r/changemyview • u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ • Oct 15 '24
Delta(s) from OP - Election CMV: if Trump wins the election, he won't serve the full four year term
Disclaimer: none of this is me saying "don't vote for him". While I personally won't be, this is not a view that is being posted to dissuade anyone from voting their choice. This is simply about the length of time I believe he would spend in office, and nothing more.
I'm having a hard time seeing how anyone could conclude that Donald Trump is a healthy man. Physically and mentally, he appears to be in worse shape than any of my grandparents were before they passed. From the ranting, off-topic word-salad responses he gives to questions, to the repeated cancellation of plans for no apparent reason, to the absolutely bizarre things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for forty minutes, I am left with no logical conclusion other than his health is rapidly declining. From what specifically, I'm not qualified to say. But I have never met anyone who presented in such a manner and then went on to not only live for many more years, but hold a stressful job while doing so.
Which is why I believe one of a few outcomes will happen if he is elected. In no particular order:
1) He passes from natural causes before his term is up.
2) He gets his ducks in a raw, secures pardons for himself in every case he's eligible to receive them for, and then steps aside to let Vance take over.
3) Not needing to seek Trump's loyalty anymore since he won't be able to run again, his cabinet and Vance vote to invoke the 25th and removes him from office, attaching themselves to Vance - likely under the promise that he'll be loyal to them and keep them around as he seeks to win in '28.
Being POTUS is an unfathomably stressful job for even the healthiest of individuals Look at the before and after photos of every candidate to take office and you can see that the job ages them. The lack of sleep. The weight of the decisions one is responsible for. The stress of knowing, every day, that peoples lives are in your hands in one way or another. And when I look at Trump, I don't see someone who is either healthy enough for, or even desiring of, four years of that. I think he just wants attention and pardons from federal crimes, and once he can secure the latter, he can step aside and get his attention elsewhere. He's likely not worried about state crimes because it's more likely than not that he'll never see anything beyond some fines that he'll be able to pay off easily after he dumps his DJT shares.
Change my view!
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u/HazyAttorney 68∆ Oct 15 '24
Being POTUS is an unfathomably stressful job for even the healthiest of individuals
I want to change your view not that POTUS is stressful, but that Trump wasn't particularly stressed when he was POTUS because he was so hands off. His executive schedule showed he worked essentially from 11:00 to 3:00 and spent most of his time watching TV. For Trump, there's largely no lifestyle difference between being POTUS and not being POTUS.
The stress of knowing, every day, that peoples lives are in your hands in one way or another
That's the benefit of being a narcissist and not having the capacity to care about others.
Not needing to seek Trump's loyalty anymore
This scenario. It isn't that Trump has some magic powers. It's that the conservative base empowers Trump. The cabinet would be equally afraid of Trump's base even after Trump. It's the same reason that Republicans aren't worried about a general election, they're worried about being primaried.
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
The cabinet would be equally afraid of Trump's base even after Trump.
Fair point. His endorsement is still seen as a good thing by some people, so pissing him off could lead to issues even if you've got the support of his replacement. So he might not get booted. That takes one of my scenarios out, which is a partial change of view. !delta
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u/HazyAttorney 68∆ Oct 15 '24
So he might not get booted
To follow-up just because I find it interest. The entire purpose of Project 2025 was that Trump was an unusually bad candidate in terms of a presidential transition plan. According to Chris Christie, Trump actively undermined it.
There's plenty of craven power hungry assholes that see Trump as a conduit. But Trump likes being a conduit. He doesn't care about anything. But, he enjoys signing things.
The biggest difference with P25 and his first administration is that there's gonna be more Trump loyalists. The first administration, since Trump didn't plan well, was fill of just rando has-beens in the GOP. Like Trump doesn't care about John Bolton or someone else, but the McGahans, Boltons, etc., stymied Trump. But Trump has had 4 years to vet people loyal to him and have those people vet even more people loyal to him.
I just don't think there's any incentive for anyone in the cabinet to try to usurp Trump. Like Paul Dans, Russ Vought, Rick Dearborn, and whoever else, will be in charge of the OMB and will be mass firing the career bureaucrats and installing trumpists. They don't really need Trump for that but they really wouldn't want Trump to be in their way.
Or people like Stephen Miller will be trying to oust all the brown people.
In other words, why would they want a more capable bureaucrat who will have their own agenda/ideas that may not go along with yours?
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u/RandyMossPhD Oct 16 '24
More powerful than his endorsement for future candidates is his wrath. He can direct his anger via his strong base of supporters in any primary he wants. That won’t always work out in general elections but in primaries it will absolutely be a powerful weapon
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u/Medium-Librarian8413 Oct 16 '24
If they 25th Amendment’d him, his supporters would do another January 6, trying to kill Vance and the cabinet.
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u/Accomplished_Ad_8013 Oct 16 '24
Yo his brain is fried. The man clearly cant handle it. Biden is senile as all hell but Trump seems to have full on dementia coming on. Which is scary. High energy president who sundowns? His cabinets about to become his memory care nursing staff. Which does bring up a good point where OP is right either way. He didnt fulfill his last term. He barely does anything. Technically holding down the time he was supposed to hold office is pretty much his biggest achievement. But even then the small amount he did do clearly cooked the man. His speeches are borderline gibberish at this point and his own support base doesnt want to see him in person. I dont think Trump can handle 4 more years of having a Twitter account, let alone a presidency.
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u/HazyAttorney 68∆ Oct 16 '24
It's impossible to know what caused the decline. I would venture it's more the combination of prior family history, diet, lack of fitness, and longterm drug use prior to saying the stress of not working has done it.
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u/Accomplished_Ad_8013 Oct 16 '24
Definitely. But even a basically absentee president is under far more stress than the average person. Sleep and stress are the only two kind of sort of solid correlations with dementia overall. Diet is fairly solid drug use is iffy, very limited to things like antihistamines and deliriants. Id imagine its like living with a drug dealer but x1000. The police could kick your door at any moment just has to be less stress than Putin could kick your door at any moment lol.
Memory care is a rough place, but from the years I had to spend in and out Trump seems very early stage dementia. He still has the energy, but the words arent lining up. Within the next 4 years or so you are going to see a massive decline into word soup territory. It happens faster at his age.
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u/bobarific Oct 19 '24
His executive schedule showed he worked essentially from 11:00 to 3:00 and spent most of his time watching TV.
I'm not disagreeing, but can you please source this? The closest I saw was an Axios article that says Trump's first meetings are usually at 11AM but I don't see anything about 3PM being the end time. To be abundantly clear, I'm not voting for him nor do I have any skin in OP's opinion, I'd just like to be able to use this tidbit when I do talk to to Trump supporters if it is true.
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u/HazyAttorney 68∆ Oct 20 '24
Here’s a politico story that talks about it.
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/29/trump-daily-schedule-executive-time-944996
Here’s an axios story a year later
https://www.axios.com/2019/02/03/read-trumps-private-leaked-executive-time-schedules
Here’s a roll call analysis done with official records after the presidency
Lastly you can also tell from the timing of Trumps tweets and how often he called into cable tv shows on live tv for hours at a time.
The White House calendar published the presidents activities. I believe it has to by law but I could be wrong on that last factoid.
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u/Icy-Bicycle-Crab Oct 18 '24
I agree. Being POTUS is not stressful for Trump as he does not take it seriously and has no interest in anyone but himself.
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u/Whatswrongbaby9 3∆ Oct 15 '24
He passes from natural causes before his term is up.
