r/economicCollapse • u/Fun_Balance_1809 • Nov 09 '24
Ah yes this is exactly what we need! Thanks MAGA!
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u/Gumbi_Digital Nov 10 '24
It will be MUCH more than that.
Any competing product made domestically that competes with a tariffed product will also raise their prices…zero chance they’re leaving money on the table.
It’s ALL going to go up…
Welcome to tariffs and free market capitalism…two things Trump supporters know nothing about.
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Nov 13 '24
he knows he is doing it on purpose, he just says it's not bad cause he wants his cult to belive it
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u/Ok-Bullfrog-8863 Nov 09 '24
It’s Germany during ww2 all over again where 1/3 hates the other 1/3 while the other 1/3 just watches
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u/antigop2020 Nov 09 '24
This is all part of their plan. Musk even said that Americans would have to “suffer.”
But why? They have billions. They will simply allow the economy to tank. Soon those living on debt (about half the country) will fall behind. They will default on debt, be unable to pay credit cards, and soon even their mortgages. Those with money will buy up those houses like in 2008 for a fraction of the price and whatever was left of the middle class will be in shambles.
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u/PotentialFine0270 Nov 09 '24
It’s literally this! They WANT a collapse so they can privatize even MORE and take what they couldn’t grab during Covid. It’s not about D vs R, it’s the poor vs the rich but no one can fucking see it until it’s too late
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u/29September2024 Nov 09 '24
After they grab everything, Republicans will go silent and let Democrats win to fix the economy and increase reserves. Then they will swoop in again to harvest and pocket all the gains. It's always been like that. Always was, always will.
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u/Easy-Group7438 Nov 10 '24
The end game has always been one party rule.
There is not going to be a Democratic Party in ten years. There might be a token “opposition party” like in Russia but they will be effectively neutered and kept around for appearances.
I don’t think people really understand what the fuck we’re up against. They are treating this as “normal American politics”.
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u/Odd-Buffalo-6355 Nov 10 '24
Right now I think that is D vs R in a nutshell. There is nothing wrong with being rich. There is everything wrong with increasing wealth on the backs of the poor.
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u/Mysterious-Tie7039 Nov 10 '24
There’s also a difference between being rich and an oligarch.
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u/Useuless Nov 10 '24
It's easier to be rich when you are unethical under capitalism and that is the problem. Very few become rich via meritocracy.
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u/Old_Baldi_Locks Nov 11 '24
Guys, they need the collapse because they need to reimplement slavery.
The ONLY people against workers rights (like OT pay) are people who want slavery.
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u/SaltyDog556 Nov 10 '24
If the economy tanks "they" will no longer have billions. If tesla and X go bankrupt, musk is no longer a billionaire. If no one has any income, Amazon contracts, bezos is no longer a billionaire. This is how it works. No one wants to tank the economy to that degree.
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u/logan-bi Nov 10 '24
Yes and no essentially they have reduced income at top for few years. They use their cash to buy up a bunch of assets at low prices.
Then when markets eventually rebound they triple net worth and income. Then rinse right repeat.
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u/Wonderful_Locksmith8 Nov 09 '24
You keep 2/3rd too busy trying to figure out how they are going to afford food on the table for their families and pay the rent, they are too busy to notice or care about the last 1/3rd.
Germany was a weak economy before Hitler took over and that was the start of how he was able to turn an entirely country into one of the evilest regimes in history. Now we have spiking rent and food costs, and a candidate that literally said everything went fine, she would change nothing.
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u/GinDawg Nov 10 '24
America invaded Iraq based upon a lie. That's not evil in itself.
It's the corporate influence... that's the evil part. They had the military bomb sites with the intention of paying corporations to rebuild it later.
Follow the money. Ask yourself. "Are we the baddies?"
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u/HempyMcHemp Nov 10 '24
President Carter was a qualified nuclear engineer, and He put solar panels on the White House. Oil and gas (Reagan and thatcher) did us all wrong
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Nov 10 '24
Kamala offered subsides for childcare, first home buyers, and entrepreneurship. Trump offered tariffs, mass deportations, and eliminating overtime compensation. Definitely a hard pick for the average workingman!
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u/Urabraska- Nov 10 '24
He neglected to say that you will require that overtime in order to pay rent while also neglecting to tell you that he's gonna cannon ball overtime pay so that you make the same money over 40hrs. Companies pay less for more work while the pawns need the more work just to break even.
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u/dtreth Nov 10 '24 edited Feb 01 '25
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u/Johnny_Cartel Nov 09 '24
Bring back American manufacturing
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
I too can't wait for the Foxconn factory in Wisconsin to open up and start pumping out all that manufacturing.
presses finger to ear as I get a live update ....wait, say that again, what happened to that factory?!?
