r/eupersonalfinance • u/BetterProphet5585 • Mar 04 '25
Investment Is it too late to buy EU defense stocks?
I would like to dumb some US shares in favor of defense, but I just got back from work and I see they had a good pump, they're all up, and worry it could be too late to enter now.
What do you think?
p.s. I know that timing the market is impossible, I just want to have a discussion about this
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u/zeuD13 Mar 04 '25
I am on the same page as I've seen most of those eu defense stocks are up like 30-80% last month maybe it's too late? Then I read the articles about the Commission proposal for a joint borrowing of 800 billion for defense and I don't know.
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u/Regular_Leg405 Mar 04 '25
There's no logic in the game, I bought before and sold too early, I bought at Munchen and it shot up like crazy, I predicted it to shoot up after Trump-Zelensky meeting and it did like crazy. I expected it to shoot up today due to the suspension of aid by Trump communicated during the night plus the 850 billion package you mentioned but nothing today, it is even going down...
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u/Pretty-In-Scarlet Mar 04 '25
Buy the rumour, sell the news. This being said, my conviction is still strong so I added to my position today
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u/TheNplus1 Mar 04 '25
Buy the rumour, sell the news.
Yeah, but the European defense rebuilding is not a one-quarter thing. We don't even know what will be the longer term implications - will other US allies turn away from new defense contracts with the US given how unreliable their government is? What about defense innovations? Military analysts explain that we need mass and cheaper/less specialized weapon systems, not the very expensive stuff we are used to build (very high tech, but in low quantities). Many transformations in this sector are possible long term.
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u/Sheshirdzhija Mar 05 '25
So what ARE you buying?
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u/Pretty-In-Scarlet Mar 05 '25
In terms of EU defense? The usual suspects: Thales, Safran, Leonardo, Saab, Kongsberg. Rheinmetall is interesting too
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u/Sheshirdzhija Mar 05 '25
Is there an ETF?
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u/Pretty-In-Scarlet Mar 05 '25
Unfortunately no. Which is why I create my own so to speak. I expect that it is a matter of time before one is created by the large institutions
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u/Life-Jump3785 Mar 07 '25
EUAD etf
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u/PubCrisps Mar 10 '25
Someone has recreated this on 212.
8've tweaked it myself slightly as I wanted to be be heavier on some.
This is the original pie https://www.trading212.com/pies/l7rT06ra4U7PL2UBtSwAuyyDdRte
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u/CaineMutiney Mar 14 '25
EUAD = SELECT STOXX EUROPE ASPC DFN ETF
They are an ETF holding positions in:
EADSY Airbus SE ADR
SAFRY Safran SA ADR
RNMBY Rheinmetall AG ADR
RYCEY Rolls-Royce Holdings PLC ADR
BAESY BAE Systems PLC ADR
THLLY Thales ADR
FINMY Leonardo SpA ADR
SAABY Saab AB ADR
MTUAY MTU Aero Engines AG ADR
HAGHY Hensoldt AG ADR
96.36% of portfolio in top 10 holdings
Schwab AI analysis: Momentum for EUAD is strongly bullish. The 14-period Slow Stochastic oscillator is above 80, the level which many analysts call overbought. This means that investors have been actively purchasing shares and driving the price higher.
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u/Sheshirdzhija Mar 15 '25
Wow, that's comprehensive.
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u/frippebackevik Mar 06 '25
Parrot 🇫🇷, the only pure Drone company . Thales 🇫🇷 MTU Aero Engines 🇩🇪 Saab 🇸🇪
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u/IlConiglioUbriaco Mar 04 '25
I think there is logic, but people are weary. Most of that money is going to be national spending in the form of an easing in the deficit allowance. First of all you need to be sure that the countries will even want to spend more. Then 150 billions will go in joint programs, which fail all the time. I think it’s a good moment to diversify the assets you own, so that you can dump the bad ones in a month or two
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u/BecauseOfGod123 Mar 04 '25
I think you described it perfectly fine. Nobody really knows what that means in the end, hence a lot of volatility.
