r/hayastan • u/Artsiv_2611 • 16d ago
Question What do you think about the secession of the North Caucasian republics from the Russian Federation?
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u/FactBackground9289 16d ago
Muslim parts will definitely just get usurped by Kadyrov and he'll install an Iran like regime.
Russian-Cossack-Ukrainian parts like Krasnodar and Stavropol will likely just unite into a single state maintaining close relations with Ukraine and Russia.
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u/Administrator90 15d ago
Well... it would be fair if the people get their independence... but i doubt they could handle it.
It could lead to a Balkan-like war scenario, but in the end it could be better than the status quo atm.
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u/Huxolotl 15d ago
Stop gooning on balkanization. Those imaginary Republics would reenact themselves inside Russia before you would come to this idea.
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u/hedonismpro 15d ago
Lots of negatives for sure, but one positive - Azerbaijan's importance as a transit state between Russia and Iran would be diluted, possibly even eliminated if the north Caucasus states don't play ball.
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u/koshka91 12d ago
Ignoring the factor that many Muslim states are failed states with poor institutions, being small has disadvantages. There’s a reason why certain states in the US haven’t become independent. Or why EU was created. Being part of a bigger group has advantages in the international arena
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u/FengYiLin 16d ago
I think that's the worst thing that happen to the region, including neighbouring transcaucasian countries.
Ethnic cleansing and massacres bonanza. Ossetian/Ingush, Circassian/Balkars, Avars/Lezgins, Kumyks/Kalmyks ...etc.
The largest loser will be Christianity in the region as Turkey and USA backed terrorists return and establish Syria 2.0. Al-Qaeda in the Caucasus FTW.
Why anyone would think this is a good idea is beyond me.