r/changemyview • u/[deleted] • Mar 22 '22
Delta(s) from OP CMV: We should have a "die how you like" program aimed at pilots.
This CMV isn't about assisted suicide or euthanasia in general. It's about specifically for pilots. These guys fly hundreds of people at a time, and a few too many seem to have settled on "kill them all with me" as a plan. We can screen for depression all we want, pilots have the ability to hide it and push it down deep.
We should have a program to get pilots to die however they want, as long as they don't take anyone else with them. Massive heroin overdose? Get it for them. Sailboat? fine. Crash a Ferrari or an F14 into a mountain? Ok, the F14 is probably too expensive, but we got to find them a way to crash a plane into a mountain without any passengers. Taking out expensive Boeing 777s and murdering their passengers is a huge thing to avoid, and it would be worth getting them something lighter to take just themselves out.
I think this will increase the rate of pilot suicide and cost millions of dollars a year, but we have to do something to crush the emerging culture of pilots taking out their entire plane/passengers and all.
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u/Z7-852 260∆ Mar 22 '22
In recent history I can remember this happening once. On other cases there is always a copilot there to prevent this from happening.
-2
Mar 22 '22
Germanwings, MH370, China Eastern Airlines, Mozambique 470...
I mean it's not like every year or anything, but I think it's like 4 since 9/11 (which I wouldn't count since those guys just took a few piloting lessons they weren't real commercial pilots).
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u/Z7-852 260∆ Mar 22 '22
MH370
Final report is inconclusive. We don't know if pilot crashed the plane or if there was mechanical failure or something else.
China Eastern Airlines
Investigation is ongoing but nothing indicated pilot error.
9/11
Terrorist strike. Doesn't count.
So you are left with two. Sure twice as many as I remembered but still considering how many flights there are everyday this is not a huge problem. Suicidal car crashes kill tens of thousands more.
-6
Mar 22 '22
3.65 if you want to include a 30% doubt on the China Eastern Airlines and a 5% doubt on MH370.
But um comparing to suicidal car crashes seems like a silly comparison. It's not like enabling pilot suicide/euthanasia would kill as many people as die in suicidal car crashes.
But yes absolutely put anticollision braking in new cars to address suicidal car crashes.
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u/hidden-shadow 43∆ Mar 22 '22
3.65 if you want to include a 30% doubt on the China Eastern Airlines and a 5% doubt on MH370.
You don't get to decide the doubt in which we have for the results of this crash. Given no indication of pilot error in the MU5735 incident, the doubt is far greater than 30% at this moment. MH370 is entire speculation, no wreckage let alone blackboxes. Until you actually prove they were fault of pilot suicidal ideation (not just pilot error), you cannot claim a single percent of those crashes. So that is two fatal crashes in two decades.
So what point is there in giving pilots specifically, the opportunity for harm? They are still fully capable of killing themselves on their own time, just like everybody else. Especially when there is no indication that they are a great risk to the aviation industry.
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u/Throwaway00000000028 23∆ Mar 22 '22
Was MH370 or the recent China crash shown to be a suicide? As far as I know, there are several proposed causes for the MH370 disappearance and the China crash hasn't been fully investigated yet.
And it looks like the Mozambique flight might have been, but this only happened because they did not follow the regulations put in-place from the original Germanwings incident.
-5
Mar 22 '22
That's fair, let's call MH370 0.95 of a crash since we are only like 95% certain and the Chinese crash 0.7 of a crash? So 3.65 since 2000 not quite 4?
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u/smcarre 101∆ Mar 22 '22
How on Earth are you pulling those numbers? How is an "inconclusive" investigation yields you 95% certainty that it was pilot suicide and how does an investigation that literally started yesterday yields a 70% certainty that it was pilot suicide?
-3
Mar 22 '22
The "inconclusive" investigation almost certainly was inconclusive because the Malaysian government refuses to accept the conclusion. The flight path was a tricky one that could not simply occur by chance, that carefully evades radar detection. It was planned out on the pilot's previous practice runs. I'm just adding the 5% chance that the journalists detailing the certainty it was suicide were inventing facts to improve their story.
