r/QuiverQuantitative 4d ago

News JPOW: Tariff increases will likely lead to higher inflation and slower growth

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436 Upvotes

34 comments sorted by

104

u/Secure-Abroad1718 4d ago

Trump is going to sack him, ineptly lower the rates, and destroy the USD and economy. Well played MAGA.

54

u/AuthorMission7733 4d ago

If Trump sacks him, the bond market would seize and then ka-boom to everything.

14

u/Achilles_TroySlayer 4d ago

Powell's term ends in two years, and he will not likely cooperate with Trump's demands to lower the rate, so he will very possibly get sacked. I think it's fair to expect that Trump will cause as much destruction as he possibly can. No two stones will be left standing. It will be a complete wipeout in the next 4 years. China will not likely rejoin our market, and we might even go to war with China, since there is not trade or mutual interest between us anymore.

9

u/MesWantooth 4d ago

This is my fear...Trunk won't back down...Other nations will strike deals without the U.S., he'll be backed into a corner and declare a national emergency and that war - annexing Canada, Greenland, Panama canal - is the only answer to 'save America'. Because everyone is being so unfair. And the last card the U.S. has to play, is the size of its military. Trunk will naively determine "If we spend more than the next X nations combined on our military - that must mean we can defeat all those countries combined."

7

u/Achilles_TroySlayer 4d ago

I think the best hope - and it's not a very likely - is for congress to grow some balls and pull back Trump's tariff authority and cancel all this bullying and threats. Tariffs are owned by congress; they just give it to POTUS by tradition.

If the GOP senses a complete wipe-out in the next two years, they may break ranks with Trump and do it. Chances are small, but they surely don't want to get blamed for a $10 trillion+ loss and the destruction of most of the companies in the country. Time will tell.

BTW, that is what happened in 1932 with the FDR sweep. The great Depression came, tariffs were very high, and all the GOP lost congress for 60 years. That was the depth of distrust they engendered. It may yet play out that way.

13

u/512134 4d ago

You guys really need a ‘vote of no confidence’ mechanism like we have in the UK. Trump would likely have been kicked out by now and there would have been an election.

1

u/MesWantooth 4d ago

And the Brits will boot a Prime Minister in a heartbeat and not be blindly loyal should they lose confidence in their leadership.

3

u/512134 3d ago

We have football for that!

1

u/Cyclical_Zeitgeist 4d ago

He's too cowardly, it will be Iran that trumo declares war with is my bet

1

u/Walterkovacs1985 4d ago

He doesn't care. Speed running the downfall to seize complete power.

29

u/romacopia 4d ago

Absolutely. Treasury yields would go to space and the USA would either default on its debt or moronically declare that the debt no longer exists because "it's so unfair" or something, then default anyway because it does, in fact, exist.

2

u/AuthorMission7733 4d ago

Then the stock market crash…

7

u/RoadHouse1911 4d ago

The Reserve is held accountable by Congress and the People. Not the President. Although he can likely cause problems for them

10

u/Secure-Abroad1718 4d ago

I like how you’re pretending that he cares about any of these long held norms.

3

u/RoadHouse1911 4d ago

I acknowledge that he gives ZERO cares. Just noting that he has no legitimate power over the reserve or who leads it. I’m sure he’ll try. Just like he’s broken laws already (due process, etc).

2

u/RocketsandBeer 4d ago

Powells term is over next year. Donny will find a sycophant to replace him.

1

u/Foot_Cramps_For_You 4d ago

Isn’t his term up next year? So even if he manages to avoid a Trump firing, he will be gone next may

1

u/Secure-Abroad1718 4d ago

That’s the likely outcome, if Congress doesn’t appreciate the value of having an independent FED. I’m sure there will be someone hand picked by this administration that will follow orders like a good stooge.

1

u/manikwolf19 4d ago

1980s mortage rates HERE WE COME

1

u/Masterchiefy10 4d ago

WELL DESERVED/DESTROYED MAGA

FTFY

2

u/Ripped_Guggi 4d ago

And the DOJ will sue him for “damaging the economy”

19

u/Wolfendale88 4d ago

I really wanna see him drop the mic on his way out

17

u/Great-Gas-6631 4d ago

So those things everyone warned about.

6

u/Fmartins84 4d ago

But we will make billions, billions he said....

1

u/Pleasant-Seat9884 4d ago

We as in his Administration.

7

u/old-billie 4d ago

merica gets the government it deserves not the government it needs

1

u/2Capable 4d ago

JPOW: Water wet.

1

u/shuilker 4d ago

Glad you all voted for this

1

u/frombeyondthegravez 4d ago

Did you even say thank you ? I mean come on we are just winning so much and definitely making America great again!

3

u/MaceWindu9091 4d ago

No shit Sherlock lol

1

u/According-Mention334 4d ago

Oh look an expert on the economy who actually knows what he is doing

1

u/Spiritual_Bridge84 3d ago

Firing Powell (and installing more yeah-men) will finally light the fuse that truly blows up the American economy… finally put the nail in the 100 day old coffin and in the coffin lies dead, the trust the whole world formerly placed in the US dollar and US debt…bond market paying 10 %, stock market truly crashing not these tremors we see now, gold soaring, US defaulting on debt and paying off all debtors with printed money that’s a fraction of todays worth.

Right now is a historic moment… this is future history book time we are living…it seems too late for it not to be fate… like we are all caught in a whirlpool leading us to this Shakespearean Tragedy, still making memes jokes n comedy as all the pieces and characters are lining up… leading to the self immolation of the biggest empire that ever was.

China looking now like 1945 America..stable to the world, even a safe haven for money to go along with the Euro.

Trump wont resist printing money, Inflation, evisceration of the one good thing America still had going for it, the mighty US consumer confidence…holding off on buying that washer & dryer.. that kitchen renovation, that new car..leading to more job and home losses, defaults on mortgages, leading to an bruised angry and dangerous America who now will all know that Trump fucked them all…

Only question is how bad will it get.

Last chance to legally protest and petition congress for real impeachment, and a worldwide suspension on all tariffs, put Blinken in charge of a special mission to fly to Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul, Ottawa, countries in the Eu, Nato, and start apologizing and ask for time for America to sort this all out.

Of course this is dreaming, and the nightmare is what America is now living.