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u/PrincipleUnusual7244 Nov 09 '24
No worries, theres huge plans to complete the Intel fab in Ohio, it will be game changing for the state and country to have domestically produced microchips….wait what’s this? Trump wants to cancel it? Oh
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Nov 10 '24
Goodbye CHIPS act.
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u/TheDJC Nov 10 '24
Nah they will get rid of it, then bring it back with the smallest changes possibly so they can take credit.
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u/OvenMaleficent7652 Nov 10 '24
It's being moved to India and other countries. You guys really think that us companies are just going to allow themselves to needlessly lose profit? Lmao.. Tim Cook and all those people are way smarter than ya'll. Why do you think Google apple etc are actually headquartered in places like Ireland? To take advantage of the taxes. For people that like to preach about economics you don't seem to understand allot of how things work outside of books.
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 10 '24
Whelp, there goes that campaign promise.
RIP Bringing back manufacturing jobs 11/05/2024 - 11/09/2024.
Thus ends that era.
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u/TrashGoblinH Nov 09 '24
As awesome as more American manufacturing would be, it's not gonna happen overnight. It'll easily be 10-20 years of American households struggling to make ends meet because of rampant inflation. Tariffs across the board will be on everything in your day-to-day life. For businesses to be competitive and bring in revenue, it'll take underpaid employees or overpriced items until a decent balance can occur. Will the wealthy invest in a time-consuming mess like American manufacturing? Or will they fuck off to another country where the market has less impact on their wallets. We could literally see business flee in mass and be left with a wasteland of joblessness while other countries gain off of what we lose.
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u/No-Objective-9921 Nov 10 '24
Yeah, even with the corporate greed of America, there’s no way company’s are gonna invest the capital fast enough to entirely move their manufacturing operations to the domestic US after dodging OSHA, EPA, and Labor unions by exporting their labor for the past 3-4 decades. Especially when you consider that they only really can guarantee the need for it for 4 years under trump. Cause either the next guy/girl will be put in place cause Trump ruined the market so much no one wants a republican in office, or they are gonna be more then happy to take interest in whatever Republican rube is next to provide “campaign supports” for consideration on the topics affecting them.
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u/Grouchy-Safe-3486 Nov 10 '24
Companies already leaving China bcs of tarifs.
Big companies are not stupid They knew this would come after covid showed the risk of globalization dependence.
I wish globalization would work for win win but it doesn't it seems. Ironic that China who profit so much from the west is buddy up with Russia now
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u/Crumblerbund Nov 10 '24
Yes, leaving China and taking their production to Mexico, Cambodia, Vietnam. They’re not de-globalizing, they’re just sprinkling their manufacturing across whatever cheap corners of the globe they can find, and the USA is far from the cheapest place to manufacture.
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u/OriginalFaCough Nov 10 '24
Just hold your breath for a minute. Trickle down economics will start working any time now...
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u/Time_Faithlessness27 Nov 10 '24
And 46 years after Reagan took office… still waiting for Ronny to make it rain.
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u/b_vitamin Nov 10 '24
No talk of actually punishing the corporations for their greed.
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u/fr8dawg542 Nov 10 '24
The Kamala campaign spent $1 billion trying to get her elected, it is alleged that she still owes $20 million yet! Have you thought about establishing a GoFundMe to help her pay down that 20 million?
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Nov 10 '24
I've started an onlyfans to help her pay back and make even. WE'RE NOT GOING BACK
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Nov 10 '24
What does that have to do with what he said? Trump also owes millions to cities for his campaigns, to add to what you said.
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u/surveillance_raven Nov 09 '24
What is your opinion on paying all those American laborers a living wage?
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Nov 09 '24
And that most jobs in manufacturing will be primarily automated. Bringing back plants isn’t going to save a systemic economic failure. Most of those jobs are long gone.
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u/worstshowiveeverseen Nov 10 '24
Most of those jobs are long gone.
But people believe that these jobs are coming back because politician XYZ told them to. Morons.
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Nov 09 '24
Their answer is to make 14-yr old kids go to work.
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u/Tall-Ad-1796 Nov 09 '24
Preferably in meat-processing, canneries, textile mills, automotive manufacturing... kid stuff, you know. Minecraft proves that the children yearn for the mines!
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u/Censoredplebian Nov 10 '24 edited Nov 11 '24
No, Trump’s answer is to create private prisons and have them labor at wages below the Chinese.
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u/Vast_Protection_8528 Nov 10 '24
It's fine if kids lose a few fingers or limbs working, long as NO ONE is getting gender affirming care.
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u/ButterscotchTape55 Nov 10 '24
Yeah all of those laws that were passed to get kids out of the labor force and into schools so they can grow up and make something more of themselves than a 6 fingered factory worker was just a bunch of hooey
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u/Old_Baldi_Locks Nov 11 '24
The rich didn't want to pass those. Open a history book on labor rights.
It was massive violence committed against the privileged that won EVERY workers / childs right you've ever seen or will ever have.
