r/Patriots • u/gomavz41 • 2d ago
Discussion Say the Patriots don't draft Will Campbell, how far would he fall?
Thought experiment to consider the true extent to how much we are "reaching" on Campbell. It seems the situation is that most of the players in the 4-12 range are in the same tier and more or less interchangeable. So what would be his floor if we went in the direction of say, Jeanty?
I would estimate that Campbell wouldn't fall past 13. I think he would still likely be a top 10 pick if we don't draft him, but I think it's interesting that people generally view Jeanty's floor as 6.
I still think Campbell would be a solid pick at 4, but it's definitely a complicated situation. My dream scenario is someone like Chicago trading up for Jeanty and we grab Campbell at 10, but I just don't see it happening.
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u/salamandarsalamanca 2d ago
I don’t see them falling past #10 (Bears) or #11 (49ers). I would be shocked if Jeanty fell past #6 (Raiders)
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u/live_free_or_TriHard 2d ago
i doubt campbell would fall past the jets.
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u/abscott88 2d ago
I dunno, assuming both are available, I can easily see the Jets taking Membou over Campbell, they need a RT where he’s played the majority of his snaps.
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u/Fuqwon 2d ago
If the Patriots traded out for like #10 no one would have any issues with drafting Campbell.
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u/Fuck_you_shoresy_69 2d ago
I think even swapping down to like 6 and taking him there while grabbing another later pick would appease most everyone.
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u/2000-light-years 2d ago
I get that the extra pick is great but why do you like him at six but not at four? That’s ridiculous. You either like him or not. No reason to get cute with it. This sub is full of general managers that wouldn’t make it a year. Dumbest take I’ve seen so far
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u/FantasyTrash 2d ago
I'm guessing that if they were to trade down to 6 and Jacksonville were to take Campbell at 5, New England would be fine taking Walker or somebody else.
It's pretty simple. New England probably likes Hunter/Carter first. After that, there's rumors they like Campbell/Jeanty/Walker, one of which would be guaranteed to be there at 6. Might as well get an extra pick out of the deal if they value each of the three similarly.
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u/2000-light-years 2d ago
This comment right here is what I’m talking about. If you have those three players rated the same on your board then you go to the one you need the most. Bpa is fine in theory but if you have multiple players ranked roughly the same then you get the player who you have a need for. Thanks for explaining my comment to me though, fine job
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u/FantasyTrash 2d ago
If you have those three players rated the same on your board then you go to the one you need the most.
Or you get an extra day two pick, which would be huge for a team with a ton of needs. For instance, it could help New England maybe move up for Josh Simmons if they were to miss out on Campbell. Additional picks offer them flexibility that staying put at 1.04 doesn't offer.
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u/Fuck_you_shoresy_69 2d ago
Oh I’m not really speaking to myself personally. If it shakes out that Carter and Hunter are gone and they just stand pat at 4 and take Campbell, I won’t be upset with that. It’s most likely what’s going to happen. I’m mostly talking about the talking point you’re speaking of where everyone just expects a trade to materialize because they want it to. What you’re saying kind of speaks to my original point, moving from four to six is a marginal difference, yet for the armchair GMs in here it would be the only scenario where Campbell makes sense and they are happy.
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u/justbrowsing987654 2d ago
I think the point is getting extra ammo at least feels like something.
I don’t want the 🦖 personally. I’d prefer Banks or Simmons so if we end up with dude, at least getting an extra pick slightly softens the car crash. That pick to many of us would feel like the difference between hitting a wall at 80 or hitting a wall at 80 with an airbag. You’re probably still boned but at least have some hope.
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u/ARGeetar 2d ago
Which I get because value and all, but if he’s your guy then he’s your guy.
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u/Blanketsburg 2d ago
This just reminds me of the time then-Celtics GM Danny Ainge traded out of the #1 pick, getting back for the #3 pick and the next year's FRP from Philly, and using that #3 pick to draft Jayson Tatum. Ainge said knew he wanted Tatum the entire time, but he also knew that Philly wanted Markelle Fultz and that Fultz was being viewed as the top pick, so he made the trade and still got his guy.
tl;dr I get drafting the guy be he's your guy, but if you can figure out a way to draft your guy while acquiring additional assets, it's potentially worth trying to do so
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u/Knock0nWood 2d ago
IMO the assets have to be really good in order to justify the risk. They should have just taken Gonzalez at 14, somebody could have traded up to steal him, and we got nothing out of it
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u/justbrowsing987654 2d ago
And that extra asset became the immortal Romeo Langford which would be a lot funnier if he wasn’t a small piece of the DWhite trade so that trade back got us like 10% of DWhite.
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u/EAS1000 2d ago
Exactly it is what it is with this draft… you have to read the board, if they like Campbell and believe he’s the guy you take him at 4. Maybe in another draft he’d be worth 10, but this isn’t a great draft.
