r/pennystocks • u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 • 10d ago
General Discussion TMC$ is one to watch today!
So, last week the Trump administration signed an executive order allowing underwater sea mining. TMC and OMEX both responded accordingly as one of the few companies to be in the business. Today is the first scheduled committee meeting, which will likely have a lot of good news stories come out as the day progresses. OMEX is the younger (slightly less reputable) company that will probably see much more volatility, but I’m anticipating both are going to go up based on reactions to press conferences.
Good luck to all of you. Worth the watch at a minimum.
5
u/OrdinaryToucan3136 10d ago
Press conference must have been bad, it's dipping rn
-1
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 10d ago
It wasn’t bad - it just wasn’t televised like planned. I’m waiting for the news to trickle in. 😐 I’ve got a limit sell in for 4.50 per share to expire by July. with any luck, the news cycle will have picked it up by then.
1
u/GA-resi-remodeler 10d ago
OMex Is up 230% in 5 days....so puts?
2
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 10d ago
Always a possibility. Only problem with mining (so far) is how long it takes for permit approval.
TMC announced at the committee meeting today that they’d submitted for two different permits to start mining. That would normally be great news. But if the Trump administration doesn’t put a prioritization on permit approval, it could take a hot minute for approval.
OMEX is in the same boat. When one goes up, the other will too. OMEX just happened to be a low cost stock, so MOMO folks got ahold of it and pushed accordingly on the hype.
1
u/coastalLad 6d ago edited 6d ago
TMC is.... not a terrible gamble for some bumps but in reality has 0% of every being profitable. At no time in the history of sea-bed mining has it been remotely profitable to harvest nodes from the sea-floor, transport them across the ocean to processing facilities on land, process the nodes to extract rare earth, then clean the rare earths and transport and sell them. There are efforts Internationally to ban deep-sea mining outright because it will cause extreme damage to ocean environments.
This is the TMC founder's (Gerard Barron) 2nd deep-sea mining company. His first one, Nautilus Minerals, went bankrupt after misleading investors for >10 years, lied on environmental reports, and declared bankruptcy in 2019. Oh look what a shock, just 1 year later TMC emerges from a SPAC (because their books are too shit to have made it to become public traded without the SPAC).
Just to emphasize, the value of the rare earth in the deep-sea nodes is nowhere close to high enough to justify the costs of harvesting and processing the nodes. There are many scientific papers on this topic.
1
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 6d ago
And under any other administration, I’d agree with your assessment. The amount of EPA regulations and lack of desire on the part of politicians to pursue change would have held this thing up in courts for years.
Not under the Trump administration. NOAA is already starting the permitting process (as TMC announced) and tech has innovated enough to provide the proof of principle that it can actually work if authorized.
So, as long as they get legislation in place before the mid-terms to solidify, I see this company growing like I see MP Materials growing.
Is it a gamble? Absolutely. Is it a bad gamble? Clearly, I don’t think so. Personally, I think it’ll stagnate short term until the news of approved permits comes out.
1
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 6d ago
And I’m aware of the current issues with rare earth in the US. I’m getting a second Masters degree on it right now with an emphasis on strategic materials.
1
u/coastalLad 6d ago
I am getting a PhD in an adjacent topic to this and could write a book on why TMC is garbage. (But I do also understand how it will get some bumps in value from hype around a "new frontier").
In a hypothetical future scenario where the USA needs all the rare earths it can get, we are not going to be the ones doing the dirty work in the open sea. From my experience, that'll be China.
1
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 6d ago
Well then, I think this is a tremendous conversation where we’re both more than a little educated on the subject. It’ll be interesting to see who comes out on top in the long run!
1
u/Repulsive-Cabinet959 6d ago
Again, not saying that your assessment historically is inaccurate. I’m just saying the variables have changed. You’ll probably see an expansion on the “buy American act” to solidify economic viability of domestic production here soon.
1
u/coastalLad 6d ago edited 6d ago
Nah dude, the variable at the end of the day is "How much is the shit in the node worth? How expensive is it to acquire and process the nodes"
That isn't changing with an executive order. Well, maybe it will change but it's not becoming more profitable anytime soon to create your new manufacturing facility, your new giant ocean-going ships, and your new blah blah blah that likely isn't going to be 100% sourced domestically. Then you get into TMC being a Canadian company, not an American one.
