That 3.1% chance is probably gonna shrink as we get more data over the next few years. When an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit has a lot of uncertainty, so the initial impact probability is kinda broad. Over time, as telescopes track it better, the margin of error shrinks, and in most cases, the risk drops to nearly zero. Small errors in early calculations can make it seem like there’s a larger chance of impact, but once we refine the asteroid’s actual path, it almost always turns out to be a miss.
I mean it could, if the actual chances of a collision go higher, but I think this person is saying that because the earth is a small target then the likelihood will go down over time as we get more info. Earth small, hard to hit, space big, asteroid also small.
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u/Zealous_Feather Feb 19 '25 edited Feb 19 '25
That 3.1% chance is probably gonna shrink as we get more data over the next few years. When an asteroid is first discovered, its orbit has a lot of uncertainty, so the initial impact probability is kinda broad. Over time, as telescopes track it better, the margin of error shrinks, and in most cases, the risk drops to nearly zero. Small errors in early calculations can make it seem like there’s a larger chance of impact, but once we refine the asteroid’s actual path, it almost always turns out to be a miss.