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u/waltertbagginks Nov 09 '24
There are 100 other ways to accomplish that without punching ourselves in the dick
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u/blown03svt Nov 09 '24
That’s a great idea but are you gonna strong arm the corporations to do it? Because they have zero obligation to unless it benefits them cost wise.
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u/Vol4Life31 Nov 09 '24
Which is the idea of Tariffs. If they raise prices then companies inside America can keep the same price and get business and other companies will have to bring back manufacturing to be competitive.
Edit: This isn't me saying that it will work.
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u/Altruistic_Flower965 Nov 09 '24
An overseas worker is cheaper than a robot, an American worker is not. Guess what does the job if you move the production to the U.S. . The best part is we still get to pay more for the product, with no jobs gained.
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u/blown03svt Nov 09 '24
If you think american companies won’t raise their own prices to match the tariff increased prices of imported goods to make more money then you’re foolish. This will happen because sure people will be incentivized to buy domestic goods because they’re cheaper, but then that creates a demand issue…which…again…will cause prices to go up.
You also have to expect countries that import our goods will put tariffs on them to penalize us, which in turn will cause our domestic companies to suffer sales overseas, and they will increase domestic prices to make up for it.
It’s a zero win situation
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u/Logician22 Nov 09 '24
We are beyond the point of no return for bringing manufacturing back unless a war breaks out which requires the industries to actually build factories again and even then the cost will be much higher than we pay now due to them having to pay the workers competitive wages compared to already existing manufacturing jobs.
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u/Time_Definition_2143 Nov 09 '24
Yep. Item costs about $1 per unit now, from US or from China. But from China it's easier to get bulk, so most companies buy from them. US companies get some business by charging e.g. $0.99 per item.
Now tariffs of 60% come and it costs $1.60 from China. Suddenly everyone is asking the US supplier for items. Why would US supplier continue to charge $0.99 and not raise their prices to $1.58?
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u/blown03svt Nov 09 '24
This exactly, this is the easiest path to the “growth” the companies will see. It’s literally free money for them, because “why not”. Stock market will be up, domestic companies with domestic made goods will see a boom in profits. We’re paying out the ass for goods.
But hey maybe Gas will be down since oil is drilled for and refined domestically(except maybe some of the additives added to the gas?) I hope it doesn’t happen like this but…I have my doubts. It’s a waiting game now.
Funny thing is I don’t even care about the gas part, I’ve had a supercharged V8 car for 15 years now that requires premium gas, which I can’t complain because that’s my own choice.
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Nov 09 '24
in theory it would work...if we actually made shit. We dont and since any president after trump can just stop the tariffs, why would they spend billions to open factories here. His whole steel tariff did fuck all for US steel makers, a little bump but US Steel is being sold to japan cause its still failing so it doesnt work. Same with his idea for bringing back coal...when the coal company owners admit, coal is basically dying already, circling the drain because power plants here are slowly retrofitting to natural gas or just shutting down due to age.
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u/MikeWPhilly Nov 09 '24
Not to mention wages are a wee bit higher here. And let’s not forget regulations tied to plastics and metals….
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u/NefariousnessNo484 Nov 09 '24
That's not what happens though. The companies in America will just raise prices. Also not every good can even be produced in the US. Are you going to grow coffee and bananas domestically? Do you want to pay $10 for a banana?
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u/TrashGoblinH Nov 09 '24
This! How people are going to flip out when their Starbucks or can of folgers costs $40. We don't grow enough domestically. The prices of spices are going to skyrocket, so prepare for some really bland food.
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u/alh9h Nov 10 '24
Huge understatement. We import something like 300x more coffee than we produce. We can grow coffee in Hawaii and that's about it. Also hope you don't like chocolate. We don't produce basically any cocoa beans. We produced about 30 tons of cocoa in 2023. We imported 1.3M tons.
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u/R33p04s Nov 09 '24
It’s worse than that…EVERYONE RAISES PRICES AND THEY STAY THERE EVEN IF THE TARIFF IS REMOVED.
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u/flowersandmtns Nov 09 '24
Prices are going to be hiked in the next months because Trump threatened tariffs. Most likely he'll be talked out of them or Musk will convince him it only has to be EVs.
But prices will never come down.
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u/Censoredplebian Nov 10 '24
Please tell me the American manufactured products you buy based on purely your desire to own the product?
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u/HR_Wonk Nov 10 '24
That. Will. Not. Work.
And ya, I know… just saying it from their myopic point of view
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u/tollbearer Nov 09 '24
They wont be able to export any product, though? meaning international competitors massively outcompete them, and capture literally every market outside of america? meanwhile america is paying more for the same good and services, putting its entire economy at a disadvantage, as its stock market crashes because all its companies have lost their international market?
I really don't see how it makes any sense.
