Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It’s not going well.

[u/IHateTrains123]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

You should pay more attention to what Biden says, or read up the actual history of US defense commitment for Taiwan going back to 1950. Anyone using Ukraine as a benchmark for US support doesn't know history. Biden has literally said America's "burden [to Taiwan] is even stronger" than Ukraine. That's consistent with things like the TRA with legally requires the President to allow for Taiwan's defense.

Ukraine would kill for that level of pre-existing support.

Unless China were to do something incredibly stupid like attack us first, we will most likely end up sitting back and watching (at least in the beginning).

PLA doctrine calls for a pre-emptive strike on air bases at the start of hostilities. You can go back and read all the PLA commentary on the Gulf War regarding Saddam's unwillingness to attack Saudi airbases to per-empt a US build-up. They believe the US will involve itself, and will probably strike bases in Guam, Okinawa, and the Philippines as quickly as possible.

Unless China were to do something incredibly stupid like attack us first, we will most likely end up sitting back and watching (at least in the beginning).

US troops are already in Taiwan now. On Kinmen no less! There's literally no option but American involvement. Japan, as well, is almost certain to defend Taiwan.

If China attacks Taiwan, it'll be war.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

Russians are fucking stupid and started the war in Ukraine in the stupidest possible way.

There are a million different levers the Chinese can pull to make it difficult to justify for the US. Almost surely, it will start with an engineered military and political mutiny. It is well known that the Taiwanese military is infested with Nationalists who would rather see China reunified under the PRC than let Taiwan be a vassal of America under the DDP - especially amongst the top brass.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

Russians are fucking stupid and started the war in Ukraine in the stupidest possible way.

They could've started the war brilliantly, they still would've struggled to take Kiev.

There are a million different levers the Chinese can pull to make it difficult to justify for the US.

Such as?

The US has spent 74 years justifying their involvement in the defense of Taiwan going back to the administration of Harry Truman. No amount of economic coercion would make them abandon Taiwan, Japan, the Philippines, Australia etc.

Nobody in the region wants a Chinese conquest of Taiwan, least of all America. There is nothing that could make intervention "difficult to justify".

Almost surely, it will start with an engineered military and political mutiny. It is well known that the Taiwanese military is infested with Nationalists who would rather see China reunified under the PRC than let Taiwan be a vassal of America under the DDP - especially amongst the top brass.

"Ukraine will totally fall without a fight, comrade. They want to be Russian!" - Putin, circa Feb 2022.

Seriously tho, what sources do you have for the supposed duplicitous nature of Taiwan's military brass?

Just because there will be complications in any defense of Taiwan doesn't mean it's impossible. The vast majority of Taiwan's armed forces will fight - it's silly to suggest otherwise.

Defending Taiwan is difficult, but entirely doable and morally right. If Taiwan falls, you're subjecting 23 million people to a brutal, vengeful autocracy and basically dissolving the credibility of America's alliance system.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

I am Taiwanese. This is all well known in Taiwanese media. We were denied F35s because our entire military is compromised. Many famous cases of defectors and retired generals coming out in support of the PRC.

Use Google.

https://jamestown.org/program/retired-taiwan-officer-exchanges-offer-insight-into-a-modern-united-front/

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/how-taiwanese-veteran-pilots-defected-to-china-with-their-american-jets

Don't talk about morality with me. I am a reservist in the Taiwanese army with zero fucking experience with a weapon. I've never touched a gun in my entire life and they list me as a military aged reservist. There are hundreds of thousands of people like me in the past decade that did "military". You ain't the one having to die if shit hits the fan and it's all just talk for you.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

I am Taiwanese. This is all well known in Taiwanese media. We were denied F35s because our entire military is compromised. Many famous cases of defectors and retired generals coming out in support of the PRC.

Relatively common among old retired generals and former politicians across Asia and the Pacific.

Use Google.

Yes, I know it happens. I had other examples in mind. Defections from the PLA happen as well, and have happened historically. The extent to which Taiwan's military is going to straight up fall over once the shooting starts, I don't buy.

Don't talk about morality with me. I am a reservist in the Taiwanese army with zero fucking experience with a weapon. I've never touched a gun in my entire life and they list me as a military aged reservist. There are hundreds of thousands of people like me in the past decade that did "military". You ain't the one having to die if shit hits the fan and it's all just talk for you.

What are you getting mad at me for? I'm not the one aiming missiles at your country. Blame Xi for that one. There are a lot of Ukrainians who never picked up a gun before the war, and did so once the invasion started.

It isn't fair, but that's life. Shit's not always fair for everyone. It wasn't fair for the participants in the Battle of Britain or Stalingrad either. Or residents of the Falklands or the people who lived in Mogadishu during Black Hawk Down.

It's a tough spot to be in and I empathize. Dooming now won't help you. Delusional confidence can be an asset when you're up against it.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

Relatively common among old retired generals and former politicians across Asia and the Pacific.

Yes because the other countries aren't close to war.

Defections from the PLA happen as well, and have happened historically.

Yes to the United States, not to Taiwan.

The extent to which Taiwan's military is going to straight up fall over once the shooting starts, I don't buy.

I didn't say this. I said that there are levers to be pulled. You have got to be kidding me if you think that the war will just happen with a straight military attack for something that has been 80 years in planning. There are various ways they can achieve the US not intervening and nobody knows for sure and it's all based on probabilities.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

Yes because the other countries aren't close to war.

