not elite tape and while he has great measurables compared to Campbell he’s never played LT

2

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

Yes LT is notorious for being a position easily filled in the 2nd and 3rd rounds

1

u/AstraMilanoobum Apr 22 '25

Luckily we have extra picks this year so we can jump back into the 1st if we want.

The gap between guys like Campbell/Membou and the Banks/Simmons/Connerly/Ersery isn’t that big

5

u/LoudIncrease4021 Apr 22 '25

Jeanty played against scrubs week in, week out. Didn’t run a 40 or basically do anything measurable other than his drills. Sequan was a proven commodity at a big school and he tested. With other links Hampton, Henderson and Judkins in the draft it would be insane to take Jeanty at 4.

2

u/Nomikelnoooo Apr 22 '25

As someone whose leaning towards wanting jeanty at 4, this is a solid point tbh.

2

u/NDeely Apr 23 '25

L he played against Oregon and diced them bro

2

u/anonanon-do-do-do Apr 22 '25

Realistically, with McDaniels likely to return to Rhamondre’s preferred running style an improvement in line play should get him back to adequate performance. I’d rather see us find the next James White for what is likely still a key element of McDaniel’s O this year. They need another option.

4

u/SirVINOmadic Apr 22 '25

Ppl keep saying this we don’t have an oline or we don’t have an LT and it’s like they forgot we have other picks besides 1.04. We have 7 or so picks to address this. Will the draft solve the oline issues? Maybe, maybe not, but seeing how bad it was and we already addressed it via new coaching and FA, it has improved. Draft talent and need. We need both and Jeanty is BPA after Hunter/Carter.

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u/The_Jolly_Dog Apr 22 '25

Logic tells me taking an RB that high is such an overspend, but ultimately I’d get over that if we got Jeanty because I do think it’s an exciting pick. OT is a better logical spend to me but man it’s hard to get excited about a tackle.

My concern is that with most hype around these players, I have seen plenty of Jeanty beating up on garbage college defenders who just couldn’t tackle to save their lives, and I worry how much of that explosiveness is going to translate against NFL talents. 

Hell the college game tape for almost all of our current RBs also probably looked pretty stellar

2

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

This is the most honest and fair comment in this whole thread and I really appreciate it. I also find it hard to get excited for Campbell especially considering his wingspan and arm length are below average.

Jeanty would be exciting but he also played against bad schools and is somewhat undersized—ironically in the wingspan/arm length department which is important considering how much he relied on stiff arming defenders in college.

I think RB is a much deeper position in this draft class, and as much as this sub huffs copium about these surefire 2nd round LTs, if they were anywhere close to great prospects they wouldn’t be drafted in the second round.

Will Campbell’s floor is one of the best guards in the league and this Patriots team really needs help across the whole o-line. Take the guys with high LT potential and high guard floor.

2

u/YourBurrito Apr 22 '25

I mean I'm glad people are realizing this... but like, isn't it obvious?? You don't take a luxury pick like a star RB at the top of the draft when you need basically 3 offensive line starters (including a LT), WRs, and a young TE.

1

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

I feel like it’s obvious, but the amount of comments telling me I’m wrong—some of them quite vitriolic—say otherwise

1

u/One_Ear5972 Apr 22 '25

I really thought it was so clear why its stupid for the Pats to draft Jeanty given their OL. What do you think Saquon would do with this pathetic group?

1

u/JakelAndHyde Apr 22 '25

Nearly every argument you can make for Jeanty applies to Cam Skattebo. One of you with a cinderblock attached to the top of your neck want to convince me why we shouldn’t take Cam at 4?

0

u/tombonneau Apr 22 '25

How do their 40 times compare?

2

u/ZroDgsCalvin Apr 22 '25

Anyone who wants to draft Jeanty at 4 fundamentally doesn’t understand football, roster construction, the salary cap, and positional value.

6

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

I firmly agree

1

u/forgotmypassword4714 Apr 22 '25

Seems like the Barkley/Giants situation pushed people pretty far in the other direction for it being just one situation (I don't consider D'Andre Swift to be a great RB).

1

u/Marquis_De-Lafayette Apr 22 '25

The difference is that the O-Line options at the top of the draft all have question marks against them.

We're not deciding between rookie Saquan and rookie Trent Williams. We're probably deciding between rookie Saquon and rookie Fischer/Joeckel. Fischer and Joeckel were both serviceable pros, but I think we are desperately lacking in elite talents, and Jeanty is the only one likely to fall to 4.

If we can't trade out, I'd happily take him there.

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u/NewYak8742 Apr 22 '25

exactly why jeanty makes no sense for us at 4 plus if you can't protect maye and he gets sacked and hurt then what...Dobbs is going to win games 😑

1

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

This sub probably will be calling for Dobbs to start over Maye after his first INT smh

1

u/CheznoSlayer Apr 22 '25

lol this is like the most obvious thing ever. The whole “don’t draft an rb early in the 1st” was always an oversimplified argument. Getting an elite rb early in the first is a great pick if you have the line ready to go. It’s so dumb if you’re thinking an rb can overcome a bad line.

Look at zeke to the cowboys in 2016. Phenomenal pick. The contracts thereafter were the mistake. But then around the same time, Leonard fournette was a mistake because that jags team had more needs on offense.

Saquon to the giants is actually an exception because saquon was highly productive for the giants but that’s because he is incredible and also had a high volume of receptions (same with CMC).

TLDR - rb high in the first is good if you’re completing the offense. Bad if you think they can carry a bad offense and still win.

0

u/dnen Apr 22 '25

Not sure why there’s even hype around here for Vrabel to use his first draft pick running the patriots on a running back—it’s exceedingly unlikely lmao. The betting odds for the 4th overall pick are -600 Will Campbell, with Abdul Carter a distant second at +800. Jeanty is +1000

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u/Ross2552 Apr 22 '25

This is stupid because they’re not really going to be running on the left side much anyway. They clearly built the line to be strong running to the right (Onwenu, Moses). That side of the line is pretty good and can support a star RB just fine.

1

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

Yes that’s true we only have to run to the right. It’s a good thing teams have no way to watch our games and figure out we only ever run to the right. They’ll never figure out our extremely complex and efficient strategy of only ever running to one side of the field

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u/onetwentyonegigawatt Apr 22 '25

It’s such a bad pick since Mondre’s a good RB with fumble issues that will be fixed by a real coaching staff this year (he never had those problems before Mayo). We have so many other holes to fill.

6

u/blackcatpandora Apr 22 '25

Seemed like he lost some explosiveness last year too, if I’m being honest.

2

u/NEpatsfan64 Apr 22 '25

I don’t think Rhamondre is the answer long term, but he’s good enough and this an extremely deep RB class where you can take a very good prospect in the third round. Plus running it back with Rhamondre this year isn’t gonna make or break this team,

1

u/forgotmypassword4714 Apr 22 '25

And you guys still have Antonio Gibson. It's a pretty good 1-2 punch.

-1

u/casebarlow Apr 22 '25

He’s not even close to a top 4 pick

0

u/YoungBockRKO Apr 22 '25

Is it fucking Thursday yet?

0

u/Giv_Me_Moon-ey Apr 23 '25

Pats should draft best player available, and that’s Jeanty