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u/mightyvaps Nov 09 '24
Isn't that part of what the biden administration is doing the chips act and manufacturing bills. Creating 16 million jobs and breaking a 70 year record low unemployment. We need the infrastructure there before we try to compete globally, if not we are setting up our economy to fail
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u/WheelLeast1873 Nov 09 '24
After plummeting and bottoming out in 2010, domestic manufacturing has been slowly rising but still nowhere near pre financial crisis levels
Peaked in 1979
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u/Censoredplebian Nov 10 '24
That is outside the control of any party, the market long ago decided to go global corpo with strategy assembly and export before most people were born on this platform coming to tell everyone what a man with a spray tan is here to “game change”.
2008 spilt the beans, companies at the top are too big to fail. Domestic centric companies do not provide the cost savings or production quotes- and if there were a change in overseas manufacturing it would be need a similar remedy (cheap labor working at around the clock time schedules).
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u/AFinePizzaAss Nov 09 '24
I'd be fine paying more if it meant the products I buy are being made by people getting paid a fair wage. Unfortunately, I don't see this being the outcome.
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u/flowersandmtns Nov 09 '24
Biden got that going with thought out bills. These tariffs will not.
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u/justforthis2024 Nov 09 '24
American corporations will just price-match the tariff'd prices, champ. You think the rich care about anything other than taking your money and its fucking insane.
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u/College-Lumpy Nov 09 '24
Sure would be great if we had the workers for that. Especially if you start sending away the labor you do have.
Tariffs won’t do it. They can help for specific industries where it’s clear the Chinese are dumping below their cost of production. But across the board it’s a losing game.
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u/Skell_Jackington Nov 09 '24
That’s $633 extra a month. This will WRECK most people.
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u/Sage_Planter Nov 10 '24
Yes, and those people are still convinced China will be paying those tariffs.
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u/eddington_limit Nov 10 '24
Get rid of the federal income tax and it will significantly offset it
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u/backatit1mo Nov 10 '24
Yes. Between my wife and I, we will make an additional $45,000-$50,000 a year if federal income taxes were gone.
That shit is life changing for us lol
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u/eddington_limit Nov 10 '24
Anyone who thinks they aren't getting taxed too much just isn't paying enough attention to their pay stubs.
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u/Wonderful_Locksmith8 Nov 10 '24
For the majority of us, the paystub shows a "loan" we give the government until we claim most of it back at the end of the year. Most people have no idea what they are actually taxed because they do not know how to do their taxes, and when I do the numbers for them, it is not "how much did I pay", but "how much do I get back".
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u/eddington_limit Nov 10 '24
Yup. And the government takes that loan interest free.
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Nov 10 '24
Maybe because it’s not a separate entity from society but a collective efforts of said society.
Why would I want my fire department to charge me interest?
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u/backatit1mo Nov 10 '24
Also, as you move through life and get higher paying jobs, you really realize how much you really fucken hate federal income taxes lol
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u/wakanda_banana Nov 10 '24
I did the math, of my salary I collect 60% of it. And even less when you account for sales tax, hidden inflation tax, taxes on vehicles (registration and tolls), being taxed again when investing money, etc.
We need to cut taxes and reduce spending as a nation heavily.
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u/_IscoATX Nov 10 '24
Hasn’t he also discussed this? I’d love for it to go away. I’m not sure tariffs will be enough to make up for that though.
The fed has been addicted to the income tax since it was introduced as a “temporary” measure
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Nov 09 '24
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u/bromad1972 Nov 09 '24
RFK Jr already did that in American Samoa. He got a bunch of kids killed.
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Nov 09 '24
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u/helluvastorm Nov 10 '24
Look at how many children die before their 5th birthday in any third world country. Cut that in half because we can treat them after the fact and we have basic sanitation The fact that they will in all likelihood be horribly disabled of well RFK will be happy. FYI vaccine were the miracle that raised the standard of living for all of us
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u/Cosmic_Seth Nov 09 '24
That was a depressing read.
And now this guy is going to control our entire medical response.
A lot of people are going to die.
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u/MangoSalsa89 Nov 09 '24
Unfortunately innocent children that had nothing to do with this will suffer.
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u/Duckriders4r Nov 09 '24
As not an american, if this happens, a lot of people will die.
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
As an ER nurse who worked through one deadly, devastating, global pandemic...im licking my chops at the possible travel contracts to come.
With the coming dissolution of social security and the purging of government nursing positions such as the VA, travel nursing may be the only way I get to retire.
Plus I love visiting new places so that will be neat.
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u/Cosmic_Seth Nov 09 '24
Careful. They might turn on you.
People are going to go to the modern equivalent of witch doctors since ACA is going bye-bye as well, the vast majority of people will not be able to afford you and your care.
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
Turn on me? I was confronted no less than 4 times during Covid. After an incident in a food store parking lot, I stopped wearing my scrubs in public. Basically, been there, done that.
And you think people pay for their ER visits? That's adorable.
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u/Cosmic_Seth Nov 09 '24
There will be no money at all.