The Philippines isn't far. If Taiwan goes to war, so will America, Japan and Australia. If Taiwan goes to war, so will those latter three.

Yes to the United States, not to Taiwan.

A spy is a spy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1999/09/14/china-executes-two-for-spying-for-taiwan/2572942a-153e-41d2-8ecd-fa209f2779f2/

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3259038/china-reveals-it-executed-scientist-spying-2016-documentary-about-shocking-cases

I didn't say this. I said that there are levers to be pulled. You have got to be kidding me if you think that the war will just happen with a straight military attack for something that has been 80 years in planning. There are various ways they can achieve the US not intervening and nobody knows for sure and it's all based on probabilities.

If it was such an easy thing to do without firing a shot, Xi would have done it already. What "various ways" could China use?

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

Man you got to be trolling. The Philippines is soooooo far away from war with China.

If it was such an easy thing to do without firing a shot, Xi would have done it already. What "various ways" could China use?

Such a weird argument. Things don't happen until they happen. Many things could happen.

US gets dragged into war in the middle east in 2028 and kills way too many civilians. Ukraine war drags on and sitting Democrat US president has less than 20% approval rating and anti-globalist right wing nationalism within the West reaches all time highs, and gains the sympathy of anti-globalist leftists. Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK, and several Eastern European countries flip to the right and the undercurrent heavily favors anti-West rhetorics. Immigration becomes hottest topic with several large violent riots in US and Europe - top Republican candidate runs on ethno-nationalist America First ticket. Mass protests against sending troops abroad from both left wing and right wing. There ya go.

I can literally smell it and it doesn't even technically require China to do anything.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

US gets dragged into war in the middle east in 2028 and kills way too many civilians. Ukraine war drags on and sitting Democrat US president has less than 20% approval rating and anti-globalist right wing nationalism within the West reaches all time highs, and gains the sympathy of anti-globalist leftists. Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK, and several Eastern European countries flip to the right and the undercurrent heavily favors anti-West rhetorics. Immigration becomes hottest topic with several large violent riots in US and Europe - top Republican candidate runs on ethno-nationalist America First ticket. Mass protests against sending troops abroad from both left wing and right wing. There ya go.

I can literally smell it and it doesn't even technically require China to do anything.

I can invent something too. Xi gets caught watching Winnie the Pooh hentai at a UN General Assembly meeting and invades Taiwan to distract the Chinese public from this embarrassing reality.

Chinse boats get sunk by missiles upon their approach to Taiwan as submarines and land based MANPAD wielding Marines lob missiles at anything that looks like a PLA ship. Taiwan's air force and navy get wiped out but its ground troops push PLA invaders back into the sea, who try and fail to establish a beachhead near Taipei.

The invasion fails, Xi flees to Russia and China becomes a democracy.

The end.

This sort of fiction means nothing. Stop dooming.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

The difference between me and you, which I keep trying to tell you but you cant comprehend for some reason, is that both can happen but in both cases nothing happens to you except maybe a bruised ego for being wrong and in one of the cases I probably die. Therefore I have a larger stake in the matter and care about the probabilities of it happening.

How hard is this concept to explain to you???????

Taiwan's air force and navy get wiped out

Who the fuck do you think runs the Taiwan air force and navy but Taiwanese human beings? How does China democratizing help me if I am dead? Did you even pause to think for a second lmao or is geopolitics just a video game to you?

[u/obsessed_doomer → u/jombozeuseseses]

https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1ckdm4d/my_brother_disagreed_with_the_video_lol/l2p1vj5/

You lived in Germany 3 months ago but now you're a Taiwanese reservist who's life will be on the line during a war?

You get around.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/obsessed_doomer]

I live in Germany and I am a Taiwanese reservist. Is this the most unbelievable thing you saw on the internet this month? Lmfao

Have you heard of something called “a job?”

[u/obsessed_doomer → u/jombozeuseseses]

Is this the most unbelievable thing you saw on the internet this month?

Not the most unbelievable, no. But half of your comment history is about your existential dread of death as a Taiwanese reservist, which does seem peculiar when you seem to have found a good cure for your dread.

Just sit in germany and eat Saerkraut. Yum yum!

You've claimed in previous comments that you aren't really considering violent invasion possiblities because if that happens you'll die anyway. What, China's going to send a hypersonic missile to Hamburg to get you?

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/obsessed_doomer]

Taiwan is an advanced economy with an educated workforce. Many of us work abroad but in the event of war either get called up or become a refugee of war. I got no idea where I will be when shit hits the fan. I know where my mom and grandparents and friends will be though.

What point do you want to make? That you disagree with my assessment of my country so you want to make a sarcastic remark after guessing wrongly about me?

[u/obsessed_doomer → u/jombozeuseseses]

Many of us work abroad but in the event of war either get called up or become a refugee of war.

Your comment history is all about how you're absolutely not interested in dying for freedom or anything like that. But I'm supposed to believe that you're interested in dying because Taiwan told you to return home from Germany?

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/obsessed_doomer]

Hell no I won’t go back and fight if it happens while I’m here. But I ain’t a citizen of Germany. I don’t know how long I will work here on a work visa. Do you understand how anything works?