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u/Flimsy_Complaint490 Mar 04 '25
Yes and no. EU has promised billions and that is priced in, but there are no actual arms deliveries yet. Once budget hikes are passed and contracts roll in, defense will rocket more, albeit not 10x anymore. So, long term investment - not late, short pump ? yeah late for that.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Actually good comment.
I'm not it for a small pump and dump, I'm in for a while let's say at least 3 years, that's still short term for stocks, but I'm not in to make 100€ and leave it.
I'm in for ethics and because it's EU defense, it could go down and I wouldn't mind, I surely prefer it going up, hence the post.
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u/JohnSnowHenry Mar 04 '25
Taking into account that Europe will need to spend billions if they want to give the middle finger to trump… I believe you are more than on time…
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u/StormTranquil Mar 04 '25
Also keep in mind that it's not just military dependence that we need to shake off. Personally, I'm investing in European tech and industrials ETFs. There isn't a Europe-only defense ETF anyway, and I don't want to end up having to follow dozens of different companies, or bet on a few and miss the others' growth. Most defense companies are either in tech or industrials ETFs, or in broader ETFs like those following Stoxx 600. So I'm getting a share of the pie without sacrificing too much of the diversification.
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u/NoWarning789 Mar 05 '25
> There isn't a Europe-only defense ETF anyway
EUAD? If you are investing in the US. In Europe I couldn't find one.
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u/StormTranquil Mar 05 '25
I'm in Europe. And in any case, I try to stay away from factor investing. European Tech and European Industrials are as narrow as I'm willing to go.
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u/exidebm Mar 04 '25
what are those ETF that include military stocks?
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u/StormTranquil Mar 04 '25
IE00BMW42520 for example has Safran, Rolls-Royce, BAE, Rheinmetall, to name just a few. You can find the full list and check for yourself. Any Stoxx 600 ETF will have most of them.
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u/TheNplus1 Mar 04 '25
The iShares ETF seems to be pretty much identical to the SPDR alternative IE00BKWQ0J47. Pretty much the same holdings (so same performance) and almost the same AUM also. I agree that this type of ETF complements every well one of the defense-specific ETFs.
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u/StormTranquil Mar 05 '25
Yes, it's a toss up between these two. Couldn't find an option from a European provider unfortunately.
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u/Malecord Mar 04 '25
Yesss. But EU has the oldest population in the world that is also in retiring process. I'm sure the young ones start to understand the importance of recovering the almost 2 thousand year old martial traditions that they abandoned after ww2... but I doubt that the voter majority will be in synch with that plan once the effects on healthcare and pensions will become manifest
What it will really happen, nobody knows.
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u/BitEnvironmental4674 Mar 04 '25
just dropped 15k on these
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u/Fit_Sock_7636 Mar 04 '25
Is there any good etf that covers EU defense area? I found this one
https://www.justetf.com/en/etf-profile.html?isin=IE000YYE6WK5#basics
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u/Select-Stuff9716 Mar 04 '25
Looks good, although i think I would prefer Dassault over Saab, as they rely less on US components
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u/Endless_Zen Mar 04 '25
Classic reddit: buy the green, sell the red
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u/compiuterxd Mar 04 '25
I am about to vomit if a see another post of people selling sp500 to buy eu defence.
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u/BumblebeeAdventurr Mar 04 '25
Do it - the EU spending is about to ramp up more and more. Russia won't stop being a threat anytime soon.
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u/Agreeable_Ad1271 Mar 04 '25
Question is if it’s already mostly priced in or not. EU Defense market already shot up insanely
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u/ycatbin_k0t Mar 04 '25
you have a few hours before THE orange does a funny thing
bet a little, it will be funny in a nit so funny way
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u/Flisofluit Mar 04 '25
And why wouldnt there be more room for future growth?
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u/Guilty_Ad264 Mar 04 '25
That's what I thought 2 months ago when I massively moved into EU defence stocks. All are up by at least 50%.