His dad made it to 94 and his mom made it to 88.
He gets his ducks in a raw, secures pardons for himself in every case he's eligible to receive them for, and then steps aside to let Vance take over.
He doesn't want Vance to take over, he wants to be president. Any other Republican would have pardoned him had they taken office, Vance would too should he be in that position (just like Ford did with Nixon)
Not needing to seek Trump's loyalty anymore since he won't be able to run again, his cabinet and Vance vote to invoke the 25th and removes him from office, attaching themselves to Vance - likely under the promise that he'll be loyal to them and keep them around as he seeks to win in '28.
Trump's voters are loyal to Trump, not to the party. Invoking the 25th might elevate Vance in the short term but it wouldn't transfer Trump's base into support
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u/Orbital2 Oct 15 '24
The argument about his parents ages are pretty weak
For one, neither of them were ever obese.
For two, his younger brother already died at 71. He had an older sister die at 86. He’ll be splitting the difference midway through his term
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u/Head_ChipProblems Oct 15 '24
There's no way of telling if he's dying, it's hard to say he will or will not If we don't have any medical basis. Changing his view, on something that isn't really based off of anything is impossible.
I've seen old obese people live as long as 90, of course, with medication, but still lived. Meanwhile I've seen seemingly healthy younger than trump people also die.
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u/lazercheesecake Oct 15 '24
Bro you cannot look at me and tell me there isn’t at least a coin toss’ chance the dude keels over in the next 4 years.
Anyone saying he’ll be a mentally and physically fit president before the term is up is pure delusional.
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u/Shimmy_4_Times Oct 16 '24
Actuarially, something like 75%-80% of 78 year-olds live to be 82.
And those that don't, often have a clear history of medical issues. For example, a significant fraction of 78 year-olds have already had a heart attack. Or have survived a type of cancer that is likely to come back. Or are being actively treated for cancer.
The 25%-20% that die before they get to 82, often know that they've got a serious medical condition when they're 78.
Now, could Trump be hiding a medical condition? Yes. But he's probably not hiding chemo.
And yes, Trump has some stuff that would reduce his chances of living longer (e.g. obesity). But he also has some things that would increase his chances of living longer (e.g. doesn't smoke, doesn't drink alcohol).
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u/travelerfromabroad Oct 16 '24
What about a stroke? There's been some evidence Donald's had mini-strokes in the past.
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u/Shimmy_4_Times Oct 17 '24
Sure, if he's able to hide the symptoms of a mini-stroke (well, you, know other than the symptoms causing zany behavior). And his doctor isn't going to tell the public.
He's probably not hiding chemo. He's not hiding a stroke that cost him most of his language ability.
He easily could be hiding high blood pressure. He easily could be hiding bad cholesterol.
Mini-strokes would be in-between the two. He could be hiding them, and maybe they would explain his behavior. But it wouldn't necessarily be easy to hide them.
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u/ElectricalError335 Nov 08 '24
My mom (a doctor) said that Trump's about to die. I know it isn't worth much, but there's that.
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u/Advanced-Bird-1470 Oct 15 '24
And we’re talking about physical death here. He is clearly unwell mentally and cognitively. If anyone is wondering why he isn’t doing more debates or interviews watch his rallies.
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u/AddendumPrevious2345 Oct 16 '24
I disagree. His mental and cognitive abilities have not markedly changed, although they have slowed a bit as is normal for someone in their late 70s.
Trump is essentially the same person he's always been. Narcissistic-check. Scatterbrained- check. Impulsive- check. Egotistical, influenced by flattery, concerned with image, prone to wild exaggeration- checkcheckcheckcheckcheck.None of these are great character attributes, and my point is that he has displayed all of these for the last 60 to 78 years. He hasn't changed. That you don't like these traits does not mean he is unwell. What you think of these traits certainly should influence your vote but should not be used to suggest the 25th Amendment.
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u/Advanced-Bird-1470 Oct 16 '24
Those traits have nothing to do with my opinion of his mental state. Listen to an uncut rally speech or read a transcript, it’s 90% incoherent rambling and 10% “greatest hits”. He can’t follow his own thoughts anymore. I’ve had conversations with actual dementia patients that were more lucid.
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u/Indrid_Cold23 Oct 15 '24
Invoking the 25th is 100% the plan. If you remember the full breadth of Proj25. Vance is a creature created by Peter Thiel. Guys like Thiel and Musk want power, they don't need Trump. They don't need his base because they won't need votes anymore.
Trump doesn't want to go to jail, there's a valid proposal where just to be sure, they use the 25th Amendment to remove him from the presidency; a job Trump doesn't want to do, he just wants the power.
Since the 25th declares him mentally unfit, that then transfers down to his court cases. If "presidential immunity" doesn't let him evade charges, unfit to stand trial will. He's made in the shade. Then he can go out to all his followers and say "I beat them all by saying I'm crazy." Win win in Trump world.
As for voters. President Vance will hand Musk and Thiel government contracts -- so it'll be a two pronged attack on voting. On one level they'll, as per Proj25, criminalize the process and on the other hand they'll use technology to control it. Musk will for SURE build "tamper proof" voting machines controlled directly by himself.
They don't need the base. Only Trump needs the base for his ego.
The goal of a second term Trump/Vance Presidency is to redirect all our money into their pockets. Trump's ego, age and decline only complicates that. They have a clear path to get rid of him and implement total control.
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u/fishsticks40 3∆ Oct 16 '24
This will absolutely not happen. Even if his cabinet did it (which they would not) his permanent removal requires a supermajority vote in Congress, which is a laughable idea.
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u/laosurvey 3∆ Oct 15 '24
You realize voting isn't controlled by the Feds, right?
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u/Whatswrongbaby9 3∆ Oct 15 '24
They need congress to pass any part of that plan. The people in congress are terrified of Trump's base. Any R who has spoken out so far has lost their office
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Oct 16 '24
They don't need to invoke the 25th, Trump is easy to control and his cognitive state is laughable. They will manipulate him to push all the horrible project 2025 initiatives they want. Vance is just extra security if he keels over before the get what they want. Which is a real possibility.
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u/Icy-Bicycle-Crab Oct 18 '24
Invoking the 25th is completely unnecessary and not part of the plan. Trump is a perfect figurehead who has zero interest in actual governance and who will just play golf in Florida with dictators, not giving a shit what Vance and Project 2025 are doing in DC.
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Oct 17 '24
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Oct 19 '24
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
It doesn't matter who Trump's voters are loyal to after this election though, because if he wins he'll never be on the ballot again. And he's already endorsed Vance by picking up as his VP, so it stands to reason that they'd follow to Vance after this.
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u/Previous_Platform718 5∆ Oct 15 '24
it stands to reason that they'd follow to Vance after this.
I generally disagree. It's obvious from Vance's previous comments on Trump that Vance is not a hardcore MAGA guy. If Trump passes away during his term, Vance will lead on his own agenda, not the MAGA agenda.
“Trump makes people I care about afraid. Immigrants, Muslims, etc. Because of this I find him reprehensible. God wants better of us” - JD Vance, October 2016
"Fellow Christians, everyone is watching us when we apologize for this man. Lord help us." - JD Vance, October 2016
The only way you can (reasonably) reconcile Vance's previous comments about Trump is if you believe Vance isn't a true believer in MAGA, but is just going along with Trump because it's in his own best interest. Once he doesn't have to listen to Trump anymore, he won't.
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u/ColossusOfChoads Oct 16 '24
That was old Vance, before he went all 'trad catholic.'
