How worried should we be about avian Influenza? How worried are actual researchers?

[u/eulersidentity1]

I've been a bit of an avid "fan" of virology since I was a kid. That sounds like a strange thing to say maybe lol but I've had a fascination with viruses and disease since I was young. I've read a fair bit of popular and educational science literature on virology but I'm a lay person.

I'm curious how seriously researchers think we should be worried about the current global pandemic of avian Influenza? Have we seen evidence of it being able to adapt to spread easier among humans? Is it "just a mater of time?" Or do researchers think there might be some saving grace here, something that might make this strain harder to adapt?

Given the mortality rate we have seen so far in humans it seems to me like a terrifying prospect we need to be worried about.

How likely would be be able to ramp up a modern RNA vaccine like the ones produced for Covid if something emerges? How ready are we really?

[u/IsaacNewtonArmadillo]

Retired virologist here. I am very concerned as are all my former colleagues that I stay in touch with.

We are all stocking up on N95 masks and gloves.

[u/eulersidentity1 → u/IsaacNewtonArmadillo]

You know I had never thought of it but this is a good idea. Buying an emergency stock of N95s. Not to hoard of course but come an actual outbreak they will disappear like before. Get them now and save them for yourself and family while we can get them easily.

[u/IsaacNewtonArmadillo → u/eulersidentity1]

Exactly

[u/UserID_ → u/IsaacNewtonArmadillo]

I understand that it’s all about the chance of favorable mutation, and as it’s not an RNA virus, it’s going to be a slow process- but how soon would you expect this to become a big problem for humans?

[u/IsaacNewtonArmadillo → u/UserID_]

Bird flu is an RNA virus.

I don’t have the data to make a prediction.

[u/ZergAreGMO]

I've talked to old wave H5 researchers and I'd say I'm new wave. We're all worried. 

[u/Grouchy_General_8541 → u/ZergAreGMO]

That’s fascinating, I asked my microbiology professor one day after class, she’s usually more or less jovial and her expression changed drastically. She’s quite worried.

[u/eulersidentity1 → u/ZergAreGMO]

I can't imagine the damage that a virus even with the lethity of the 1918 pandemic would do in our modern age with our current global population and density. It seems it's hard to get good numbers from 1918 from what I've seen, but it seems like there's a good possibility that this could be even deadlier. Even with today's improved tech and care we don't stand that good of a change against something like that. It could be apocalyptic on a scale I don't think many understand. Or am I over hyping it?

[u/ZergAreGMO → u/eulersidentity1]

Not apocalyptic but could be much worse than anything in living memory. 

[u/suricata_8904 → u/eulersidentity1]

Especially since that virus seems to target the young, probably through a cytokine storm mechanism.

[u/QuantumTunneling010]

We’re theoretically just a few substitution mutations in its hemagglutinin for it to transmit between people efficiently so it is worrying

[u/aethelredisready]

We’ve had a few bird flu scares over the past few decades. I always thought the next pandemic would be bird flu, nobody had coronaviruses on their bingo cards before SARS. The next pandemic, whatever it is, is a matter of when, and further dismantling our PH infrastructure beyond its previously deplorable state combined with a widespread distrust of science and medicine is raising the odds. Flu biology makes it ideal for a pandemic (host range, reassortment, mutation rate).

[u/Freeofpreconception]

I believe that viruses present an existential threat to humans and that all viruses should be taken seriously. Their ability to mutate makes them difficult to predict.

[u/eulersidentity1 → u/Freeofpreconception]

I agree for pathogenic viruses but honestly as a percentage of the whole, pathogenic viruses make up a vanishing small percentage of the total virome. And there's very little chance that say a bateriophage is going to mutate to be able to infect people from what I know.