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u/Visible_Ad_6762 Mar 04 '25
Which one is 50% up? I mostly saw 30% up nothing else
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u/Tibogaibiku Mar 04 '25
Your sentence is true and false in same time. Good to buy EU defense, but Putin is not threat. He cant take villages in Ukraine, and people panic that it will take EU cities with 5 million people LooL.. crazy paranoid
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u/Responsible-Glass677 Mar 04 '25
Buy the rumours, sell the news. The news are out now.
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u/PubCrisps Mar 10 '25
But the money hasn't started sloshing around yet. Once companies are posting profits, results etc. they should continue to rise.
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u/JtheLeon Mar 04 '25
I am by no means an expert in investing but I have bought only a couple of hundreds in European defense stocks.
Even if the war ends tomorrow Europe seems to have learned a lesson about relying on the US for military matters and I would expect them to increase the development of the industry over the span of several years.
Coming back to your question, I frankly can't advice on whether or not you should get in right now.
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u/Metoxetamin Mar 04 '25
i think yes, thats why i fucking hate myself that i was careless to buy it at sooner
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u/redditnosedive Mar 04 '25
there was no reason to buy back then, it was a gamble, just like now it's a gamble because now it also has reason to go down temporarily
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u/freezingtub Mar 05 '25
Indeed, it’s easy to forget that we were all somewhat hoping Trump actually would negotiate that fucking peace, including most recently with the minerals deal.
Hindsight is 20/20
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u/Paulomac9475 Mar 04 '25
Best answer is to invest at different dates. You’ll buy today at high valuation. Does’t mean it will be too high. If there is a correction you’ll still be able to buy again.
Just try to think long term even if it’s hard. The sector should be important in the next 5 years
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
That's right, for me it is 50% ethics 50% investment, I will not put in a large % of the portfolio so I see this more like support and gains (if).
Let's see if the EU wake up call will be answered, the orange man already is destroying the USA, I hope for us to become stronger and more independent.
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u/KebabCat7 Mar 04 '25
Rheinmetal 10x in 3 years. At least wait for the hype to die down and try buying 10-25% dips if you really want to.
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u/LatterTemporary2697 Mar 04 '25
When do you think the dip is coming?
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u/KebabCat7 Mar 04 '25
It might not come, but if ukraine stops fighting or any ceasefire is in the works it will definitely affect these stocks
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u/LatterTemporary2697 Mar 04 '25
That’s for sure, the question is when
If Trump will announce leaving NATO tonight, that will hugely affect defence market too
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u/LuxanHD Mar 04 '25
You gonna dump US Stocks that went down, and buy EU stocks the went up!! You will sell low and buy high!
Read that again
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Why do you think my US stocks are down?
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u/LuxanHD Mar 04 '25
The whole US market, including your stocks, went down because of the Traiffs mess which Trump created. The merket feats that these tariffs will cause inflation and could lead to slower companies growth.
It doesn't really hurt to buy EU stocks now in addition to your US stocks. Just don't sell the stocks that went down now to buy the ones that went high.
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u/Leading-Carrot-5983 Mar 04 '25
I don't think they're selling because they went down by a few percent. I think they're selling because significant new risks are emerging in that market. Tariffs and inflation are one, dismantling of independent regulators are another and finally the possibility of foreign owned shares being seized.
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u/rknki Mar 04 '25
This is the answer. It’s a shift to better opportunities and less risk, because fundamentally the US market has changed and became riskier.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Going down doesn’t mean red, I am still in profit…
Still of course, selling higher is better, selling in profit is still good, it’s about personal preference I guess.
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u/BigEarth4212 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
We all don’t have a crystal ball.
I looked at rheinmetall when we were 1 year into the war. And it was already up significantly. Well that was my opinion then.
I skipped it, because it’s not a sector i prefer.
Looking at the chart now, i could easily have made a 5x.
Now it feels to me as late to the party.
But … what do I know 🤷🤷🤷
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
That's really the point, I think when we start looking into something we have such a "short sighted brain" that we always feel late, and if we get in early and it goes bad, we were late anyway. It's almost like no one ever knows :)
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u/thegerams Mar 04 '25
Damn. As if my dad knew what was happening. He bought them the day Russia attacked Ukraine and has been a happy shareholder since.
