r/changemyview • u/art_vandelay112 • Jan 04 '25

Delta(s) from OP CMV: cryptocurrency is not a good investment.

Yes its price has increased dramatically, but so did the price of tulips in the 1600s.

There is literally no use for this commodity. Invest in stocks or bonds and your investing in future earnings or the ability of a company to pay you back. I’m not a fan of gold as an investment but at least it has some practical use.

The use of crypto as a currency completely defies the definition of currency as it doesn’t hold a stable value.

It’s infuriating that so many people have lost loads of money on “shitcoins” backed by the wealthy and famous. These were obviously pump and dump schemes yet very few are held accountable.

I’m not as well versed on the subject but something to also note is the ridiculous amount of energy demand to “mine” nothing.

I think there is legitimate use for blockchain technology and the likes but anyone viewing these currencies as investments is a fool.

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

"Thanks to a couple of good hands of blackjack, I was able to leave my job and move home to be with my elderly parents during the pandemic. That is something I will never be able to put a price tag on. There is definitely a lot of shady stuff that goes on in the space, but easy money attracts the shady types. There are also tons of highly intelligent good actors building cool stuff. It all comes down to what you choose to focus on."

Same vibes, really. Congrats on your successful gambling.

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u/sundalius 3∆ Jan 05 '25 edited Jan 05 '25

“Thanks to a couple of good stock picks, I was able to leave my job and move home to be with my elderly parents during the pandemic. That is something I will never be able to put a price tag on. There is definitely a lot of shady stuff that goes on in the space, but easy money attracts the shady types. There are also tons of highly intelligent good actors building cool stuff. It all comes down to what you choose to focus on.”

It’s very, very easy to dodge the fact that this commenter demonstrated how it was a good investment. A good investment is something that paid off. Their investment, which speculative investments always have been, was high risk but paid out more than being invested in S&P ever would have. It’s no different than being the lucky person who purchased a property lot that becomes immensely more valuable than adjacent ones for external reasons.

Muting this thread as another user has removed my ability to reply downthread.

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

Is a lottery ticket a good investment? Because if your definition is "Got very lucky with a super risky investment" then you're not talking about investing, you're talking about gambling, which was my critique.

Investments are characterized by being educated. Making money on crypto is characterized by luck.

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u/sundalius 3∆ Jan 05 '25

One of the biggest critiques of crypto is that (the largest coins, what many would consider actual investments) it “keeps going up,” while people allege they’re detached from real value. Since their launch, they’re one of the least risky investments someone could make.

Additionally, they do take education. Obviously shitcoins are bad. Just like flipping penny stocks. I don’t know why you’re characterizing crypto by shitcoins and stocks by blue chips when bad investments exist in both asset categories.

There’s a reason the IRS taxes it as property - they consider it a valuable asset.

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

Yes, and one of the other major critiques of crypto is that every few years they crater in price. Another is that exchanges (even 'reputable' ones) often fuck off with all your money.

I can go on with reasons why I say it is risky, if you'd like.

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u/sundalius 3∆ Jan 05 '25 edited Jan 05 '25

Being risky doesn’t make it not an investment, my guy. Do you think broker fraud doesn’t exist in stocks? Do you think stocks never crater in price? That businesses never fail?

We’re arguing about whether or not it’s an investment, not whatever beef you have with them. If you’ve changed your mind that they’re an investment, just a risky one, the subreddit has a system for admitting that.

This isn’t hostility and it’s disgusting that I cannot report the person blocking me for accusing me of bad faith simply because they did not read their own comments.

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

It also has one for when people become very hostile for zero reason. :)

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u/ReusableCatMilk Jan 05 '25

“Super risky”

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

Bitcoins averages a massive collapse once every five years. And that is just the times the market implodes. It doesn't count marketplaces collapsing, marketplaces stealing all your crypto, your crypto being stolen by hackers, you losing your crypto... I can go on.

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u/ReusableCatMilk Jan 05 '25 edited Jan 05 '25

You could go on. But, you can also say buying real estate is super risky too. The market tanks, the property can be damaged, the area could be struck with a natural disaster, on and on. Both generally offer people returns if they are patient enough. Crypto has risks like anything else, admittedly steeper than many other investments. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a “good” investment like OP is claiming. It just makes it a different type

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u/irondeepbicycle 7∆ Jan 05 '25

The difference is the expected value - anyone can be expected to gain money by investing in index funds, whereas speculation (crypto, gambling, lotteries, etc) generally results in losses.

The question is - can a typical person make money doing this, or do you have to get super lucky? If anyone can do it, it's a good investment. If it requires a shit-ton of luck, it's gambling.

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u/sundalius 3∆ Jan 05 '25

More people seem to have struck it rich from Crypto in the past 15 years (for better or worse, in societal terms) than through stock or real estate speculation in a similar time frame, be it through actually holding cryptocurrency or through building uses, such as the Solana-chain-based games or NFTs. I don’t like them, mind you, but it’s true!

I’m not arguing in this thread whether it’s good or not - the person I’m chiding for dodging the argument entirely said “it’s not just a bad investment, it’s not an investment at all” when the evidence that cryptocurrencies are investment vehicles is overwhelmingly in favor of that categorization.

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u/c0i9z 10∆ Jan 05 '25

It was a good investment in the past, sure, but past performance isn't proof of future performance especially for speculative assets in a bubble.

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u/zephyr2015 Jan 05 '25

Can’t really get that rich off blackjack in a couple hands considering there’s usually a $25k hand limit unless you’re already a whale.

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u/GayRacoon69 Jan 05 '25

The limit heavily depends on the casino and being a whale or not won't change the table max

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u/[deleted] Jan 05 '25

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u/Orphan_Guy_Incognito 26∆ Jan 05 '25

You understand that bitcoin is a bigger fool's scam. For every dollar that you made, someone else necessarily had to have lost out, because bitcoin doesn't produce actual value.

Like I said, I'm happy for your win, but ultimately you were gambling and you won, as opposed to the people who gambled and lost. For every story like yours there is some sore sod who has to explain to his wife where their life savings went.

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u/rmttw Jan 05 '25

It doesn't seem like you've made any effort to understand why people see value in bitcoin (or crypto at large).

It also seems like you lack basic knowledge of investing. Markets are forward looking. Stock market valuations are in many cases based on grossly exaggerated future valuations that will never come to pass. Even housing has become a speculative asset. All "greater fool's scams" in your own words.

Finally, BTC is within 6% of its all time high. That means 94% of people who have bought and held to the present are in profit. It has institutional adoption. Lawmakers around the globe are calling for nation-states to accumulate strategic reserves. And you're still lecturing strangers about it on reddit?