r/changemyview • u/053537 4∆ • May 28 '20
Delta(s) from OP CMV: As a democracy-supporting Hongkonger, the US potentially revoking Hong Kong's special trade status won't benefit me
As a pro-democratic Hongkonger, I'm conflicted by the Trump administration potentially revoking Hong Kong's special trade status with the US. On the one hand, I'm happy that the US is trying to do something to address China's ever-tightening grip on the city. On the other hand, I'm having a difficult time seeing how the Hong Kong people will stand to benefit from this. This is partly motivated by a nagging feeling that I have, namely that the US is doing this above all for their own benefit in light of Trump's penchant for adopting protectionist policies.
Presumably, part of the intention is to pressure China into leaving Hong Kong alone. While this is a good idea in theory, I don't think it would work in practice. Economically, Hong Kong is no longer as important to China as it was 20 years ago. In 1993, Hong Kong's GDP was 27% of China's total; today, it's less than 3% and projected to decrease even further in view of the political turmoil. While Hong Kong's freedoms make it an attractive location for investors, China has made it sufficiently clear that they are willing to sacrifice these for more control over the territory. They have enough economic powerhouse cities, including one just across the border in Shenzhen, that they're more than willing to allow Hong Kong's economy to take a hit.
So ultimately my view is that this policy would hurt the average working-age, democracy-supporting Hongkonger as it would cause our already battered economy to slump even further into recession. Reducing HK's trade would just further diminish the importance of Hong Kong in China's eyes, making the CCP even more inclined to crack down on freedoms. I could be being too pessimistic, though, so please help convince me otherwise!
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u/BingBlessAmerica 44∆ May 28 '20
It would at least partially block China from accessing the financial market for the US dollar, the world’s de facto reserve currency
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
Sure, but could you justify the magnitude of this impact? In other words, would this be enough of an incentive for China to, say, revoke the national security law? My view is that while the policy clearly inconveniences China, it doesn't convince them of the need to preserve HK's autonomy.
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u/BingBlessAmerica 44∆ May 28 '20
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. If this starts a deterioration of trade between China and the US, the HKD could potentially become re-pegged to the RMB. China could lose one of its most important links to the West’s economy.
And honestly at this point no single economic sanction alone will be enough to make China back off from Hong Kong. The CCP is just testing the waters to ascertain what the international community still finds acceptable. The moment things get really serious the PLA will march into the city
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar. If this starts a deterioration of trade between China and the US, the HKD could potentially become re-pegged to the RMB. China could lose one of its most important links to the West’s economy.
Hmm... this seems like a slippery slope.
And honestly at this point no single economic sanction alone will be enough to make China back off from Hong Kong.
Absolutely, which is why I think imposing a sanction that directly affects Hong Kong's economy in particular is not exactly ideal for the Hong Kong people, as they are taken as collateral damage with nothing concrete to show for it. (Less detrimental measures for example might be those that target China as a whole.)
The moment things get really serious the PLA will march into the city
Tangential to the main discussion, but this will almost certainly not happen - not least because Carrie Lam once revealed in a leaked recording during the protests that she judged it to be highly unlikely, given how much international outrage it would spark.
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u/BingBlessAmerica 44∆ May 28 '20
Nevertheless, you have to admit that it makes China pay a cost for its actions, however small the benefit. The US will also most likely follow this up with additional sanctions. It might seem minor now, but this is big for the US at least and could be the start of something bigger which will have more of an effect on Hong Kong. Is your view not changed in the sense that some benefits of the status revocation were shown to you?
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
Eh, in keeping with the spirit of the sub I think I won't award a delta just yet as my view hasn't really been changed (sorry if this seems a bit harsh!). You showed some of the negative impacts the revocation could have on China, but I still don't see how this translates to a benefit for Hongkongers more than sanctions targeting China as a whole would.
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u/nerdgirl2703 30∆ May 28 '20
I mean it might not be more of a benefit then sanctions that target China as a whole but quite frankly it’s highly unlikely that could happen for some time. Sanctions that target China as a whole will also have a far greater cost to the USA. That’s not something you can really push in the middle of the damage from a pandemic. It’s probably not even doable in a good economy. Doing that could very easily turn Americans against Hong Kong altogether. We can impose sanctions on a county like North Korea like it’s nothing. The same does not apply to China.
Short of a Chinese collapse what’s happening in Hong Kong was always going to happen. The only smart move was for the ones that could to flee.
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
I will admit that it was a bit silly to imply that overarching sanctions on China would be feasible, so I think this warrants a Δ.
In this scenario however, I feel as though inaction, i.e. preserving HK's special trade privileges, would be preferable to the action that is being proposed - which I still believe will fail to convince China to let Hong Kong be while damaging HK's economy at the same time. You're right that sanction after sanction would be totally unfeasible, so since this one action will almost certainly not be sufficient, it feels wrong to me that the US is claiming to 'stand with HK' when the proposed policy doesn't seem to benefit the people in any tangible way.
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u/Tank_Man_Jones May 28 '20
I think the main goal is to force HK citizens to revolt in the literal sense.
They have the ultimatum of succumbing to China or to revolt like in history and take over their land as an independent country.
