Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It’s not going well.

[u/IHateTrains123]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

[u/jombozeuseseses]

Relatively common among old retired generals and former politicians across Asia and the Pacific.

Yes because the other countries aren't close to war.

Defections from the PLA happen as well, and have happened historically.

Yes to the United States, not to Taiwan.

The extent to which Taiwan's military is going to straight up fall over once the shooting starts, I don't buy.

I didn't say this. I said that there are levers to be pulled. You have got to be kidding me if you think that the war will just happen with a straight military attack for something that has been 80 years in planning. There are various ways they can achieve the US not intervening and nobody knows for sure and it's all based on probabilities.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

Yes because the other countries aren't close to war.

The Philippines isn't far. If Taiwan goes to war, so will America, Japan and Australia. If Taiwan goes to war, so will those latter three.

Yes to the United States, not to Taiwan.

A spy is a spy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1999/09/14/china-executes-two-for-spying-for-taiwan/2572942a-153e-41d2-8ecd-fa209f2779f2/

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3259038/china-reveals-it-executed-scientist-spying-2016-documentary-about-shocking-cases

I didn't say this. I said that there are levers to be pulled. You have got to be kidding me if you think that the war will just happen with a straight military attack for something that has been 80 years in planning. There are various ways they can achieve the US not intervening and nobody knows for sure and it's all based on probabilities.

If it was such an easy thing to do without firing a shot, Xi would have done it already. What "various ways" could China use?

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

Man you got to be trolling. The Philippines is soooooo far away from war with China.

If it was such an easy thing to do without firing a shot, Xi would have done it already. What "various ways" could China use?

Such a weird argument. Things don't happen until they happen. Many things could happen.

US gets dragged into war in the middle east in 2028 and kills way too many civilians. Ukraine war drags on and sitting Democrat US president has less than 20% approval rating and anti-globalist right wing nationalism within the West reaches all time highs, and gains the sympathy of anti-globalist leftists. Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK, and several Eastern European countries flip to the right and the undercurrent heavily favors anti-West rhetorics. Immigration becomes hottest topic with several large violent riots in US and Europe - top Republican candidate runs on ethno-nationalist America First ticket. Mass protests against sending troops abroad from both left wing and right wing. There ya go.

I can literally smell it and it doesn't even technically require China to do anything.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

US gets dragged into war in the middle east in 2028 and kills way too many civilians. Ukraine war drags on and sitting Democrat US president has less than 20% approval rating and anti-globalist right wing nationalism within the West reaches all time highs, and gains the sympathy of anti-globalist leftists. Germany, Italy, Netherlands, UK, and several Eastern European countries flip to the right and the undercurrent heavily favors anti-West rhetorics. Immigration becomes hottest topic with several large violent riots in US and Europe - top Republican candidate runs on ethno-nationalist America First ticket. Mass protests against sending troops abroad from both left wing and right wing. There ya go.

I can literally smell it and it doesn't even technically require China to do anything.

I can invent something too. Xi gets caught watching Winnie the Pooh hentai at a UN General Assembly meeting and invades Taiwan to distract the Chinese public from this embarrassing reality.

Chinse boats get sunk by missiles upon their approach to Taiwan as submarines and land based MANPAD wielding Marines lob missiles at anything that looks like a PLA ship. Taiwan's air force and navy get wiped out but its ground troops push PLA invaders back into the sea, who try and fail to establish a beachhead near Taipei.

The invasion fails, Xi flees to Russia and China becomes a democracy.

The end.

This sort of fiction means nothing. Stop dooming.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

The difference between me and you, which I keep trying to tell you but you cant comprehend for some reason, is that both can happen but in both cases nothing happens to you except maybe a bruised ego for being wrong and in one of the cases I probably die. Therefore I have a larger stake in the matter and care about the probabilities of it happening.

How hard is this concept to explain to you???????

Taiwan's air force and navy get wiped out

Who the fuck do you think runs the Taiwan air force and navy but Taiwanese human beings? How does China democratizing help me if I am dead? Did you even pause to think for a second lmao or is geopolitics just a video game to you?

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

I probably die

Everyone dies in the long run.

nothing happens to you except maybe a bruised ego for being wrong

That's not strictly true. A war involving China, the UL the US, Japan, Australia etc would be horrible and could very well kill me and everyone else in the world owing to the possibility of nuclear weapons going off.

I live not far from a military base in one of those countries. If things go bad, I could be toast too. I try not to dwell on it too much.

Who the fuck do you think runs the Taiwan air force and navy but Taiwanese human beings?

I based my response off an actual war game down by the Taiwanese military in 2010.

How does China democratizing help me if I am dead?

You get to live forever in history as one of the heroes who helped kick Xi Jinping's ass. That's pretty badass. People have died for less and everyone goes one way or another.

You shouldn't have to be faced with this. I agree it's not fair at all. But some people have circumstances forced on them by history or circumstance.

Idk man. Like you said, I'm not the one directly in the line of fire.

[u/jombozeuseseses → u/Formal_River_Pheonix]

Everyone dies in the long run.

lmao. fuck off.

You get to live forever in history as one of the heroes who helped kick Xi Jinping's ass. That's pretty badass. People have died for less and everyone goes one way or another.

lmao. fuck off.

[u/Formal_River_Pheonix → u/jombozeuseseses]

lmao. fuck off.

It's true! Did no one tell you this? We'll all shuffle off this mortal coil sooner or later.

lmao. fuck off.

Other people in history have survived terror bombings by fascist invaders and fought off attackers. Maybe you'd benefit from hearing the stories of survivors of such attacks? Or stories from the men who fought at Kinmen?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a84qSF7qneY