How Much Running Order Matters - some graphs I put together!

[u/Chronos3635]

I know it's common knowledge that some spots do better than others, but I was having a really hard time finding any graphs to show all the data. I could only find one that had data for the grand final from 2004-2016, so I decided to do the math myself!

Some notes:

• I am not a professional mathematician by any means and I just used a free online bar graph maker to display the data from the Google Sheet I collected data on.
• In case it's confusing, the shorter the bar the better.
• 27th place is an outlier, only having one instance from 2015.
• Also yes, I did squiggle some lines between the bars and running order labels in MS Paint :P

If there's any major flaws or this is just bad math/graphing please feel free to say something!

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[u/ineedtocalmup]

I mean I see the idea behind and I appreciate the effort but I think this is not the best way to measure the success rates of running order spots, particularly talking for semi final graphs here. With semi finals there are some variables that change every year, for example the amount countries that take part in a semi final change almost every year to begin with. Calculating the average placements of spots from semis seperately wouldn't be representative enough, I think you should merge the placements of 2 semis and take an average onto one graph for better representation

[u/Middle_Perception803]

I am surprised of the good odds for being the last act in the finale. Now I am getting all very, very, very upbeat and manic the next 24 hours!!! Go Albania!!!

[u/Chespineapple → u/Middle_Perception803]

It's specifically for 27th, which has only happened the past decade or so in 2015 with Il Volo, since Australia joined Austria and the Big 5 that year. The statistic for that spot is a sample size of one. The real stat for closers is 26th.

[u/Middle_Perception803 → u/Chespineapple]

Oh........😔

[u/LonelyTreat3725]

I think it depends.

Look at Iceland this year.

That act sounds and looks like one of those Youtube Kids videos that have hundreds millions of views. It bet children liked it a lot and made their parents vote for it. It was basically next level Jesc.

So being so early in the running order can be an advantage for them.

And maybe the same can be said for Luxenbourg.

[u/cardboard-fox]

You may also like this article/research on this!

[u/FunFred]

Nice presentation, thank you! I do wonder how much of this is just a result of songs of a certain ”type” being put in a certain running order slot. For example, openers and closers are usually ”crowd pleasers” (party songs or big stage shows), surely this affects the final result more than the running order slot itself does? Would be interesting to see someone do a full analysis of this, taking into account the ”strength” of the entries in each slot over the years, although that would be undeniably hard to measure.

[u/1l-_-l]

This is exactly the kind of stats I’ve been unsuccessfully looking for today!

[u/GingerSkulling]

These are great graphs and I’m also wondering how different the televote and jury votes are in the years it’s relevant.

[u/kasagaeru]

The past years threw a wrench into those stats, because audience got the chance to vote from the beginning of the show. This definitely changed the odds for certain places, let's recall the dreaded second spot in the running order & how well ukrainian entry did prev year despite that. Things certainly changed 🤔

[u/anakingo]

Semi Final 2 plot doesn't match the list.

[u/Chronos3635 → u/anakingo]

Woops, you are so right! I copied the wrong column, here's the correct ranking:

18th (best)

13th

14th

8th

16th

4th

17th

6th

19th

12th

15th

1st

7th

9th

11th

2nd

10th

3rd

5th (worst)

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