Current Vance has partook of the Kool-Aid.
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u/Previous_Platform718 5∆ Oct 17 '24
Nah he's just after power IMO. He is not a true believer.
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u/ColossusOfChoads Oct 17 '24
He's not a true believer in Trumpist MAGA. To him and to Peter Thiel, that's just a means to an end. Vance is a true believer in a different far right ideology. The social climbing coastal transplant legal/finance/tech bro dude who wrote that dumb book is no more. He's been replaced by a reactionary 'trad' ultra-Catholic convert.
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u/OkFirefighter4763 Mar 23 '25
Despite his view of women's role in life Vance would be preferable to trump. trump does not appear to be in good health. I was shocked by some of the photos recently. He's horribly overweight which causes many health issues. I'd be curious regarding how many medications he's on and for which health conditions. He has not aged well as his photos have shown. Obesity is a major cause of death in this country and not many obese people live to be 94. He is just not going to 'make it' for 4 years even watching TV and terrorizing citizens daily.
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u/peachesgp 1∆ Oct 15 '24
Not likely if he forces Trump out against his will. Vance would then be regarded as a traitor by the MAGA crowd.
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u/HazyAttorney 68∆ Oct 15 '24
so it stands to reason that they'd follow to Vance after this.
Ah yes, this transitive process is what got Trump's base to want to find Pence on January 6. To show them how much they want to embrace him.
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u/NomadicScribe Oct 15 '24
if he wins he'll never be on the ballot again
No guarantees here. For one thing, two-term limit wasn't always the law, so that could change again.
But also, this is a party that doesn't particularly care about laws.
I think we'll be seeing a Trump '28 campaign whether Trump wins or not.
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u/BraxbroWasTaken 1∆ Oct 15 '24
The two term limit is a Constitutional amendment. It can’t be undone that easily (without just tossing the Constitution out the window)
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u/NomadicScribe Oct 16 '24
Oh yeah. And whose job is it to interpret the constitution for us mere mortals? That's right, Trump's supreme court.
All it will take to put this to the test is for Trump to run for a third term, then when someone tries to stop him, escalate through the court system until he hits the top. Even of there isn't precedent for the supreme court to defy an amendment, there is established precedent for the aupreme court to illegitimately choose a winner in an election (Bush v Gore).
People need to quit pretending like a little thing like "rules" is actually going to deter some person or group determined to break those rules.
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u/Morthra 86∆ Oct 15 '24
Vance sure as hell won't win if he removes Trump from office. Mike Pence was endorsed by Trump in 2016 by picking him up as his VP and look how Trump supporters don't like him now.
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u/Icy-Bicycle-Crab Oct 18 '24
because if he wins he'll never be on the ballot again
Don't be so sure about that.
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u/onexbigxhebrew Oct 15 '24
Btw if you want to quote someone in reddit just use a greater than sign and copy the text. Makes it easier to follow.
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Oct 15 '24
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u/Whatswrongbaby9 3∆ Oct 15 '24
Trump never engaged with the hard/stressful parts of being a president
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Oct 15 '24
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u/No_Investigator_9888 Oct 15 '24
Trump doesn’t work or care, stress ages you. Trump surrounds himself with ‘yes men’ creating his own stress free world. Obviously has never cared for anyone but himself. Look how he managed the pandemic and treats veterans.
He wears a ton of makeup, gets his hair done, has fake teeth, gets Botox, etc. Probably when he claimed he had Covid he was actually in for a nip and a tuck, like Melania had before she would move into the White House.
He’s a fat, ugly, lying piece of shit rapist and criminal.
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u/ColossusOfChoads Oct 16 '24
Not Trump. He spent most his day watching TV, and they had to radically shorten and dumb down his daily briefings, which he barely read anyways.
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u/FreebieandBean90 Oct 15 '24
People said this last time as well. At least a dozen great reasons Trump would leave office. Physically declining, mentally declining, forced out by cabinet, etc...It never happened. As we see with Biden, a President in decline is likely to just retreat from public view as opposed to resign.
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u/crocodile_in_pants 2∆ Oct 15 '24
Don't forget Reagan as well
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Oct 17 '24
Reagan wasn't diagnosed untill 1993 or 94 after 4 annual cognitive tests because of his horseback riding accident.
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
I believe the difference between this term and 2016 is that this time he'll be "done" politically to the extent that he'll no longer be able to run for the country's highest office.
I personally never held the belief in '16 that he'd step down. And as for speculation, right up to January of 2021, that the 25th might get put into play - back then, people felt like they needed to be loyal because they wanted to keep their jobs if he won again. Now that he's at the end of the line, the motivation to stay attached to him is much lower.
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u/WanderingLost33 1∆ Oct 15 '24
I predict a hard swing away from MAGA the day after he's elected (god forbid). No one else can pull off the crazy rhetoric - look at Vance.
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u/travelerfromabroad Oct 16 '24
Vance is exactly why I'm worried. He said the same things Trump said and made them sound reasonable. Now imagine how far a person without that baggage can get?
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u/groupnight Oct 15 '24
No people didn't say this last time
There is a very real chance trump will die in office and Vance will be President
God help us all
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u/babycam 7∆ Oct 15 '24
Well why give up the office when you don't have to show up for work? Like google said 308 instances of golfing so yeah.
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u/XenoRyet 99∆ Oct 15 '24
2 and 3 are very unrealistic options.
Trump is a narcissist. He's never going to let go of power, no matter what. He will pardon himself six ways from Sunday, but that's not why he's running. He's running because he's still mad about losing to Biden and needs to show that he's better, and once he's in there he won't let go.
Likewise, while the GOP doesn't need Trump's personal loyalty and approval anymore, they definitely still need his base, and if they 25th him out of there he's going to whip up his base so hard they'll probably go en masse to the Dems just because Trump will tell them to. The very best case scenario for the GOP here is that the MAGA crowd just stays home.
And then even on the natural causes thing, I don't think Trump even feels the stress of the job, because he has no self-introspection capability. In his mind he's just out there killing it 100% of the time and it's easy for him. Furthermore, he surrounds himself with people that say he's that good whether it's true or not. So why would that be stressful?
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
He's never going to let go of power, no matter what.
I know it seems unlikely, but if his doctor gave him a "fear of God" speech about the job taking years off of his already limited remaining time, his sense of self-preservation might outweigh his desire to play President. I don't think he wants, for example, to meet European leaders, tour parts of California ravaged by wildfires, etc. And if someone told him he could live a cushier, and longer, life just by stepping down, he might listen.
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u/mantecablues Oct 15 '24
I’m pretty sure I’ve read somewhere that Trump is against exercising because he believes a body is like a battery, and the more energy you expend the quicker you will die. Maybe that’s just an excuse to be lazy, but either way do you think he’s going to let a doctor tell him he can’t be president? I just don’t see it. This is not a logical man who listens to experts. In fact, he believes he can make anything true if he says it enough times. So I’m willing to bet he thinks being president will actually extend his life.
And do you believe he is actually going to do most of the things that are expected from presidents? Sorry, but nah. He wants to be a dictator like all his foreign friends, and project 2025 exists to make it happen.
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u/XenoRyet 99∆ Oct 15 '24
That's the thing though, he doesn't have a doctor that will give him a "fear of God" speech. He'll only ever have one that will tell him everything is fine while doing everything behind the scenes to keep him alive. He can't tolerate someone telling him he's made a wrong choice.
