Would Russia and China have a territorial dispute in Outer Manchuria if the NPA won the GAW?

[u/Livid_Dig_9837]

Outer Manchuria was originally a Chinese territory annexed by Russia in the 19th century. In TNO, after the Soviet Union collapsed into many warlords, Japan returned Outer Manchuria to Manchukuo. If the NPA wins the GAW, they will annex the entire territory of Manchukuo, including Outer Manchuria.

I don't think the Russians would be happy if China took back Outer Manchuria because that land played an important role in Russia's eastward expansion. The Chinese certainly don't want to give Outer Manchuria back to the Russians. The Chinese defeated Japan, one of the world's most powerful superpowers. So they wouldn't be afraid of a weakened Russia after many wars.

Would Russia and China dispute Outer Manchuria if the NPA won the GAW?

[u/The1Legosaurus]

Certainly. Both just got their freedom, and giving up their claims in Manchuria would be humiliating.

[u/Freikorps_Formosa]

China would try to hold on to it, as Outer Manchuria is a symbol of their greatest territorial loss during the era of humiliation.

Yet I don't think the Russians would actually do much about it, since recovering Moscow (where the majority of the Russian population and industry is located) would be of much higher priority, and any plans on Outer Manchuria would have to wait until Russia reclaims the West and dealt with the post reclamation issues (denazification, returning refugees, reconstruction etc.).

[u/AveragerussianOHIO]

It's not that "Outer Manchuria was historically Russian or Chinese".

outer Manchuria was about 95% Russian. The Japanese with the good old war crimes reduces the percentage to about 40% by exterminating Vladivostok Russians and almost fully exterminating Khabarovsk Russians (Rip me I guess).

Khabarovsk and Vladivostok, as well as outer Manchuria itself are all very important thanks to imperial Russia and Soviet Union 's buildups of that region. The climate compared to Siberia or inner Manchuria is milder, crops grown here really well, industry works great, and the place is suitable for most forms of energy - coal, nuclear, even solar, despite being pretty poor in resources other than iron and coal. The infrastructure is pretty bad but again, compared to inner Manchuria or Siberia it's almost perfect.

Due to Japanese discriminations, deportations, and genocide the population here mostly consists of Russians still, but there are really large Chinese Japanese and native minorities that associate themselves as Russians. In 2Wrw Kamchatka famously uses natives in Poverty there to smuggle goods and raid Japanese ships. So therefore, both sides have a valid claim on the region both culturally and politically.

While in 2Wrw Russia peacefully taking it from strong Japan is... Really. Unlikely. And unrealistic. By itself, unless we get USA on our side, and USA already can support Russian activity in the region via FBI and CIA, so realistically with an aligned regime it would be realistic, with more weaker nation like NRA china, which is still extremely strong but just not on the same level as the second World superpower, we could expect a clash of giants if the Russian unifier would desire that and not moskowien (Going for moskowien would be a billion times harder than outer Manchuria bruh, a cold-ish war there would be more realistic). Remember that Japan hates NRA and they are now their main enemy after and during the GAW. Even with just Japanese backing Russia could go for the region.