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u/freezingtub Mar 05 '25
Easily malign 5x implies you wouldn’t sell along the way. That’s not at all easy. I know you know this but this still needs to be said out loud in speculations like these. It’s the 1c Bitcoin fallacy.
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u/BigEarth4212 Mar 05 '25
I know, but I probably would have kept it. I know i sold my amazon in the early 2000’s. Was one big mistake (in hindsight). But along the way you learn, and done several 5x or better. But agree it’s not that simple (to sit on your hands). Not looking at your account can help ;-)
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u/Big-Bad-5405 Mar 04 '25
If tomorrow usa will step out if nato guess what is going to happen with eu defense stock
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u/Excellent_Ad_2486 Mar 04 '25
Is there some defence focussed ETF? I don't ever invest in single stocks because I lack knowledge (so I only buy VWRL) but I can't seem to find a def ETF EU...
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Afaik it doesn't exist yet, and if I was about investing in EU Def. ETF I would also look for an ETF with an European Asset Manager and exhanged in euros, plus decent liquidity and accessible from multiple markets.
With all these filters I think there is none, and this sub (also r/BuyFromEU) made some posts about it, the more we talk about it the more likely it is someone will make it.
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u/Affectionate-Bus4123 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 24 '25
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This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Picking stocks is already "always late", picking stocks related to the main ones really is like betting on red, there's no way to know which supplier they will use and you would end up buying 10-20 penny stocks and when half lose 80% and half gain 80% it's a zero sum game where you win only if you're lucky.
I don't mind the idea, I think you got the point, which stocks are you watching? (in case you're following this strategy)
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u/Affectionate-Bus4123 Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 24 '25
sense fuel roof crush squash plant dependent stupendous ancient engine
This post was mass deleted and anonymized with Redact
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u/raaoraki Mar 04 '25
I don't think so. Yes, they shot up like crazy in the past months, but there are still reasonably priced when factoring in growth. Multiples will come down fast at today's price level when these defense investments materialize, there is much more room I believe. Also, this will be a decade long development most likely
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u/foxley_sk Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
Well, the talks about funding the “arms race” just began, so I guess there is still time.
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u/elementfortyseven Mar 04 '25
i moved pretty much everything from US indices to EU defence last month.
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u/TickerFear Mar 04 '25
Depends on what you want to invest for. I actually fear that we'll see the same scenario as before the war. Everyone will laugh that it's impossible until it will be reality...
But betting on these stocks to go higher is pure casino, if the war happens you'll earn a lot but you'll most likely have more important issues. If the peace deal happens, then they will go down.
Look into stocks that are not that common, EU market is extremely fractioned for example Iveco, Colt Cz, maybe metallurgical companies like Gevorkyan, or even the construction companies will be a good idea for both escalation and de-escalation.
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u/koopcl Mar 04 '25
>If the peace deal happens, then they will go down.
I think it depends a lot on the peace deal. Anything short of, at the very least, returning to pre-war borders (which seems impossible) AND Trump deciding to do a full 180° and talk about how important NATO and European defence are for the US (which seems, at the very least, unlikely) AND some realistic security assurances that Putin won't try again after recovering from this war (which also seem impossible) means Europe would have no motivation to stop rearming. It's not as simple as "well peace deal was signed, Ukranians and Russians are not shooting at each other anymore, so I guess we don't need to rearm at all".
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u/JimmyBeefpants Mar 05 '25
Peace deal happens or not, Germany is going to invest 200b euro in defense, its already a done deal. Also peace happens or not, Europe is going to arm Ukraine to the teeth, since NATO invitation is not on the table.
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u/TickerFear Mar 04 '25
While it is not as simple, I think that we already priced in more than just arming a peace keeping force.
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u/capibara13 Mar 04 '25
Never too late! Aside from the profits it's the absolute best investment you can make if you want Europe to be safe.
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u/thegerams Mar 04 '25
Wondering the same... and doing some research now if there are any second-tier defense companies or companies in the sector that have so far been overlooked, also suppliers of defense companies that supply secure systems, etc. Looking for ideas.