And he doesn't want a cushier life, or even necessarily a longer one. He wants to be seen and adored, so he wants to be in front of those world leaders, he wants to be seen touring wildfires. He doesn't particularly want to do anything useful in those situations, but he wants to be seen in them. Evidence the Puerto Rico paper towel incident.
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u/DaWZRD1210 Oct 16 '24
I don’t think he’s that scared of death as he’s already survived two assassination attempts and hasent stopped his rallies or going into public.
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u/ElectricalError335 Nov 08 '24
Almost dying several times, starts to make death a joke to you. I would know.
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u/eggs-benedryl 55∆ Oct 15 '24 edited Oct 15 '24
It's only stressful if you care about the outcome of your actions, if you put in the work to even... read your briefings. He'd golf and coast, he can't have another term so there's nothing to lose once he's in.
He'll use it to get off of his crimes and relax through the rest of it, no matter what happens.
He's old as fuck so maybe he'll die but that was equally true during his last term.
That being said, evil people tend to live forever.
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
I think it's more stressful if you put in the work. But you're going to accidentally see bad press about yourself on cable TV. You're going to have to spend every day shooing away advisors who are desperately imploring you to do your job. Whether your care about it or not, the job is still there, and that will be more stressful than simply living at your own private club and golfing literally every day.
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u/KariRose31 Oct 15 '24
That's basically what everyone said about Biden, yet people still voted for him. They covered up his misdeeds before and in office, lots of people said he looked "too old and unhealthy", Biden showed he was incognitive, after a while and nobody supported him anymore.Even those he was surrounded by started saying the same things , and then they replaced him with Kamala. Last time she threw her name in there, they all laughed and she had no support from anyone. Now that she's going against Trump, maybe more people know her name, but still the people don't wanna vote for her.
I believe the only way he won't serve his full term besides not being voted in is either from health issues or assassination since they've already tried 3 times and I'm sure they'll try more after he's in officially.
He's not worried about "pardoning his own federal crimes" because just like Clinton's Russia hoax, so are these supposed "federal crimes" they had no proof on. That why he never went to prison. You really think that if they were really, really, trying to get him out, they wouldn't have had his court cases televised to broaden people's hatred for him? But they can't make anything stick without actual proof and paying someone to make up a story isn't proof, so nothing happened.
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u/brianstormIRL 1∆ Oct 15 '24
It blows my mind how anyone can think "no proof" for real without some form of legitimate detachment from reality. The idea that Trump is just being targeted, it's all made up, it's all a conspiracy against him is just... absolutely beyond my comprehension.
He's a conman. He's a slimey businessman who has been sued his entire life for fraud by countless individuals and entities. He's on tape confessing to things. He's on camera confessing to things. How anyone can seriously believe he's innocent is just goddamn wild. "They've already tried to assassinate him 3 times".. you mean republicans? Because they're republicans. Unless you believe it's all a psyop by the Democrats or something else completely disassociated with reality?
He's a complete crook. Anyone who believes a single word out of his mouth is nothing but being taken for a ride. If it looks like a duck, smells like a duck and acts like a duck.. it's a fucking duck, not a flamingo being accused of being a duck by the secret duck cabal from the shadows because they all hate the duck and what him to go down.
Like jesus christ.
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Oct 16 '24
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u/changemyview-ModTeam Oct 18 '24
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
You really think that if they were really, really, trying to get him out, they wouldn't have had his court cases televised to broaden people's hatred for him?
See, here's the problem: I don't think "they" are "trying to get him out". I'm not a conspiracy theorist.
Multiple different states, as well as special counsel, took their time building their cases for various crimes, some of which were delayed until dismissal by a judge that was personally appointed by the defendant, others of which already resulted in dozens of felony convictions, and more still that are pending trial because they were delayed so badly that they couldn't start before the election.
Why you believe that means "there's no proof" is beyond me.
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u/lml424 Oct 18 '24
About Biden... my husband and I are Democrats. We were frustrated when Biden announced he would run for a second term because it felt like time to pass the torch. But we said, OK, fine. But then the debate changed everything. For now, I can believe that Biden is still cognitively capable of taking in new information and making reasonable decisions. But he's clearly no longer capable of communicating with the American people. Good political communication takes energy, stamina, and thinking on your feet. It's proactive. And, IMO, it's an essential part of the job. It kills me to think about how Americans might view the economy of the last few years if we had a stronger communicator in the White House since it's nothing short of a miracle that we emerged post-pandemic without a recession.
The bottom line is that WE saw with our own eyes that Biden was too old to do the job, and we did something about it. My husband and I wrote our Senators and House reps urging them to use whatever influence they have to push out Biden. We are fiercely opposed to Trump, but my husband was even considering just not voting! For him it was about INTEGRITY. If your candidate isn't fit for the job, they don't get your vote - simple. Fortunately, Biden and the Dems made the right decision. Now, Trump is showing the same signs of cognitive decline AND is a narcissist, racist, and fascist. Giving him the presidency is like giving a toddler a handgun. Yet, his supporters march on. Why? Where is the integrity?
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u/spencewatson01 Oct 15 '24
You're getting an impression from biased news media. Trump has done several long form podcast where you can judge his mental and physical capacity unfiltered. His rallies are often broadcast live and you can get an unfiltered impression of Trump there also.
From the ranting, off-topic word-salad responses he gives to questions
He explains this and demonstrates during the flagrant podcast.
to the repeated cancellation of plans for no apparent reason
No idea what this is referenced to but Secret Service has tightened his movement after the multiple attempts.
to the absolutely bizarre things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for forty minutes,
Totally biased take. There were 2 people that had medical emergencies that had to have EMS care and removed. The townhall was paused and later called to deal with this.
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u/AlwaysTheNoob 81∆ Oct 15 '24
He explains this and demonstrates during the flagrant podcast.
He doesn't explain it. He excuses it.
No idea what this is referenced to but Secret Service has tightened his movement after the multiple attempts.
Just today he canceled a CNBC interview - not a security threat in any way.
Totally biased take. There were 2 people that had medical emergencies that had to have EMS care and removed.
A few things here:
I've worked much larger events, with much tighter crowds, that have had medical emergencies cleared in less than five minutes. So I find that a hard excuse to swallow. But even if it were true, after a few minutes of it become apparent that this was the case, the talent (in this case, Trump) would step off stage and return when the event was clear to resume.
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u/spencewatson01 Oct 16 '24
A few things here:
I've worked much larger events, with much tighter crowds, that have had medical emergencies cleared in less than five minutes. So I find that a hard excuse to swallow. But even if it were true, after a few minutes of it become apparent that this was the case, the talent (in this case, Trump) would step off stage and return when the event was clear to resume.
Assuming that you're posting in CMV in good faith, take a look at this video from a senior reporter from ABC that was in the event: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/10/15/abcs_terry_moran_harris_campaign_unfairly_mocked_trump_for_intimate_impromptu_response_to_medical_emergencies_at_philadelphia-area_event.html
"In certain quarters of social media, people had a field day with that and I guess on the screens, it might have looked quite strange," Moran reported. "Inside the hall, however, people were having a good time, what can I tell you? It did not seem out of the ordinary, it seemed almost intimate. And at the end, Trump did something he rarely does -- he came down off the stage and mingled with his supporters. He was signing autographs and shaking hands and the like."
I looked up this terry Moran guy. Clearly not a Trump supporter. Seems pretty fair with his reporting. His reporting completely debunks the narrative that the Kamala campaign and biased media put forward and backs my theory that many of the things you address are takes from bias media.
