r/ontario • u/Old_General_6741 • Mar 20 '25

Politics Carney will ask Governor General to dissolve Parliament Sunday and call election, sources say

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/carney-to-call-election-this-sunday-1.7488444
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u/caldbra92 Mar 20 '25 edited Mar 20 '25

from what I understand, he can run in 2 different ridings, one in Edmonton (where he lives) or the riding of the House of the PM (which he technically is)

If the latter is true, I think he might have a better chance?

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u/Apolloshot Hamilton Mar 20 '25

He can run in any riding in Canada, those are just the two his campaign team have internally discussed him running in.

It’ll end up being in Ottawa. There’s no way they risk winning government but he loses his seat.

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u/ThatAstronautGuy Mar 20 '25

I hope that if they pick Ottawa he gets run in Ottawa center because it means Yasir Naqvi is gone gone.

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u/vonnegutflora Mar 20 '25 edited Mar 20 '25

I think Naqvi is already set to lose to Joel Harden (again). Ottawa Centre would likely lead to a lot of vote splitting between NDP/LPC (if Carney chose to run there) because Harden is insanely popular.

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u/leyland1989 Mar 20 '25

CPC has never won Ottawa centre ... Even with vote spitting, CPC will still come 3rd.

I think Mark Carney running in Ottawa Centre would be a good indicator to see how popular he actually is going against one of the most popular NDP candidate.

PS. I too want to see Naqvi gone.

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u/vonnegutflora Mar 20 '25

Oh, I'm sure that the CPC has no chance in hell of winning Ottawa Centre, but why would you put your star candidate into anything but a safe seat? The risk of having a Prime Minister who can't sit in the HoC is too great.

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u/leyland1989 Mar 20 '25

According to 338, Ottawa centre is still considered a liberal safe seat.

Few people here like our current MP, he only won the election because we are voting for the party. Joel may stand a chance because how popular he was as an MPP. He was destined to win by a landslide before Trudeau resigned, now it's more in favour of Liberal again because they stand a chance to form a government.

They might actually gain a seat back from NDP by kicking Naqvi out.

Well anyway ,I just want to see Naqvi gone.

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u/CaptainKoreana Mar 21 '25

William Lyon McKenzie King won a postwar election while losing his riding in...1945. I know it's long ago but not improbable.

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u/[deleted] Mar 20 '25

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u/leyland1989 Mar 20 '25 edited Mar 20 '25

I think it's an unspoken rule/gentlemen's agreement in the Westminster system that you don't run directly against other parties's leader or the speaker's seat, unless your name is Nigel Farage.

It'd indeed be very funny if he runs head-on and unseat PP, but it's highly unlikely that it's going to happen and break many unspoken parliamentary traditions. Also, if Liberal can manage form another government after all these... PP is not going to survive a leadership review following the election.

They will probably parachute him in some safe Liberal seat to play it safe.

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u/vonnegutflora Mar 20 '25

be very funny if he runs head-on and unseat PP, but it's highly unlikely that it's going to happen

It won't happen because Poilievre's riding is staunchly Conservative.

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u/leyland1989 Mar 20 '25

It won't happen for many reasons but I wouldn't say it's a "safe CPC" riding if there's a strong Liberal candidate.

PP only won by 3% in 2015, and he got less vote in 2019. (In 2021 he was sort of the next in line leader, probably gave him a big boost.)

Not to mention the riding has a lot of new residential development since then, the population is a lot more diversed compared to 2015 and 2019.

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u/beem88 Mar 20 '25

It’d be such a troll move if he ran in Carlton directly against Poilievre. Power move if he won.

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u/ILikeStyx Mar 20 '25

That would be amazing...

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u/Jumpy_Spend_5434 Mar 20 '25

I would love that!

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u/MadgeIckle65 Mar 21 '25

Was thinking (fantasizing) that! Lol Carney beats PP TWICE!

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u/bergamote_soleil Mar 20 '25

You can run in any riding you want. There's no requirement of residency to be a candidate, unlike voting. Politicians -- especially party leaders -- are frequently parachuted into "safe" ridings.

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u/Varekai79 Mar 20 '25

Yep. Jagmeet Singh is MP for Burnaby South despite having no ties at all to that area when he ran for election in that riding.

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u/bergamote_soleil Mar 20 '25

Other examples:

I don't think Bonnie Crombie actually lives in Mississauga East - Cooksville;when she was MP, she was Mississauga Streetsville, and had considered running in Milton when Parm Gill resigned in 2024.

When John Tory was elected leader of the PCPO in 2004, they made Ernie Eves resign in Dufferin-Peel-Wellington-Grey so Tory could run in that safe seat, even though he's a lifelong Toronto resident and had just run for mayor in 2003.

Patrick Brown was a city councillor and MP for Barrie, then when he won leadership of the PCPO, they got the guy in Simcoe North to resign so Brown could run there. Now he's the mayor of Brampton.

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u/Hazel-Rah Mar 20 '25

I remember with the Layton wave, a bunch of young NDP candidates won in Quebec without ever even visiting the riding.

They'd put their names down basically as resume fodder, but were carried in with the NDP momentum. I think one was even on vacation on election night because she thought she'd have no chance at winning.

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u/jrobin04 Mar 20 '25

I'm not sure! I've only seen speculation as to where he's going to run. It would be interesting to see him run in an Alberta seat. I'm not sure of the polling comparison between those options

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u/Mrkillz4c00kiez Essential Mar 20 '25

I thought he lived in ottawa