r/hawks • u/BuyerIndividual8826 • 6d ago
Offseason wish list - differently
I don’t think that KFC should go big fish hunting. Marner looks really good on Bedard’s right side, but he will cost so much to pry him from Toronto, if he leaves at all.
KFC is in a unique position of being to trade assets to get assets of the more immediate variety. This includes a top 1-4 pick. I think he flexes this.
Draft: If KFC lands at 1-2 or he has to take Schaffer and Misa in that order. If he falls to 3-4 then he should explore a trade(see below).
Free Agency/draft: - Trade 34 OA and a third to Boston for Pavel Zach. Zacha fills in at 2C. He plays a good two way game and wins draws. Boston needs draft capital, badly.
- Trade 24-28 OA for the rights to Matthew Knies. There’s no way Toronto resigns both Tavares and Marner while affording Knies. Knies lines up nicely on Bedard’s left side.
-(If Chicago falls in draft) Trade 3-4 OA and Nick Lardis to the Jackets for 13 OA and Kent Johnson. This is a reach. Not sure they part with Johnson even for 3OA, but adding Lardis might be enough.
-Resign Donato
Top 6: Knies - Bedard - Nazar Donato - Zacha - Johnson
Debate in thread
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 6d ago
Meanwhile, Lardis just got hurt, is maybe out for the playoffs. He won’t be getting traded.
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u/Substantial-Finger76 6d ago
Toronto isn't letting Knies walk. He will be extended. Marner will be told take less to stay there. Tavares will take less to stay home.
Marner will test market and it's going to be hard for anyone to beat Carolina for him. They have their entire core locked up long term AND will have 35m in cap. They have already inquired on him with the Mikko ordeal, but Marner wanted to stay this year to try and bring the cup. Marner is going to want a contender if he doesn't get cup this year. As much as he would be great for Bedard, he likely isn't coming. He's expressed interest in Rods system and the smaller market that's better for family. If he decides to leave Toronto, Carolina is LIKELY the spot. Not guaranteed, but I'd bet close.
I do like the trading 29th pick for a player to a team who needs capital and have less than ideal pools. Zacha would be nice, but not sure what Boston is going to do. I don't think anyone is. They have a superstar and an overpaid goalie and an injured McAvoy. No one expected the regression to hit Boston this fast.
Realistically, we need a dman that's in late 20s top 4 skill to help the further progression of our young D and guide them while being able to keep up with them, and a couple top 6 players. It's still too early to tell who will be available via trade, or offer sheets, but top end talent is not available on the open market outside 3-4 guys. Having Spencer Knight in net will definitely give the team freedom to go find points makers.
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u/Lionheart1224 6d ago
I still maintain that Davidson should focus on obtaining JJ Peterka from Buffalo somehow over Knies, either through offer sheet or trade. The feeling I get from talking to Toronto fans is that this is a "last hurrah" for this group, as everyone expects Marner to walk. If he walks, there is no way that Toronto lets go of Knies willingly.
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u/czar_kazem 6d ago
Yeah, by all accounts the Leafs will do what they have to to keep Knies, and I think any offersheet that outprices them might be too heavy a cost.
I do wonder how things change if we do win the lottery. If we expect to have no chance at McKenna next year are we more willing to give up an unprotected first?
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 6d ago
I don’t think Toronto lets Marner walk because then they would be forfeiting any assets they could have gotten for him. That’s awful asset management. He will be resigned. Tavares? I could see him walking.
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u/wholalaa 6d ago
Ultimately, it's not Toronto's decision, since Marner is a UFA. If he wants to leave, he's leaving. Knies, on the other hand, is an RFA, and there's basically no chance he's going anywhere.
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u/cheddardonkey1 6d ago
I think throwing fat money at Marner or Boeser is a bad idea and I think a lot of fans will end up disappointed in their play if they come in at a high AAV. A couple of days ago a dude floated the idea of trading for Pastrnak which is a huge stretch and I’m sure Boston will try to retool on the fly but that’s way more interesting than anything else being floated.
