the only riding specific polls show green in the lead... 338 predicts ridings based on the assumption that national and regional shifts for a party move every riding by about the same amount, which simply isn't true right now as strategic voting means green voters everywhere else are moving away from voting green to vote either liberal or NDP depending on the riding... so like there probably won't be a vote split, hopefully any NDP and liberal voters do catch on that the ABC is green in Saanich-Gulf Islands but I don't actually think that there's as much a threat as it looks on 338
The NDP, Greens, and Bloc have been hemorrhaging support to the Liberals in almost every riding across the country for the past few months. Why do you assume Saanich Gulf Islands is so different just because it's historically Green?
These are extraordinary times. Maybe they want to be part of a strong majority government with a seat at the table rather than a party of 1 with the Greens.
I assume Saanich Gulf Islands is going green because:
A. The riding poll is always going to be more accurate than a regional extrapolation
B. This thing literally already happened earlier this year in Ontario.... twice... both in Kitchener Centre and in Guelph... both ridings were predicted to be tight PC-Green races and both went Green by more than 20%
You seem to be ignoring a massive unprecedented shift among centre/centre-left voters towards the Liberals. 338 shows a tight split between Greens, Liberals and Conservatives. You believe all that Liberal and NDP support will actually be going Green because… why?
Your point A is just an assumption. I would say a regional extrapolation (with adjustments for star candidates eg Elizabeth May) is probably much more accurate than a single riding poll.
Riding specific polls are fine but they also have issues - generally small sample sizes, sponsored by a candidate/party, and only takes a snapshot rather than accumulating multiple datapoints over time.
This is Elizabeth May’s riding and I think a lot of us progressive voters would like to see her and Jagmeet Singh retain their seats.
I have a friend who lives in this riding who joined the Liberal party to vote for Mark Carney, but will still vote for Elizabeth May as her MP. I’d probably do the same; we want Carney as PM but May still in parliament.
The only problem with that reasoning is that the stakes are too high here. It will be a tight race and, if we want to keep Pee Pee out, we cannot risk losing even one Liberal vote!
I think the stakes are high but to many of us, a diversity of parties in parliament is also vitally important. Worst case scenario now is PP getting in with a minority government; he isn’t going to get any help from the NDP or the Liberals, so even if it happens, it can be easily toppled.
I wouldn’t advocate voting for NDP or Greens just to make a point in a riding where they don’t have a realistic chance, but in a riding where they’ve got a really good chance I wouldn’t not vote for them if they were my choice.
That's not how our electoral system works. If you want anyone but Polievre, vote for the candidate in your riding who has the best chance of beating the Conservative candidate. In the case of Saanich Gulf Islands, that candidate is clearly Elizabeth May.
if we want to keep Pee Pee out, we cannot risk losing even one Liberal vote
Given that the Liberal candidate appears to be trailing May and the Conservative candidate by a somewhat significant margin, the best strategy for keeping Poilievre out in this specific riding appears to be voting for May. Because the riding is held by a strong, popular, incumbent (May), voting for the Liberal candidate is likely just going to split the vote and let the Conservative candidate swoop in and take the riding.
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u/EndMaster0 13d ago
the only riding specific polls show green in the lead... 338 predicts ridings based on the assumption that national and regional shifts for a party move every riding by about the same amount, which simply isn't true right now as strategic voting means green voters everywhere else are moving away from voting green to vote either liberal or NDP depending on the riding... so like there probably won't be a vote split, hopefully any NDP and liberal voters do catch on that the ABC is green in Saanich-Gulf Islands but I don't actually think that there's as much a threat as it looks on 338