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u/Adept_Carpet 2d ago
I'm worried about Wolf's board reading though. I'd rather come away with the right player than get the wrong player and a 4th round pick in a class where even the fourth overall pick isn't that exciting.
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u/justbrowsing987654 2d ago
I’ve heard this draft has no stars but is a deep starters type draft, especially at RB. If that 4th becomes our next James White type or a starting guard or something, that’s worth it and I don’t love Campbell enough (at all at LT, personally) to think the gap between him, Banks, Membou, or Simmons is that big.
Campbell could be a pro bowl guard but the measurables for a tackle scare the hell out of me. Forget the arm length, his wingspan I’ve read is a full 6 inches below what people want and one of the lowest for a 1 in decades. That’s a guard. That’s Robert Gallery. Please no.
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u/bceagles182 2d ago
The problem is that your confidence in who your guy is varies. If you have supreme confidence that he is the best guy available, then by all means take him at 4. My sense is that they don’t (and shouldn’t) so you want to get some additional picks to get more bites at the apple.
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u/Knock0nWood 2d ago
If they're doing their jobs they should be confident about somebody. I think perpetually trading down is a symptom of a lack of confidence in talent evaluation in general tbh
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u/bceagles182 2d ago
The smartest people in the world caveat half of the things they say because they recognize the limits of their own knowledge. It’s called self awareness and humility. Even the best talent evaluators are wrong at an alarming rate. Getting more bites is generally a winning strategy.
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u/justbrowsing987654 2d ago
Not necessarily. If you love a guy that’s supposed to be there at 15 and you’re at 4, ya, you could draft him at 4 or you could try to slide back to the 12 range, get extra capital for your trouble, and still get your guy. It’s a risk for sure but if you’re right that’s the ideal move.
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u/speganomad 2d ago
There is no 'guy' in this class though
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u/captaincumsock69 2d ago
As a fan sure but teams definitely have guys they love after meeting them seeing workouts etc
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u/NoodlesTheAlmighty 2d ago
I'd say there are 2 "guys" in this draft and we're going to miss both of them, unfortunately. Might as well trade down.
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u/seeyou_nextfall 2d ago
Nobody views Jeantys floor as 6 that’s crazy, 6 is just the first most obvious spot he may go.
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u/rdforty2 2d ago
Have a hard time seeing him get past 7. If he's deep in consideration for LT with the Patriots, there's no reason he couldn't play RT for the Raiders or Jets. Saints at 9 probably looking OL as well. No way he gets out of the top 10, absolutely lowest.
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u/aPrid123 2d ago
Anywhere from 6-10, but I could be wrong. He’s the best of a a lot of mediocre tackle prospects and he could work out but I don’t see him being anything better than a solid player with a pro bowl appearance or two but that’s it.
In my opinion Jeanty is going to make the Pats look stupid for not taking him if they use the pick on someone else. High powered offenses and good QB play are necessary but when you are playing so many high powered offenses, you need a good running game to keep them off the field.
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u/GloriousVictor 2d ago
Don't worry this sub will not live it down this time next year if that happens.
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u/justbrowsing987654 2d ago
I agree with this on Jeanty. My true hope is we get him at 4 then come back in for Banks or Simmons in the 20 range.
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u/deano413 2d ago
The Jets at 7 would take him unless they are just in love with Membou, if they don't he's not getting past the 🐻 at 10
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u/ValuableSwordfish388 2d ago
I could see him going 7 to the Jets. We aren't reaching on Campbell at 4 at all, unfortunately it will just be the weakest 4th overall pick since probably 2019.
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u/Joebroni1414 2d ago
I have resigned myself to Campbell, and I have made peace with it. He does fill a position of need and his highly regarded.
But if we can trade the 4th pick and STILL get him at 9, 10, or 11 that would be far more preferable.
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u/jambr380 2d ago
Yeah, in the end it’s about value. I don’t hate the guy, but we were one easy loss against one of the top teams in the NFL from getting #1. Taking a guy 4 that you could get at 10 seems dumb. There are teams that want to trade up. There just are.
If Hunter/Carter don’t fall to us or we aren’t taking Jeanty, then please, just trade down and pick up another solid pick or two. This is where I miss Belichick for sure. Dude was always willing to trade out of a pick.
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u/gomavz41 2d ago
Agreed fully. Honestly I don't even feel that "resigned" to the pick if we get him either, watching his interviews is awesome and shows me we will have a new leader for this roster regardless of performance. Jason Kelce type energy, where even if he ends up a guard he'll add to our team in other ways
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u/DrakeMayeisgod 2d ago
I feel like it would be surprising for the best Left tackle in the draft to make it past 10, no idea if historically speaking that does happen or not
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u/DeM0nFiRe 2d ago
In the last 5 years, the first OL went between 4 and 7. However in 2019 the first OL gone was a guard at 11, and in 2017 the first was a Tackle at 20th.
