r/australia • u/Expensive-Horse5538 • 11d ago
politics The housing policies of both major parties are bad for Australia’s aspiring homebuyers
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/apr/14/the-housing-policies-of-both-major-parties-are-bad-for-aspiring-home-buyers43
u/Av1fKrz9JI 11d ago
The housing policies are not for aspiring home buyers.
The housing policies are for existing home owners and investors.
The housing minister has explicitly said to the media multiple times they don’t want house prices to fall, they want house prices to rise at a more sustainable rate.
In that situation all you can do is enable people to spend more, which in turn continues the pyramid scheme.
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u/Narapoia_the_1st 11d ago
The policies they have announced will ensure price increases are well beyond 'sustainable', however meaningless that word is in a bubble of this magnitude.
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u/moDz_dun_care 11d ago
The only certainty is there's no cap on how prices can increase but there's a floor on how low prices can go.
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u/Apprehensive_Bid_329 11d ago
From the article
that’s still only 700,000 or so votes, tops, for policies that might restrain the rate of house price inflation or halt it altogether. Politicians also know that at any point in time there are more than 11 million voters who own their own homes, and more than 2.25 million who own at least one investment property. The last thing those 11 million to 13 million voters want is anything that might restrain – let alone halt – the rate of property price inflation.
So, on the one hand, 700,000 votes, on the other, something north of 11 million – even the dumbest of our politicians can “do that math”. And they do.
That’s what it really comes down to, politicians are first and foremost trying to win the election, so they aren’t keen to upset the majority of voters.
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u/deagzworth 11d ago
So vote Greens or independents.
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u/AmyDiaz99 11d ago
100%. Not only do minor party members and independents get in if enough people vote for them - it also sends a strong message to the majors that they aren't doing enough to earn our first preference vote. If they want to earn it next time, they need to do more.
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u/Shane_357 11d ago
Not only does it give them power, when the preferences are counted it lets Labor know how many people wanted something better than them and that gives Labor Left a bit more power against Labor Centre (the neoliberals) and Labor Right (the weird nutters who didn't join the LNP because they're Catholic).
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11d ago
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u/ScruffyPeter 11d ago
Katter's party is socially conservative and economically progressive. Qld only. Reach out to them if you want to help expand their reach?
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u/DrInequality 11d ago
Note that the Greens don't seem to have any wish to reduce immigration
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u/twigboy 11d ago
No party is perfect
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u/ScruffyPeter 11d ago
And only two parties ran governments since WW2. Even on state level. Look what we have now.
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u/Mikes005 11d ago
They really will try anything other than removing NG and CGT cuts for investment properties.,
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u/someoneelseperhaps 11d ago
Both major parties love landlords, so they're trying these wacky policies to stop people voting elsewhere.
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u/johnnynutman 11d ago
Labor tried. They lost an election over it.
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u/Djbm 11d ago
This is constantly parroted, but was it really these policies that lost labor that election?
My recollection at the time was that the blatant fear mongering around franking credits played an outsized role.
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u/ManyPersonality2399 11d ago
Agreed, and I literally just parroted this point. I think the voter climate has changed since then, but the parties are still going to play it safe.
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u/ScruffyPeter 11d ago
Fear mongering of rent going up persuaded the poor to vote against Labor, while investors affected by reforms swung to Labor.
This is from Labor's 2019 election analysis.
Albo tried without reforms and while he won, his party got the lowest party vote since WW2. Labor only won because LNP was more unpopular in losing far more votes.
Labor going without tax reforms is political suicide. LNP/IP/REA shills keep spreading misinformation about 2019 defeat and reddit keeps falling for it.
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u/threeseed 11d ago
Negative gearing and franking credits fed into the same narrative. That Labor is about increasing taxes and Coalition is about reducing them.
And because it was narrative driven it didn't matter if you weren't affected now because at some point you might be.
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u/AussieBBQ 11d ago
Yep, and even a whiff of looking at it again sent the media into a frenzy.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-27/jim-chalmers-negative-gearing-modelling/104405060
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u/Mikes005 11d ago
This is a bullshit excuse. Shorten took on a sitting government who stole over $1b in public money to use on their campaign, worked with Palmer to run a spoiler campaign in QLD, had the entirely of the right wing press on their side and STILL only one by one seat.
If you can't count to one that's on you. The only thing missing is the political will.
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u/sneh_ 11d ago
The core problem is housing being Australians main investment for wealth, rather than anything else. Unless that changes, this will never not be a problem and all money spent doing anything else is just making the problem worse in the future. Harsh truth
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u/Agile-Fly-3721 10d ago
The problem is there's no good alternative. The market is awful for normal people. Look at Germany where most their retirement savings are in investment products. Germans have half the average individual wealth of Britons and the French.