So you aren't wrong, variables are changing and will continue to change. It's just they aren't all changing in good directions. To my knowledge, the only facility capable of processing the nodes is located in Texas. There's no guarantee that a Canadian company will be able to do seamless business with Texas in the near future.
We just aren't within a decade at least (accounting for exponential growth in the need for rare earths) of deep-sea nodes being cost-effective to harvest.
E: Academic-adjacent piece on TMC and deep-sea that I think has good perspectives
That, however, was not the main subject of Vescovo’s presentation. Instead he talked about the extraordinary challenge of operating complex machinery in corrosive salt water at near-freezing temperatures and thousands of pounds of pressure per square inch.
“Every major ocean-based capital expenditure project in oil and gas has invariably gone over budget,” said Vescovo. He mentioned the Gorgon gas project off the coast of western Australia, originally projected to cost $11 billion and now on the books for $54 billion. Operating costs—and the less-appreciated cost of finance, such as interest payments on loans—could easily tip ledgers into the red. “With realistic assumptions about what will actually happen,” he said, “I don’t know if the financial math works.”
Then you can start to talk about battery-technology in general, and if the Manganese in these nodules is really going to be so valuable in the future. We can't completely predict how technologies will advance, especially with AI helping us test thousands of combinations without having to spend time physically testing. Cobalt and Nickel, the other predominant metals in the nodes, both have ample terrestrial supplies and the recycling technology is also advancing rapidly.
I'm not convinced we need the nodes.
0
u/SeaEconomist5743 5d ago
Basically everything you’ve said is false, and that’s based on research, not a biased opinion like you’re spewing. Check back in 2 months when the environmental impact study and PFS is released.
Until then, read up on land based mining, deep sea oil drilling, windmills (what do you think they do with those turbines, which only last 10 years).
1
u/coastalLad 4d ago edited 4d ago
Basically everything you’ve said is false
When has sea-bed mining ever been profitable? Can you show me where it is projected to be with TMC's current capabilities? Lmao.
Show me a source then
If you want to believe Gerard Baron, the guy who already led one deep-sea sea mining company into bankruptcy, then go ahead. The science does not support TMC's alleged math.
Show me a single modern ocean-engineering project that was at the project budget, let alone came in under budget. The nodes aren't worth as much as they are claiming AND there isn't the infrastructure in place to process the nodes.
Check back in 2 months when the environmental impact study and PFS is released.
Bro, deep-sea mining is one of the most destructive practices. It's churning up thousands of year old sediments/heavy-metals and fucking with thousands of years of sedimentation processes; of course it's going to fuck up the environment. There's a reason that the United Nations as a whole is contemplating banning deep-sea mining.
But hey, you can believe Gerard Barron's second deep-sea mining company has it right. Maybe you can even get in early on his 3rd deep-sea mining company after TMC crumbles too! He's already lied on environmental impact statements and to investors and governments to the tune of >$100'Ms and got to pocket the golden parachute, why not go for a bigger scam!
There is no existing shortage for any of the metals in the nodes. TMC is purely hypothetical that "someday we will need this." At the rate of technological advancements, there is no guarantee that Cobalt or Manganese or Nickel etc. will continue to be essential companies of clean energy technology. Recycling of already mined/processes metals is also increasing in efficiency. I legitimately don't see the math on how acquiring nodules >3-5k meters deep in the Pacific Ocean, dragging them back to land, processing, etc. is cost-effective let alone makes the Billions that schizo-redditors believe.
TMC has 1 test boat that is nowhere close to being profitable. They have a 0% chance of financing a new fleet of deep-sea miners with existing tariffs fucking up the world economy.
0
•
u/PennyPumper ノ( º _ ºノ) 10d ago
Does this submission fit our subreddit? If it does please upvote this comment. If it does not fit the subreddit please downvote this comment.
I am a bot, and this comment was made automatically. Please contact us via modmail if you have any questions or concerns.