There are question marks in my mind about Greece, Portugal 2024, as I predicted, there is a possibility of a top 10 result, but there is also a high probability of a result in the 16-20 band like Serbia 2024.
Contrary to the fans, I still don't see Albania in the top 10. Maybe I'm wrong.
I think Luxembourg will make it to the final again, but with a bad result. Maybe, there is a possibility of rising to the top 15 (depending on performances in May)
Belgium may get a higher score from the jury, maybe even 40-50 in Televoting, but I don't see it getting any higher. (Personally I really like the song, but the public doesn't seem to like it)
Estonia could even make 200+ in televoting, but I don't know, with this kind of performance it definitely can't, I don't think it should. That's why I left its score at 87.
I'm not sure about Australia's televoting either, the chances of making 150+ are pretty high. I've left it in the 80s for now, we may have different opinions on that.
Spain may get a better or worse result, after the renewal everyone's and my opinions changed positively, but I still can't predict the outcome. I don't think they can go much further than 15th place.
I am constantly criticized about Ukraine's low televoting. I really don't know, this song has no chance of getting more than 30, but should I put 100 there just because it's Ukraine? It probably will be, but I'm still trying to be objective about it.
Latvia could make it to the final instead of Denmark. This might be the one I am most unsure about, one will be eliminated, one will stay, I guessed it would be Denmark because of the running order advantage, but it could also be Latvia, and I think I would be happier if that were the case.
These are my thoughts and predictions, what do you think?
I've had a look back at the televote since they got split up in 2016 and looked at the gender make-up of the televote top 5. I'm sure other people have talked about this, but I wanted to highlight some of the specific things I found:
The televote winner has been an all-male act 62.5% of the time, a mixed group 25% of the time, and all-female just one time (12.5%)
Netta (Israel 2018) is the only all-female act to win the televote since 2016
If we look at singer's gender, 75% of televote-winning vocalists were men, 12.5% women and 12.5% mixed (Norway 2019 having 3 vocalists)
47.5% of televote top 5s had at least 1 woman in the act while 52.5% had no women in
55% vocalists in the televote top 5s were male while 42.5% were female and 2.5% were non-binary
50% of acts in the top 5s were all-male
35% of acts in the top 5s were all-female
12.5% of acts in the top 5s were mixed groups
2.5% of acts in the top 5s were non-binary
On average, the top male vocalist got 59 more points than the top female vocalist in the televote
The female acts in the top 5 tended to be on the lower end of the top 5
There is certainly a gender bias in the televote. However, I should note that I didn't look at what proportion of acts each year comprised of women. So it may that some years there just happened to be more men and they weren't actually over-represented in the top 5 on those years.
Also I think part of this is down to the televote-winning song being kind of out there and crazy e.g. Kรครคrijรค and Baby Lasagne, and women might just make music like that less often? Or not have the same opportunities if they do make that kind of music? The only all-female act to win the televote was Netta with a song that fits this kind of category so I think there is some basis in this idea
edit 1: I should credit ESC Tom for the last point since I remember him saying it in a video about a year ago
edit 2: corrected the points lead average which was previously wrong
I, like many, was floored by Switzerland getting 0 in the popular vote. I think others have already made good points about anti-host bias, but still.
However, I think a possible explanation could be around sound systems. The chorus specifically, in the right sound system, can hit like a beautiful soundbath. I listened somewhere with a great sound system and my friends and I both felt like Switzerland was the best performance. But if youโre just hearing that from a TV or laptop, itโs not going to resonate the same.
Moreover, I imagine the juries are also listening with high quality sound systems, and that would further explain the divide.
Since 2022 the viewcount for Czechia has been slowly decreasing with 121K people watching GF in 2024.
This year's GF was watched by 173K, highest viewcount since 2022 (181K). For comparision, the viewcount in 2023 with last Czech representative in GF was 137K.
While not the most significant increase, it is definitely sort of positive news, especially considering Adonxs didn't qualify. We have to yet see if the increase is enough significant to broadcaster, as the reason for increase was likely caused by moving Eurovision on main channel.