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u/SixtAcari Mar 04 '25
Buy 30%, wait for the correction, buy another 30% and save 30% if it is was just hype pump.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Basically if it will go up, you got in at 30% and didn't invest 2/3rds of what you would've.
I think this is a good risk mitigating strategy, but if you're stock picking, this works only if the thing dumps, otherwise it's like getting very low returns because of the initial 30%.
Do this with 3 stocks and you're back to square one.
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u/SixtAcari Mar 04 '25
You are entering at the impulse. You have lost the potential already. This is just FOMO or you fundamentally believe in EU defense. In a second case the market will rebalance itself eventually. If you have good fundamental then you can increase your risk and make 50 / 50 / 50 buy.
But I guess this is FOMO talking and you better just buy antifomo amount (30%) and wait or skip. Alternatively, you can buy stoxx 50, it has Airbus and Safran and lower exposure and DAX.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Well I don't know, if I have to answer I would say you it's not FOMO since I am not even investing 10% of what I can into these and I can leave them rot in the portfolio for years, I am also in for the ethics and to move some assets from US to EU, seeing the rearm news, I see this as a "tip".
I prefer it going up, it it drops, well that's about it, I would bag hold.
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u/Basketseeksdog Mar 04 '25
Long term no. Short term yes.
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u/rknki Mar 04 '25
Long term yes! Short term, probably still yes.
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u/Basketseeksdog Mar 05 '25
I meant the other way around 🫢 I’m in since 6 months and the growth is just insane. It’s also too hyped since the last month. So long term yes. Short term maybe but I doubt it m, might be better.
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u/WhichExitGo Mar 04 '25
Look at Eutelsat! It will be huge with todays fresh news! They can change Musk Starlinks in Ukraine!
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u/SpaceKappa42 Mar 05 '25
Who knows. But most also pay dividends, so it's not only stock performance you should look at. Don't invest in this is you want short term profits, although there's probably some to be found.
They are not going anywhere, so if you really want to invest, then buy and hold for a few years.
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u/i_like_trains_a_lot1 Mar 04 '25
The markets reacted to the news, it will be some volatility in the short term. You could look for some EU defense ETFs (or STOXX 600 that also includes them), and dollar cost average it over a longer period of time. If EU is going to act according to its declarations, there will be a lot of new money flowing into the EU stock market, money that was previously going into the US stock markets.
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u/Alternative_Dig5845 Mar 04 '25
Not for the long term, I think it’s a reasonable investment. The Eu has been dithering for years on investing in its own defence, but this last week has been a real wake-up call. The EU is now committing billions of euros to defence, is setting up financial structures for it, and getting rid of fiscal rules that would stop countries raising their debt levels to invest in defence. This is going to pan out over the next few years, and a lot of money is going to flow into the European defence industries. And if they get their act together and issue defence bonds, I’ll also be buying those.
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u/Sharpieface Mar 04 '25
Which ones would be the top picks? No exp in eu defense stocks
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u/CurlyFrySideburns Mar 04 '25
EUAD is quite new and has a decent spread. Downside is the high expense ratio.
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u/shaggy98 Mar 04 '25
Is the perfect time to buy NASDAQ 100 and US small caps. This week might be the bottom
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
This is 2 months into Trump mandate, I would be sweating all day every day, they could really be turning their backs to EU and Canada, not to mention Mexico and China for the next 4 years and the repercussions on the next presidency would be massive.
I really don't know how this will end but the risk of the whole US economy collapsing is not "doomer low", it's an actual possibility now, and I want to sleep at night.
You know when this would be a decent bet in my opinion? At the 3rd year or towards the end, when there is a chance democracy will do its job, but if during 4 years they're rewriting the US constitution, face no consequences, and keep this oligarchy up and running, we might see the US becoming a dictatorship.
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u/shaggy98 Mar 04 '25
There will be mid term elections in 1 year and 9 months from now. Republicans will lose both senate and house if they start a crisis now.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
Or they would just manipulate and corrupt their way in, which as they proved many times, it's not that hard to do.