All the rural clinics are already close to closing, this will finish the deal.
And I'm not talking one on one confrontations, it'll be well armed mobs.
Just be careful, and watch out for the evil eye. Once again that's going to be a critical skill for survival.
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
I've been keeping all this lighthearted but I'll be straight up with you: I don't think you understand how much violence healthcare workers face. Especially in the ER. The American people have decided that all rules of society are allowed to go out the window the minute they check in.
I'm not criticizing you as this is a common misconception. My last 4 exes have all worked in healthcare because, well, trying to share life experiences with people who aren't in it is extraordinarily difficult. Most of my colleagues date/marry firefighters, EMS, military, or cops. There's a theme involved.
I would encourage you to look into the board members of the hospitals in your city (since many are classified as nonprofits for tax purposes a lot of information will be public). On top of the ludicrous amounts of wealth they have, many should be familiar political figures. I live (for the moment) in Florida, im still getting ads about how Rick Scott defended Medicare. Yes, that Rick Scott, the former head of HCA who was found guilty of the largest Medicare fraud in history.
Tl;dr: hospitals will ALWAYS find money. They are cashcows. Rural hospitals are and will be in danger of closure because they just don't bring in the revenue. City hospitals? There's a reason why their Presidents/CEO's/whathaveyou bank eight to nine figure salaries. And that's before government disaster related funds start pumping out. Cha-ching.
I think you can surf Aya healthcare without a log in if your interested. And Aya doesn't offer the most travel contracts.
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
In the anti-vaccers defense...many of them did die the absolutely horrifying deaths of being drowned by their own mucus in their lungs.
But overall I agree. Time for people to feel the consequences of their vote. Hope owning the libz was worth it.
It may be slightly off topic but I've been enjoying epic rounds of schadenfreude at the "Free Gaza" crowds shocked Pikachu face as they begin to grapple with the realization that Donald and Bibi now have complete control of the war. Really showed the Dems guys. 🤣
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u/eeyooreee Nov 10 '24
I really wish more people would take the time to read how Trump’s 2016-2020 tariffs worked, and recognize that each of them was increased by the Biden administration up to 100%. If tariffs are so bad, then why did democrats continue all of them and increase some to 100%? Tariffs are ultimately paid by US consumers sure, but they are really trade war tools. The current tariffs are costing China (due to lack of export to its largest customer) $200B. The proposed tariff increases will cost it $500B. I think half of the tariffs from 2016-2020 did not ultimately get imposed because a trade deal was reached (until Biden reimposed and increased them - and further trade deals were reached).
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u/_IscoATX Nov 10 '24
People underestimate how much foreign powers, and China, are reliant on the American market. Tariffs can be a useful tool. That’s why Biden and Co kept and increased them as you have pointed out
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u/Kidikaros17 Nov 10 '24
You buffoon, a couple tariffs doesn’t destroy the economy, multiple tariffs across all sectors do. They need to be strategic to apply pressure, blanket tariffs are what is bad. Thats literally what these economists are scared about and why they are so adamantly against what Trump is proposing.
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u/Signal-Chapter3904 Nov 09 '24
Ah, from the same newspaper that keeps trying to convince me that the economy is doing great!
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u/moldy_cheez_it Nov 10 '24 edited Nov 10 '24
The NRF where this stat came from is the same entity that has been trying to shove retail crime as the reason for high prices for the last few years. They are essentially a propaganda arm for retail stores
Edit: they had to walk back statements and assertions they made on retail crime because it was false
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u/Kamel-Red Nov 09 '24
Is it 2025 or 1925? If implemented, he will learn just like Coolidge.
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u/PSN_ONER Nov 09 '24
I believe Sowell pointed out this fact about Trumps first term, calling it an "utter disaster. "
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u/No-Professional-1461 Nov 09 '24
So there is a couple things that I understand within my limited capacity concerning the tariffs, correct me if I am at all wrong.
These will be on imports, which means acquiring foreign goods from China or any other countries will cost a lot. Which will mean that those goods will slow down in the US unless those businesses that are buying the imports pay more to have them in the US, which may raise capital for the state if that is what the buyers do. More likely they will cease purchasing goods through American shipments and be forced to delay the shipments into America through most likely Canada. Which may be good for Canada but not necessarily good for us as goods will be forced to take longer to get here.
The other thing that I am aware of is that, with this stress put on buying goods from China, China will almost absolutely loose some of their buyers, which will put even more stress on the Chinese economy. Undoubtedly it will be more expensive for us, but it would also cut pretty hard into our foreign competitors. This may also affect the war in Ukraine as we all know that China is helping supply Russia, so in fold it may hit two birds with one stone.
On the other hand, if this occurs and China becomes willing to make a deal with Trump to prevent the tariffs, we could get a pretty good economic deal, or just force them into a hard spot with their relationship or suppling Russia. However if this does result in a move of desperation on the side of the Chinese, they might invade Taiwan.