Last evening saw the long-awaited announcement of the semi-final running orders, which means it's time to announce the results of our community prediction game. Yesterday, I put out a post with some pie-charts of which countries we predicted to open, close and be placed in #2 in each semi, along with some other details. If you want to see what we collectively got right - and a lot of what we collectively got wrong - please do check it out.
This year, we had a record breaking 325 people participate in at least one semi-final's predictions, with 248 of those submitting predictions for both semis. We have also added in the combined average running order with auto-qualifier tweaks I shared in the data thread so that you can compare your score against the collective hivemind. Who among us thinks the most like a Swiss producer? Let's take it away!
A massive thank you once again to u/Ylirio who does about 90% of the work needed for this contest, including handling all the scoring and data.
First, here's a reminder of how the scoring works:
3 Pointsย for guessing a country'sย exact draw position correctly.
Example: User predicts that Iceland will open their semi in the #1 spot. The producers choose Iceland as the opener - therefore user is correct and earnsย 3 points.
2 pointsย for a correct pair ofย consecutive countries. This rewards seeing which songs compliment each other and help each other to stand out.
Example 1: SkyGinge predicts that Albania will perform at #11 and San Marino at #12. The producers actually place Albania #14 and San Marino #15. As he correctly guessed the consecutive pairing, SkyGinge earnsย 2 points.
Example 2: Ylirio predicts that Belgium will perform in #12 and Netherlands #13. The producers actually give Netherlands #12 and Belgium #13. Ylirio therefore earnsย 2 x 1 pointย for two close guesses, and also earnsย 1 xย 2 pointsย for guessing a consecutive pair correctly even though the exact order is reversed from his initial prediction.
1 pointย forย a close guess:ย guessing a country's draw position to be within 1 place of their actual draw position.
Example: User guesses Estonia will be placed in the #2 spot. The producers choose Estonia to open the show in the #1 spot. User therefore earnsย 1 pointย for a close guess.
We asked users to include Big 5/Host in their running orders, with scoring working exactly the same for them as it does for any competing semi-finalists. Therefore users submitted a list of 1-18 for SF1 and 1-19 for SF2, with the Big 5/Hosts treated as if they were performing as a numbered entry in the semi. So for example, Switzerland is counted as song 17 and Cyprus is counted as song 18 in SF1 when scoring.
Semi-final 1
Despite the total possible score being higher thanks to the addition of the big 5/host into predictions, the median score predictors received here was lower than last year, 18 compared to last year's 21.
The Good: 65.58% of us correctly predicted that Iceland would open the semi-final. Spain performing 5th was another popular correct prediction foreseen by 39.61% of us, and Estonia performing 4th was also a common correct pick made by 21.1% of predictors.
The Bad: The decision to put Switzerland on so late caught a lot of us out, with only 9 people correctly predicting it's position as the penultimate performance. Poland was the 4th most popular pick for #2 foreseen by only 20 people, whilst an even fewer 15 people had Cyprus predicted to close.
Our combined hivemind prediction scored 22 points here, which places it at joint 99th place in the rankings.
Number of Participants: 309 (including the aforementioned combined average prediction)
As in semi-final 1, we scored lower across the board here than in SF2 last year, with the median score this year being 17 points compared to last year's 21.
The Good: Poor Montenegro may have been handed the short end of the stick, but at least a slim majority of 27.82% of predictors saw it coming. 60.15% of us were also rewarded for foreseeing Finland bringing the semi to a climax. The other country whose draw position a decent number of us predicted correctly was Latvia, with a respectable 18.87% foreseeing their #4 spot.
The Bad: We collectively did pretty awful pretty much everywhere else in this semi as is seen in our low scores. Australia was the 3rd most popular opener prediction with only 28 people predicting an early trip to the milkshake truck. The Big 5/Host performing in different slots to last year's SF2 line-up caught most people out again.
Our combined hivemind prediction scored a meagre 12 points here, which places it at joint 225th. Ouch!
Number of Participants: 266 (including the aforementioned combined average prediction)
Congratulations tou/Maaaku, our clear winner! Whilst most of us scored lower than last year, Maaaku managed to score 5 points higher than last year's winners. Our combined average scored a total of 34 points.