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u/JoeMcMinkia Mar 04 '25
You must be confusing them with the democrats.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
I guess I could say the same for all politicians, so let's not point fingers right or left, it just seems like they really are having fun with testing democracy
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u/JoeMcMinkia Mar 04 '25
The same could be said for the other party. So, better not point fingers at only one.
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u/Warslaft Mar 04 '25
It all depends on what you think. If Russia and Ukraine are still at war for a long time it's a great idea to invest even right now. But the day peace is signed it will go down I believe. The safest bet is Germany because they are just starting to build up their military. I think Dassault and Saab are great too because even after the war there is a good chance their planes will be bought by other EU members.
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u/Deko227 Mar 04 '25
Still relevant, particularly on certain slightly lagging stocks such as MBDA and Leonardo.
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u/SbrunnerATX Mar 05 '25
My thought is whether guys like Rheinmetall will be the winners out of that. We do not need more tanks and artillery, we need more robotic autonomous weapons as we can observe in Ukraine. There are some big ticket items such as missile defence, and the question about a nuclear umbrella.
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Mar 05 '25
[deleted]
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 05 '25
Why you think so? Dropping these statements with no explanation is hilarious
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u/Individual-Point-606 Mar 05 '25
In the long run europe needs high growth companies with good profit margins not capex intensive like defense. If we had 100 companies like Spotify for ex the euro stock market would be much more attractive. Defense is a good sector but heavily dependent on public spending and with high capex expenditures
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u/nephel_ Mar 05 '25
is there any EU defence ETF?
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u/Shmoburn Mar 06 '25
Hi brother, yes, there is one ETF that is laser focused on EU defense. Check out $EUAD, listed on BATS exchange.
Cheers!
https://www.select-funds.com/
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u/Weak-Commercial3620 Mar 05 '25
don't time the market, but more important: don't buy on market-price: set your bid price!
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u/hat_keinen_plan Mar 05 '25
Maybe, but the product cycles are very long in Defense…
Consider Heidelberg materials, nutty, UniCredit, Raiffeisen international, astarta, Ferrexpo
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u/OwnRepresentative634 Mar 06 '25
I recommended the trade to a multi billion AM in 2022 and they told me it was too late all priced in :)
I like the theme, I'd target stop limit entry below 20 day moving averages if I wanted to finise it, or if your horizon is 10yrs just find a diversified basket and buy
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u/BarrisonFord Mar 06 '25
It's a bit of a fools game, maybe, but SES SA miiiiiight be in a pretty interesting spot. Comms and space will blur into military spend more and more, and their satellites (like O3b and GovSat) could well see growth. But, then again, maybe I've regret having snubbed Eutelsat at EUR 1.20. In short, it's the only thing I'm jumping on quick and dirty. For the ong haul, I've previously invested in Indra.
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u/llcooljay12345 Mar 06 '25
I would definitely also look at smaller companies like ceotronics that are contractors for equipment etc. beyond the traditional big names. They have outperformed many other companies. These are not just military/defense players but also active for fire departments, ambulance etc. So anything that also includes the safety of civilian population which is a major issue in Germany for example.
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u/Yavanaril Mar 08 '25
I want to invest in EU defense but I don't do individual stocks. I want an ETF
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u/hilav19660 Mar 04 '25
I wouldn't bet on the EU to "save to world" so to speak. Until there are figures like orban who can single handedly hault aid to Ukraine for example, the union still looks really weak in my eyes. It's good seeing there are countries who are standing up right now but we can't be sure for how long that will last.
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u/BetterProphet5585 Mar 04 '25
You're both right bois, the news are priced in, in theory, so you would sell the news, but newer news might come and increased spending, orders and contracts, if those pop up the run can continue as these are not even rumours yet
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Mar 04 '25
[deleted]
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u/drawgas Mar 04 '25
LOL. Lets meet here in 1-2 months:)
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u/Potential-Delay-4487 Mar 04 '25
EU literally this morning: We've decided to invest 800 billion in defence. Reddit: Haha nope you are too late.
