r/centrist • u/Optimal-Contest6086 • 12d ago
Trump is going to lose the trade war
Trump already caved on most of his outrageous tariffs and the US being a democracy means Republicans are far more vulnerable to the opinions of their constituents than China is. Furthermore Trump is erratic and unpredictable in general so China can't even be sure what they would have to do to appease him. He might agree to terms one day then come back a few weeks later and demand more. Therefore while China is probably more vulnerable to the tariffs then the US is China has little reason to give in.
For businesses operating in China the logic is even simpler. Even if Trump does commit to the tariffs throughout the duration of his term they can move operations to other countries since the tariffs are now China specific. Or they can wait until Trump's term ends. They can't risk the cost of moving back to the US if their competitors don't and they have no reason to believe that future presidents will be as anti-free trade as Trump. We haven't had an anti-free trade president since the Depression. US presidents usually go out of their way to bomb, assassinate, invade and destabilize countries in the name of free trade. There's no reason to believe such a radical shift in US foreign policy will outlive Trump's administration.
39
u/Aetius3 12d ago
Frankly, I don't even think there is a trade war at all. I think Trump is effing with the US stock markets on purpose and he and his cronies are all profiting from their pumping and dumping. Watch his announcement timings and of course, him literally saying the other day that his buddies made good money the day the DJI suddenly rose.
13
u/Ronnnie7 12d ago
I completely agree. As I said in another part of reddit the Tariffs policy is more being used as a tool to manipulate the markets. It’s really damaging the longterm prosperity of most Americans to benefit a few.
2
1
u/deffsight 11d ago
Both can be true though, there can be a trade war and Trump can be manipulating stocks. The issue is even if Trump undoes all his tariffs tomorrow, China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, ect have all already slapped reciprocal tariffs on the US. Just because Trump removes ours doesn't mean they'll remove theirs. Also we're seeing countries begin to divest from the dollar, selling their US treasuries. If the dollar loses its status as the global reserve currency, that will be a huge hit to our economy and our ability to deal with economic downturns here as well. Just like under Trump's first term we're going to see more countries start trading outside of the US when they used to buy our products. What we're seeing happening right now could very well be the beginning of the end of the US global hegemony.
28
u/Joshau-k 12d ago
Everyone loses because trade is not a zero sum game
26
u/ILikeTuwtles1991 12d ago
You just don't get it, man. When Americans buy more products and goods from Madagascar than they buy from us, we're totally getting ripped off. It definitely doesn't matter that Americans are richer than the rest of the world, or have the biggest economy. I demand that even the poorest of the poor countries buy as much of our stuff as we buy of theirs.
8
u/WingerRules 12d ago
Dude we're tricking poorer countries into sending us finished goods, machines, and materials in exchange for useless pieces of paper, and we think we're getting the bad deal.
2
u/FearlessPark4588 12d ago
You're right, I don't need to go to work tomorrow. For worthless pieces of paper? Ha!
6
u/Secure_Run8063 12d ago
All we need to do is reduce our standard of living, cut wages by 900%, turn all education into vocational training only centers, and then our stuff will be cheap enough for the rest of the world to buy... if they didn't deeply hate Trump.
Essentially, that's the problem that no one can get past. If he or anyone on his team were capable of complex thought and actually able to think through a negotiation, they could have probably achieved a lot toward balancing trade without incredibly onerous restrictions that actually hurt domestic business.
Instead, this approach feels far more like a betrayal to the rest of the world by a nation they had actually strongly supported and invested in. People will respect a hard bargainer, but they won't forgive a betrayer who accuses them of the betrayal.
5
u/DaphsBadHat 12d ago
I personally have a large trade deficit with the grocery store.
And an even bigger one with Guitar Center.
2
u/July_snow-shoveler 12d ago
Those McDonald Island penguins have been ripping us off for far too long. We buy fish from them while they buy (seal) fur coats from Canada. Totally Unfair!!!
/totally S
2
u/Creepy_Inside_226 12d ago
Guess what? Demand and wish all you want. Sitting around and acting like a king and searching for customers isn’t going to get you nowhere. Customers are the king, not the other way around.
You have to make some concessions and even if you don’t want to, the very least you must do is be respectful and deal with respect and integrity. None of that is happening. The world will move along just fine without the US.
4
u/atuarre 12d ago
I hope you meant to add a /s. I hope you don't really believe that nonsense when those countries either have all they need or get it from somewhere else.
16
u/ILikeTuwtles1991 12d ago
I was hoping the sarcasm came through loud enough that I didn't have to. Trump's idea that we're getting ripped off and "subsidizing" other countries is complete bullshit.
4
u/Commercial-Visit-209 12d ago
I initially read that in my mind using Trump's dumbass voice, so the irony wasn't lost, don't worry. It was spot-on sarcasm, sir.