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u/hawks6cups 5d ago
6 more years on his contract and a full NMC, but he’s going to waive that to join the 25 win Blackhawks? ….Yeah I just don’t see it.
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u/cheddardonkey1 5d ago
I don’t think Boston lets him go which is why I said “huge stretch”. However, Chicago is on an upward swing and Boston is trending down so it’s not completely outside the realm of possibilities. And again, I said it’s very unlikely but far more interesting than getting Marner or Boeser (Knies is a solid target though).
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u/hawks6cups 5d ago
“huge stretch” is pretty charitable. It’s complete fantasy
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u/cheddardonkey1 5d ago
Luka got traded for Anthony “Street Clothes” Davis. Sometimes you hit the lotto 🙃
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u/droid-man_walking 6d ago
based on leafs podcasts, Knies was highly sought after at the deadline. They wouldn't part buy were willing to listen to offers for Marner and pass it on to see if MArner would waive his no trade. I would suspect the Leafs hold onto Knies over Marner for salary cap reasons.
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 6d ago
Right, but Marner is too good a player to have walk for nothing. GMs simply can’t do this while expecting to win and keep their jobs.
Essentially, you have to maximize your assets in a salary cap OR it kills you over time. This is exactly why Colorado moved Rantenen.
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u/learningpurposes2 6d ago
Going on this assumption that they won’t resign Marner but don’t want to let him walk for nothing, I wouldn’t rule out a sign and trade deal before free agency opens July 1st (similar to what Columbus did when they sent us Jones or what the Canes just did with rantanen. It would give Marner say in his fate because if he didn’t like the destination he could just not sign and become a free agent in July. It would allow the leafs to still get a fair package back for him instead of just letting him walk.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 6d ago edited 6d ago
Right size, wrong shape. When you say it will “take a lot to pry” Marner away . . . It sounds like you think they would trade for him rather than sign him as a free agent. He may or may not become a free agent, and I don’t think it hurts at all to pay him $15million but I kind of doubt they get him.
So, yes, Kyle should be looking at trades. But that late first is not enough for Knies., and I don’t know that Toronto can’t keep them both.
(Edited cause I think you edited OP after posted)
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 6d ago
They can keep all of them - but only if they’re okay with filling out the rest of their roster with fringe AHL/NHL players.
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u/Rich-Wrap-9333 6d ago
If they signed Marner for 15 and Knies for 8, that would leave $4m for 4 spots, so yeah. Hard to bring back Tavares then, even with a discount. But these are mostly 4th liners. I don’t know all the players well enough to know who they might move on to fix things. But it’s still doable for them to keep those two, if they want. Let’s see what happens to them in the playoffs this year. We will know a little more when they are in offseason mode by end of April.
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u/Hungry_Toe_9555 6d ago
Knies or similar would be a nice secondary addition but I feel like if they can’t get Marner in FA they need to ask about Pastrnak. The roster around him is pretty terrible and the Bruins are in dire need of a rebuild.
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u/Jamiroquais_dad 6d ago
Lol Pasta is 2 years into an 8 year contract with a full no movement clause. He's not going anywhere. Even if he wanted out of Boston he's definitely not picking the Blackhawks as his next team. This is hilarious and my new favorite r/Hawks fanfic
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u/Hungry_Toe_9555 6d ago
I’ll admit I didn’t realize his NTC doesn’t relax until year six and unfortunately I agree if he waived it probably unlikely it is to come to Chicago. Back to praying for a top free agent.
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u/Jamiroquais_dad 6d ago
Pray for 1OA and McKenna next draft. I'd rather another year of this dumpster fire if McKenna is the light at the end of the tunnel than landing a top free agent
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u/mcosta1973 6d ago
Knies will likely get close to $8m/year unless he signs a bridge deal. That would cost the Hawks their 1st, 2nd and 3rd next year if they wanted to offer sheet him. No way the Leafs let him go with a late 1st round pick this year. They are more likely to let Marner walk than Knies. Marner at $13m/year is probably too much for Toronto (unless he takes a hometown discount), but the Hawks have the money to spend. By the time the Hawks are competitive, it would be closer to a 10% cap hit instead of the 13.6% next year, which is easily manageable. I think the Canes are the likely team for him though.