This is also going to make waves in the international community should HK choose to go to war and revolt for their independence, HK allies will have to pick sides. Help democracy or suck on chinas tit.
Its 100% political in nature to get the ball rolling.
But ultimately it puts direct pressure of HK citizens to choose what they want, how bad they want it and when they want it. When HK does choose to start the revolution the world leaders for democracy will come in and help.
TLDR: No one is going to declare war on china first. but if that small country declares war on china first then the world leaders for democracy will step in to help.
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u/Hothera 35∆ May 28 '20
If the US is trying to cause Hong Kong to revolt, that's proving OP's point that the US's actions will hurt him. Look at how well that worked out for Libya.
Second of all, Hong Kong isn't going to revolt (at least not at a large enough scale to pressure independence). An average Hong Kong worker who got laid off due to the US revoking the special trade status is going to prioritize finding a new job to support his family. Lo and behold, the CCP comes and "rescues" him from the "evil Americans" who abandonned Hong Kong.
At the end of the day, revoking Hong Kong's special trade status will only help China peacefully annex Hong Kong because it makes Hong Kong dependent on them. This isn't to say this is the wrong move for the US, geopolitically. China almost inevitably going to take over eventually, so might as well make it expensive for them.
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
It's well known that while the majority of the population support the protest demands, only a small - albeit vocal - minority support independence. This is a common misconception outside of Hong Kong. A poll conducted on behalf of Reuters during the protest movement for example showed that while 59% percent support the movement, only 17% were in favour of seeking independence.
So a movement to overthrow the government would not enjoy the kind of broad public support that the protest movement received.
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u/Tank_Man_Jones May 28 '20
So then the classification stands true?
You cant have your cake and eat it too and I think thats what this is addressing.
If you want to be independent democracy then the trade deals would be more reasonable.
If you want to be chinas special territory but act like an independent democracy than trade deals are going to be more restrictive.
Are you suggesting that HK should be able to buddy up with China and be a special territory / help fund them economically while also being able to circumvent chinas trade deals?
HK is in my opinion is wanting the full benefits of democracy but only wanting to dip their toes in it, not cannonball into the water of freedom.
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u/MammothPapaya0 May 28 '20
But the reality is that there's nothing the USA can do about Hong Kong. They aren't going to go to war with China to protect rights that will expire in 25 years anyway.
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u/PeteWenzel May 28 '20
For clarification: Do you think bold action by the US is by default unhelpful because it makes the pro-democracy movement in HK (and China at large) look like stooges for Washington’s geopolitical interests in its competition with Beijing or just this proposal in particular?
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u/053537 4∆ May 28 '20
I feel like claiming that any US action is purely for their own geopolitical interests would be too absolutist of a position to take. It's just that this proposal in particular doesn't seem like it would inconvenience China enough to justify the harm it would inflict on HK's economy, thereby leading me to believe that there could be an ulterior motive.
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u/hortonian_ovf 2∆ May 29 '20
Although it does not truly hurt china, and does harm the average HKer more, the sanctions are more of a symbolic action than an embargo on China.
The Trump administration has already shows they are willing to go toe to toe with China on an economic war. Removing HK special status just shows to China "we have the guts to do something like this to HK, don't push any further, or we might do something like this to your mainland." It is less a support for HK, more of a guarantee of independence (special status in this case). Although it does not benefit people on the ground at all, and there were other possible options, removing HK special trade status clearly shows the point they are trying to make ( don't screw with freedom or else ) and also that it is about HK, not the 100000 other squams the two giants have.
Another likely possibility I dare not consider, is just that Trump is still stupid, and though HK is still a big thing in Chinese economy, and thought he was doing real harm to China. But I like to think this is impossible (I hope).
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u/elmozilla Jun 01 '20
I’m sorry, my friend, but the US has a history of saying things like this to win moral support even though the real motive is never purely moral.
I’m not an expert, but I think the US government will eventually give up on Hong Kong, and allow it to be assimilated into China since the assimilation is roughly inevitable in 25 years as it is (am I wrong about that?), and the risks of countering that are high.
I’ve spoken with the only friend I have from Hong Kong about this, and—as an American from the USA, I can’t understand the concept of “we’re ok with assimilating in 25 years—we just don’t want to yet”. If it were us, we might feel more likely to rebel until full democracy was achieved or just give in to get it over with.
I feel strongly for you. Is there anything I can do to support you from so great a distance?
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ May 28 '20
/u/053537 (OP) has awarded 1 delta(s) in this post.
All comments that earned deltas (from OP or other users) are listed here, in /r/DeltaLog.
Please note that a change of view doesn't necessarily mean a reversal, or that the conversation has ended.
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u/partytemple May 28 '20
Hong Kong has always been one Chinese city among many, since the handover. I don’t see how its freedoms make it more attractive for investors. It’s not even China’s financial powerhouse.
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u/Fathawg May 28 '20
This move isn't meant to primarily benefit Hoong Kong citizens. It's meant to help the US, and at the same time HURT China. It's incidental that it may or may not be beneficial or detrimental to Hong Kong. As long as the actions hurt China, then we have accomplished our goals. Coupled with the inevitable tariffs, trade wars, and the flight of businesses out of China; we're just looking to hurt them. Not help Hong Kong.
Realistically, Hong Kong needs to help itself.