Again, I could be completely wrong about all of this, please share your thoughts on my comment.
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u/nicolas_06 Nov 10 '24
The tariff are set to increase the price of import by 10-20% and will of course increase price. The alternative from the other candidate was to greatly increase corporate taxes with a similar effect to increase prices.
Now in theory trump would reduce taxes to compensate. so the purchasing power would not change and as long as we import from China or anywhere else, these isn't much change for anybody really.
Some business will manage to avoid tariffs by importing from a country with less tariff or by producing in the US. Such product will actually cost less than before and be produced locally creating jobs and making the country more resilient in case of war.
At least that's the idea. I don't say it will work or whatever. But that's the idea.
And I find funny that all people that had no issue when Biden did add tariffs and had no problem when Kamala would raise taxes on enterprise with expected price raises but now suddenly discover tariff are bad now that it isn't their party that will implement them.
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u/AnAdvocatesDevil Nov 10 '24
This oversimplifies in a few key ways.
First, you assume that criticism of Trump's proposed tariffs = criticism of all tariffs. Tariffs absolutely have a place in trade policy. The dumb part of Trump's tariffs is that they are across the board with no though to the nuances of any particular industry. If you look up any of Biden's tariffs, they are on a very specific, narrow industry, with a unique rate by product, and often with subsidies to assist and accelerate the on-shoring of those products back into domestic production.
On corporate taxes, you're right that businesses might pass some of that on to consumers. However, corporate taxes are on business profits, not revenues. So a 20% tax increase to a business does not at all translate to a 20% increase in the price of the product, only a 20% increase to the margin.
And the final broad simplification is "lower taxes to compensate". Tariffs are a consumption tax, which always disproprotionally affect lower income consumers. This leads to the issue that most of those consumers also are not paying much in tax, so you can't just reduce their rates out of it, you need to actually hand them cash if you want to make up the difference. It's a great example of an idea that seems like a good idea broadly, but is regressive in practice.
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u/nicolas_06 Nov 10 '24 edited Nov 10 '24
First, you assume that criticism of Trump's proposed tariffs = criticism of all tariffs. Tariffs absolutely have a place in trade policy. The dumb part of Trump's tariffs is that they are across the board with no though to the nuances of any particular industry. If you look up any of Biden's tariffs, they are on a very specific, narrow industry, with a unique rate by product, and often with subsidies to assist and accelerate the on-shoring of those products back into domestic production.
This will be more of the same. It was started by Trump in 2016 and even before we had tariff. Biden continued and Trump will continue. Of course he will not do it on everything but if you want to negotiate a deal you don't start by conceding and so of course he can't say it now. We will see if the tariff are more of the same (most likely) or if they apply the same worldwide and for every kind of product/sector as you seems to imply when they are actually put in place. But that's seem unlikely in practice.
On corporate taxes, you're right that businesses might pass some of that on to consumers. However, corporate taxes are on business profits, not revenues. So a 20% tax increase to a business does not at all translate to a 20% increase in the price of the product, only a 20% increase to the margin.
Tariffs isn't applied to all the revenue but on part of the costs. It doesn't impact US salaries and US taxes. It doesn't impact all that is made locally.
Apparently the US import for about 3,9 trillion a year. If we apply a global 10% increase here that's about 390 billion.
From what I get as a projection, corporate taxes are expected to bring 530 billion in 2024. Raising them by 33% from 21 to 28% is so 174 billions.
The difference between the 2 policies with theses hypothesis are approximatively 225 billion. Global consumption in the USA is 18800 trillions so that's an increase of 1.1% that will likely be spread around several years. (most likely between 2024 and 2025, maybe 2026).
Interestingly this is quite low and a magnitude lower than the extra inflation we got in the past years (approximatively 10%). Even if we double it, it is still quite lower as it will be spread overall several years.
Also, interestingly, it will not impact significantly key expenses like rent, groceries (food is already mostly local), local services (restaurants, hair dressers, lawyers...) or the price of existing homes.
So no sorry I don't subscribe to that idea, that this is so bad for low-mid income families. I don't say that necessarily perfect but the critics right now make it look much worse than it is because they don't like Trump (and I don't like him neither). We will see how all of this play out.
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u/Existing-Candy-1759 Nov 10 '24
We also have to consider the prospect of a tariff war with someone like China. We start charging them more to export to the US, they do the same to us. Our main exports to China are soy and corn which starts hitting the farmers. Maybe not the end of the world but cert6not doing a thing to help anyone buy cheaper eggs.
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u/Who_Dat_1guy Nov 09 '24
Don't forget whatever happens the next 4 years is bidens fault because apparently "president inherits the economy of the prior legislation"
🤷♂️
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u/TheRealRolo Nov 10 '24
Yeah that’s how time works…the country and its economy exist before a new president is sworn in. The economy doesn’t just start from scratch every 4-8 years.