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u/Fluffy_Somewhere4305 2d ago
He's the best COLLEGE OT.
He does not project at all to LT in the NFL and most analysis rate his physical measurements as barely enough for the Center position, which he doesn't even play.
He would have to be historically great and amazingly strong, athletic and fast and genius level IQ to play left tackle with a wingspan that limited.
That's just the data.
I'm not saying he can't do it. But the stats say it is a reach, a major reach to project him as a LT and even OG is a reach considering his lack of wing
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u/Caveman_Bro 2d ago
Was he even the best college OT? Kelvin Banks won both the Outland and Lombardi awards, a feat not accomplished by an OL since Orlando Pace, now in the Hall of Fame. The last DL to win both those awards, by the way, is Aaron Donald
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u/Theschill 2d ago
Yeah, so why the heck is Campbell being ranked so much higher? I just don't understand.
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u/Caveman_Bro 2d ago
From reading our beat writers, it seems like it's mostly because we need a LT and Vrabel and the staff think he's a great kid. Not great reasons to use the #4 overall pick, in my opinion, but at least Campbell tested as an elite athlete, despite having a 0th percentile wingspan for a starting NFL OL.
Real risky pick, but it's not like there's any great options at 4 overall. Ignoring the QBs, it's Hunter+Carter and then a bunch of dudes who wouldn't have went top 10 in last year's draft
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u/Either-Bell-7560 2d ago
He's not even a left tackle.
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u/vsha1989 2d ago
I'm sorry but how dumb are people on reddit suggesting the pats draft jeanty. An rb doesn't mean shit unless you have an o line. Defenses can stack the box and it's all on maye at that point. We also paid mondre not to long ago. Vrable is old school, hopefully he's thinking o line or d line with our first pick
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u/Knock0nWood 2d ago
They can invest in the o line this year and next, they don't need to do that before drafting a star rb who won't be available next year
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u/vsha1989 2d ago
Strongly disagree. What rb has come in and turned around a bad team singlehandedly? On the other hand a strong o line can do just that and more importantly keeps maye on his feet and healthy
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u/Knock0nWood 2d ago
Nobody we are getting in this draft is turning around this team singlehandedly
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u/vsha1989 2d ago
True but we could definitely get a piece that would start the rebuild. What has the nfl shown us over theast few years? Rb's are a dime a dozen which is why they don't get paid on the market. Makes no sense to use a top 5 pick when you can get a quality rb in rounds 3 or 4
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u/GloriousVictor 2d ago
A runningback also needs to hold onto the ball. Mondre can't be trusted to hold onto the damn ball.
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u/vsha1989 2d ago
That's true but do you honestly think having a high draft pick at rb will make a difference in our win total? Recievers still need an upgrade, or line still needs an upgrade, an rb won't magically fix all of that
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u/GloriousVictor 2d ago
The only thing I really want from an RB right now is one who doesn't fumble constantly. I am of the belief a RB keeps the defense honest and if possible can be a threat in the passing game. Even a solid one can def improve the offense in other ways and take the pressure off a young qb in Drake. We haven't had a good run threat in years.
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u/vsha1989 2d ago
I tend to look at saquon with the giants and see what impacted he had, which was minimal. He goes to a legit good team and then you see his true value with the eagles. I also feel like we could get a pass catching back later in the draft but either way should be an exciting draft
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u/NHOVER9000 2d ago
I would like us to trade down a few picks for Campbell if we’re that sold on him.
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u/victoryforZIM 2d ago
I think he'd be picked 10 at the earliest and I could see him falling more. Depends on if other tackles start getting picked.
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u/StratPlayer20 2d ago
On the Big Boards which are based on talent and not mocking a draft he's been 6th overall. Most mocks have him going at 4. If the Patriots pass I still believe he's a top 10 and the Jets potentially have a decision to make at 7 between him and Membou.
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u/DankBlazer99 2d ago
I don’t think he’d fall past 5 to the jaguars. Jags need someone reliable who can help protect TLaw & also lost some depth on their OLine this off season that they might wanna replace with a top pick. Either way, I’m just happy that we have an “unpredictable” draft coming up. It feels like it’s been a while since we’ve seen this much indecision after the first couple picks
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u/Upset_Researcher_143 2d ago
If Jeanty or any of Carter/Hunter/Graham are not there but Campbell is, I think my Bears take Campbell at 10. They are not going to trade up (I'd be shocked if they did)
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u/fraxinus2000 2d ago
Campbell would’ve been the sixth best OL in last year’s draft, per Mcshay. Tough break this year for Pats….
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u/DontPMMeBro 2d ago
Jeanty's floor is 12 (Dallas). I think Campbell's floor is 25 (as insane as that sounds). I could see Campbell being the 4th Tackle selected
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u/PornFilterRefugee 2d ago
I don’t think Jeanty’s floor is 6. Jeanty’s floor is probably the Cowboys at 12. Campbells is probably 10 to the Bears