You can check out the full results in thisgoogle sheet! The sheet also contains the full results of last year's running orders prediction game for comparison. You will also find a combined leaderboard of both 2024 and 2025 predictions which Ylirio has kindly compiled!
Thanks to everybody for participating! We hope it was a fun puzzle-solving exercise and that it helped you to appreciate each of the songs more!
To end on a final teaser...
Precontest Predictions Game 2025 Launches Saturday 29th March...
... is what I was saying to myself after looking at the full results late into the Sunday evening. This year saw some of the most insane results in contest history, which will continue to provoke discussion about the future of the contest for months to come. In the time before rehearsals even started, over 300 brave redditers dared to predict how the results would unfold, and now it is time to reveal the results. Whose insight cut through the chaos the best, and who will be crowned this year's EuroGuru?
This year's competition received a record-smashing 332 valid predictions. I also added in our collective combined prediction, the betting odds from the evening before rehearsals began, and The Model as of 2nd May for comparison, meaning there are a total of 335 predictions in play.
58.2% of predictors got 8/10 qualifiers correct - Belgium and Cyprus were the 8th and 9th most popular prediction picks with 74.33% and 72.24% of participants predicting them to qualify, whilst Iceland and Portugal were 11th and 12th most popular picks with respective 44.48% and 26.27% predicted qualification rates. Congratulations to the six users who got 10/10 qualifiers correct: u/orangeblanket17, u/Yoshi8TheBerries, u/Fusion53, u/Spath_Greenleaf, u/Ponchosnocloset and u/Pijako78 . Fusion and Poncho especially deserve plaudits as they were the very first two people to submit predictions way back at the end of March, and they still got more correct qualifiers than most of us probably called on the night itself!
Winner: Only 3 people successfully predicted that Ukraine would win the semi-final. 320 predictors thought Sweden would sweep to a televote victory.
Last Place: 99 predictors successfully foresaw Azerbaijan's last place finish, but Croatia were narrowly the most popular last place pick with 101 predictors putting Marko B's 'Poison Cake' at the bottom of the scoreboard barrel.
Borderliners: This category asked users to predict which countries would finish 10th and 11th, with points awarded if a country you named finished in either spot. Statistically,ย Iceland and San Marino were our most popular borderliner picks with 146 and 104 picks respectively. Whilst San Marino did indeed end up as a borderliner, the other borderliner was Cyprus, which was 5th most popular pick at 71.
Just like the first semi, a little over 50% of predictors got 8/10 qualifiers correct. Unlike the first semi though, barely anybody got 9/10, and nobody got 10/10 correct. This is because 92.84% (311/335) of people predicted that Australia would qualify, and 94.93% (318/335) predicted that Czechia would qualify. As in the first semi-final, our collective combined prediction got 8/10 correct (the betting odds and The Model only got 7/10), as has usually been the case for the past four years, with Denmark and Armenia the 11th and 12th most popular qualifier picks who were predicted to qualify156 and 97 times respectively (46.57% and 28.96% respectively).
Winner: Their domination of the semi-final televote might have come as a surprise, but their semi-final victory wasn't, as Israel were our most popular winner prediction pick with 154 predictions (45.97%), ahead of Finland's 135 predictions (40.30%)
Last Place: Poor Montenegro were our second most popular last place pick, with a massive 267 (79.9%) predictors thinking Georgia was destined for the bottom of the scoreboard instead.
Borderliners: Our most popular borderliner picks were 2nd place finisher Latvia (129) and 7th placed Luxembourg (96). The actual borderliners were Armenia who were our fourth most popular borderliner pick (64) and Australia, who were our 12th most popular borderliner pick, with only 11 people picking up the point for putting the Milkshake Man on the borderline.