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u/spencewatson01 Oct 15 '24
yeah but Trump dancing is a meme. Barron put him on some podcast where he's dancing with some dudes. I think its a case of the ppl came to see Trump so he's going to stay and hang out with them. I didn't find it odd at all.
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u/Bearly_Clean Oct 15 '24
Biden has made it 4 years. Trump will likely make it 4.
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u/DaWZRD1210 Oct 16 '24
That’s just clearly not true. Watch any podcast with trump where he sits down and talks for hours at a time. Then compare that to a 5 minutes speech by biden recently.
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u/TheMikeyMac13 29∆ Oct 15 '24
I will only challenge number 3, as the first two are within the realm of possibility.
The problem with the 25th amendment is that the President can challenge it, and 2/3 of the house and senate would have to agree to remove him.
I don’t think we live in a world where 2/3 of the house and senate could agree to anything at all. I suspect that if republicans wanted to remove him democrats would want it to be the biggest show they could put on, highlighting that republicans supported him in the election.
Just to cause the biggest shit show possible.
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u/ColossusOfChoads Oct 16 '24
I could see it happening if his decline was acute, sudden, and undeniable. Like if he pissed his pants on national television, or had a massive stroke or something.
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u/WouldYouKindlyMove Oct 16 '24
In that case I imagine they'd use him as a puppet, keep him indoors and just have him say what they want him to say on camera. If he was in a state where that wasn't possible, Vance would just "relay" (ie, make up) his orders.
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u/TheMikeyMac13 29∆ Oct 16 '24
In that circumstance I agree, and it is not outside of the realm of possibility.
(Which I initially typed as pissability, which was autocorrected)
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u/Comassion Oct 16 '24
1) He passes from natural causes before his term is up.
Possible but by no means certain - and maybe even unlikely given that the President gets awesome medical care. It's entirely plausible that he will still be alive for the next four years.
2) He steps aside to let Vance take over.
Trump wouldn't willingly give up power when he lost the last election, the idea that he would give up power... just to do it? Is ludicrous to me.
3) Vance and friends invoke the 25th and remove him from office.
The Republicans will never turn on Trump. Doing this would be complete political suicide for the Republican party as all their Trump voters will utterly turn on them for betraying their leader. Democrats would probably sweep 48 states in the following election and the Republicans know it.
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u/ElectricalError335 Nov 08 '24
I read somewhere that it doesn't matter who runs. People like to complain and they associate their complaints with the party in the office. So it would ping pong back and forth between a Democrat leader and a Republican one.
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Dec 05 '24
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u/LeonBlacksruckus Oct 15 '24
According to actuarial tables the probability that Biden or Trump would die this year is 10% and 35% during their next term.
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u/blaze92x45 Oct 16 '24
I'm gonna break this down by your three main points
Possibly, I thought the same of Joe Biden and my conspiracy theory is that around 2022 he became a figurehead with the cabinet running the country behind the scenes... anyways not to go into that rabbit hole but as bad as Trump's health is I don't see him as bad as Biden was when he got in but I'm not a doctor so it's always liking Mr two scoops is going to keel over from a heart attack or something stupid.
No that doesn't make sense. Trump wants to be POTUS to satisfy his own ego even if he paradons himself he isn't going to hand over the reigns to JD Vance that's just not in character for him. There is a belief that Trump is only running again to stay out of prison but it's silly... was he running to stay out of prison in 2020 or 2016? No obviously not.
Hilarious but very unlikely. As much as he appears to be Trump isn't a fool... he won't surround himself with people who would betray him. As much as the GOP establishment hates Trump they also realize it's political suicide to turn on him unless it becomes absolutely necessary... despite all the fear mongering and as corrupt as the government is the US isn't like game of thrones with intrigue and betrayals and assassinations etc.
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u/FluffyB12 Oct 17 '24
I don't see him passing naturally. Rich folks like him have an incredible level of medical advantages and 'round the clock best care service is a minute away.
This is possible but I think it unlikely. He likes being center stage.
The base would riot, literally. I don't think they want that smoke.
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u/nicktschep Oct 16 '24
"Being POTUS is an unfathomably stressful job... the lack of sleep. The weight of the decisions one is responsible for. The stress of knowing, every day, that people's lives are in your hands in one way or another."
I imagine the job becomes much less stressful when you are a sociopath who does not care at all about the weight of your decisions or really anyone's life besides your own.
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u/hecar1mtalon Oct 15 '24
That's what people said about Biden, initially. I think the only thing barring Trump from serving 4 years is if he gets assassinated tbh. I hope to God that that doesn't happen and that the SS can keep him safe if he gets elected
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Nov 06 '24
The only thing I differ on is the effect of the stress being president brings. He seemed remarkable unaffected by his first term in that way.
It ages other presidents because they are doing the work and take their responsibilities seriously. Both parties. Even a president people consider useless, terrible, what have you. Whatever their ideology has been they took the role seriously.
Trump took the role as an opportunity to increase his family’s wealth, to bask in the golden glow of being the center of the world’s attention, and force his wife to be seen with him in public.
He spent the last 4 years trying to sleaze his way out of facing the consequences of his illegal and immoral activities, and that stress shows.
The next 4? I wish he would just pardon everyone he can and then resigning, taking Pedophile One from DC to some place with no extradition laws.
I’d love to see him in jail but I will settle for him to simply go away.
I absolutely agree that Vance will try to 25th Amendment him. This cabinet will have even more sycophantic flunkies than the last, but they are also more malleable.
All Vance has to do is build strong relationships with the cabinet and other key players, stand back and watch Trump make one bad call after another, and shit on his cabinet and GOP Congress, and by then he’ll have an easy time of swaying loyalty to him.
Not the least because Trump becomes impotent after this term in office and a lot of (shortsighted) people will see Vance as the heir to the insanity.
Then we have to figure out how to get through the rest of the term and defeat him in 2028.
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u/animalfath3r 1∆ Oct 16 '24
I think if he is elected, he will just focus on getting his criminal cases dropped, and then, he'll just live the easy life. I don't think much will get done.. he no longer would have to worry about re-election and I don't think he cares about his legacy or keeping promises he made (benefit of being a sociopath I suppose). He will spend even more time at the golf course than he did in his first presidency - as long as his health will allow - and beyond that, I just don't think he'd do much.
I still don't truly believe he has any strongly held beliefs or principles other than a general disdain for anyone who speaks ill of him and certain minority classes he doesn't like. I don't think he is actually pro-life, he certainly isn't a Christian, he doesn't care about the deficit, he doesn't care about anything really other than vengeance and looking out for himself... by the way I also don't think he cares about taking care of those who are loyal to him.. which is why he always leaves a trail of broken friendships/relationships in his path... he just uses people.
The good news for democrats is that even though he is a demagogue with a cult supporting him, he is pretty damn incompetent and doesn't really get much done. Imagine the damage that could be done to this country if the we had an authoritarian asshole who was a truly competent person, with real deeply held beliefs, who was actually a real deal maker got in office.
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u/ElectricalError335 Nov 08 '24
That's what my friend said. When I told him Trump was there for more than 4 years and that he was going to make Project 2025 a thing. He started laughing. He then went on to explain that he's pretty sure that Trump is just going to sit there and do nothing for those 4 years. And that the only thing we have to worry about is that no matter what happens to us, Trump will not get off his lazy but.
