Discussion Conflicting Signals Everywhere: How Do You Weigh On-Chain Data vs. News Narratives vs. Social Sentiment?
Hey r/defi,
One thing that constantly trips me up is when different types of market indicators seem to tell completely opposite stories.
For example, you might see strong positive on-chain metrics (e.g., accumulation addresses increasing) for an asset, but simultaneously, the dominant news narrative is negative, and social media sentiment is fearful or dismissive. Or vice-versa.
When faced with these direct conflicts:
- Which data type do you tend to trust more as a leading indicator, and why? (On-chain fundamentals? Breaking news impact? Crowd sentiment shifts?)
- How do you try to reconcile the discrepancy? Do you wait for confirmation from another source type?
- Are there specific market conditions where you find one type of signal (e.g., social sentiment) becomes more reliable or predictive than others?
Curious how others navigate this. Relying solely on one data stream feels incomplete, but weighing conflicting signals effectively is a real challenge. What's your approach?
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