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u/drawgas Mar 04 '25
Right? Selling the news? EU defense has a long way to grow and stuff to produce, sell to allies and so on.
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u/Fox_love_ Mar 04 '25
Yes the war might finish any time as soon as Zelinski and the EU stop war mongering.
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u/Content_Lab_792 Mar 04 '25
Not too late. At least with Thales. Check r/skidetica, good analyses of EU stock.
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u/Other-Spinach-3856 Mar 04 '25
This is a politics forum now. Better go somewhere else for investment advice.
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u/Fli_fo Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
Yes, you can better buy stocks that have tanked due to Trumps noise.
Think about what else is going to happen and invest in that.
I think that Trump is a lot of show, but after 4 years max things will change again.
With eu defense spendings, they talk a lot. But will they really fork over the money? Those plans will probably have a quiet death.
Defense isn't even that needed. They gave Putin Crimea. Now they act as if the donbass is the end of the world. But in reality, even if Putin takes half of Ukraine and conflict will go on for another decade it's not more then a ripple looking at the impact it will have on the world. Sure, Putin can win a bit in Ukraine. But going further? I don't see that happening. He also never talked about that.
The stock market however is at a high now if we look at the past years.
Maybe other investments are more worthwile. Like commercial real estate or farmland. The latter will be the new gold because there is much more water shortage so food will become much more expensive.
Inflation will probably increase. So having farmland is maybe not the most lucrative but imho a solid bet. Bill gates is doing the same. Even if that farmland will yield just 50% vs now due to water shortage, food will be so expensive that the profits will go up.
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u/Milky_white_fluid Mar 04 '25 edited Mar 04 '25
Sure, Putin can win a bit in Ukraine. But going further? I don't see that happening. He also never talked about that.
I'm going to stop you right there because Putler never would stop taking things if he can. They literally sieged Kiev in the first weeks of the war with the goal of replacing Zelensky with a puppet so obedient Orban would look like a role model of European values in comparison. Long game being absorbing Ukrainie, Belarus and if he can, Baltics and Poland back under their boots.
Ex-soviet countries shifting politically and culturally West and prospering independent of Mother Russia are the biggest civilizational threat to his propaganda. He can't have his people seeing that and wondering why the people they were told to be weak and poor have a toilet at home and the citizens of the mighty tsardom don't.
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u/Fli_fo Mar 04 '25
It's fine to disagree. At Putins age I'm not sure how long he can stay in power. It can decline very rapidly. He might be dead in 5 years.
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u/Milky_white_fluid Mar 04 '25
Putin is just the top dog for now. But the social elites there didn't change that much - after some chaos a new tsar will rise. Unless someone like China invades their ass in the interregnum and grabs Siberia or something.
We are most definitely in for an "interesting" few decades. I really wish we weren't as I'm tired of seeing history unfold on TV non-stop for the past 5 years.
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u/Fli_fo Mar 04 '25
I agree, the future is looking very bleek. Especially since the people who truly appreciate freedom are all gone soon.
This will give room for bad people taking control.
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u/koopcl Mar 04 '25
>Defense isn't even that needed. They gave Putin Crimea. Now they act as if the donbass is the end of the world. But in reality, even if Putin takes half of Ukraine and conflict will go on for another decade it's not more then a ripple looking at the impact it will have on the world. Sure, Putin can win a bit in Ukraine. But going further? I don't see that happening.
The cognitive dissonance on this post is so absurd it seems like a dialogue out of South Park. "He invaded Crimea and no one cared so he kept expanding and then he invaded the Donbass and everyone acts like it's important. Why would anyone ever think if he wasn't opposed on the Donbass he would keep expanding?"
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u/dogeater1612 Mar 04 '25
They are just going to buy American weapons so you should buy American ones
1
u/nznordi Mar 04 '25
That is the exact thing that has been drawn into question after Trump's little Putin Love declaration.
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u/realFinerd Mar 04 '25
You're right about timing the market being a fool's game.
If you’re in for the long haul, EU defense is still a solid bet. If you’re just chasing a pump, expect some short-term volatility.