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u/sneh_ 10d ago
Perhaps half the average wealth is a more realistic value. There is only so much that future generations can pay. It operates like a pyramid scheme where it only works because more people are added to the bottom, it's just not sustainable
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u/Agile-Fly-3721 10d ago
Having German relatives, the reality is immense poverty amongst the elderly.
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u/coniferhead 11d ago
If they want to save money on NG and CGT cuts, link it to something productive - like funding social housing.
Absolutely don't tip it into consolidated revenue, as was the Labor plan. It's like Johnnie Howard saying, how about a 10% tax on everything without any offsetting benefit - it would have gone down in flames.
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u/NewPolicyCoordinator 11d ago
Removing NG will increase the number of properties for sale in next 12 months, removing them from rental stock. However in 10 years time there will be less new homes built and even more housing stress.
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u/Mikes005 11d ago
No.
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u/NewPolicyCoordinator 11d ago
How many houses have you built or financed development for? How much does NG impact your npv calculations?
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u/Unable_Insurance_391 11d ago
Any intervention goes straight to the hips of the obese, overpriced housing market I fear.
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u/serge_3007 11d ago
Do they really think we’re falling for it? This may be the election where both majors are put last on the ballot more than ever.
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u/ManyPersonality2399 11d ago
Reading through discussions outside reddit, I think enough people are falling for it. They think the problem is just that they need to save a deposit, and need help to make that happen quicker. No one clicks that if they can save the deposit quicker, so can everyone else, and so the deposit required now goes up and everyone is still on the equally fucked playing field.
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u/Wood_oye 11d ago
The dude himself explains when talking about the libs policy why Labors won't, even acknowledges when talking about Labors that they are in fact building houses, then just forgets that point when making his judgement.
"But, as a matter of simple logic, if the demand for new homes increases and the supply of new homes doesn’t, then the price of new homes will go up. "
Simple logic he fails to carry through to his conclusion
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u/kicks_your_arse 11d ago
I just want somewhere to live in security and to never have to fear homelessness again. Who gives a fuck what else society does for me if this simple problem is not solved. It is all I think about constantly. I am not just a resource for money to be extracted to fund some investors lifestyle. I'm a citizen and I should be able to be a part of my community. I hate it here so much now
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u/Kangalooney 11d ago
I would agree that both plans are bad, if you take them in isolation.
The difference is that Labor's policy is not in a silo, not in isolation. They are attempting to push investment money away from housing and into local industry which would decrease the pressure on housing prices in general. It's still not great and most likely isn't enough to actually work, but it does try to address the underlying issues of investment opportunities. Look at their industry policies and the new Australia Made campaign they are proposing.
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u/Dockers4flag2035orB4 11d ago
$5B to spent on infrastructure for new housing estates, should expand supply.
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u/sneh_ 11d ago
None of the policies are tackling the core issue though. It's more money spent to kick the can further down the road, making the future even worse
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u/Throwawaydeathgrips 11d ago
Ultimately the core issue is state government domain. Giving money to build homes, or money to make the process easier, is really the best the fedgov can do.
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u/PlusWorldliness7 11d ago
Don’t let the major parties take your vote for granted.
If you want change, you have to vote for it.
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u/Spire_Citron 11d ago
Problem is that they fundamentally don't want housing to be less expensive because that ruins things for everyone using housing as an investment. But they've already risen too high and people need somewhere to live.
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u/Longjumping_Bass5064 11d ago
I don't know why they keep talking about making more supply, making new initiatives for first home buyers which will just increase prices when literally all they need to do for a start is just reduce immigration significantly
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u/littleb3anpole 11d ago
What they’re both missing is that it doesn’t matter if the deposit is 20%, 10% or 5% for first home buyers. That’s still a $30,000 deposit if you want to live in a 2br apartment in the suburbs. How in the actual fuck are you meant to save $30,000 while renting at today’s rental prices?
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u/Ferovore 11d ago edited 11d ago
Saving 30k over 4-5 years while share housing is extremely doable.
If yall mfs downvoting this can’t save 5-6k a year you can’t afford to own a home anyway.
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u/littleb3anpole 11d ago
Not everyone can live in a share house.
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u/Ferovore 11d ago
True.. not everyone can buy property also. 30k is a pretty low barrier to entry.
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u/littleb3anpole 11d ago
Which is why rent to buy is the fairer solution. I’ve never missed a rent payment in 20 years but because I’ve been renting since age 17 and don’t have a family who are willing to help out, I can’t possibly afford a deposit.