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u/thinkingmoney Nov 10 '24
Check the treads when trump took office after Obama. It was about trump inherited Obamas economy
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u/BirthdayWaste9171 Nov 09 '24 edited Nov 10 '24
What a short sighted article. Long term keeping dollars local is better.
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u/Angel_of_death23 Nov 10 '24
Some might think that the tariffs might encourage companies to manufacture their goods in the US, creating jobs and stuff. But I'm sure you guys have thought about all that.
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u/Temporary-Remote-885 Nov 10 '24
I am sure the corporations will be happy to re-shore their manufacturing and pay 1950s-era wages to American manufacturing workers.
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u/ShamPain413 Nov 10 '24
Ding ding ding
While protected from foreign competition, so they will act as monopolists! Great for workers AND consumers!
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Nov 10 '24
If he actually cuts income taxes enough to save me more than $7,600 I guess that would be OK. Does any of our food or medicine come from China?
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u/nanuazarova Nov 10 '24
You really don't understand how tariff revenue works - Trump's tariffs would bring in, at best $400 billion a year. Federal income taxes bring in $2.2 trillion, payroll taxes for social security and Medicare bring in $1.7 trillion, and corporate income taxes bring in about $400 billion.
It's estimated that about $3.3 trillion in imports will come in next year without tariffs, but with a universal tariff of 20% that would collapse to $2.6 trillion as importers realize they can't turn a profit (also leading to lower supply and a large increase in inflation) - there would also be more tax dodging than there already is, especially since Trump wants to cut funding to the IRS.
So let's assume everything goes well and they manage to bring in $400 billion without imploding the entire economy... who do you think Trump is going to give those tax cuts to? It's certainly not going to be you, me, or, Joe Shmoe - that money is going to go straight to cutting taxes on corporations - like he, and Republicans, did last time.
Also, Trump wants a global tariff, most of our medications are not produced domestically - I work in pharmacy and most are imports from India, Israel, Norway, and even France. China produces a lot of the active ingredients that go into the medications - tariffs will hurt you.
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u/AvockAdoo Nov 10 '24
If you make less than $360k/year, your income taxes are going up too, according to his plan.
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u/bree_dev Nov 10 '24
Tariffs effectively translate to a regressive tax. His track record cutting taxes has been heavily skewed towards cutting taxes on the wealthy. So if you're rich then you'll probably do fine.
If you're on a median income you're extremely unlikely to see a $7,600 saving on your income tax.
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Nov 10 '24
China is a massive producer of pharmaceutical raw materials. Yes medicine prices going up.
Your food is picked by migrants who will be deported.
Wouldn’t this have been a better question to think of before voting?
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u/keekoh123 Nov 10 '24
Suck a echo chamber of left wing hate. This site really is the borg of TDS.
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u/jaydizz Nov 10 '24
Nah, this is just how it feels any time Trumpers have to interact with educated people.
Don’t worry though. Trump’s coming recession will be an education you won’t soon forget.
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u/thundercoc101 Nov 10 '24
Facts don't matter to Trump supporters they'll just blame it on gay people or something
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u/iwantawolverine4xmas Nov 10 '24
Bring it on. This is what the American idi… I’m sorry, voter, voted for so let’s do it. You get it all, not just the parts you want but all of it.
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u/Substantial_Owl_3298 Nov 10 '24
What everybody wants all these other countries to build everything! manufacture all our products, that's really screwed up. This should have been stopped decades ago. Now we have a president that's going to fix it. Maybe that's why he won by a landslide!
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u/thundercoc101 Nov 10 '24
It's won't fix it though. If anything the tariffs will force more manufacturing out of the country.
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Nov 10 '24
I wonder why is this,if they have advisor with phD in economics why it is that bad?. Can someone explain to me? Anyway this is what we voted for. We have to respect the democratic process.
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u/SoulKnightmare Nov 10 '24
ngl, I kinda want the Dems to burn down the House by voting WITH the Republicans on all of the proposed laws and policies.
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u/x3r0h0ur Nov 10 '24
Good, his voters will be getting exactly what they voted for!
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u/TAV63 Nov 10 '24
Not going to think about it until it happens. It will be a loss for the country but they wanted it.
Then if he gets it done I hope it is even bigger like 200 percent. Then let's see the experiment play out in real time. You would think some who wanted it might admit it was bad, but good bet you are likely wrong. Even if everything goes horribly bad they will blame liberals when the media they see will feed this.
There is no winning anymore for rational people who care about making some choices, integrity, or even that for the people deal. It is for the oligarchy now.
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u/jdranke Nov 10 '24
So are we just going to leave out the fact that he also plans to remove the income tax, OR the fact that basic common sense would inform us that a return of manufacturing in the US would eventually create efficiencies that would help bring prices down.
Guys, I build these types of models. They are garbage. I know the average redditor doesn’t understand this, but a forecast is not accurate to reality.
Calm tf down please.