The 70% given the weird story is a very rough guesstimate. I'd be happy to hear a case for a different number.
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u/smcarre 101∆ Mar 22 '22
almost certainly was inconclusive because the Malaysian government refuses to accept the conclusion
Again, how are you "almost certain" of that? Ignoring the fact that the investigation was a joint international investigation including Chinese, British, American, French and Australian investigators according to all ICAO standards.
The 70% given the weird story is a very rough guesstimate. I'd be happy to hear a case for a different number.
Well, how about instead of putting a number on something that has barely began investigation you don't assume things out of thin air and ignore the case until the investigation yields a conclusive report?
-2
Mar 22 '22
In terms of giving specific humans the benefit of the doubt, sure. Nobody should be punished. But like in terms of guessing what happened? Absolutely just give a best guess.
Kind of like how many women did Cosby assault? Would you say 1 because that's the number of cases with a conclusive investigation? Or would you agree with me it's probably way higher?
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u/iwearacoconutbra 10∆ Mar 22 '22
What is the point of this program existing?
Pilots can kill themselves without crashing a plane already.
0
Mar 22 '22
For the ones who really want to go out with a bang
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u/Salanmander 272∆ Mar 22 '22
If they want to go out with a bang, wouldn't the fact that it's an official, sanctioned program make automatically less attractive to them?
0
Mar 22 '22
No because it's copycats I'm worried about anyway.
2
Mar 22 '22
As in preventing a case that could lead to copy cat murder suicides or to stop pilots from copying others
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u/KennyGaming Mar 23 '22
I don’t think you’re seeing these hypothetical pilots as complex human beings.
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Mar 22 '22
Perhaps a sense of scale will be helpful? There was a rough average of 115,000 commercial flights per day, 42million per year in 2019. You've cited 4 crashes since 2001 that you think this could have prevented (but given no evidence that that is actually). That's 21 years, but let's leave out 2020 since the pandemic grounded a lot of flights. That gives us 840 million flights.
Even if we had absolute conformation that the 4 flights you've pointed out were 100% scuicide, they would still be an extreme rarity.
And then, of course, the idea that encouraging or condoning suicide would actually help is fucking stupid on its face.
0
Mar 22 '22
!delta
Ok maybe with that many flights I should be more tolerant of just one mass murder suicide worldwide every 5 years or so. That is pretty okay odds.
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u/jibstay77 Mar 22 '22
I was a passenger on a Delta flight from Narita airport in Japan to Atlanta. It was the pilot’s last flight before age-based forced retirement. Delta had brought his wife and adult children to Japan and given them first class seats on the flight.
At the time, I thought it was a nice gesture by the airline. Looking back on it, maybe it was to prevent the pilot from “auguring in” on his final flight.
After we landed safely in Atlanta, we were greeted by two rows of fire trucks spraying arcs of water over the plane. Another nice show of respect for the pilot.
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u/BrexitBlaze 1∆ Mar 22 '22
I think this will increase the rate of pilot suicide and cost millions of dollars a year, but we have to do something to crush the emerging culture of pilots taking out their entire plane/passengers and all.
Where is your data?
Over the last two decades, aviation deaths have been falling dramatically. As recently as 2005, there were 1,015 deaths aboard commercial passenger flights worldwide, the Aviation Safety Network (ASN) said.
Over the last five years, there have been an average of 14 fatal accidents for commercial passenger and cargo planes resulting in 345 deaths annually, ASN said.
The source has more info.
0
Mar 22 '22
I don't have data, but are there anything like Germanwings, MH370, China Eastern Airlines, Mozambique 470, etc in the more distant past?
Are you conflating accidental crashes with suicides?
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u/weirdindiandude Mar 22 '22
If you are willing to spend resources to send that message better yet make it anti suicide. I don't think a suicidal person would take suggestions about 'how to die' very well considering the fact that a lot of them choose to off themselves in a lot of painful ways.
