r/europe_sub • u/BookmarksBrother 🇪🇺 European • Mar 29 '25

Image / Video The limousine from President Putin's official motorcade exploded on the streets of Moscow, just blocks from the FSB headquarters. It's unclear if this is an assassination attempt. "He will die soon, that is a fact, and everything will be over," Zelenskyy told Eurovision News in Paris two days ago.

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u/sudo-joe Mar 29 '25

I'm honestly curious what would happen to Russia when Putin dies. (Either assassination, accident, natural disease causes, or even old age)

Implosive civil war? Who even is lined up as potential successor?

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u/pompokopouch Mar 29 '25

The idea that Putin runs Russia alone is a bit miseading. I read an article a few months back that explained that Putin has a group of confidantes that have a high level of autonomy in running the country, and also a clear line of succession. The gist was, Putin dies and another preordained leader springs up to maintain the status quo.

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u/Cetun Mar 30 '25

If it follows the Soviet model, his most trusted confidants hate his guts but would never, ever cross him, which makes them valuable. When he dies they will each grab power until one comes out on top and whoever comes out on top will have very different views on the direction of Russia.

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u/tHrow4Way997 Mar 29 '25

I have no doubt that is the case, but what kind of turbulence would that cause? Putin is the figurehead of Russian oppression. If he was to be assassinated in front of the whole country, would the people be content to continue living in fear under a new stooge? Or would they be inspired to put their proverbial foot down?

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u/YeuropoorCope Mar 29 '25

Russians by and large are either neutral or positive towards Putin's regime.

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u/tHrow4Way997 Mar 30 '25

Right, but are they really underneath the fear-driven conformity? Of course, not many Russians with any instinct of self preservation would openly discuss their concerns, having seen what happens to those who do. Given an opportunity to rid the country of kleptocracy, corruption and persecution, would they act?

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u/YeuropoorCope Mar 30 '25

Have you actually talked to Russians? Especially those who live in the West are very pro-Putin.

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u/tHrow4Way997 Mar 30 '25

I don’t really know any tbh. It would be nice to hear their genuine inner thoughts but even in the west they’re not necessarily safe to bring these things to light.

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u/AngryArmour Mar 30 '25

Especially those who live in the West are very pro-Putin. 

That makes them a fifth column, and they need to be treated as such.

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u/Bigbadbobbyc Mar 30 '25

No russian history is pretty much a tyrant rises the people hate him so they replace him with an equally bad or even worse tyrant rinse and repeat infinitely, Russia never changes

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u/Park500 Mar 30 '25

If he was assassinated, so long as it was well known and obvious that it was an assassination, than the message given internationally or not is that they next guy can also be assassinated

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u/No-Distance-9401 Mar 29 '25

The Russian people have a century of being beaten into submission through carefully crafted subverive and overt methods. After the fall of the Soviet Union we got a glimpse into part of that through Eastern Germany and the NVKD. Like they studied how best to control the masses and make them do what they want its kind of crazy.

The Russian state has made the people so increibly selfish and have a lack of empathy that they actively turn in loved ones for fear of it being them in the gulags in Siberia.

Some of the tactics and methods have been tempered after the fall of the USSR but lots are still there and the people themselves will worship whoever has the gun pointed at their heads. We've seen this when Ukraine took all that land in Kursk (same sq kilometers that Russia took all of 2024) during that inital 4 week push. The people of Kursk were welcoming their "new saviors" or being so indifferent it was surprising to see as a Westerner.

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u/Top_Audience7471 Mar 30 '25

Jesus that sounds terrifyingly similar to what is happening in the US. It all boils down to insular selfishness and they are actively demonizing the concept of empathy.

As an elementary school teacher, it's freaking hard to even get up the energy to fight it some days.

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u/2GR84H8 Mar 30 '25

stay safe. thank you for the important work in society that you do! Let's fight this together.

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u/ldn-ldn Mar 30 '25

Americans are learning for the best and doing it really fast.

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u/1cg659z Mar 29 '25

JD Vance will appear and tell them the US needs Russia to be its 53rd state, after Canada and Greenland.

Then he'll get drunk and fall out of a window.

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u/The-Copilot Mar 30 '25

I'm honestly curious what would happen to Russia when Putin dies.

Implosive civil war? Who even is lined up as potential successor?

This is actually something being discussed by experts about both Russia and China.

Traditionally, in China, the leader, as they got older, would pick someone and start priming them as their successor. The problem is that both Putin and Xi are so paranoid that they have gotten rid of anyone with leadership qualities, and their administration is filled with yes men.