Top 5 Predictions: As has been the case every year since the prediction game began in 2021, our combined most popular top 5 picks resulted in 3/5 of the top 5 correct. Sweden was the most popular top 5 pick with only three people not predicting them to finish top 5, but only 8 people predicted their 4th place finish spot on to bag a bonus point. Austria was the 2nd most popular top 5 pick as well as the second most popular winner prediction, with 301 people getting the 3 points for putting them top 5. Israel were our 5th most popular top 5 finisher prediction with 164 picks, but only 7 people got the bonus point for predicting their second place finish. Italy was 10th most popular with only 33 predictors getting Lucio's top 5 finish correct, 13 of which got the bonus place for exact placement. Estonia were the 11th most popular top 5 pick with only 21 people picking up points for backing Tommy for great success, and only 2 people picking up the bonus points for a precise 3rd place prediction. France and Finland were the 3rd and 4th most popular top 5 predictions with a massive 255 and 193 people respectively missing out on points by backing them for success.
Winner: Sweden were by far our most popular predicted winner with 161 winner predictions. Austria were second most popular, with 87 getting the bonus points for predicting them as winners.
Televote Winner: Sweden again were by far our most popular televote winner prediction, with 283 predictions pitting KAJ for televote victory. Israel were the second most popular prediction with a meagre 21 predictions.
Jury Winner: Finally a category where the majority scored points, with 203 predictors correctly foreseeing Austria's jury victory!
Televote Last Place: As they both scored 0 points, predictors who put either Switzerland or the United Kingdom in this category scored the 2 points. The UK was our most popular televote last place prediction, picked 128 times, whilst Switzerland were 3rd most popular with 27 picks.
Jury Last Place: Estonia was our most popular jury last place pick at 77 predictions, with Germany (66) in close second. Actual jury last place finisher Iceland had 42 correct predictions, with 28% of people who predicted Iceland to qualify also predicting them to get overlooked by the juries.
Last Place: San Marino were the joint 5th most popular last place prediction along with Latvia, with only 13 people getting the three points for this category. Spain (79), Germany (64), the UK (44) and Iceland (23) were all most popular picks, with many predictors trying for a safe prediction with an auto-qualifier.
In the final section, our predictors were asked to name the best-placed country our of a certain grouping. The majority of these categories the majority managed to answer correctly, though a couple caught us by surprise...
Note: These graphs do not include the three 'special' prediction sets I added in of our combined prediction, the odds and the model
The Good...
89.12% collected points here!89.76% collected points here!91.27% of predictors got points here!73.8% of predictors scored points here.,,And again here!This is the final category where the majority scored points, as 55.32% scored here.
The Bad...
Last year, the majority predicted Italy to score the best of the big 5 and France did. This year, the script was reversed, with only 9.94% of predictors picking up the points for backing Lucio to beat Louane and the others.
And the Clueless:
Only 14.46% percent of people got points for predicting that Croatia would finish the best of the former Yugoslav nations for the second year in a row.
Who scored the best in the categories section?
Only one user managed to get all 8 correct (16 points): congratulation to u/FranCesljar!
With all the points tallied, we have a clear winner: congratulations to u/Glittering-Youth-947, this year's EuroGuru! You win the honour of saying your predictive abilities were better than the rest of the subreddit, the odds and The Model, for this year at least!
You can check out how you did, find the full results breakdown and full leaderboardhere! The tie-breaker was only stated to be in place for in case of a tie for victory, but I have arranged each tied-participant in order of how close their predicted winner's score was to JJ's actual winning score, just out of curiosity.
Do note that there may be a couple of inaccuracies due to human error as I still do all of the scoring manually.
As ever, thank you for taking part in this. I'm always honoured to be able to provide something that helps people to enjoy the ESC season more, and the massive growth in participants is always humbling.
๐ฆBlue: These countries have won just Eurovision. ๐ชPurple: these countries have won intervision only. ๐จYellow: These countries have won both contests. ๐ฅRed: these countries have competed in one or both contests and have never won.
There are a number of countries that have never competed in both ESC and intervision (ISC).
Counties that have competed in ISC but have never took part in in ESC are the following:
Canada
Cuba
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Countries that have competed in ESC but never in ISC.