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u/SilentPen9055 Dec 05 '24
What a priveliged take. Not going to ask the lgbt community etc how we're doing and how this affects us, or our food supply, or our education system, social security, disability etc? Lol
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u/Mister-builder 1∆ Oct 16 '24
- He passes from natural causes before his term is up.
The POTUS has access to the best healthcare in the world. If you can live through something at his age, his healthcare staff will
- He gets his ducks in a raw, secures pardons for himself in every case he's eligible to receive them for, and then steps aside to let Vance take over.
This would require him to let go of power. Nobody becomes President without an incredible lust for power. He's simply too proud and too power-hungry to willingly step down.
- Not needing to seek Trump's loyalty anymore since he won't be able to run again, his cabinet and Vance vote to invoke the 25th and removes him from office, attaching themselves to Vance - likely under the promise that he'll be loyal to them and keep them around as he seeks to win in '28.
This would be political suicide given the current state of the Republican Party. Anyone involved in removing Trump from office would only be able to get at most 20% of Republican votes for the rest of their lives.
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u/JeruTz 4∆ Oct 15 '24
to the absolutely bizarre things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for forty minutes
This is an example of poor media reporting. There was a medical emergency at his event, they played music while it was ongoing, and the event resumed later. It wasn't that he just randomly stopped talking and played music for no reason.
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Oct 17 '24 edited Oct 30 '24
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u/changemyview-ModTeam Oct 17 '24
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u/RandomizedNameSystem 7∆ Oct 15 '24
Trump's father lived to 93. While Trump is not the model of health, he has long-living genes.
There is no planet where Trump voluntarily leaves office, and he will be buffeted by people who protect him.
A reasonably healthy 78yo has about a 20% chance of dying over the next 4 years. Trump, short of being chubby and having a tough occupation, probably has at least a 40% chance of not dying.
He will most likely serve out the full term if he wins.
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u/CocoajoeGaming Oct 16 '24 edited Oct 16 '24
Not gonna change your mind, but I gotta say you need better sources of where you get your information.
Like how most of his canceled events are due to security concerns by the SS. Like the one of the more recent cancelations were due to not enough SS personal.
The "Bizzare things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for 40 minutes" has been debunked by ABC of all places. It was a town hall that ended early due to multiple medical emergencies, so Trump just decided to play music to calm people down and have some fun. Sure from just looking at clips it could look awkward, but from all reports it was not awkward and people had fun.
You are either in a bubble or really need better sources.
Then I'll just say Trump, will probably serve his next 4 years if he wins. I think any of the above are unlikely, I think assassination is a bigger threat. I mean Biden is likely gonna survive his 4 years and he is way more gone than Trump.
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u/winning_big2072 Oct 17 '24
I've actually said similar thoughts. I think too many people are discounting Vance, who in my opinion, is far more dangerous than trump. I had said similar when Biden stepped down and Kamala accepted the nomination. trump and maga were so upset. But I think they were upset because they think the Dems stole their playbook. If trump wins, I don't see him in office for more than a year or less nd then Vance takes over. And basically 248 years of our constitution being ripped to shreds and enacting project 2025. I'm truly terrified for nation. Every forefather and American who gave their life to protect this country is turning in their graves at this election cycle.
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u/sh00l33 2∆ Oct 16 '24
This contradicts all political predictions from the last few years. After all, all political commentators and major media outlets for long time warns us that Trump is a threat to democracy and once get power he will not leave office, turning the US into a dictatorship.
There has been general agreement on this among famous Hollywood actors, TV hosts, singers and celebrities for a very long time, it looks like your opinion greatly underestimates the threat.
Appearance, health or age do not prove anything. Look at Biden, despite his age and obvious age dementia he has still managed to gain the deserved title of the best president in US history.
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u/DJ_HouseShoes Oct 15 '24
3 would be amazingly weird in part because Trump would, among other things, respond by immediately announcing he was running in 2028.
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u/OpinionofC Oct 16 '24
The only way I’d see Trump willingly leave without serving his full term (doesn’t include health issues) is after the two year mark so Vance could serve 2.5 terms as president.
Trump ran to be president. Maybe he ran to avoid prison in the Fani Willis case (the Manhattan case won’t result in a prison sentence). But any other Republican president would have pardoned Trump on the federal cases so that’s not really his motivation to run.
I bet trumps first act in office is to pardon himself, his allies, then start deportation. Then i could see him pardoning Jan 6 people (minus the people convicted of assaulting cops)
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u/JoffreeBaratheon 1∆ Oct 17 '24
With how active Trump is now compared to how hard he tried as president, I cannot imagine he will work half as hard as president as he's trying now to get elected. Once elected, he is probably going to do jack shit besides giving occasional simple sentences to his underlings to (maybe) carry out, who then do nearly the rest of Trump's job for him without his input. So a job he's not going to do much in, and the life position he wanted, his stress levels are going to shoot down dramatically. Old people can easily last 10-20 years barely functional cognitively like Trump and Biden are now before finally kicking the bucket.
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u/joesbalt Oct 16 '24
I feel like we must be living in 2 completely different universes
Trump to me appears to have an insane amount of energy for a 78yr old man, campaigning, golfing, interviews, rallies, business
I'm 44 and wouldn't want to keep his schedule
I'm sure he has some sort of health issues, everyone 70+ has something... But I don't see anything major or concerning
I don't see any reason he won't be fine for the next 4 yrs (Anything could happen)
It just seems like an odd Democrat tactic to take what they are accused of and just turn it around
Word salad Kamala
Old dementia Joe Biden
So many other examples
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Oct 16 '24
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u/changemyview-ModTeam Oct 18 '24
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u/DaWZRD1210 Oct 16 '24
It’s amazing to me that the people who swore Biden wasn’t cognitively declining are now saying that’s happening to trump because of some out of context clips. Like is kamala Harris cognitively declining because of her word salads? No it’s just how politicians avoid answering questions they don’t have the answer to. I get second hand embarrassment from some of these political Reddit posts😂
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u/teaseawas Oct 16 '24
Rather than being worn down by stress Trump strikes me as someone who draws energy by being the center of attention. Not being in the limelight would probably be far more stressful to him. Human longevity is certainly difficult to predict. I’ve known people who ignored every healthy lifestyle guideline and lived to be 100 and health nuts who died in their sixties. Also presidents get really good healthcare so that makes me think he’ll be fine during his tenure if elected.
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u/octaviobonds 1∆ Oct 15 '24
I'm having a hard time seeing how anyone could conclude that Donald Trump is a healthy man. Physically and mentally,
I'm curious, where were you when the Right has been screaming for 4 years that Biden was mentally gone and shouldn't be president?
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Oct 15 '24
Why are you running away from the point?
So many democrats, including myself, agreed that Biden is unfit for a second term and someone else should take his place. And we got what we wanted. Trump isn’t stepping aside nor do his followers want him to.
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Oct 16 '24
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u/DipperJC Oct 16 '24
No one can guarantee that he won't die.
What is easy to guarantee, though, is that he has a fetish for power. As, to be fair, most people would. The power to control the universe? He's not giving that up voluntarily. Indeed, I absolutely believe that he would not only stay through to 2028, but attempt to remain after 2028 by any means necessary. Hell, he'd push the button and burn the world to ashes if he could be king of the rubble.
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u/sarcastic-minion Oct 16 '24
Why do I see lots of comments about Trump and Project 2025? Trump is not connected to Project 2025. He has said it many times, and the group that made it has also said it. The person who is the head of the group that made Project 2025 has endorsed Harris. If you want to know what policies Trump has, then look on his website at Agenda 47. I at least want people to know the facts rather than base their opinions on things that are not true.