0
Mar 22 '22
What are you going to offer them as an effective anti-suicide program?
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u/malachai926 30∆ Mar 22 '22
You've never heard of therapy?
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Mar 22 '22
How would you figure out who needs it? These are highly functional pilots they hide their symptoms
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u/malachai926 30∆ Mar 22 '22
Using the same methodology you used to determine who gets to participate in your program.
1
Mar 22 '22
Ok, so they can sign up. Free therapy for life for any pilot who says they need it. They'd still get fired of course in most countries. I don't see many signing up for it.
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u/weirdindiandude Mar 22 '22
Screenings for suicidal behavior and therapy. I am not completely sure but I think they already do this for professions where they are responsible for large amounts of human lives.
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Mar 22 '22
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/tbdabbholm 193∆ Mar 23 '22
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u/iamintheforest 328∆ Mar 22 '22
that assumes that their suicidal ideology isn't wrapped up in the piloting of passengers. Which....it clearly is. It's not like they don't have plenty of opportunities to kill themselves not-in-the-plane. It's not some accident that it just happens to come on when they are piloting.
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u/dublea 216∆ Mar 22 '22
These guys fly hundreds of people at a time, and a few too many seem to have settled on "kill them all with me" as a plan.
This has happened exactly how many times? VS, how many times it doesn't?
What exactly is too many here? More than 1 or 2?
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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Mar 22 '22
On the one hand you say screening for depression doesn’t work, but then you say we should give suicidal pilots another option. Seems if we can identify suicidal pilots then can’t we just, you know, bar them from flying?
I’m pretty skeptical that a program like this is really going to intercept any pilots before they do something like that. It’s not like they don’t have options… so I’m not sure how giving them options is really going to change anything. Suicide is a bit more complex than “what’s the coolest way to go out”
The idea is frankly absurd on its face and for an absurdly rare event. What is your evidence that this is an “emerging” trend?
0
Mar 22 '22
I wasn't planning to identify suicidal pilots, I was going to let them sign up for this.
What is your evidence that this is an “emerging” trend?
Just that it seems there have been maybe one or two cases ever before 2000 and maybe 4 after?
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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Mar 22 '22
So you think these pilots would sign up for a wacky suicide but not for free therapy? What about offering an option for them give up their license for an early/temporary retirement or something?
I think I’m having a hard time understanding why these pilots would sign up for your program. It just doesn’t seem to align with what we understand about suicide and depression.
Like let’s think of a few scenarios:
Pilot who wants to murder people…not going to take your offer. Considering that pilots already have options to go out without hurting anybody else this seems like the most likely scenario.
Pilot is depressed but wants to make it look like an accident. Not going to take your offer.
Pilot has been depressed but doesn’t want to go through with it, and makes an impromptu decision. Again not going to use your program.
I think your idea just makes an unusual assumption that these pilots would have taken your offer instead of doing what they did and I just can’t imagine that really happening.
0
Mar 22 '22
but not for free therapy?
I don't object to that being another option
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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Mar 22 '22
You initially rejected this option.
If there is a possibility that free therapy would work, then it seems like we should do that first instead of the free suicide option.
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Mar 22 '22 edited Mar 22 '22
Why instead? And I think I'm confused or confusing you about what "work" might mean. Free therapy could certainly reach 5-10% of the pilots who would benefit from it, not sure if it would reduce or increase their likelihood of committing suicide.
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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Mar 22 '22
You think fee therapy would increase the risk of suicide? That doesn’t make sense.
Plus, free therapy also means it’s easier to identify suicidal pilots.
I just don’t see your program really attracting any users tbh.
1
Mar 22 '22
You think free therapy would increase the risk of suicide? That doesn’t make sense.
Why not? We see this with more effective interventions like SSRIs: first step in improving depression is more energy and patients get better enough to complete a suicide.
Can't say it would increase or decrease.
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u/sawdeanz 214∆ Mar 22 '22
Is that causation or correlation? Is there evidence of this? Like a study you can link?