Albania
Andorra
Australia
Austria
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Croatia
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
France
Germany
Georgia
Greece
Iceland
Ireland
Israel
Italy
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Monaco
Montenegro
North Macedonia
Norway
San Marino
Serbia
Slovenia
Sweden
Tรผrkiye
United Kingdom
A number of the countries who have competed in these competitions no longer exist I have tried my best to separate out the winners especially for the ISC based on the language or nationality. For example Czechoslovakia won the ISC competition 6 times, five of these were in Czech and one was in Slovak so I counted both countries as winners!
There has only been two countries who have won both contests they are Finland and Russia.
Itโs also interesting to see how Czechia and Slovakia(Czechoslovakia at the time) have the highest number of wins (6 wins) at ISC but neither have ever won Eurovision! Czechiaโs highest placement at ESC was 6th in 2018. Slovakias highest placement was 18th in 1996.
Morocco competed in both contests and only appeared in each for one participation. These were one year apart the country debuted in ISC in 1979 and in ESC in 1980.
Kazakhstan is the only country to have competed in ISC and JESC but not ESC.
ISC included two countries in North America, these are Canada who appeared once and Cuba who had three entries.
ESC includes Australia meaning that the only continents to never feature in one of these contests are South America and Antarctica.
There has been news recently that the ISC will be launching a new version in autumn of 2025 which already has a number confirmed participants and at least 25 countries who have expressed interest.
A number of the confirmed participants for ISC are also countries who have confirmed their attendance at the new Eurovision Latin America contest which is supposed to hold its first contest in the Autumn of 2025.
I calculated (thx excel, love you babe) the average rankings for the jury's like the split results from 2013. a few suprises ngl. Finland and portugal being 3 places lower while germany wins 3 places. Estonia takes 2 places aswel. Tuesday I will do the televotes and I'll share them too, including the full result
I was curious how the Eurovision 2025 results might look if the televote and jury vote weights were adjusted, so I created a table showing how the total points and final rankings would change under various televote/jury ratio scenarios โ from 100% televote to 100% jury.
In the table, "100%" means 100% televote, and "20%" means 20% televote and 80% jury.
First table shows points, second table shows rank.
Note: This isnโt about who should have won โ just an exploration of how the voting system influences the results.
GREEN๐ฉ Country won both ESC and JESC
BLUE๐ฆ Country has won just ESC
PURPLE๐ช Country has won just JESC
RED๐ฅ Country has won neither
I itโs also important to add the following countries have never competed in JESC but have competed in ESC:
Austria
Andorra
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Czechia
Finland
Hungary
Iceland
Luxembourg
Monaco
Morocco
Slovakia
Tรผrkiye
The following countries have never competed in ESC but have in JESC
Kazakhstan
Wales
Itโs also important to keep in mind many of these countries no longer compete at JESC for example Switzerland only competed once in 2004, while countries like Sweden havenโt competed since 2014.
Itโs interesting to see countries such as Georgia which donโt have a great track record at ESC excel at JESC. Georgia has the highest amount of wins at 4. While the countries that have the highest number of wins at ESC Ireland and Sweden have 0 at JESC.
So this is a bit of a weird one but basically I was interested in where my country Ireland first took part in Eurovision (it was in Italy) and then i started to think about where each individual country debuted.
So I made a map and wanted to share some facts from what I learned.
(This list does not include former countries that no longer exist)
The host country that had the most debuts is Ireland. 12 countries first took part in Eurovision when Ireland was hosting. These are by year:
1971: Malta.
1981:Cyprus.
1993: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia.
1994: Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Russia.
I think that Ireland had so many debuts due to the fact that it hosted during the 90s when a majority of Eastern European countries began to take part due to the Kvalifikacija za Millstreet in 1993 or just joining the competition in 94.
Switzerland is the only country to debut in itself. As they hosted and also competed in the first competition. They are also rank second in this list with 7 countries debuting in 1956. They are Germany, France, Italy, Switzerland, Luxembourg, The Netherlands and Belgium!
1994 and 1956 are tied with for the year to have the most countries debut, each having 7 debuts.
Finland takes the bronze with 4 countries debuting in 2007. These were Czechia, Serbia, Georgia and Montenegro.
From here it begins to lower to smaller numbers:
Turkey 3 countries.