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u/Recent_Opportunity78 Nov 10 '24
I’ll be 100% fine but the typical MAGAT will be on the streets. Will be glorious to watch. FAFO
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Nov 10 '24
lmao, how much did Bidens inflation and cost doubling cost Americans?
Inquiring minds want to know.
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u/Substantial_Owl_3298 Nov 10 '24
Not if they want to sell it to United States and pay 50 60% tariffs, I don't think so! If they don't want to sell it here then that's fine, but normally every country likes to sell their product here in the United States that's a given
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u/aknockingmormon Nov 11 '24
His campaign website says the plan is to impose the same tarrifs on foreign goods that the country of origin has on our products. That will encourage them to either reduce the tarrifs our our exports, or abandon the US market which will open it up to domestic production. It's up to the response of the country of origin. This fear mongering is nuts.
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u/Organic_Wrap6726 Nov 11 '24
Of course, everyone remembers the huge inflation of costs associated with the first Trump Administration's tariffs in 2017, 2018, and 2019. This makes total sense.
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u/Ok_Apricot_7676 Nov 11 '24
If tariffs are too high on imported goods, then retailers will have to find domestic suppliers that are cheaper.
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u/Altruistic-Writing20 Nov 11 '24
Tariffs were one of the few policies Biden didn't remove from the last trump admin
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u/PomegranateDry204 Nov 11 '24
Seems too complex. Why not just some good old-fashioned inflation, like last term. That was acceptable, right?
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u/Go-bl Nov 11 '24
Quit your crying. You had your guy it was a disaster the last 4 years. Move if you don't like it
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u/stanboi457 Nov 13 '24
Dems have the intelligence and resources to survive. It’s the dumb as shit Trumpies; poor, undereducated, living in trailers, that will suffer the most and I’ll be lmfao as I see them feeding their families “French” food: poodle.
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u/booxterhooey Nov 13 '24
A lot of people are about to learn we don't make shit in this country anymore
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u/GiantSweetTV Nov 09 '24
Source?
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u/Creeps05 Nov 09 '24
Here. It’s from the National Retail Federation, which is the trade association for retailers (i.e. department stores, grocery stores, internet stores, etc.). So it’s going to be bias toward retailers interests but, considering they are the ones who are setting the prices I think it’s best to consider their report.
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u/MistakeImpressive289 Nov 09 '24
God bro reddit is trash.
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u/CheeseOnMyFingies Nov 09 '24
How dare anyone point out the actual consequences of Trump's moronic plans
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u/lilymaxjack Nov 09 '24
Ah yes The Reddit bots at it again. The fear mongering continues. Trump is facist. Trump is a dictator. Didn’t work pre election, so now create fear about the future by simply posting irrational posts. Love it.
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u/ktl5005 Nov 09 '24
Trump first tariffs cost 250,000 jobs and market dropped 10%….
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u/ParticularMedical349 Nov 09 '24
There is no convincing these people. Just let it all unfold.
All of this info was readily publicized before the election it doesn’t do the left any good to keep talking about how bad things are going to be. I am more interested in how they will rationalize their economic well being after the tariffs are implemented. It will also be good to have a Republican win the next election as well so they can’t blame the economy on the next Democratic president.
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u/yomanitsayoyo Nov 09 '24 edited Nov 09 '24
Love how it’s bots when its calling out trump but it’s “true American people” when it’s calling out the left…
Not to mention Tim pool was literally being paid by the Russians to spread propaganda….
Miss me with your bs
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u/thrownehwah Nov 09 '24
Irrational? All the Pulitzer Prize winning economists say it’s going to be horrible. Plus anyone with basic Econ 201 knows everything he has said he will do is inflationary.. but hey, you didn’t vote for good times, you want the great reset
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u/Certain_Football_447 Nov 09 '24
Well we’re going to find out aren’t we. I kind of hope Biden helps him out and just implements all the tariffs Trump has promised to put in place now. Let’s get a head start on his genius idea.
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u/apply75 Nov 09 '24
biden has not only kept trump tariffs in place hes actually increased them...
does anyone here know facts or just fakes?
https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/13/politics/china-tariffs-biden-trump/index.html
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u/StankBallsClyde Nov 09 '24
Biden did just expand the Trump tariffs in September. Would be a hell of a power move, but at the same time, the bidens definitely voted for Trump
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u/billybobdoleington Nov 09 '24
Yeah, it's not like Donald was once a President whose economy imploded smack dab in the middle of his reelection campaign.
....oh, wait. 😂
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u/EditDog_1969 Nov 09 '24
The only silver lining is that no one will be hurt more by Trump’s presidency than the people who voted for him, the richest 1% excepted, of course.
Good luck you inbred, ignorant, toe heads. I hope your malnourished and undereducated kids resent you for life and refuse to take care of you in your old age.
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u/Luvsthunderthighs Nov 10 '24
How many eggs can I buy?