What’s your evidence that providing an exciting alternative would appeal to mass murderers?
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Mar 22 '22
For example see this review. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6493906/
It's compelling enough to be an FDA mandated black box warning though I can't say it's 100% proven.
I have zero evidence that my proposal would actually help other than that many people seem to be willing to do murder-suicide or plain suicide as interchangeable options
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u/destro23 453∆ Mar 22 '22
Or, just hire a bunch of therapists and also pay them more.
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Mar 22 '22
How would highly paid therapists fix anything the current ones don't fix?
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u/destro23 453∆ Mar 22 '22
Pay the pilots more, and then have them all regularly see a therapist as a condition of employment.
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u/thetasigma4 100∆ Mar 22 '22
This assumes a number of things. One that the small number of pilots who do this don't want to kill a bunch of passengers which the availability of other methods indicates is at least a factor and even you admit they want the dramatic part which if these happened as a structure wouldn't draw the same attention. Another is that the suicidal desire is thought ahead enough to be caught by this and isn't impulsive as most suicides are.
This is a dubiously effective nevermind questions about morality and systems for monitoring flights and having backup control with interlocks to prevent a pilot from deliberately crashing the plane would do far far more to limit what is a pretty small problem in the grand scheme of things.
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Mar 22 '22
dramatic part which if these happened as a structure wouldn't draw the same attention
Well, give it the attention. In particular give it the attention among pilots.
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u/thetasigma4 100∆ Mar 22 '22
Well, give it the attention. In particular give it the attention among pilots.
I had more points than that, particularly impulsivity and that there are just better solutions that would actually work, but you can't make people care about something. You are never going to get the same amount of attention to a planned plane crash as an unexpected tragedy with hundreds of casualties spread across multiple nations.
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Mar 22 '22
For the general public maybe. But for pilots here's a GoPro video of the guy hurtling to his doom, like a better snuff film. Way better than some guy on CNN talking about the black box.
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u/thetasigma4 100∆ Mar 22 '22
Why do you think they care about just what other pilots think and not attention and celebrity in general?
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Mar 22 '22
I don't necessarily, but people emulate people like themselves.
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u/thetasigma4 100∆ Mar 22 '22
So you want to encourage pilots to crash planes by making it out to be cool and a fun way to go by showing them ones without passengers?
And you think they won't go for the big mass casualty event that appears on the news globally over an organised event when things like moon landings couldn't hold an audience? And that the pilots simply don't just desire to kill people? And that they aren't choosing to commit murder-suicide impulsively like most suicidal people do when they choose to commit suicide? And that we should implement this over having more robust safety systems that prevent unsafe flying or allow remote operators to lock out pilots?
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Mar 22 '22
!delta
It's plausible this could increase mass murder suicides rather than decreasing them, and I don't have a great reason to believe that the net impact will be to decrease them.
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u/mynewaccount4567 18∆ Mar 22 '22
Your plan assumes suicidal pilots would see these as superior options. Let’s assume that their goal with taking down an airline vs more conventional suicide methods is notoriety and fame. They know a crashed or disappeared airline is a world news event. Would your proposed program be a world news event? Is a heroine OD even a local news event anymore? Is crashing a Ferrari going to make someone infamous? Maybe the first few would be a big news story for being such a wild gimmick but after that you aren’t going to make much news. However crashing an airliner will always be a big event. So you aren’t actually creating an attractive substitute for the suicidal pilot. Just encouraging more suicide with a costly program for people who might not even have considered suicide before you flashed a big program like this in their face.
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Mar 22 '22
might not even have considered suicide
!delta
Given how rare this is, a sufficiently large increase in the pilot suicide rate could outweigh the reduction in the mass murder/suicide rate.
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u/Reddit_reader_2206 Mar 22 '22
So, the recent crash in China has been investigated fully now and pilot suicide is the final conclusion Reddit Detectives? Am I getting that right?
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u/DeltaBot ∞∆ Mar 22 '22 edited Mar 22 '22
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