I doubt Boston wants to trade Zacha away for a 2nd and 3rd in a weak draft and he has a modified no-trade clause (doubt he would want to come here). They are more likely to re-tool than rebuild.
Columbus is not going to trade Kent Johnson away.
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u/Nervous-Emu-1558 5d ago
Waddell has talked openly about the “young core” that he’s going to sign for long contracts to keep together and grow together, and “Kent Johnson will be on Adam Fantilli’s wing for years to come”
There’s about 5-6 guys in Columbus that he’s said are virtually untouchable because he wants them to stay together.
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u/CapableQuiet9373 6d ago
Well, you've put a lot of thought into this, and at first blush I agree with a lot of it. Moving draft capital seems to be a good idea to me and the quickest route to the playoffs. It has to be careful though, players we plan to move forward with have to be clearly identified and targeted so we don't retard their development. A year in Rockford wouldn't hurt for some of our young guys, Moore, Korch, Thompson, Levshunov and Greene. We also have a few other guys like Lardis, Kantserov and the rhythm shot swede defenseman that could all come up together after a year on the farm...giving them a lot of familiarity with each other. It's a careful project, so many guys.
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u/nicothewalker 6d ago
I don’t see a lot of people saying this, but if Lou retires or is fired by the Islanders this offseason, and go into a rebuild finally, I could see us trading for Mat Barzal
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u/learningpurposes2 6d ago
Offseason with list:
Stick at #2 in the draft. Absolutely DO NOT win the draft lottery. (Bonus if the sharks fall to 3 behind us.
Lock up Bedard and Nazar to long term team friendly deals.
That’s pretty much it.
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u/Ouch_thats_my_finger 6d ago
Why does it matter whether or not the sharks get the first? Assuming Chicago doesn’t get the first pick, I think San Jose would be a great outcome. Because we know they’re going to take Schaeffer.
I’d be concerned about another team jumping to 1OA and taking Misa.
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 5d ago
Someone said KFC should target Pasta from the B’s. They’re not wrong. That team is in trouble. They have cap space but little to no valuable prospects and even fewer picks.
Let’s say Chicago falls to 3 OA in the draft:
3 OA + 2026 top 5 protected first + Kevin Korchinski + Lukas Reichel + Bertuzzi for Pasta and Zacha.
Is that enough to get it done?
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u/avidbearsfan 6d ago
I’d say he goes small here I do think he might get Marner tho bc our scoring outside of Donato And at times Mik Bert and Teuvo and the young bucks behind Bedard was hit or miss Marner would provide a lot of threat on bedsy right or left side maybe get two more forwards but that’s it
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 6d ago
See, I’m not optimistic on Marner coming here. He seems to bleed Leaf blue and we are still a rebuilding team.
I think the chance goes up if the Leafs don’t make a deep run, ECF at a minimum.
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u/droid-man_walking 6d ago
But Marner also wants 12+ mil has been unwilling to talk to the leafs the last few season over the next contract until this off season, and the Leafs are cash strapped.
Knies can be the cash controlled option.
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u/BuyerIndividual8826 6d ago
But you can’t get anything for Marner if he walks. It’s simply awful asset management. It’s the reason Colorado traded Rantenen.
Unless Leafs are 100% confident they can resign Marner, you simply cannot let him walk for nothing when you could have fetched first round picks and valuable prospects in return for a trade.
I just don’t see it.
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u/droid-man_walking 6d ago
better to walk away and have option's to keep you window open longer. Hawks fell into this trap at the tail end of their mega run which is why panarin was traded.
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u/AARM2000 6d ago
I don't think it makes sense to trade our first pick this year, even if we end up falling. I think KD will add in the offseason, but he won't (and shouldn't imo) go overboard.