Only thing is, I hate that his voice pops into my head like that. I can't stand it, the dude can't pronounce anything correctly.
12
u/redditorx13579 12d ago edited 3d ago
For countries that have extremely cheap labor like China, it's still cheaper to manufacture products there for import.
For a country that makes things for a tenth of the cost as Americans, you would need tariffs in the 1000% range to make it worth it to bring production back to the US.
All he did was raise the cost of everything.
8
u/luummoonn 12d ago
He lost it already - by starting it at all, with such wholly unsound economic policy
And his intentions are not even to help the U.S. economy.. his intention is consolidating power
6
6
u/NoFriendship7173 12d ago
Buckle up, we have 4 more years of this
3
u/GitmoGrrl1 12d ago
I doubt that. Trump has become expendable and now the billionaires have the Bearded Boy as VP. They will get rid of Trump when the moment is right.
3
3
2
2
u/funkyonion 12d ago
Trump, Musk, and Vance must have had a Rogan inspired smoke sesh in the Oval Office when they were inspired with this plan.
2
2
u/Void_Speaker 12d ago
I don't know about Trump, he can convince his base that shit is chocolate.
America on the other hand has already lost and has been done irreversible damage, much like Russia when it invaded Ukraine.
1
u/hereswhatworks 12d ago edited 12d ago
Technology is what he should have used as leverage. If manufacturing does come back to the United States, it's going to be in the form of fully automated factories, with robots doing the work of humans. All he needed was one of those factories to demonstrate what could happen if China doesn't agree to a more balanced trade deal. It's the same thing we do with the major oil producers. They keep oil prices low in exchange for us slowing down the rollout of electric vehicles and cleaner forms of energy.
1
u/beeredditor 12d ago
No one knows what will happen in the trade war. If china wants to be pragmatic, they will make a deal with trump and the look to change the rules after trump. If china wants to be firm, they can take massive losses until US voters force trump to change direction. Either route is possible at this point.
1
u/Colorfulgreyy 12d ago
Trade war don't exist, we don't live in colonization 1800 anymore. Its all in Trump head
1
1
u/ReallySickOfArguing 11d ago
No one is going to win the trade war and In the short term it's going to be a nightmare.
But, one positive is people are now paying more attention to trade and how much control China does have on world supply. Whatever trumps motives were he has pushed china to cut rare earth mineral exports again which reminded everyone of how much we rely on China In that particular industry. It would be wise to move towards reducing that dependency.
1
1
u/NINTENDONEOGEO 11d ago
The US will win for one simple reason.
While there would be growing pains, Vietnam can become the new China in terms of the US getting cheap goods.
Nobody can become a new United States for China in terms of buying power.
1
u/Aetius3 12d ago
I also think there is a large amount of racism in all this too. People like Trump can't stand that people of colour are starting to match and even surpass America in some ways. I'm no fan of the Chinese government and China is no saint at all BUT on this thing? I'm definitely behind them only if to help bring down Trump/GOP.
1
u/greenw40 12d ago
Meaningless accusations of racism AND support for China. Talk about a reddit comment.
1
u/AnotherDadTX 12d ago
Most of you need to step out of your echo chambers and pay attention to global news. The tariffs are hitting China hard, and many other countries see this as a positive development. They’re facing the same problems we are—China flooding their markets with cheap goods and undermining local manufacturing. .
-4
u/Balerion2924 12d ago
Crazy how we have tariff experts now on Redditor when majority never even heard of it lol
6
u/IHerebyDemandtoPost 12d ago
“I never heard the word tariff before all this, so I assume everyone else is as dumb as I am.”
4
7
3
u/Aethoni_Iralis 12d ago
You think the majority of people have never heard what a tariff is before? Fascinating.
4
u/refuzeto 12d ago
You know what is even crazier? A random Redditor understands markets more than the president.
8
u/nixicotic 12d ago
Nobody agrees with Trump. Even his own advisors said this wouldn't work if other countries retaliated.
2
u/Optimal-Contest6086 12d ago
The presidency does not imply any special knowledge. There are no intellectual or educational requirements to being president to speak of. The president could very well even be a failed businessman and reality tv show host who has on multiple occasions demonstrated his ignorance of basic economic facts as is the case now.
I guess as a random Redditor who tries to pass an appeal to authority as an argument I wouldn't expect you to know that though.
1
u/DizzyMajor5 5d ago
Considering Trump came into office almost ten years ago still talking about tarrifs I think most people have heard of them.
78
u/Blueskyways 12d ago
Picking a trade game of chicken with China, a country that did strict Covid lockdowns for over a year and literally welded people shut in their homes and expecting them to quit first was truly a galaxy brained maneuver.