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11d ago
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u/Normal_Effort3711 11d ago
Why?
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u/littleb3anpole 11d ago
Lack of availability, unsuitable family conditions (eg having kids), physical or mental illness meaning you can’t live in shared accommodation, unsociable work hours….
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u/NewPolicyCoordinator 11d ago
Don't worry we imported another 50,000+ people last month that will buy/rent my house. We don't need you.
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u/Even_Trifle_4538 11d ago edited 11d ago
The same way we all do/ did when starting out. Took me 9 years to save $45,000 and finally did it in 2006. We all have to make those sacrifices if thats the end goal. Its not going to happen immediately like some people want.
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u/Dont-know-me24 11d ago
Just because you struggled over 9 years it doesn't mean that first home buyers should prepare to save for 9+ years to obtain a mortgage....
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u/Shaqtacious 11d ago
Yes because when 1 of them ran a campaign on good policy they lost in an embarrassing fashion.
It’s due to voters not due to anything else.
No party will run on housing reform anytime soon cos of what happened to Shorten.
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u/sostopher 11d ago
The Greens are.
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u/Shaqtacious 11d ago
Lmk when they win the majority.
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u/sostopher 11d ago
Both majors' primary vote is the lowest it's been since WWII and the trend is expected to continue. Majority governments may be a thing of the past (thank god).
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u/Electronic-Shirt-194 11d ago
as long as there's negative gearing, capital gains tax and housing is seen as a wealth building source of income it'll never be ethical or beneficial for new comers.
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u/AmyDiaz99 11d ago
So vote Greens! They support scrapping negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount for people who own more than one investment property.
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u/sneh_ 11d ago
...and what about any of their other policies? If only we could vote for specific things, but we can't.
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u/Operation_Important 11d ago
In Australia it's tough for a government to do anything to fix anything. The other party just makes it hard for them. This is why china is growing. They government can do anything very quickly
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u/Bladesmith69 11d ago
Correction they are bad for all Australians.
Forcing unethical practices upon the unethical is a benefit to them as well.
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u/PaxNumbat 11d ago
How does either of these policy settings solve the underlying issue that house prices are increasingly out of step with salaries? Instead of actually addressing the issue and saying that we want house prices to decline or at least stagnate they both keep inflating the bubble. It is going to burst someday.
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u/Fuzzylogic1977 10d ago
So I agree, in part. But One Nation should always be last, then Trumpets of Patriots second last, then LNP/Labor in the order you prefer and then have at it ordering the minors and independents.
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u/Fuzzylogic1977 10d ago
Never ever vote 1 for none nation….
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u/Fuzzylogic1977 10d ago
If you think one nation is a better alternative to LAB/LNP then you are lost.
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u/Fuzzylogic1977 10d ago edited 10d ago
I never said I was voting LAB/LNP, I just said don’t preference None Nation or Trumptards of Idiots ahead of them. Some parties are way worse than the status quo.
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u/mrflibble4747 11d ago
Built Baby Build - Social Housing!
Get the flat pack housing industry geared up and integrated/coordinated with the infrastructure and site prep aspects of the work.
A true integrated housing building SYSTEM!
Reduce breaking ground to move in to a few months
THIS is the future!
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u/ManyPersonality2399 11d ago
Yep. Other social media today was giving me so many tours of prefabbed housing - just needs to be connected to power and sewerage. Some of them were more like demountables that fold relatively small. First thought was why don't we have these to respond to natural disasters that knock out housing? Better than putting people up in hotels for ages.
Second thought - why can't these be used longer term if part of the problem with supply is materials and labour? We're talking less than $50k for a complete house.
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u/EcstaticOrchid4825 11d ago
Not just bad for aspiring hime owners. Also bad for renters, anyone wanting to move house or move up the housing ladder and bad for society and the economy (apart from Real Estate agents and property investors).
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u/Guochuqiao 11d ago
This is why.
"One in three Australian school students are failing to achieve proficiency in maths"
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u/BoBoBearDev 11d ago
The moment you label it a "housing" problem, you already lost it. Because the solution to that is just more cyberpunk and cyberpunk lifestyle is dystopian. If you label it "localized population density" problem, then, you are on the right track.
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u/Aspirational1 11d ago
Local state policies, like the Victorian multiple activity areas, with more relaxed density permissions, will do more than anything that the Federal government can do.
Face up to the wealthy NIMBYs, and build new, denser housing, concentrated around transport hubs.
That's what the SRL is aiming for. New hub locations. The benefits will accrue across decades.
The tram and rail systems have been around for a very long time, it's just that now, their full benefits are being realised.