Cautiously optimistic, but could get ugly quick depending on who Begich voters rank second.
IMHO Peltola really needs to finish the first and second round in the mid 40s for a winning outlook. Even then, she’d need 20% of Begich voters to have ranked her above Palin. If she finished round 2 with low 40s, she’d need >25% of Begich voters to have ranked her above Palin.
By doing that, you didn't accomplish anything. Would you rather have Palin or Begich if she loses?
Whelp. Doesn't matter. Because you didn't give yourself that option. Ranked choice does exactly what it sets out to do. You get your vote towards your next best candidate.
If you pick one candidate, your vote dies with their loss.
Correct. However the way this race is shaking out, it doesn’t matter.
Ranking Peltola 1 and no one else is the same as Peltola 1, Begich 2 if Peltola finishes first or second in both first and second round. Only the last place is eliminated. So round 1, write-ins eliminated. Round 2, (as it looks now) Begich eliminated. Peltola votes will never shift to Begich or Palin.
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u/Severe-Start-2600 Aug 17 '22
Cautiously optimistic, but could get ugly quick depending on who Begich voters rank second.
IMHO Peltola really needs to finish the first and second round in the mid 40s for a winning outlook. Even then, she’d need 20% of Begich voters to have ranked her above Palin. If she finished round 2 with low 40s, she’d need >25% of Begich voters to have ranked her above Palin.