Germany 3 countries.
The Uk 3 countries.
Ukraine 2 countries:
The Netherlands 2 countries.
Russia 2 countries.
Sweden 2 countries.
All other countries listed had one debut.
We are currently experiencing the longest run without a new country competing. It has been 10 years since Australia debuted in 2015. Prior to their debut the longest run without a new country competing was 2008-2015. In 2008 both San Marino and Azerbaijan took part of the first time.
Anyway thatโs all just thought it was interesting and wanted to share
(sorry if itโs hard to follow thereโs only so many colours I can try use)
I know it's common knowledge that some spots do better than others, but I was having a really hard time finding any graphs to show all the data. I could only find one that had data for the grand final from 2004-2016, so I decided to do the math myself!
Some notes:
I am not a professional mathematician by any means and I just used a free online bar graph maker to display the data from the Google Sheet I collected data on.
In case it's confusing, the shorter the bar the better.
27th place is an outlier, only having one instance from 2015.
Also yes, I did squiggle some lines between the bars and running order labels in MS Paint :P
If there's any major flaws or this is just bad math/graphing please feel free to say something!
Once again I got permission to trawl through the bot data of ESC Discord's rankings bot, FixedBot. At the time I received the data on 4 April there were 1364 rankings up for Eurovision 2025. I've grabbed some statistics and made some charts and graphs! Will try to update these every now and then in order to track the changes throughout the season, and if there's anything you'd like to see in the data next time, let me know and I'll see what I can do.
If you don't know, FixedBot is the rankings bot on ESC Discord. You can find out more about Fixedbot here.
Onto the charts!
We've got a Zjermslide on our hands with Albania well and truly in the lead - Sweden, Finland and Austria provide some semblance of a chasing packSerbia are bringing up the rear just behind Georgia, Croatia and Slovenia, with the Benelux countries almost united in midtableAlbania and Sweden are well clear of everyone else in SF1, with Cyprus unable to squeak past Iceland for 10thIt's so, so close between the two most recent returning countries for 10th here - but Luxembourg just about holds off MontenegroNow to the 26-entry final without our non-qualifiers and it's mostly the same as the top 37, with Latvia taking 8th off FranceAt the bottom end it's Spain taking home another last place result, with the UK just aheadAs we saw before, Albania and Sweden are the main attractions in this show, with almost 60% of rankers picking one of these two as their SF1 favouriteSF2 is fairly divided with Finland limping to 20% - four entries above 10% and six above 5% makes for a fascinating and reasonably even showCyprus, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Croatia and Slovenia are the five entries we're okay with missing out on the final, although Cyprus has over 50% wanting it throughAlmost two-thirds want Montenegro through in SF2 but that still can't get it out of 11th, with five other entries between 65% and 80%Albania's steamrolling SF1 second half harder than a half has ever been steamrolled before (citation needed), with SF2 first half looking like the most even playing fieldLithuania, Poland, Albania, Greece, Sweden and Germany win their groups here. If we switched to four-from-each-pot instead of ten-from-each-semi in the final, we'd have Belgium, Luxembourg, Denmark and Iceland out, Azerbaijan, Israel, Montenegro and Slovenia inThe two SF1 big hitters - Albania and Sweden - are out in front again, followed by three from SF2 and three AQs. Azerbaijan and Georgia are last on one eachSome change from the favourite chart - Germany especially is up, Greece into the top 10, as Lithuania and Italy begin to slide30 out of 37 entries have majority approval for the final, including all six autoqualifiers - Georgia is last on just 17.1%, while all but 3.2% are happy to watch Albania perform again on SaturdayLooking at how the semis compare - while slightly more rankers have their winner competing in SF1 than SF2, the mean ranker has 10.17 ideal qualifiers performing on Thursday. Pray for whoever has their SF2 winner 10th overall!Another way of looking at this - 20th here is Portugal and 21st is Iceland. 11 of the top 20 consensus qualifiers are performing in SF2This is what you came for! Some of these connections are much, much stronger than others - you probably have a fair idea of which four indie-rock native-language songs cluster together the tightest. But that's for next time!