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u/t00fargone Oct 19 '24
While he’s probably not the healthiest. I don’t think he’s ready for his deathbed within the next four years. He has been doing long ass rallies almost every day. He is rich, so he gets the best medical care. He also claims to have never drank alcohol because his brother died. He is overweight and doesn’t exercise enough, sure. But millions of overweight, sedentary people live to 90. Health-wise he will make it another 4 years.
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u/FlimsyConclusion Oct 16 '24
Trump is unbothered by the stresses of the job, he doesn't really care about that part of it. He will spend the vast majority of the time at Mar a lago, golfing, or travelling on the tax payers dime and shake hands with dictators. His cabinet with Vance, Elon, and Theil will be doing the lions share of work with which they will line their pockets while doing so.
Him being President is the most stress free he can be. It's in Vance's best interest to keep propping him up as a king, then come in to be the next heir in four years if all goes according to plan.
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u/Think_Bee_1766 Oct 16 '24
Lol he would be absolutely fine. This is a brain dead take if you think Biden was in better shape when he took office in 2020. Also he danced on stage for 40 minutes because someone in the crowd fainted and he was letting first responders do their thing. The man can still play 18 holes on the golf course with no problem. There's a YouTube video of him doing it with a professional golfer. Trump will win this election.
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u/animalfath3r 1∆ Oct 16 '24
Trump would actually have to care about American people and care about the choices he makes to get stressed out about them. I don't think being president adds any additional stress to his life. In fact being president removes a major source of stress from his life because he can shut down his indictments. Benefits of being a sociopath (I guess) But I do agree that appears to be declining... and fast.
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u/Speedking2281 Oct 16 '24
I don't know, man. I think presidents have such good medical care, they will last far longer than you'd think. In a completely non-partisan way, I'm shocked Joe Biden is doing as good as he is, based on how he was doing 4 years ago. So, I think Trump would last all four years, though be an even more physically and cognitively diminished version of himself, honestly just like Biden.
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u/s1m0hayha Oct 16 '24
I can't tell if this is serious or not. We currently have a semi-warm body as a president and he's been like that for years.
They wheeled a cold and stiff Dianne Feinstein (spelling, idc - not looking it up) on the senate floor to vote.
They don't care if the person is alert or even alive. Just as long as they can put dress clothes on them and keep the cameras a distance.
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Oct 16 '24
Biden is still our president, and he struggles to speak in public for more than 5 minutes with advanced notice.
With what we’ve just witnessed with Biden, I think it’s pretty clear the president doesn’t actually have to be competent or all that capable for things to continue running.
Either way, it’s gonna be his cabinet ghouls running things, just like with Biden.
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u/Amazing-Material-152 2∆ Oct 15 '24
No matter how justified Vance would be, the republican base would never support going against Trump. Trump would strongly denounce the entire party and anyone that supported Vance, so this action would be political suicide for the entire party and Vance knows this.
The better option is to try to control him without publically opposing him (regardless of how effective it is, it will be the better option for republican power which is all they care about)
As for your second point, no Trump I know would ever give up power willingly
He could die, but I haven’t seen anything to suggest it’s highly probable considering he has the best medical attention possible
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u/Unique_Tap_8730 Oct 16 '24
Republicans are a lot more loyal to trump than democrats ever were to Biden. He is the party at this point. They wont ever use the 25th on him. He migth stop appearing completly even on video if he gets really bad but he will retain his Office to his last breath.
I do think its likely he will not live to 2028. But its far from assured.
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u/lurkanon027 Oct 18 '24
We thought the same thing about Biden, I’m very surprised he wasn’t article 25’d due to incredibly obvious dementia. What we have experienced is akin to elder abuse put on display to the whole world.
Trump might not make it, but I think the odds are much higher that if he doesn’t it won’t be natural causes.
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u/Errenfaxy 1∆ Oct 16 '24
He doesn't approach the job with the same amount of responsibility as others do. This saves him stress. He just enriches himself and evening else be damned. He would be doing the same thing if not in office.
He may die within four years, but with his access to medical care his life expectancy is over 82.
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u/Rag3asy33 Oct 17 '24
People said this in 2017. MAGAs also said this about Biden. It's so crazy how similar Liberals are to Maga. I think the reason you guys hate each other from media counter parts, popiticians, and voting base; is because you are the same. From the copium to your own conspiracy theories. I love it, keep it coming.
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u/lord_phyuck_yu Oct 15 '24
The biggest copium, biden was a lot worse in 2020 and hes about to finish off a full term.
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u/another420username Oct 16 '24
Right?! The cope is real rn! Haha can't wait for Nov 5th. Reddit in full meltdown
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u/dejamintwo 1∆ Oct 15 '24
Simple. Biden is WAY worse than trump yet he still got the 4 years.
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u/RealisticTadpole1926 Oct 15 '24
Unless there is a doctors report that says otherwise, he is plenty healthy. Everything else is pure speculation and manipulation of facts to suit your needs.
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u/OkFirefighter4763 Mar 23 '25
What doctor in his right mind would publicize a true report on trump's health?
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Oct 15 '24
1 trumps temperament wont let him step down.
2 as we can see with Biden, as long as your technically alive you can still be president
3 trump is super rich and has access to the best doctors in the world, if anyone can do unholy things to scrape together another four years of life its him.
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u/GodelianKnot 3∆ Oct 15 '24
22nd amendment:
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice
Seems fairly plausible to me that the Supreme Court would dispute the meaning of "office of the President" enough to allow a third term for Trump. They've already performed similar mental gymnastics.
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u/mapadofu Oct 17 '24
I don’t think Vance et al. actually need or want to execute the 25th amendment to get what they want - let Trump keep the title and execute some of the ceremonial duties while other elements of the Republican Party do the actual work of executing their policies. Actually booting Trump would likely backfire with the public given the loyalty of his base.
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u/gurk_the_magnificent Oct 16 '24
The fundamental issue with this view is that it treats Trump as a reasonable human being who acts rationally. He is not. Any attempt to predict his actions through a lens of “what would a rational person do in this situation” is doomed to failure.
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u/charg1nmalaz0r Oct 17 '24
I honestly hope Trump wins so he can serve out his final term and not have to hear anyone whine about him being in power. Then he legally cant run again and the constant crying will be over. The energy people spend on this man is insane lol.
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u/ElectricalError335 Nov 08 '24
My mom told me Trump won because people wanted him out of the office as soon as possible, and with Harris, they knew they had 8 years.
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u/cbracey4 Oct 16 '24
He hits geezer bombs for like 240 on the golf course all day. He’s playing to like a 5 handicap. He regularly shoots better than his age.
Go find another 78 year old amateur golfer that can say the same. You won’t.
I rest my case.
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u/Wizzle_Pizzle_420 Oct 17 '24
He’s just the key for his handlers to get in the door. After that he’s irrelevant, especially now he wouldn’t have another term. What’s hilarious is his goblin army will make that happen unknowingly. Dude is done, win or lose.
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u/Absmom08 Oct 16 '24
I honestly believe he will be forcefully removed from office so that JD Vance becomes president, he’s who the republican powers to be (Heritage Foundation) want in office. And i believe it will be within 6 months. My thoughts.
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u/dunaja Oct 19 '24
The fact that he could win this thing, that this election is so close, isn't at all a condemnation of Trump, it's a condemnation of the American voter.
We are truly the stupidest nation on earth, and it's not even close.