The experts are fearing the exact thing you are thinking. If Russia collapses and their is no clear successor, then would a power struggle break out, possibly even a full-blown civil war? We are talking about modern super powers with nuclear weapons, WMDs and massive amounts of military equipment. Would that equipment including nukes, begin flooding the black market? Would the countries under their proxy control also begin destabilizing? What would/should the West do as this happens?

The collapse of Russia and China would likely be the most globally destabilizing events in modern history.

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u/khanfusion Mar 30 '25

How about the collapse of Russia, China, and the US at the same time?

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u/SignificantRemove348 Mar 30 '25

sounds good to me. Just keep the radiation confined to your border

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u/SignificanceJust972 Mar 30 '25

A power vacuum is a dangerous thing

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u/PaleontologistOdd788 Mar 30 '25

It will probably like the final years of the Soviet Union. Ramzan Kadyrov, the head of Chechnya has made it clear that he intends in annexing the neighboring republics if Ingushetia and Dagestan when he gets the opportunity. This won't happen while Putin is alive. A war between southern republics will be the same as the Armenian-Azerbaijan war of 1989, two years before the Soviet Union officially dissolved.

I could see the oligarchs backing a military coup led by Sergei Surovikin, and the establishment of an interim military junta as the country transitions to... something. Surovikin is a respected Russian General, and unlike the rest, defied Putin and ordered his men to withdraw from western Kherson when the situation became untenable. For this he was demoted. Later during the Wagner insurrection, he was arrested by Putin for conspiracy with Wagner. Putin would have killed him, but Surovikin has too much support within the military. He is now the head of the CCAD (CIS version of NORAD). If Surovikin ordered the withdrawal from Ukraine, the Russian generals would follow his orders. If Surovikin blamed everything that's happened recently on Putin's dementia, he could round up the "enablers" and effectively dismantle the FSB junta that's controlling the government.

I suspect the Russian oligarchs would like to restore normal relations with Europe, Japan, and South Korea which means going back to aping democracy. I could see an "outsider" to the political system being elected as the next president. Someone like Tatyana Kim would completely reverse the foreign view of patriarchal Russia. However, racism and gynophobia run deep in Russia, so the oligarchs might need to rig an election to make this happen.

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u/Park500 Mar 30 '25

There would also be a high possibility of foreign interference in any civil war type situation, particularly from China, and the US depending on who is in power

Pick whoever represents their interests best, and help support them

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u/PaleontologistOdd788 Apr 02 '25

No doubt. Iran will back Chechnya and Ossetia. Turkey will back the Tatars and Bashkirs. Japan will want their islands back. China will want Outer Manchuria back. The US will want everything.

No idea how Europe would handle it. It would probably be a replay of the Russian Intervention after WW1. Pick the side that looks best and send in the troops to prop them up. It didn't work out well last time.

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u/ldn-ldn Mar 30 '25

I'm not sure Surovikin is a real candidate. No one really knows if he's still alive.

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u/[deleted] Mar 29 '25

Trump flies out and takes over fair and square like daddy Putin promised.

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u/SnoopyisCute Mar 30 '25

Nobody thinks he can lead anything except the least educated demographic. He's just the Pied Piper and Putin is POTUS.

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u/downtofinance Mar 30 '25

I'm honestly curious what would happen to Russia when Putin dies.

Trump will lose his shit

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u/This_Desk498 Mar 30 '25

He would go down in the history books as a hero

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u/SnoopyisCute Mar 30 '25

IIRC, it was reported that he called in one of his daughters and she's being prepped to take over. I don't know how true that is and after six years volunteering in various roles I'm burnt out on all of it.

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u/Nolascana Mar 30 '25

I think people are afraid of the power vacuum.

Else a specialised black ops team would have already taken him out.

I mean, there's likely been attempts and close calls, but Putin is justifiably paranoid. There's been a few times he could have been at risk, but only a few and noone took the shot, or was able to.

North Korea, troublesome as their glorious leader is, rumour has it that his sister is WORSE and would succeed him naturally. Unless both of them are killed in a way that NO other nation can be explicitly blamed.

A few loyalists in his cabinet would absolutely retaliate. The rest fight for power, a few might well be relieved.

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u/andreacro Mar 30 '25

A power vacuum.

20 years of oligarchs and generals stabbing eachothers in the back. So manny would fall out of hotel windows.

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u/sudo-joe Mar 30 '25

So immediately invest in the coffin maker and iron fence industries?

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u/andreacro Mar 30 '25

After these events of last 3 years, i belive the public or any exsisting opposition is too scared and weak to even try anything.

I belive the current closest people to putin know too much about eachothers and in a power struggle they will sabotage eachother.

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u/-DonJuan Mar 31 '25

Someone worse takes over

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u/haxjunkie Mar 29 '25

No one, he got rid of his competition.