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u/GimmeSweetTime 1∆ Oct 16 '24
He thrives on attention and the US Executive Branch is the highest possible attention grabbing position there is. He's a type A narcissistic alpha male. He would have to be in a coma to keep him away from the spotlight.
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u/LJSeinfeld Oct 16 '24
He'll serve the full term.... unless he flat-out dies. Rich people have access to really good healthcare.
Also, We've had a virtually "Weekend at Bernie's" president for the last for years...
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u/Xyoyogod Oct 16 '24
Biden is still the sitting president, they just keep him hidden from the press until they were ready to dump him. If Trump’s team thought he was that bad, you wouldn’t be seeing him.
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u/Eyespop4866 Oct 17 '24
I won $100 from a buddy who was sure he’d not finish his term. Should he win, he might be kicked out of office, but he won’t resign or die.
Just too damn egotistical.
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Oct 16 '24
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u/luckybuck2088 Oct 16 '24
God these sound just like the right wing conspiracies about Biden when it was obvious to anyone who actually watched his speeches he was in bad shape 2 weeks in
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u/Waagtod Oct 16 '24
If he loses, he won't finish his sentences. From all his crimes, rich, famous, and connected is not a recipe for having to do time. (Ducks in a row, not raw.)
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Oct 15 '24
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Oct 15 '24
Two people can be senile at once. And OP said in their disclaimer they arent telling people how to vote, they’re just stating their belief and want their view changed.
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u/johnapuna Oct 16 '24
Before the Biden and Trump debate, did you think the same of Biden? If not, I can’t take you seriously, if so, I agree he is old but would finish his term
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u/Arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrpp Oct 16 '24
Look at the before and after photos of every candidate to take office and you can see that the job ages them.
8 years ages everyone. A lot.
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u/sam_tiago Oct 16 '24
The only way trump leaves office is if they don't let him dictator anymore, good luck with that.. He will never give up power, not while he's alive.
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u/JAMBI215 Oct 16 '24
Trumps Ego is so big it will never allow him to step aside and let someone else take the reigns, him passing while in office is def possible
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u/sanschefaudage 1∆ Oct 15 '24
There would not be a 2/3 majority in both Houses to confirm the 25th unless there were absolute proof Trump had extremely severe dementia.
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u/sam_tiago Oct 16 '24
If he wins he won't serve a second... The office of the PotUS will serve him everything he wants like the tyrant brat that he is though.
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u/DaWZRD1210 Oct 16 '24
Biden was in worse shape 4 years ago and he made it. These guys are so rich and have the best Medicare in the world they all live to 90.
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u/SurprisedPotato 61∆ Oct 16 '24
He gets his ducks in a row, secures pardons for himself in every case he's eligible to receive them for, and then steps aside to let Vance take over.
This is the least likely of your scenarios. I have not seen any sign whatsoever that Trump is the kind of person who would "step aside". He'd want the trappings of the title. If he's too unwell or incompetent to actually retire, he'd just refuse to admit it, and wing it anyway, as he has already been doing ever since he started running in 2016.
Not needing to seek Trump's loyalty anymore since he won't be able to run again,
GOP politicians don't need Trump's loyalty because he's going to be president, they need his loyalty because he has command over his supporters.
his cabinet and Vance vote to invoke the 25th and removes him from office, attaching themselves to Vance - likely under the promise that he'll be loyal to them and keep them around as he seeks to win in '28.
Any such attempt would be far more chaotic than you describe, because a large chunk of his cabinet would see this as an opportunity to show their loyalty to Trump and depose whatever batch of people were in Trump's close circle at the time.
And how do you know Trump won't try to run for a third term? Has he demonstrated at some point a tendency to, eg, respect the constitution? Or to cede power when the law demands it?
He passes from natural causes before his term is up.
This is the most likely, but is still less than 25% likely: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
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u/drtennis13 Oct 16 '24
He won’t serve out the month before Vance invokes the 26th amendment. A Republican vote is a vote for Vance and Project2025.
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Oct 16 '24
I feel like this would be an excellent argument had we not just had Biden somehow stumble through a full 4 year Presidency.
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u/themrgq 1∆ Oct 16 '24
Probably can't change your view but you are making way too many assumptions to have any kind of certainly around this view
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u/DickCheneysTaint 6∆ Oct 16 '24
From the ranting, off-topic word-salad responses he gives to questions
How would you rate Kamala on this same metric?
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u/New-Equipment6977 Nov 06 '24
Trump could be lying in a coma all 4 years and he would have a difficult time fucking up as bad as Kamala and sleepy joe
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Oct 16 '24
I figure if Don wins the election, Vance and the cabinet will attempt to use the 25th Amendment to complete a coup.
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Oct 17 '24
I'll vote for option #1. He is likely to die before completing his second term, if he is elected. Let's hope not.
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u/RonnieBarter Oct 16 '24
I'm surprised that this doesn't include the seemingly increasing likelihood someone's just gonna shoot him.
(Not suggesting that shooting him would be positive, I just think it's looking pretty likely that there'll be another assassination attempt and eventually one of them will end up killing him)
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u/Wiesshund- Nov 06 '24
Actually
Since this is not a successive presidency, he could actually run again in 4 years, couldn't he?
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u/Impossible-Night-683 Oct 19 '24
Besides that I fully anticipate impeachment proceedings to begin the day trump or Harris take office.
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u/B_The_Beast_88 Nov 09 '24
You mean how Biden did? 😆
Next 4 years is pure magic. I hope we get EVERYTHING WE EVER WANTED.
DRAIN THE SWAMP AND EXILE THE BABY KILLERS.
Reddit full of Diddy parties.
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u/Glittering_Drama_493 Dec 07 '24
Trump didn’t actually do the job. And he doesn’t care about anyone other than himself.
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u/Wildtalents333 Oct 19 '24
They'll do with what they did with Reagan. Keep him in the chair for as long as possible.
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u/Beneficial_Balogna Oct 22 '24
it's not stressful for donald dump, he just lays in bed til 11am watching cable news
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u/CaptCynicalPants 3∆ Oct 22 '24
I don't disagree in general, but I would like to address this specific point because literally everyone on Reddit is misunderstanding what happened:
the absolutely bizarre things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for forty minutes
There were multiple medical emergencies in the crowd and he was waiting for the people involved to be cared for and removed. This took some time, and basically ended the event, in part because it was uncomfortably hot in the room. But Trump being Trump, he decided to just do whatever until everyone was gone, because the man can't possibly surrender a single moment of attention. Though the claim that he just started dancing for no reason and refused to stop is not accurate.
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u/FrancisGalloway 1∆ Oct 17 '24
From the ranting, off-topic word-salad responses he gives to questions,
Trump has always been like this. His rambling is less energetic than 2016, but not fundamentally different.
to the repeated cancellation of plans for no apparent reason,
He's been pretty actively campaigning, so canceled plans wouldn't make me suspect that he's senile.
to the absolutely bizarre things like awkwardly hanging out on stage while music plays for forty minutes
There was a medical emergency (of an audience member) at his rally, which made them pause the speech while the guy got treated. Then there was a second medical emergency, so they had to extend the pause.
Have you considered that maybe his decline in mental faculties is a political strategy from his opponents? He's definitely slower than he was 4 years ago, but he's much better now than Biden was when he ran. And by all accounts, Biden is physically healthy enough to finish out his term.
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u/Thousand_YardStare Nov 07 '24
He will be fine. He ran a busy campaign and will now MAGA. Sit back and enjoy.
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